Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Reciprocity]

10 months faster than other constructions! That is a lot.

Thats unprecedented and shows the influence Tesla has and the strong backing of the Shanghai officials.

Already posted (Thanks!) but some more details and information.....

Vincent‏ @vincent13031925
1. Chinese gov media CCTV reported: Construction company said they speeding up the @Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory project and did not receive the Lunar New Year holiday notice. Official video link: http://tv.cctv.com/v/v1/VIDEFRUe46kMgZOLQUg98aOM190124.html … $TSLA #Tesla #China #TeslaChina #GF3 #特斯拉

11:37 PM - 24 Jan 2019

1. 1. 21m21 minutes ago
      2. Chen Jie, Shanghai Lingang Development & Construction Mgt Committee: In order to speed up the @Tesla Shanghai GF3 construction, the Shanghai Lingang Gov changed the construction approval. Normal approval takes 15 months & #Tesla project only took 5 months. $TSLA #TeslaChina
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      Vincent on Twitter

Those are some crappy small cranes, they can't lift anything very high. Elon is just digging a hole to hide all the model 3s that they can't sell.

Edit: is what Fudsters will say...

 

[avoigt]

Talking about efficiency: $500 for driving 25,000 miles.

Thats amazing! $2 for 100 miles. In Germany I paid with my old ICE car about $32 for 100 miles.

The Model 3 is 16 times cheaper in driving 100 miles..... Thats incredible. Any questions about demand in Europe?

When people wake up and finally realize how much they can save they will embrace BEVs and never return.


13h13 hours ago
Only 6400kw to drive 25,000 miles in our @Tesla Model3. For my non EV friends, we charge at home every evening for .08 cents Kw which is just over $500 in electricity

Can’t wait to add our Tesla Power Wall and solar. Thank You @elonmusk !

27 replies57 retweets657 likes
Twitter. It's what's happening.

 

[Intl Professor]

Note that ICE sales are collapsing in China largely unrelated to the trade war, while the EV market is exploding in size, due to the Chinese government aggressively supporting the EV market to improve air quality, and to reduce China's dependence on oil:

New Car Sales In China Fell 5.8% In 2018 | CleanTechnica

China Amazes With 180,000 Plug-In Electric Car Sales In December​

Note that even the CleanTechnica article about 2018 has not highlighted that ICE sales are literally collapsing: if we take out EV sales from all car sale then in November ICE sales collapsed -14% year-over-year, while EV sales grew 59% year-over-year, taking over 7% of all new car sales:

China Has Record Electric Car Sales Month, BYD Tang #1 — #CleanTechnica Report | CleanTechnica
6.3% Plug-In Vehicle Market Share In China! — #CleanTechnica Electric Car Sales Report | CleanTechnica​

It's absolutely brutal, and ICE makers simply cannot convert their production facilities this fast, without running into losses.

Over 7% of all new cars are EVs, ICE sales down -14%. I.e. there's about -7% of market loss to EVs, while another -7% market loss to car purchasers who are deferring their car purchase.

There is a reason some of us consider this to be the Chinese century as the last was the U.S.'

 

[shlokavica22]

China is in many ways still a dictatorship ruled by technocrats, where 90%+ of the high level Chinese leaders have a stellar educational background in engineering or sciences.

Yeah, no-one cares about "witch" hunt arrests over 9 felonies that bring years of prison time, which felonies were committed to try to hide other felonies with decades of prison time.

.
.
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Move on, absolutely nothing to see here, it's all a big nothing-burger of money laundering, treason, conspiracy, witness tampering, witness intimidation and perjury!

Brought to you by former FBI president Robert Mueller, who served in Vietnam voluntarily, while Donald Trump got a "medial exemption" due to mysterious "bone spurs" that not even Stormy Daniels has seen on Donald Trump, a medial diagnosis created a doctor who happened to be a tenant of Fred Trump.

Very curious discrepancy between your view towards China, Trump and lastly- your nickname. Some might say- biased.

 

[avoigt]

For raw data geeks, the EU demand metrics to watch over the spring is this community-maintained spreadsheet:

Tesla Model 3: Europa Bestellungen/Europe Orders​

In particular on the "Orders per country" sheet, the last column is very helpfully listing "Market penetration", which shows how much upwards potential there is still for Tesla. For Norway and Switzerland there's 935 and 171 Model 3 orders per 1 million citizens - market penetration is reasonably high.

The two biggest markets: Germany and France have a market penetration of 38 and 18 Model 3 orders per 1 million citizens, which is very low, and which I'm sure will increase over the spring as the weather is getting better and more test-drives are available.

German customers for example do not like to buy new cars in the winter unless they are offered at steep discounts. Winter brings a higher risk of fender-bender accidents with your shiny new car in dense urban traffic, and there's also all the winter slush you'll bring in to the new carpet and the car will be dirty all day as well. When the roads start drying up in March-May is when new car sales are ticking up.

The data is reasonably reliable, because it only depends on the serially increasing invoice number the EU mandates. So the largest invoice number reported (as long as it's not an outlier) should be a good lower limit for number of outstanding orders. (Assuming low order cancellation rates.)

Another interesting information ASP is about $74k (includes VAT). 84% P model and 73% EAP.

 

[Fact Checking]

Another interesting information ASP is about $74k (includes VAT)

Yes, Tesla will have to pay in the VAT from that, so net ASP is around $60k - roughly in line with Q3 ASP.

 

[Fact Checking]

Very curious discrepancy between your view towards China, Trump and lastly- your nickname. Some might say- biased.

Yeah, I know, facts have a liberal bias.

(And, as usual, I'm willing to defend my viewpoints if any discrepancies are outlined in detail, and will adjust them constantly if my logic is flawed or when new data arrives. For now I don't see any big discrepancy between my China views and Trump views.)

Also, polarizing political views notwithstanding I've got plenty of conservative friends and fully accept that it's a valid way to view life. So please forgive the needling over Trump, who's not the ... most stellar demonstration of conservative values I believe.

 

[Pezpunk]

The merit of the Taycan née Mission-E lies in staking Porsche's claim to future relevance [they get to live another day], but also in truly "legitimizing" EVs in Germany. Sad but so, I think. Should work for Tesla.

right. let some companies OTHER than Tesla do some of the heavy lifting of convincing people EVs are viable. at the very least, it gets companies like Porsche etc to stop spreading anti-EV FUD.

 

[keydiver]

How big a deal is no lunar new year holiday in China? Is this something that is skipped for something moderately important or only high priority projects?

Very big. EVERY manufacturer that I deal with in China is completely shut down from February 3rd thru the 13th. Most employees travel back home to the country for the holiday. I have never heard of any exceptions like this before.

 

[Fact Checking]

let some companies OTHER than Tesla do al lthe heavy lifting of convincing people EVs are viable.

The biggest ICE carmakers started advertising EVs in Europe, and it will have a big effect on consumers I believe.

For example here's Mercedes doing free advertising on behalf of Tesla, demonstrating advantages of EVs during road trips:

 

[JRP3]

OT

There's an idea, recommend this option instead of bashing Tesla. I've always made out like a bandit (not my dog in this case) by being friendly, like offering a solution and showing empathy for their growing pains here.

Just an advice.

Right, I'm a long time irrational Tesla basher

To be clear, pointing out actual flaws in the company is not bashing. Keep your head in the sand at your own risk.

 

[avoigt]

Demand issues?

(...) Alpha Hat’s data for the first couple weeks of the year shows that Tesla continues to deliver a surprisingly healthy number of vehicles in the US. As of 1/13, we believe that Tesla has delivered approximately 6,050 vehicles in the US, with ~5,000 being Model 3s. This compares to 6,800 vehicles (5,500 Model 3s) in the first 13 days of the previous quarter according to our data. While Q1 trails Q4 by 10–11% so far, we are surprised that Tesla has been able to deliver even this level of volume given the big delivery push prior to the new year and the expiry of the full federal EV tax credit. (...)

https://blog.alphahat.com/teslas-us-q1-deliveries-are-surprisingly-high-so-far-e87cd1df54f8

P.S. lets take into account that Q1 is always weak versus Q4 and most importantly all the 3s that are on ships to Europe and China right now.

Thanks @Ellec

 

[Fact Checking]

Talking about efficiency: $500 for driving 25,000 miles.

Thats amazing! $2 for 100 miles. In Germany I paid with my old ICE car about $32 for 100 miles.

The Model 3 is 16 times cheaper in driving 100 miles..... Thats incredible. Any questions about demand in Europe?

Just some quick math: that's about $7,500 of savings in 25,000 miles of driving.

$7,500 seems to be a popular number in EV calculations.

Mod: Fixed 0 for you.
edit: Thank you mod!

 

[UncaNed]

. I have a hunch we may eventually see both a five and a longer seven seater.

Longer versions of existing autos are a great way to leverage any design into other markets. Same cross section, so same air resistance, vastly increased comfort and utility if my Model X had just a couple more inches between rows and in the back for cargo, almost no effect on driving and parking... Perhaps an even more extended "delivery van" version. I think I read that there was a market for "chauffeured offices" with more room in back in china too.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Just some quick math: that's about $7,500 of savings in 25,000 miles of driving.

$7,500 seems to be a popular number in EV calculations.

Mod: Fixed 0 for you.
edit: Thank you mod!

How so? 25,000 miles at 25/mpg = 1,000 gallons x $4/gal = $4,000, or $3,500 in savings.

 

[theschnell]

Yeah, I know, facts have a liberal bias.

(And, as usual, I'm willing to defend my viewpoints if any discrepancies are outlined in detail, and will adjust them constantly if my logic is flawed or when new data arrives. For now I don't see any big discrepancy between my China views and Trump views.)

Also, polarizing political views notwithstanding I've got plenty of conservative friends and fully accept that it's a valid way to view life. So please forgive the needling over Trump, who's not the ... most stellar demonstration of conservative values I believe.

Best OT post EVER!!!!!!!

 

[anthonyj]

Talking about efficiency: $500 for driving 25,000 miles.

Thats amazing! $2 for 100 miles. In Germany I paid with my old ICE car about $32 for 100 miles.

The Model 3 is 16 times cheaper in driving 100 miles..... Thats incredible. Any questions about demand in Europe?

When people wake up and finally realize how much they can save they will embrace BEVs and never return.


13h13 hours ago
Only 6400kw to drive 25,000 miles in our @Tesla Model3. For my non EV friends, we charge at home every evening for .08 cents Kw which is just over $500 in electricity

Can’t wait to add our Tesla Power Wall and solar. Thank You @elonmusk !

27 replies57 retweets657 likes
Twitter. It's what's happening.

In NJ I’m getting 600 wh/mi. Still about half the price of gas

 

[NicoV]

Where do these ads run? I don't watch TV.

Local (major) commercial TV stations in Belgium (and probably also in the neighbouring countries).

 

[AlexS]

Sorry guys but, why do you vote up Sean's question. Tesla absolutely understands the problem with service capacity why do you want to give shorts real thing to scream about?

Say

I hope Elon will tweet something about service improvement before the ER, so this question will not be asked.

And after you will be getting better service in US, please post and make videos about it. I can see that from RichRebuild comments that people are canceling and are afraid of ordering used Teslas. Youtube is very powerful tool these days.

Maybe someone from US can tell if anything has changed already in January? after they finished quarter end sales push?

 

[UncaNed]

Local (major) commercial TV stations in Belgium (and probably also in the neighbouring countries).

I don't watch TV either.