Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Okay - I have said this before and it didn't go down well.
1) Tesla are accelerating sustainable transport
and
2) In some cases decelerating sustainable transport

The IPace is too ambitious IMO. They felt like they could and should take on Tesla directly and beat them at their own game without 10 years prior experience. They have done a great job but sometimes getting 90% towards your target means falling into the chasm. A Defender replacement (like Bollinger) would have allowed JLR to experiment without any embarrassment whatsoever. Hyundai and Taycan news today backs this up further. If these guys can't make a profit, I don't see them wholeheartedly going for it. We predicted they would be in a pickle - we were right. If they collectively have a shareholder's backlash that stops them investing - they will all be doomed. They have a long way down before they can start rising from the ashes - best to start now or wait? If Tesla hadn't been as good, they would be making profit and investing further. I realise that this is not what most of you think, but I just have to say it again to get it off my chest.

For sure. They must know that EVs are the future, but they have to deal with the inevitable profit crash that will happen if they go full EV (and the resulting loss of executive bonuses).

Releasing cars in low volume, long periods of teasing before cars come to market etc. are all just hedging. They seem to want some EV experience and street cred without upending their entire business.

 

[Fact Checking]

OT
Presumably Tesla can export from China if needed - China presumably have low tariffs with some countries that would be an advantage over Freemont. Plus the reduced costs.

That's a possibility, but Tesla strongly indicated that they don't intend to do it, and there's several good reasons for that.

This is how German carmakers are approaching global markets as well: assemble lower price point versions locally, which allows the adoption of local standards and local customer preferences to a higher degree, but import the highest margin variants to maintain a global brand image.

BTW., I believe Elon indicated that their Chinese production could be sold in the Asian-Pacific region - but that's probably the maximum extent of market coverage.

 

[shootformoon]

MODERATOR:

House-cleaning Friday.

As in -

1. If someone posts an egregious "Political Only" post here, that does NOT give you carte blanche to respond, other than via the specific post "Take it to 'Political' where you will see my response". This is regardless of whether you think 95% of readers agree with your sentiments or whether you are on a mission to demonstrate why you've the only sane head in a room full of loonytunes.
2. Too many of you make far too frequent use of acronyms and abbreviations (they're not the same). Even those of us who read every single post here cannot keep up with them: they are industry-, location-, or generation-specific, they are ones you and you alone use, they have different meanings (whyohwhy do abbreviation-loving posters keep referring to General Motors when discussing Tesla's upcoming earnings announcement?, for example). Those who are destined to the 6th Circle of Hell are those who write in a post something on the order of TIMOI (This is my own idea) and then NEVER make use of that abbreviation again! If abuse of readers' eyes were a felony, you'd get 50 to Life.

Carry on.

Could we add a rating button "off topic/not belong here"? Then apply a rule like: if a post has more than 10 ratings and more than 50% are off topic, then it could be automatically moved to some staging area where mod can decide its place. I believe this could reduce the mod's work load substantially.

 

[humbaba]

so what is max pain for today?

 

[KarenRei]

Voted my shares for this question, hopefully Elon actually picks from here: Say

Don't like it. Questions about customer service are good, but remember, earnings calls are public, and the stock reacts to what people hear. Try to take a more positive tone when asking about the issue - reduced emphasis on the present (one mention that the situation needs improvement is enough) and the dangers of not doing anything (they know - believe me, it's impossible for them to not hear people complaining), and more on the future (so that Tesla can talk up their plans; it's our call as to whether we believe them).

We don't want the headline to be "Retail Investors Complaining About Their Terrible Service Experiences On Tesla Earnings Call".

 

[Curt Renz]

so what is max pain for today?

$300 according to: Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

 

[KarenRei]

so what is max pain for today?

"Stung by a bullet ant", just like every day

(J/K - it's $300)

 

[AWDtsla]

Don't like it. Questions about customer service are good, but remember, earnings calls are public, and the stock reacts to what people hear. Try to take a more positive tone when asking about the issue - reduced emphasis on the present (one mention that the situation needs improvement is enough) and the dangers of not doing anything (they know - believe me, it's impossible for them to not hear people complaining), and more on the future (so that Tesla can talk up their plans; it's our call as to whether we believe them).

We don't want the headline to be "Retail Investors Complaining About Their Terrible Service Experiences On Tesla Earnings Call".

You know what else is public? When famous youtubers with hundreds of thousands of millions of subscribers documenting these problems.

This needs to be addressed ASAP. Hiding this stuff doesn't work.

 

[Buckminster]

Sources suggest BMW is considering two drivetrain options for the i4. The first uses a front-mounted electric motor in combination with a fixed ratio gearbox and an electric propeller shaft to channel drive to the rear wheels. This layout would give the i4 traditional BMW traits and, according to one source, the best possible weight distribution.

This is brilliant - BMW positively looking to find a way of adding back the complexity into an ICE. More moving parts - more maintenance profit! The genii of Munich...

 

[Fact Checking]

We don't want the headline to be "Retail Investors Complaining About Their Terrible Service Experiences On Tesla Earnings Call".

I predict that we'll be reading worse headlines: Tesla growth stopped, no demand, yadda, yadda.

As it is I agree with @neroden that there's currently a problem of escalating negative outliers of customer experience up the food chain. Maybe if Elon is embarrassed on an earnings call something might happen as a response.

Worst case outcome is not more FUD, but that retail investors won't be getting a seat and a question at the next ER.

 

[KarenRei]

You know what else is public? When famous youtubers with hundreds of thousands of millions of subscribers documenting these problems.

Wow, and I'm TOTALLY sure Tesla hasn't noticed this. (/snark)

 

[Nocturnal]

Regarding the worries about Demand, I think some level of advertising would be smart. I don't know about you guys but every person I talk to seems to think that model 3s are "cars for rich people" or "90/100k". I tell people that they can get one in the low 40s and a 35k version soonish and I get blank looks. (assuming that there has been a drop in demand which I don't think is much to speak of)

 

[Jovian]

Damn the website goes down for extended periods pretty regularly, there's gotta be a way to fix this?

On another topic, didn't catch up with the thread today yet but wanted to share this in case it hasn't been posted here:

Say <--- Post investor questions here for Tesla

explanation here from Hyperchange:

 

[KarenRei]

I predict that we'll be reading worse headlines: Tesla growth stopped, no demand, yadda, yadda.

Those would be lies. By contrast, "Retail Investors Complaining About Their Terrible Service Experiences On Tesla Earnings Call" would be true if AWDtsla's question were asked as-is.

The goal of conference call questions isn't to gripe. It's to learn what Tesla's plans are.

 

[ggies07]

Regarding the worries about Demand, I think some level of advertising would be smart. I don't know about you guys but every person I talk to seems to think that model 3s are "cars for rich people" or "90/100k". I tell people that they can get one in the low 40s and a 35k version soonish and I get blank looks. (assuming that there has been a drop in demand which I don't think is much to speak of)

Yep and it should be put in theaters were people have to sit and watch as they are waiting for the movie to start. So tired of seeing those stupid GM commercials.....

 

[avoigt]

The biggest ICE carmakers started advertising EVs in Europe, and it will have a big effect on consumers I believe.

For example here's Mercedes doing free advertising on behalf of Tesla, demonstrating advantages of EVs during road trips:

Thats right and I welcome them putting the ad money on the table to educate consumers who once educated will buy a Tesla.....

Above a massive e-tron booth Audi has build between the two main terminals at the Munich airport

Its even better to see in the video below:

Some more infos:

• They did two test drives and at one of those they had 15 error messages during 1 hour
• Consumption at about -5 degree was about 28 - 32 kw
• Good noise control and suspension
• Price in Germany €105 k ($ 120k)
• 200 units for Germany has been quickly sold off

 

[EVMeister]

Pretty sharp increase in the stock price this past hour, no?

 

[KarenRei]

Pretty sharp increase in the stock price this past hour, no?

I think you must be seeing things. Tesla is doomed because it laid off 7% of its workforce after expanding by 30%, remember? And don't forget, they're cutting the S/X graveyard shift, after switching to only high-margin S/X sales. DOOOM!

I think perhaps the stock is so far in the red that it's wrapped back around and now looks green to our eyes.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Pretty sharp increase in the stock price this past hour, no?

Yep, used that(and a buy this morning at 289.80) to exit from a poorly timed swing trade yesterday. Side note: I had fun with these short term trades over the last few days but they’re way too nerve racking. Going back to just holding long.

 

[jbcarioca]

Remember Tesla is already doing this. As example the MCU has now the same CPU as the Model 3. There were so many changes to the S/X just to mention a few; new onboard charger, own designed steering system, new mcu, new batterypack design etc.

Yes, Tesla is continuously improving S and X, but...
No, Tesla is not redesigning them to take advantage of manufacturing simplification, wiring improvements and supplier/parts procurement changes. Those would involve major design changes that would reduce assembly cost, warranty expense and service needs, as well as give more efficiency, producing higher performance/greater range or both, as probably would happen. The changes thus far have been modest, from a manufacturing perspective and from a running gear perspective.