Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

Almost nobody has air conditioning in France... neither most of public transportation...

Back on Tesla, is there a reason the postponed the ER call? 00:30 will be hard...

Last quarter they also pushed back the call by an hour, to accomodate several analysts who otherwise couldn’t make it in time. They thanked Tesla with lower SP targets.

For us Europeans it is going to be late one. Will take a nap to be able to stay up until 1.30 or 2.00 in the morning.

Too hot to do anything else anyway. 37 degrees today in The Netherlands and 39 expected tomorrow, which will break the record of 38.6 (from 1944). How anyone in their right one can still deny our climate is changing is beyond me. We badly need to stop pumping out so much CO2.

 

[Fact Checking]

For us Europeans it is going to be late one again. Will take a nap to be able to stay up until 1.30 or 2.00 in the morning

Well, the Q2 update letter will be released a few hours before that, usually within the hour after NASDAQ market close, which should at least give some hints whether it's worth staying up late for the conference call.

 

[urarthur]

I have a strong feeling Model Y will start production Q1 2020. They deliberatly said late 2020 to not cannibalize Model 3 sales now.

I recall Elon saying in 2017/2018 ER calls that Model Y production will start in 2019 aspirationaly, but more likely 2020.

 

[Fact Checking]

For any geek who grew up in the 60s, the Batmobile has to be the model for the EV sound. IMHO

(With option to include the squealing tire sound when needed!)

Arguably the sound they used is gas turbine noise, not necessarily the best pick for a Tesla.

(As a plus you'd never know whether what comes from behind the corner is a Tesla or an Abrams A1M1! )

 

[HG Wells]

I have a strong feeling Model Y will start production Q1 2020. They deliberatly said late 2020 to not cannibalize Model 3 sales now.

I recall Elon saying in 2017/2018 ER calls that Model Y production will start in 2019 aspirationaly, but more likely 2020.

If I was Elon Id still not say anything about Y until it was only one or two months away.

 

[Mike Smith]

GM Cruise delays the launch of autonomous ride-share, adds to test fleet

 

[UncaNed]

Another new, interesting Tesla patent that was just granted:

US20190217380 MULTI-DIRECTIONAL UNIBODY CASTING MACHINE FOR A VEHICLE FRAME AND ASSOCIATED METHODS​

This is a unibody casting machine:

View attachment 433152
Note that thing in the center of that machine is a ... car. This is a huge casting machine.

This should reduce the amount of welding robots required ...

Might this huge casting machine be the "giant machine" Jerome was hinting about to @ZachShahan?

Our Interview With Tesla President Jerome Guillen, Part Deux | CleanTechnica

"He also said they are building a giant machine using Tesla’s Grohmann sub-division, something he was clearly eager to share but couldn’t yet talk much about. Hmm. He basically just emphasized that it was a “giant, giant, giant machine” that duplicates everything, is modular, is simple on the modular level, and … is gigantic. We’ll all have to wait a bit longer for more information on that."​

The giant casting machine fits all this: it would be modular (you'd have dozens of such casting machines to scale up a factory), simple on the modular level and put together it is gigantic.

But maybe he was hinting at something else though, covering final assembly as well? In any case it's an intriguing possibility to have full Body In White frames exit this new casting machine.

When did we all get so hoity-toity? Lost wax system not good enough for us any more?

Thinking more about this new casting machine and Elon and Jerome's comments, I think there is a very high probability V1 of this machine will be used for initial Model Y production.

Evidence:

• The patent filed 18 months ago is for a massive flexible casting machine which could make a car body from 1 - 6 castings. Grohmann has a track record of building new equipment much faster than this with the emergency battery module machine development, production and installation cycle only taking months in 2017/18.
• Elon says Model Y will initially be built from 2 aluminium castings and 2 joiners, down from 70 steel and aluminium parts and weldings for Model 3 (This sounds very much like V1 of the new machine). He says this will move to a single casting in the future (sounds like V2 of the new machine)
• In March Jerome said Grohmann is currently building a massive new modular machine. "He also said they are building a giant machine using Tesla’s Grohmann sub-division, something he was clearly eager to share but couldn’t yet talk much about. Hmm. He basically just emphasized that it was a “giant, giant, giant machine” that duplicates everything, is modular, is simple on the modular level, and … is gigantic. We’ll all have to wait a bit longer for more information on that." This sounds very much like the casting machine and if it was already being built in March it should be ready for Model Y.
• In the ride the lightning podcast "Musk told McCaffrey that the longest lead time items for the Model Y are the stamping dies for the exterior body panels, so those were the highest priority items to get nailed down." Notice he specifically says exterior body panels, suggesting there may be no stamping equipment required for all body panels. Presumably some exterior panels will be manufactured separately from the 2 casting piece unibody frame.

Some consequences of this new machine if it is used for Model Y:

• Much less welding robots. Reduces capex and reduces dependence on external manufacturing equipment suppliers (FANUC and KUKA).
• Much less stamping machines. Reduces capex and reduces lead times for new factories.
• Significantly less space required for future car manufacturing lines.
• Modular design for body production allows easier matching to target production levels and less lumpy capex.
• This new process will add risk to the Model Y ramp.
• The Model Y will likely move to an aluminium body, potentially reducing weight.
• Tesla's castings base is in Lathrop where it has recently built a huge new building. There is a chance that a significant part of the Y production could take place at Lathrop with new Grohmann machines. The 2 castings will then be delivered to Fremont. This will significantly reduce space required for Model Y at Fremont.
• This new body design will probably blow Sandy Munro's mind.

The new wiring design patent seems much less likely to be used for Model Y. Does anyone recall Elon talking about less wiring after changing his mind about building Y on a new platform in August 2017? I think this new wiring will more likely be introduced with the Pickup.

I'm confused. How are they gonna make body panels without stamping them???

 

[FreqFlyer]

Thinking more about this new casting machine and Elon and Jerome's comments, I think there is a very high probability V1 of this machine will be used for initial Model Y production.

Evidence:

• The patent filed 18 months ago is for a massive flexible casting machine which could make a car body from 1 - 6 castings. Grohmann has a track record of building new equipment much faster than this with the emergency battery module machine development, production and installation cycle only taking months in 2017/18.
• Elon says Model Y will initially be built from 2 aluminium castings and 2 joiners, down from 70 steel and aluminium parts and weldings for Model 3 (This sounds very much like V1 of the new machine). He says this will move to a single casting in the future (sounds like V2 of the new machine)
• In March Jerome said Grohmann is currently building a massive new modular machine. "He also said they are building a giant machine using Tesla’s Grohmann sub-division, something he was clearly eager to share but couldn’t yet talk much about. Hmm. He basically just emphasized that it was a “giant, giant, giant machine” that duplicates everything, is modular, is simple on the modular level, and … is gigantic. We’ll all have to wait a bit longer for more information on that." This sounds very much like the casting machine and if it was already being built in March it should be ready for Model Y.
• In the ride the lightning podcast "Musk told McCaffrey that the longest lead time items for the Model Y are the stamping dies for the exterior body panels, so those were the highest priority items to get nailed down." Notice he specifically says exterior body panels, suggesting there may be no stamping equipment required for all body panels. Presumably some exterior panels will be manufactured separately from the 2 casting piece unibody frame.

Some consequences of this new machine if it is used for Model Y:

• Much less welding robots. Reduces capex and reduces dependence on external manufacturing equipment suppliers (FANUC and KUKA).
• Much less stamping machines. Reduces capex and reduces lead times for new factories.
• Significantly less space required for future car manufacturing lines.
• Modular design for body production allows easier matching to target production levels and less lumpy capex.
• This new process will add risk to the Model Y ramp.
• The Model Y will likely move to an aluminium body, potentially reducing weight.
• Tesla's castings base is in Lathrop where it has recently built a huge new building. There is a chance that a significant part of the Y production could take place at Lathrop with new Grohmann machines. The 2 castings will then be delivered to Fremont. This will significantly reduce space required for Model Y at Fremont.
• This new body design will probably blow Sandy Munro's mind.

The new wiring design patent seems much less likely to be used for Model Y. Does anyone recall Elon talking about less wiring after changing his mind about building Y on a new platform in August 2017? I think this new wiring will more likely be introduced with the Pickup.

Nice theory, I too think this casting machine is in place and will soon be operational. However, I think the new wiring will be in place for the Y. It was rumored that the Y would have less wiring than the 3.

Many state the Lathrop facility is just a big logistics center, and point to the building permits that state so. However, I am thinking more than just warehousing will be going on there.

 

[MP3Mike]

The new wiring design patent seems much less likely to be used for Model Y. Does anyone recall Elon talking about less wiring after changing his mind about building Y on a new platform in August 2017? I think this new wiring will more likely be introduced with the Pickup.

I'm pretty sure that they were still talking about reduced wiring in the Y even after backing off from a new platform.

 

[Todd Burch]

I came to this thread just to trash the manipulators who so blatantly attempt to suppress TSLA in the morning.

Obvious price suppression is obvious. Looks like it will run out of steam and $260 will fall again, just as it did at market close yesterday.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Well, the Q2 update letter will be released a few hours before that, usually within the hour after NASDAQ market close, which should at least give some hints whether it's worth staying up late for the conference call.

The call is always worth staying up late for. That’s usually where the guidance comes from. I wouldn’t want to miss it.

 

[AZRI11]

Starting to feel the heat from the burning shorts here in Paris.

Note that tomorrow will be the hottest day in decades here, is that a sign about what’s going to happen sometime later today...

My uncle who is 75 is there. World is on fire.

 

[ProfTournesol]

My uncle who is 75 is there. World is on fire.

make that the hottest days on record ever! Damn it is hot, can’t sleep so will join listen to the call!

 

[mongo]

Nice theory, I too think this casting machine is in place and will soon be operational. However, I think the new wiring will be in place for the Y. It was rumored that the Y would have less wiring than the 3.

Many state the Lathrop facility is just a big logistics center, and point to the building permits that state so. However, I am thinking more than just warehousing will be going on there.

They are hiring for casting tech in Lathrop:
https://www.indeed.com/q-Tesla-l-Lathrop,-CA-jobs.html

There are at least two Tesla buildings in Lathrop.

The large building purpose is reported both ways:
Fred article on the casting side:
Closer look at Tesla's giant new building in Northern California - Electrek

Teslarati on the part distribution rumors:
Tesla’s massive parts distribution center in Lathrop, CA is nearing completion

Due to process time, casted bodies seem like a thing that would require a lot of area to match final assembly build rate. Makes sense to do it other than at Fremont. Also explains how they could fit Y there, if there is no body line.

 

[Krugerrand]

With approx. 76% of its parts shared with Model 3, presumably some of the stamping dies will be reused for the Model Y. It's another sound argument in favor of building both cars at the same site.
Cheers!

Both you can stop going down this road. There will be a full set of unique Class A body parts for Model Y and thus die sets. The vehicle is sufficiently different that there will be zero body panels shared between 3 & Y.

As an example: Y is taller than 3. That means fender, side body and doors are different. (3 doesn’t have a quarter panel, whether Y does or not is irrelevant since that still means new set of dies.). Y doesn’t have a trunk. That means different inner, outer and upper lift gate panels. That leaves only trunk inner and outer and I’d bet my own money dimensions and shaping for those are also different enough on the Y vs 3 to need new dies.

Commonality parts would be things like battery casing, motor castings and assorted associated parts, door handles, mirrors, sound system components, certain interior parts, etc...

 

[Fact Checking]

Commonality parts would be things like battery casing, motor castings and assorted associated parts, door handles, mirrors, sound system components, certain interior parts, etc...

In particular seats might be shared between the 3 and the Y: with the Y having a higher seating position and more head clearance - neither of which necessarily affects the seats themselves.

3rd row seats might be unique to the Y.

 

[EVNow]

Here is what factset avg is today (according to D J News).

EPS : -0.35
Rev : $6.47B
FCF : $136M

 

[Fact Checking]

Here is what factset avg is today (according to D J News).

EPS : -0.35
Rev : $6.47B
FCF : $136M

Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.35 is roughly -$1.4 GAAP EPS, or about -$252m GAAP loss if we count with ~180m diluted shares, right?

 

[Don TLR]

All the talk of women not driving trucks, most all of the women horse riders have their own diesel truck and know how to drive it towing a trailer.. There's a lot of horsewomen locally to me and I pass by a watering hole that typically has 1/2 dozen horses tied up out front most weekends,, well not so much in this melting heat.. Drive by a Rodeo and count the trucks, there's a lot of them

 

[LN1_Casey]

All the talk of women not driving trucks, most all of the women horse riders have their own diesel truck and know how to drive it towing a trailer.. There's a lot of horsewomen locally to me and I pass by a watering hole that typically has 1/2 dozen horses tied up out front most weekends,, well not so much in this melting heat.. Drive by a Rodeo and count the trucks, there's a lot of them

I don't think the argument was not over whether women drive trucks or not, but that the Ford F-150 commercial only "showed off" to men and one of whom claimed that he "drives his women in his truck on dates" or words to that effect. As women stereotypically tend to dress up for said dates, there naturally is some issues with the dress and entering into a theoretically raised/higher truck cabin.

I know women who drive trucks because they have horses. I know women who have raised trucks because they like them. I'd argue that truck ownership tends to be male heavy, but that's not saying women don't buy/use trucks.

Although, I'd think that there will be more women who get an electric truck then men, or it'll be closer to even. Mostly because a lot of people buy big diesel trucks because of the perceived masculinity with it, not because they need it. For a while, I don't think people will associate an electric vehicle, even a truck, as particularly masculine.