Just placed bets on Aug 23 300 calls for 2.95. Plan to close tomorrow regardless. Who needs Vegas when there’s Tesla earnings?
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
It should not come as a surprise to anyone that GM Cruise is delayed. Indications are that they are -- at best -- having difficulty meeting their investment milestones. That has bearing here as the article fails to note this where it is relevant. That is, they make it sound like the investment money has happened when it only gets unlocked by meeting milestones.
Compare this
with this
GM Cruise self-driving cars draw big investors but are having problems
Then there is the usual misdirection about Waymo's supposed lead:
You'd be forgiven for thinking that sentence said Waymo had launched an autonomous ride-share as opposed to the human driver ride-share. Misleading, but it doesn't actually lie.
and finally attempts to imply that Tesla is somehow behind:
There's all kinds of wrong with that. First, they are using CNBCs twisting of what Musk said. What he actually said was that there would be around a million Tesla's with the hardware capability of being robotaxis by the end of 2020. Not that there would be robotaxis. In fact, that is so disingenuous given that he clearly stated there would not be robotaxis until after 2020 that it can only be interpreted as a deliberate lie.
The second "quote" is no better because it is either entirely fabricated or is a partial fabrication or is omitting context. I watched the autonomy day presentation and Musk never said what that quote is implying. Again, his guidance was for "feature complete" by end of 2019, "safe enough" by end of 2020, and "approved by regulators" at some unknown point in the future.
Then tossing in Musk's "admission" is just to add to the negative weight against Tesla's ability to reach autonomy. If the author didn't have an anti-Tesla bias they would have added, "but sometimes its 'wrong' because it is ahead of schedule." Like the Model 3, which is behind the accelerated schedule but way ahead of the original plan.
Lies, damn lies, and CNBC reporters. Blech.
Runarbt
Active Member
Suggest you wait 3-4 days after earnings. Even excellent results take a few days to sink in/for the shorts spend their hoarded borrowed shares. (what happened back in 2013 when SP went from 30-180 and 2016 sp180-350). Both times the SP reacted negative for 3-5 days if I remember correct.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
This $260 capping is just bonkers. Bonkalicious.
Only about 16% of pick up truck owners are women.
Pickup Truck Owner Demographics: F150, Silverado, Sierra, Ram, Tundra
Most pick up owners never tow or go off road. The facts are that for the vast majority of owners it's just a cultural signifier, a living country music song. I don't see EV trucks changing that much myself, especially as Tesla owners skew heavily male as well.
Side note, that Ford commercial is a joke. World record for a single man pulling train cars is almost half of what the truck pulled.
Good point on the upside. Was thinking more about fair to mediocre results - time value must be around -5% daily for this? I never bought options this close to expiration.
Last edited:
In the past it has been because of a time conflict with another company's call that the investors/analysts also want to participate in. I don't know if that's the case today.
Green!
OT, aluminum is amazing. Maybe liquid pour into forms is my guess. You still need large forms, but 2? That's where my brain explodes. Inner / outer?
So Elon finally did it ! Two lift-offs within 24 hours ! WOW
Except only one will be a rocket, the other one will be Tesla SP
JusRelax
Active Member
Lots of stuff happening today. ARK Invest is having their 'Big Ideas Summit 2019' presentation today as well:
39° here in Paris, 40° inside my flat (I work in remote because the temperature in the office is even worse). No AC, no fan, no air flow, just litters of water. I avoid the public transport by biking. I'm getting used to the heat waves so it's OK. But god we should act urgently to prevent that in the future!Almost nobody has air conditioning in France... neither most of public transportation...
Back on Tesla, is there a reason the postponed the ER call? 00:30 will be hard...
My recollection as well, was that in response to a question, Elon said the new wiring was still planned for Model Y even though it would not have a completely new platform.
Last edited:
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
There are pickup truck, SpaceX, and global warming subforums just itching for more posting activity.
Looks like short sellers are selling:
$TSLA short int is $10.17 bn; 39.10 mm shs shorted; 29.69% of float; 0.90% borrow fee. Shs shorted are down -1.7 mm, -4.10%, over the past week as stock price rose +3.09%. We saw 2.4 mm shs of short covering yesterday. Shorts are down -$1.50 bn in mark-to-market losses in July
Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter
$TSLA short int is $10.17 bn; 39.10 mm shs shorted; 29.69% of float; 0.90% borrow fee. Shs shorted are down -1.7 mm, -4.10%, over the past week as stock price rose +3.09%. We saw 2.4 mm shs of short covering yesterday. Shorts are down -$1.50 bn in mark-to-market losses in July
Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter
You and me. I bought the Aug16 300 calls in the week before delivery results came out @ 1.89. Currently @ 2.42.
Might sell a few Thu or Fri if it shoots up a lot to reduce amount of money I have on the line (it's a small amount now, but if earnings are good it will be bigger), but might also hold on to some a bit longer if I think it could rise more in the next few weeks. All depends on how good/bad earnings are.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
I found the linked video article mildly interesting and curiously at odds with its title.
According to it, a basic model 3 only costs Tesla $28,000 to manufacture which gives a 25% gross profit margin at $35k sale price. Further, the battery supposedly costs $6k which with a 55 kWh battery (what I remember seeing cited, I'd be happy to be corrected) amounts to a pack cost of $110/kWh. Not too shabby, and certainly much better than competitors are able to achieve.
Naturally, they point out that the battery is a single component with high cost compared to the normal automative battery while failing to mention the relative cost of the motors. You'd think that a Tesla would necessarily cost $6k more than an equivalent gasoline car and maybe that was the point. In fact, I'm surprised they didn't compare the battery to the gas tank -- a serious comparison would do power train vs power train instead of cherry picking components.
They then claim without source that Tesla has $97/kWh cell cost with rest of industry $127/kWh, so a 30% advantage to Tesla.
Finally, they conclude with EV prices will keep dropping and specifically show their "lowest price" $40k dropping to ~$36k. Which doesn't gel with the title of "cost you at least $40,000".
Some sort of sourcing for Tesla's costs would be nice. If Tesla is really clearing 25% margin on a $35k M3SR that is huge. If their margin on the least profitable vehicle is that high maybe they really could pull out a profit this quarter, but I remain skeptical.
Here's why the cheapest Tesla will probably cost you at least $40,000
According to it, a basic model 3 only costs Tesla $28,000 to manufacture which gives a 25% gross profit margin at $35k sale price. Further, the battery supposedly costs $6k which with a 55 kWh battery (what I remember seeing cited, I'd be happy to be corrected) amounts to a pack cost of $110/kWh. Not too shabby, and certainly much better than competitors are able to achieve.
Naturally, they point out that the battery is a single component with high cost compared to the normal automative battery while failing to mention the relative cost of the motors. You'd think that a Tesla would necessarily cost $6k more than an equivalent gasoline car and maybe that was the point. In fact, I'm surprised they didn't compare the battery to the gas tank -- a serious comparison would do power train vs power train instead of cherry picking components.
They then claim without source that Tesla has $97/kWh cell cost with rest of industry $127/kWh, so a 30% advantage to Tesla.
Finally, they conclude with EV prices will keep dropping and specifically show their "lowest price" $40k dropping to ~$36k. Which doesn't gel with the title of "cost you at least $40,000".
Some sort of sourcing for Tesla's costs would be nice. If Tesla is really clearing 25% margin on a $35k M3SR that is huge. If their margin on the least profitable vehicle is that high maybe they really could pull out a profit this quarter, but I remain skeptical.
Here's why the cheapest Tesla will probably cost you at least $40,000
You are also going to get nailed by the drop in volatility post-ER unless there is a big upswing in the price.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
