Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Especially when 2019 might turn to be an year with incredible importance for the companies' future. We are talking new GF, new car models, significant steps towards FSD, etc.

This I feel is right on point. The next year is pretty important,

 

[KarenRei]

Early adopters are ok with that kind of stuff, mainstream buyers will lose their sh$t.

Can someone please let me know when we get to "mainstream buyers"? Because back in the Roadster days, issues with anything were said to be, "Well, early adopters will put up with issues, but when they get to mainstream buyers with the Model S....". Then it was, "Well, S early adopters may put up with issues, but when they want to mass market it to mainstream buyers...." Then it was "Well, S and X owners may put up with issues, but when they want to sell the 3 to mainstream buyers...."

When exactly do we get to these intolerant "mainstream buyers"? Who apparently have never been mad at other manufacturers before?

 

[Unpilot]

This I feel is right on point. The next year is pretty important,

Bad form to quote myself...but I am Loving the SP action today....there I made it Market action.

 

[mongo]

Service discussion thread:
Why Tesla Will Fail

Regarding Market Action: my apologizes, apparently I have caused a downturn due to my recent purchase...

(or conversely, I'm great at picking peaks )

This too shall pass...

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Bad form to quote myself...but I am Loving the SP action today....there I made it Market action.

Ah, THIS is why it’s dropping so hard right now. Bad form, indeed.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Given that they've literally answered questions about service issues before, and there's dozens of Musk tweets on the subject, it's nonsense to think that they've not heard service complaints. There is literally no way on this warming earth that they've not heard them. There's a huge difference between "not having heard service complaints" and either "deciding capital was more critically urgent elsewhere" or "trying to improve but failing / being overwhelmed by increasing volume".

Now, you are apparently of the view that conference calls are designed to be a complaint box.
They are not. Period. End of story. That's not their purpose. Their purpose is to learn about company plans.

I was going to suggest that a question needs to be asked of Tesla's plans to revamp their service processes, but it looks like you made that suggestion as I got further in. I think the question needs to be asked, but I agree with you that the proposed phrasing is not helpful.

Internet shows gas is $5.57 a gallon in Germany, it’s much more expensive in Europe than the US.

Ah, missed that it was Germany. It appears the original estimate was still high.

Can someone please let me know when we get to "mainstream buyers"? Because back in the Roadster days, issues with anything were said to be, "Well, early adopters will put up with issues, but when they get to mainstream buyers with the Model S....". Then it was, "Well, S early adopters may put up with issues, but when they want to mass market it to mainstream buyers...." Then it was "Well, S and X owners may put up with issues, but when they want to sell the 3 to mainstream buyers...."

When exactly do we get to these intolerant "mainstream buyers"? Who apparently have never been mad at other manufacturers before?

I think we're starting to get there now.

 

[JRP3]

Yeah, I really don't like his attitude. Don't buy a Tesla and then complain about their self service options.

He's mostly complaining about the repeated delays and runaround he's been getting about the status of the vehicle he's trying to buy. How many times do you need to show up to pick up a vehicle which isn't there? By the way he finally got the car.

I take it you chose not to be a part of the solution here. Again, maybe recommend your idea to Tesla for loaner vehicles in remote areas unless I misunderstood the problem. I later read that this has more to do with State laws restricting in areas such as upstate NY rather than Tesla. So what would it hurt to offer your suggestion? It was your idea, just sayin'.

You entirely misunderstood the problem, and it's cause. It's not state laws. My idea is for Tesla to have more service centers in NY, at least one, I've told them, as have others.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Sorry guys but, why do you vote up Sean's question. Tesla absolutely understands the problem with service capacity why do you want to give shorts real thing to scream about?

I had the same concern... it's at the top of the list, leading me to wonder if this wasn't a FUD move (or at least boosted by FUD). Not that there aren't areas for improvement, but this seems a bit loud in the room. Reminds me of Model S owners when V9 came out (split screen gone). That's all I heard about... threats as I recall. He addressed it didn't he?

FYI, my service has been exceptional from the start for nearly a year. But I'm in Tempe Az, 10 miles from the SC. Phone support has been top notch and patient, and Service has recommended things I didn't even need IMO (like new windshield, rear seats, shocks, repainting trunk for a very tiny crack in paint, new charger cord as it seemed a bit tight, more...). I consciously avoid unnecessary or miniscule service because I know it costs them (me) money. And what other company helps you troubleshoot your car over the phone and looks at the data real-time while explaining how things work? Is anyone besides Tesla doing this? I've avoided a couple of trips to the SC like this already. It's so efficient.

My last car was a Murano, bought new. All they did was tell me I didn't have a problem with my electrical system then I had to fix it out of warranty. Tesla would have pulled the Alternator just on a hunch no doubt.

 

[Nocturnal]

Can someone please let me know when we get to "mainstream buyers"? Because back in the Roadster days, issues with anything were said to be, "Well, early adopters will put up with issues, but when they get to mainstream buyers with the Model S....". Then it was, "Well, S early adopters may put up with issues, but when they want to mass market it to mainstream buyers...." Then it was "Well, S and X owners may put up with issues, but when they want to sell the 3 to mainstream buyers...."

When exactly do we get to these intolerant "mainstream buyers"? Who apparently have never been mad at other manufacturers before?

We are already there, Model 3 buyers are a mix of regular customers and early adopter types. I've seen the tone of the average post slowly change over the past 6 months. I've never received customer service like this and there is no excuse for it. Fortunately my car is amazing and I believe in Tesla's mission. Customers are getting fed up though, I know I am and I'm more into the Kool aide than most.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Major Garrett on Twitter

Senior administration officials expect @realDonaldTrump to endorse short-term funding bill to reopen government in next hour. Final details being worked out in WH convos now. Unclear if 2 or 3 weeks. Border debate will continue. Stress on Govt systems was increasing.

I wonder if this will move markets, including TSLA.

 

[Unpilot]

Hit piece on my Yahoo page about how "Elon Musk may address possible need capitol on earning's call"
And nuggets like "debate swirls on Tesla ability to pay 920 Million"

It's all junk don't look....I did for you...your welcome.

 

[TradingInvest]

EV's cost will continue to drop due to scale and battery technology improvements. Meanwhile ICE's cost will go up due to reduced production scale and reduced resale value. We will soon reach the cost parity point, then the transition will really pickup speed.

It's pretty clear to me EV's demand will reach a major S curve starts from next year and will last at least 15~20 years. Tesla is the true leader in this transition. The current market cap only reflects a small fraction of Tesla's true value. Holding all my shares and will continue to look for opportunities to add more.

 

[shlokavica22]

This I feel is right on point. The next year is pretty important,

The importance comes from the possibility that big money will change sides. Real, smart shorts, play the waiting game for now to see how TSLA pays the bonds and whether the company can stay on it's own "financial" feet. They will choose the winning horse sooner than later.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Taycan confirmed to have 90kWh pack, 22kW AC charger, no hitch, optional heat pump.

Fred Alert.

350kW would be a nearly 4C charge rate if that's 90kWh-actual rather than 90kWh-usable. Fry those cells... (The cells have been previously stated to be 270Wh/kg, so they're using an energy-dense chemistry (like Tesla), not a power-dense one.) That is, if you can actually find a place to charge at 350kW (most of the stations Ionity is building aren't actually 350kW; they're designed to be upgraded to 350kW at a later date).

I'd love to use the now-known pack size to estimate efficiency, but we don't know whether the "400km/250mi range" A) will hold in reality, B) whether that's NEDC or WLTP, and C) whether that's 90kWh actual or usable. If it's 90kWh-usable, and it does hold (for some cycle), that'd be 225Wh/km / 360Wh/mi. Even for EPA-combined that'd be a real guzzler, let alone WLTP, let alone NEDC. I had thought that Taycan was going to be the first mainstream automaker's EV built with an understanding of the importance of efficiency. But apparently, nope...

(Unless usable capacity is way less than 90kWh)

Add to the above the already-known $92,5k entry price, 600hp, and a 0-100kph of 3,5s.

You're thinking like an EV buyer, but Porsche is building Taycan for a Porsche buyer. Traction wins over efficiency for majority of Porsche buyers.

One can think whatever one wants of their strategy, but they know their buyers. Porsche is the only other car company that has similar relationship with customers like Tesla has*.

*though I wouldn't trust them with new technology - more than once they've shown to be ethically challenged when needing to make customers whole after major, compromised design screw-ups

 

[Buckminster]

Near-future quarterly financial projections

Fact set update:
Looks like we should weather this one...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Just curious: why is that? As they order the invoice number should increase for them too - so the next new private customer reporting a new invoice number would show up in the spreadsheet.

Or are bigger purchases invoiced by Tesla in an entirely separate process, with different invoice number sequencing?

It is my assumption that the orders by leasing companies follow a different process and do not produce an invoice number for each car, or at least not in the same range as individual orders. But it is not a wild guess, not a baseless assumption.

If it were not the case we would have seen bigger leaps or holes in the invoice number sequence (as I got confirmation from a leasing company that they order in fairly big batches).

It would also explain why The Netherlands, the fourth biggest market for Model S and X (after the US, China and Norway), is lagging a bit in the Model 3 order stats. And that lagging cannot be caused by the stricter fiscal rules of January 1st, as those changes do not very much limit the fiscal incentives for Model 3. They changes apply to the part above €50,000.

 

[EVNow]

Today's Max Pain is 300. Max puts at 290. So, we should see movement towards 300, as well as shorts trying to bring SP below 290 (like they did 11:00 am).

 

[anthonyj]

Today's Max Pain is 300. Max puts at 290. So, we should see movement towards 300, as well as shorts trying to bring SP below 290 (like they did 11:00 am).

I don’t know, short interest keeps decreasing even with all this FUD. It is unprecedented. Maybe bond holders are closing their hedges?

 

[EVDRVN]

Any Monday predictions?

 

[KarenRei]

You're thinking like an EV buyer, but Porsche is building Taycan for a Porsche buyer. Traction wins over efficiency for majority of Porsche buyers.

Efficiency is meaningless... until you have to go on a roadtrip, when suddenly it's everything (in the real world where they'll be charging on CCS1 chargers).

But I mean, if Porsche's goal is to build a city car, then sure, efficiency doesn't matter.