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Yeah, well if you are trying to convince a climate skeptic or a single mom with one car to go full EV it’s hard to push it if you can’t charge where you park. Not many businesses have EV chargers here, and level 2 does not cut it for “I need to leave to go charge”. If there is a local supercharger that changes the equation for a lot of people, especially if it’s V3.I disagree. Knowing what I know now after driving Model 3 since january 2018 I would definitely want to not trade it for a gas car if I were to move into an appartment that does not allow charging over night.
I would miss the convenience of overnight charging like my iphone, but then could just pay the $30/month flat fee for charging at my work parking garage. And if I did not have that option, I would hit up a supercharger once a week while shopping. Either scenario is a heck lot better than driving a laggy shitty gas car (i.e. BMW M3) without autopilot through commute traffic and then pay extra $$$ for gas, oil change and smog checks, worry about having left my lights on and needing a jump start, scratch ice in the winter, worry about idling in the garage killing me, worry about not having sentry mode record anybody who scratches the car, worry about not being in the safest car should I get into an accident, worry about giving more money to the oil mafia that invests it straight into preventing humanity from escaping climate change for their short term profits etc.
How is no one discussing Tesla's 2TWh battery cell manufacturing plan?
This is so much more significant than anything else in the report or the call. A cell supply plan of this scale is enough to solve global warming.
2TWH is really, really insane. Tesla have to have made some massive breakthroughs in cell design and manufacturing in their R&D lab.
I highly doubt Tesla is aiming to sell 30-40 million cars alone. Most likely they aim for huge volumes of stationary storage and to open up their battery and powertrain platform to all takers.
The best of the competition is in the low 200 mile range, the best of Tesla is over 300. 1/3 better miles.
I'm starting to wonder if, even if Tesla exceeds selling 1m/year, if Musk's insistence on growth over profits will keep the stock price stagnant.
Talking heads on TV may be full of it, but people hitting the buy and sell button for a living aren't dumb.
The article is sloppy - e.g. he doesn't separate leasing out when calculating ASP. But his two main themes are on target:I know Seeking Alpha, but any hints of truth to this article?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4277442-tesla-going-miss-gone
They make it sound like positive cash flow was only due to a "one time" inventory flush. Thoughts?
BMW in major crisis. Huge management shakeup. Flat revenue and deliveries.
Daimler Benz lost over a billion dollars in Q2 and faces a crisis. Former CEO ratted out the other Germans on dieselgate on the way out the door.
All of these auto companies are facing these problems with sales that are flat-ish or declining. Enormous revenue with tiny or negative profit combined with panic, shakeup, and stagnation.
Tesla is growing deliveries at what, 80% YoY? Revenue is skyrocketing.
But still falling, people are really scared
I think Elon said that when he was trying to please Wallstreet which caused him to slow the growth plans, but then after talking to some of the large investors they told him that they prefer growth over profit, so now he has switched back to growing faster while trying to maintain a positive FCF.
The best of the competition is in the low 200 mile range, the best of Tesla is over 300. 1/3 better miles.
Let’s think objectively.
What is this major crisis at BMW? Are they in process of filing ch7?
Tesla has also basically lost JB.
Daimler lost one billion on revenues of 42 billion. Tesla lost half billion on 6 billion. Which is better?
When dealing with percentages, going up from the bottom will be much bigger.
See how a half cup can be seen either way?
Yeah, well if you are trying to convince a climate skeptic or a single mom with one car to go full EV it’s hard to push it if you can’t charge where you park. Not many businesses have EV chargers here, and level 2 does not cut it for “I need to leave to go charge”. If there is a local supercharger that changes the equation for a lot of people, especially if it’s V3.
But when do you stop "growth mode"? When every car on the planet is a BEV? He's claiming 2020 Q3/Q4 will be big. I suspect he was (and still is) banking on FSD sales. He said as much yesterday stating all that opportunity in FSD (code for not as fast as expected IMO). I don't expect FSD by 2020 either - the driver will still be needed. Now I'm really understanding what it means to be "Long."
Did someone manage to gather that data on "Market expectations" vs Tesla guidance? It was a great question. Is this the trick FUD plays every quarter now? Setting high expectations ever quarter?
So I forcast huge losses every quarter (and let's keep that tone), offset by ZEV credits maybe as the bonus check. +FCF and +Sales will ride us through eventually. Whatever the "Market" expects, subtract $0.50/share and we'll be fine with our SP predictions.
About 40 degrees Celsius here in Germany today supposedly the hottest day ever measure since 19th century.
Your explanation went off the rails right from the get-go. The money that started Tesla was not borrowed and there is no interest on it, it was money the founders invested in exchange for ownership of the business. Likewise, when Tesla went public years later, that funding was not borrowed money either, it was letting in new business owners (shareholders) in exchange for a share of ownership. There is no interest on that money either unless you want to consider future stock dividends as "interest" (which they are not).
Please note that I'm not saying Tesla hasn't taken out business loans to fund further expansion, they certainly have, but your explanation is simply incorrect on the nature of the initial money (and later, the IPO money).
A "usual" company would with an increasing order rate keep the price or raise it while Tesla is decreasing it to accomplish the mission and pressing other automakers to make the shift. Its a bid like cut throat competition.
While they do that & increasing production they do not optimize profits and they invest in CapEx for further production capacity and still make 600 Mid cash which is amazing. Sure money goes into optimizing Fremont and Nevada as well we know this as Groman has helped to increase Battery production which has let to nice growth in TE.
Tesla does not cut prices for cars out of a demand problem as others would do but because if BEVs don't go mainstream we are all frogs in boiling water. About 40 degrees Celsius here in Germany today supposedly the hottest day ever measure since 19th century.
Not doing what other automakers would do in that situation makes Wall Street coming to complete false conclusions and that coupled with the inability to interpret ER # is a toxic combination.
Still some Analysts and former board members got it right.
Except now too many people are selling shovels.Time to get into the Air Conditioning business!
As they say, "In a Gold Rush, sell shovels."
Tried to grab 100 more @225, but was a bit too greedy. Raised to @227. I may be chasing a moving target but that's okay.
The article is sloppy - e.g. he doesn't separate leasing out when calculating ASP. But his two main themes are on target:
1. Margin compression. 25% was once the floor with Musk talking about a 30% future. Now we need even more cost cuts to maintain 18-19% as ASP pressure continues.
2. Unit Opex. He says opex is stuck at 11k/unit. I recall an old SA article claiming Tesla was doomed because Model 3 gross profit of ~10k/unit would never cover 20k/unit opex. That article was obviously incorrect, as I explained in the comment section. But opex does have a floor, and you can make a good case it's somewhere around 9-11k/unit.
As I said in April, there's a reason Musk wants to change the narrative from S3XY profits to Robotaxis. The car business is hard.