Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sudre]

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"For Tesla, the Clock Is Ticking"...

hmmm.. I feel like if you put any other auto manufacturer's name in there, and the headline makes more sense.

The true meaning to the headline. The Tesla package is sitting on the other car makers CEO desk and it is ticking away. I wonders which one goes boom first.

Metaphorically speaking.

 

[mrmage]

OK I guess it's kind of silly but as a tiny investor I wish the stock price was $23 or something more manageable. Now I often end up with $200-ish that I cannot buy for until my next monthly paycheck.

Are there better ways to do this? Calling other tiny investors here...

I've never personally used a fractional share brokerage, but I've always thought it was a good concept. This is just a google which is the extent of my knowledge on these.

The 7 Best Fractional Share Investing Brokerages of 2019

 

[SOULPEDL]

Assuming GF3 was built on the backs of the Chinese, here's to their outstanding push to get the job done. Not the first time they've helped out (thinking Railroads etc...). They're probably working as if guns at their heads. That parts is sad, can't speak out.

If they can read this, hang in there! Sooo much appreciated!!!
Thank You.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

He meant 1,000 roofs.
Each tile is 14"x8.65". Even with 100% exposure, 1,000 tiles is less that 850 square feet.

1000 Rooves per week, hopefully.

It sounds like they finally got it right. I was reading that at the beginning half the tiles had to be done over again. It really slows you down when you are not sure why half of what you do is a mistake. Once you get to zero mistakes you can concentrate on speed. Once you can concentrate on speed you can teach a dumb ass robot to do it even faster. The faster you make them the higher the margin.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

The true meaning to the headline. The Tesla package is sitting on the other car makers CEO desk and it is ticking away. I wonders which one goes boom first.

Metaphorically speaking.

Ford,Toyota, BMW CEO's are just pretending that Tesla doesn't exist. Their shareholders are swallowing the bear argument. They will soon choke on it. GM and Nissan are at least trying. I went to a Toyota dealer about 2 years ago and the salesman told me that fuel cells were the way to go. Nobody talks about that now.

 

[madodel]

PLEASE!

Um, now where were we... Ah, yes... perhaps if they construct the Megapack array with all the containers standing on the end, like a city of tall skyscrapers they'll provide mutual shade for better cooling...

MegaHenge? A monument to Tesla Energy worshipped by the Tesla Fanbois. And it stores electricity to.

And we are back over $240.

 

[EVNow]

Is it true that Elon says that they will be making ONE THOUSAND solar roofs a week by the end of THIS year? That's a lot of money. A solar roof cost at least $40,000 time 52,000 roofs is a lot of money. If they can make any kind of margin at all it will be significant.

If they get ~20% margin, this would be like adding an extra 1k/wk of Model3. About $100M gross profit per quarter and $500M revenue.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Hey soupdl did your dog shrink....lol.

Was his reaction to the SP last week.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Not quite the volume underlying yesterday's move, but still nice action!

Edit:

Was his reaction to the SP last week.

I'm still waiting for my avatar to become relevant to the SP. $180 to go.

 

[Nocturnal]

Fred has a piece today on using Tesla Semi as a platform for a motor home. (I won’t include the link, but you know how to find it if you want).

He’s envisioning driving during the day and plugging it in at night. But it would be more remarkable the other way, once FSD is available. Imagine being able to tell the vehicle where to go next, and sleep while it takes you there. You could travel the continent on just some electricity, without leaving "home" and without driving.

So, ladies and gentleman, here now the Sancho Master Plan:

1. Buy more TSLA
2. In a few more years when FSD is generally available, retire
3. Tell Neroden "I told you so."
4. Sell home and buy Tesla FSD Motor Home
5. Load it with beer
6. Drive off into the sunset....

And watch demand for domestic airline travel plummet.

 

[Todd Burch]

 

[AudubonB]

There has been some talk here about abysmal sales of the Model S.

In this article from CleanTechnica they list the BEV bestsellers in Europe in June.

And the Model S sells better than

the new-and-exiting e-Tron and better than the luxury Jaguar i-Pace.

Huge Tesla High Tide In Europe — June EV Sales Report | CleanTechnica

Texas makes some Depends that can take care of those.

 

[VValleyEV]

Thanks for the glass half empty take. For the glass half full take: there’s a high chance that most of the previously paid-for FSD options will be carried into P&L in the next few quarters as the final NOA features are turned on. I don’t know what milestones the auditor is using but based upon the current sales page for FSD, it’s reasonable to assume they are: Advanced Summon, traffic light and stop sign recognition, and automatic driving on city streets. The company is guiding Q4 this year for these milestones, let’s assume it’s delayed by a quarter or two because, well why not.

As per Reflexfunds analysis, for options already sold, the deferred revenue released to P&L could be in the region of $400m. This does not include FSD options sold between now and the recognition date. Pick a number but based upon the ramping deliveries profile, you’d expect perhaps another $200m odd by the end of the year, based upon the existing take rate?

As guided by the company, there’s a further boost to future P&L and CASHFLOW when the improved feature suite comes online, in the form of a one off upgrade from existing fleet owners and every future vehicle sale hence forth at a higher FSD take-up rate than currently (at almost certainly a higher price too).

Even if the features are switched on in Q4 with all deferred revenue to date recognised in that quarter, we should not be surprised to see FSD contributing >$1bn to operating cashflow and net profit in 2020, with a real shot at completely covering the company wide annual R&D budget of c. $1.2bn. Do your own sums for 2021 when Model Y and Shanghai are likely to have ramped.

Even if we’re a decade away from getting drunk and falling asleep in a steering wheel free car, and even if VW and JLR and everyone else suddenly brings out compelling EVs at the same scale, cost and margins as Tesla can right now... it should be clear that the FSD programme represents a potentially insurmountable moat in allowing Tesla to undercut its competition for the foreseeable future.

SO, does Tesla get to recognize a large portion of FSD revenue when they upgrade customer vehicles to HW3? Last I heard that was still planned for sometime this year, wondering if it will coincide with full release of software release 10. Since they have been manufacturing the new HW3 version of FSD since about June, they probably are building up an inventory to match the pre-paid upgrade pipeline.

@ReflexFunds ? @Fact Checking ?

 

[NicoV]

I went to a Toyota dealer about 2 years ago and the salesman told me that fuel cells were the way to go. Nobody talks about that now.

Not true. My Toyota dealer still only talks about fuel cells.

 

[Drax7]

Just Looking for a raven model s in inventory, in either New York or Florida, the selection
Is anywhere from zero to 1 car. Model 3s In inventory appear equally scarce.

 

[MP3Mike]

Spending and paying are two different things. As soon as you take delivery / ownership of the tooling, it goes into your Assets and Payables. When you pay you remove from Payables and reduce Cash.

True, but often times the ownership doesn't transfer until after it has been installed, tested, and signed-off. It all depends on the contract with their supplier.

 

[ReflexFunds]

SO, does Tesla get to recognize a large portion of FSD revenue when they upgrade customer vehicles to HW3? Last I heard that was still planned for sometime this year, wondering if it will coincide with full release of software release 10. Since they have been manufacturing the new HW3 version of FSD since about June, they probably are building up an inventory to match the pre-paid upgrade pipeline.

@ReflexFunds ? @Fact Checking ?

Revenue recognition will be tied to software milestones (on a per car basis) rather than hardware I think (x% already booked as revenue for features already available, y% will be booked upon Summon release, z% for traffic lights etc). But the hardware upgrade will likely happen at a similar time to the city driving autopilot release. Elon most recently mentioned Q4 for the HW3 upgrades, I expect they've been starting to stockpile ahead of the upgrades.

 

[anthonyj]

Picking up lotto puts at the end of the day. God forbid the SEC goes after Musk (they shouldn’t, but that doesn’t mean that they won’t)

 

[Nocturnal]

I like how you made the webpage look like one of those old timey news thingies.

 

[EVNow]

Revenue recognition will be tied to software milestones (on a per car basis) rather than hardware I think (x% already booked as revenue for features already available, y% will be booked upon Summon release, z% for traffic lights etc). But the hardware upgrade will likely happen at a similar time to the city driving autopilot release. Elon most recently mentioned Q4 for the HW3 upgrades, I expect they've been starting to stockpile ahead of the upgrades.

Most probably they will recognize revenue after FC release - and HW3 upgrade. So, FSD revenue will have some COGS as well (except of course for newer HW3 cars).