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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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On the other hand, TSLA share price just keeps going up. The SEC can't just sit there and not take care of this problem! TSLA will be at $250 or more if they don't do something. ;)

Just kidding! I agree with you.


He was "Hoping"... the man can't hope any more? He also hope to make make a quadrillion cars a year.... *sigh
 
Based on what happened last time I don’t think the SEC wants to go to court over this again. I think Musk has been more than fair for them and any judge knows it’s opening up a bigger mess than it’s worth if they were to have to prosecute a CEO over tweets.

There’s no precedent for this so it’s best not to make one.

That would assume that the SEC is operating under some sort of rational process, but it seems to me they operate under a much more vague process at the whims of individual people within the SEC. You rub them the wrong way and they get vindictive just so they can build their resume.
 
SEC was based on cars, nobody has even thought about the solar side of Tesla, but now they will?



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Strictly speaking, Ford had a five or six billion dollar loan from the same program that Tesla borrowed from. Ford is still making payments (I believe it was for over 27 years). That's what kept them afloat because the EV that this money produced couldn't possibly have cost that much to develop.
And if we really want to be persnickety you can easily make the argument that Ford owes it's current success to massive federal spending during WWII.

Really? I think Ford is a strong contender to be first to be completely wiped out by Tesla. Over 100% of Ford's valuation is the F-150. Autos have a lot of operating leverage so only a relatively small drop in revenues can quickly kill margins. A strong Pickup release from Tesla could very conceivably bankrupt Ford within 12 months of mass production.
I don't see that happening. Tesla couldn't possibly scale fast enough to put more than a dent in Ford truck sales. F series alone is like 900k a year, plus GM and Dodge sell nearly that. How long until Tesla could produce a million trucks a year?
 
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Just Looking for a raven model s in inventory, in either New York or Florida, the selection
Is anywhere from zero to 1 car. Model 3s In inventory appear equally scarce.

If I had the money, I'd upgrade to performance. I already got the full tax credit, maybe in a few years anyway. (But then there's the truck. Decisions...)

Sure wouldn't want to own a Hybrid. Been saying that since they came out - what a maintenance nightmare! Friend needed a new $8K battery that only held about ~10 KWh? (not much anyway). Then I read this next quote and just started laughing out loud!

From Google:
The batteries in modern hybrids are designed to last for at least 100,000 miles. Some might even make it to 150,000 or more. If you're the original owner of a hybrid vehicle, chances are you won't ever have to replace the battery pack because it just wears out.​

Good news, they won't need a new battery - just junk the car when the battery dies. Hybrids are doomed it seems. Price is just one reason. All those people wanting a new Tesla, demand will be crazy soon.
 
elon tweeting about production guidelines when the revised settlement specifically marks production stuff as needing clearance is just clown behavior
The clowns I know, who are all extremely careful to follow rules (clowning is dangerous and can cause customer lawsuits, so they follow strict rules) would be offended by that statement
 
But Ford has invested in and partnered with Rivian, announced (although not revealed details) that there will be a fully electric F-150, and even produced a video (or was that produced by someone else) of an electric F-150 prototype towing a train. At least a little encouraging, along with the fact that they survived the “Great Recession” of 2007-2009 without taking federal funds, unlike GM.

I would like to see at least one of these legacy automakers get nimble enough to survive the transition.
How exactly is electric F-150 different from GM Bolt ? Infact I remember with what great fanfare they revealed Ford Focus EV in CES of ~'12. They never sold more than ~150 a month ...

BTW, Ford lucked out in 2008. They mortgaged everything and took a huge $23B loan just before the meltdown. ex-CEO Mulally said as much.
 
I don't see that happening. Tesla couldn't possibly scale fast enough to put more than a dent in Ford truck sales. F series alone is like 900k a year, plus GM and Dodge sell nearly that. How long until Tesla could produce a million trucks a year?

Tesla doesn't have to sell a million trucks/year to put F out of business. More like 100,000.

Tesla has already put a serious dent in sales of Ford's last remaining passenger vehicle, the Mustang.

Ford Mustang Sales Fall Nearly 12 Percent In Q1 2019
 
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We all seem to be using different definitions.

Building: Foundation, structure, exterior coverings plus improvements such as interior walls, plumbing and fixtures, wiring and lighting, HVAC, elevators, etc.

Equipment: Stamping presses, welding robots, paint shop, conveyors, forklifts, lifting systems, assembly robots. Stuff used to make the cars, but not specific to any particular model.

Tooling: Stamping dies, certain jigs and other items specific to a particular model. Precision body dies dominate auto tooling cost.

Tesla depreciates Building and Equipment over a fixed number of years, but depreciates tooling on "units of production" basis. Expected life is a million units for Model 3 tooling and 325k units for Model S/X tooling. S/X tooling was originally 250k units. That's based on how many they expected to build before a body design refresh dictated new tooling, i.e. it was an economic life vs. a physical wear-and-tear life. When they saw they could stick with the same body style past 250k units they changed the depreciation schedule.

These are recent pictures of production tooling being installed at GF3:
Tesla releases first pictures inside Gigafactory 3, shows impressive progress - Electrek
That's production lines with industrial robots and at least one stamping machine.
That's all equipment.

Spending and paying are two different things. As soon as you take delivery / ownership of the tooling, it goes into your Assets and Payables. When you pay you remove from Payables and reduce Cash.
Vendors generally don't bill Tesla for the final, largest payment until the equipment and tooling are proven on the production line. It only goes into Accounts Payable after Tesla gets the bill. Prior to that it's an Accrued Liability. It won't show up as capex on Tesla's cash flow statement until they actually write the check. Model 3 equipment and tooling that Tesla installed in spring of 2017 was still hitting the capex line well into 2018.
(If you are purely talking about cash flows, you are right, though. But, payables has only gone up by ~70M)
Capex is a cash flow statement item. Tesla's capex guidance reflects that line item. If Tesla were actually paying for GF3 most of the Phase 1 capex would show in 2020. But I think they're only paying for tooling and incidentals. Time will tell.

But the acquisition of the tooling itself is done.
The bulk of GF3 tooling won't arrive for a couple more months, IMHO. Some of it is in AP because they have to make progress payments on the dies and such. But I don't expect the big payments to hit capex until next year. And as I said, I don't expect the much larger building and equipment costs to show up as capex at all.
 
The following day TSLA plunged 10% from $112,000 a share down to $101,000

Whenever you quote an article from the future that mentions the stock price of a stock that has split multiple times, you should always note that the price you are quoting has not been adjusted for splits. In other words, the article could have said "plunged 10% from $896,000 a share down to $808,000 (split-adjusted for the 4 for one split on 3/15/2021 and 2 for one split on 3/15/2029)"
;)
 
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Have to admit have PTSD over this tweeting crap.

I hedged out my trading position 100%. Was a lot easier to do based on the past two days. Am really tired of the SEC f**ing me and Elon f**ing himself with this stupidity. He is just too smart for this crap. He is being defiant here.

Honestly, it was after hours and Elon is on record that tweets are an allowable way to communicate with market, but I do not know how this pertains to the agreement. You would think the FUD alone over the next couple of days on this could be worth ten percent.

Hey, if I am wrong, still loaded with Tesla. Hope I am. Don't need this kind of indigestion....
 
Have to admit have PTSD over this tweeting crap.

I hedged out my trading position 100%. Was a lot easier to do based on the past two days. Am really tired of the SEC f**ing me and Elon f**ing himself with this stupidity. He is just too smart for this crap. He is being defiant here.

Honestly, it was after hours and Elon is on record that tweets are an allowable way to communicate with market, but I do not know how this pertains to the agreement. You would think the FUD alone over the next couple of days on this could be worth ten percent.

Hey, if I am wrong, still loaded with Tesla. Hope I am. Don't need this kind of indigestion....

I rolled my Jan 20s to jan 21 today, unsure of what is to come ...