Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tivoboy]

What does it mean?
View attachment 365583

el diablo

 

[RobStark]

Temporarily preventing dealers from making sales for the benefit of the OEM, is capricious and unreasonable.

The benefit is just as much for GM dealers.

Now they have to sell Bolts with $3750 Fed Credit against Kona EV,Ioniq EVs, Niro et al with $7500 Federal Credit.

Most GM dealers never really wanted to sell Bolts anyway.

 

[M3Rider]

What does it mean?
View attachment 365583

Means it's a nice car The difference though is that Nasdaq didn't have to hit that number, but it did

 

[Ulmo]

I have believed for years that Tesla would lower their prices when the tax credits expired (or were reduced). That's the main reason I didn't get sucked into the "buy now before the credit goes down" pitch.

Tesla lowering their prices so quickly does help to verify the haters theory that Tesla was actually the recipients of the tax credit versus the consumer since they simply raised their prices to account for the credit (well, $2000 of $3750 so far).

I think the price change triggered a sales reanalysis from Tesla. I think Tesla also knew the insult from taxpayers that the welfare program was being taken advantage of by Tesla. I think therefore Tesla had some built in resistance to making it look more like the tax incentive was something they benefited from or relied on (in fact, Elon Musk and others thought if there was no tax incentive, Tesla would have benefitted more as early mover in the marketplace, crowding out competitors, benefitting Tesla). In addition to profit margin, the way the welfare program looks offered additional resistance to dropping the price. However, this indicates to me it's possible the price analysis triggered by the new price profile caused Tesla to realize their costs had gone down enough to get into the higher market share position of more sales due to lower price despite the additional political costs. I could also be looking at this a bit backwards, since another perception from outsiders could be that if Tesla can't drop their price $2,000, then they're in trouble, so dropping the price an additional $2,000 is a good thumb in the nose of those who say Tesla is really in financial trouble, since it shows Tesla thinks they can make it if they move their per unit profit margin down for higher volume market spaces and not worry about the temporary drop in cash. Anyway, all that must have come up when Tesla considered the total cost of ownership and sales prices that changed abruptly yesterday.

 

[M3Rider]

I was actually talking about traffic lights. Here, just pulled this from the old thread. I made this pic from my M3 being the first car at the stop line. I saw that light was red before reaching the line, but could not see it from the stop position. Needed to turn left. I think I ended up checking the lights at the opposite direction to see when they change. The red light is on on this picture.
View attachment 365606

Also, traffic light malfunctions. Sometimes all 3 lights are on. I saw this happen, but it may not happen in generic time-limited testing. Bunch of these unorthodox scenarios including obstructions etc. need to be thought through and tested specifically to ensure the results are as expected.

Oh, also, wouldn't it be nice to know/test what the car will do when it encounters something like this:

 

[avoigt]

In case it’s has not yet been posted. China with mindblogging construction speed. Looking foreword to videos from the site in the next months.

As inside EVs just pointed out Tesla proven an amazing growth in the US alone. Tesla Model 3 Sales Shatter All Records In December 2018 They are on top of all charts with distance and growth continues to be very high and in my opinion will even accelerate from here.... yes that is possible....

Profits presented for Q4 will be better than Q3. No fires, no negative tweets, no AP accidents ...just great numbers still the SP went down yesterday. That’s hard to explain and in my opinion there is no explanation. People may need time to get over the fraud news from yesterday and understand. Gene Munster was instrumented With his strange miss call that was a blow to all.

SEC investigation to so called wallstreet consensus miss articles is overdue . The same playbook we have seen now and even worse it did work for shorts.

To all investors: keep calm and stay in you will be rewarded.


7h

The
@Tesla
China construction permit is good for 2 stages of construction total 180 days. Info of constructor: It is a listed company of Fortune 500 companies - an important subsidiary of China Construction. It is a China gov-owned large-scale construction company. $TSLA #Tesla

Twitter

 

[Thekiwi]

Everyone should trust their gut reaction to the report today. The numbers were great., exactly what would be expected for the bull case to continue playing out. Case closed.

I don’t know what to say about all the noise over the $2K price cut - the MR started at $44k, went up to $46k and is now down to $44k. This is all rather insignificant to me, especially considering we will see a $35K SR in the coming quarters this year. (I cant keep track of the current short thesis - will it be good or bad when Tesla releases the $35k model 3? And whatever the answer does that same reasoning apply to the MR becoming cheaper as well)

In the mean time, in Q1 something like 50% of production of M3 is heading to Europe & China (mostly high end models I gather?) - so anyone fretting about a slightly lower ASP in the US has to consider the giant overall model 3 ASP upside as those tens of thousands of initial premium model 3s start getting delivered to European & China customers)

 

[avoigt]

On the price decrease topic, you may want to read it as an about +4 k cost decrease per car assuming Tesla will not trade in profits with demand. IOW if you assume they continue to give cost achievements to consumers demand will continuously grow with kept margin and total profits will skyrocket.

What an awesome news overlooked in the media and by most investors.

 

[Electroman]

That’s hard to explain and in my opinion there is no explanation.

In fact I think the headlines and the narrative were just written to fit the SP movement, and not the other way.

 

[EngRyan]

Oh, also, wouldn't it be nice to know/test what the car will do when it encounters something like this:
View attachment 365614

If you look at the youtube vidoes that have the hacked AP output over-laid onto AP camera recordings it already detects drive-able area in green. This is detecting where the road ends at curbs, cones, drop offs, grass edge, what ever. So I think even the current version driving around now would see it with fairly high confidence.

 

[Electroman]

What an awesome news overlooked in the media

Overlooked? I think it was deliberate.

Phil Lebeau tweets that 90.7K deliveries is a miss. He would have said the same even if the deliveries were 95k. He is just fitting a narrative to the stock movement.

 

[jhm]

I like seeing Tesla take the price of all cars down $2k. I wish they could have gone further, especially for S and X. OTOH, I suspect that the $35k base model will still be pegged to that price. Perhaps this was one reason with Tesla withheld the short range version until after tax credit was reduced.

I'd love to see S and X sales double over the next 2 years. I think if they can carve about $5k off the price, this should do it. In China the new GF3 may give Tesla the means to carve much more off the price in China.

At any rate, I think it is important for Tesla to offer newer models and to make existing models more price competitive. What this will do is lock in a very strong market position. Tesla is still mostly competing with ICE vehicles. Tesla still has a long way to go to achieve pricing competitive with ICE.

 

[PANN]

• we've taken advantage of today's market manipulations (change to however you care to view same) and added to our TSLA position by 5.x%. Average cost of new entry at $306.35. Happy enough with that.

Seems like $300 could be bottom for 2019 IIRC Mod added 16% at around $250 in 2018, and $250 turns out to be the bottom of 2018.

 

[EVNow]

Nasdaq futures are down 2.2%. If this holds, we can expect TSLA to be down $7 at open. May test 29x again, intraday.

Last few sessions, Nasdaq has been going down at open or mid day, only to come back up by close. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

 

[EVNow]

Oh, also, wouldn't it be nice to know/test what the car will do when it encounters something like this:
View attachment 365614

Is this really like this or just an early version of Apple Maps ?

 

[Toolsmack]

Lots of concern trolls showing up today, I have no contribution to market action, but I bought more today on the news and subsequent market reaction

 

[Zaxxon]

I can't keep track of the current short thesis - will it be good or bad when Tesla releases the $35k model 3?

Same answer as always: it's a great thing that should have happened already (cause Tesla is Always Late™). Until it happens. Then it's a terrible sign of the apocalypse and heralds certain, imminent doom for the company.

 

[PANN]

The first sentence alone:

"The stock price is tanking because there are roughly 7000 Model 3s in inventory that Tesla can't sell."​

Contains two lies, a false statement and an attempt at trolling investors:

• The Model 3 inventory increase in Q4 was 5,200 units, not 7,000. S+X inventory actually decreased.
• "Can't sell" is an intentional false statement, i.e. a lie. It's fresh unsold inventory of common configuration options

Just to add on a bit, the success of Q1 rely mostly on good Model 3 deliveries to Europe and China. So logically Tesla has to put most (if not all) January Model 3 production capacity for Europe and China, otherwise these cars can't make delivery in Feb/Mar. So it's the right move to keep 5k Model 3 common configuration on inventory to satisfy new US orders in Jan. Tesla is doing the right thing for the business long term.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Nasdaq futures are down 2.2%. If this holds, we can expect TSLA to be down $7 at open. May test 29x again, intraday.

Last few sessions, Nasdaq has been going down at open or mid day, only to come back up by close. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

Uptick rule couldn’t have kicked in at a better time.

 

[Ulmo]

Oh, also, wouldn't it be nice to know/test what the car will do when it encounters something like this:
View attachment 365614

My guess is the same as that stupid driver who drove into the stress relief hole on the old San Francisco Bay Bridge despite it being right in front of them and totally obvious: they just drove right in it, not even slowing down, despite it being there for a long time before they came to it.

But that will be nothing compared to the brand spanking new ugly low quality bridge they put in its place falling down in an earthquake; we think the reason they rushed to tear down the old bridge is that in an earthquake, the old bridge would have stood (less its relief points) whereas the new bridge will probably fall down.

P.S., TeslaMotorsClub.Com is going down a lot these days. What's going on?