Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

Geohotz is the definition of someone with a lot of knowledge in one area and is unaware how little he knows about the rest of the pie.

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less and finally knows everything about nothing

 

[EVNow]

It's actually quite popular in Norway - #6 so far in 2019.

#1 10 868 Tesla Model 3
#2 _6125 Volkswagen Golf

#6 _2977 Mitsubishi Outlander

These stats are EVs and fossils combined. I have only personally seen Outlander in PHEV config since they like EVs pay less taxes.


Source: Registreringsstatistikken – Opplysningsrådet for veitrafikken

Yes - but in US they really flopped because they brought them 5 years too late !

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV May Be Slightly Delayed For US, But Still Coming In 2014

 

[willw64]

When we lose a lot on our investments I tell my wife "It's just on paper. It isn't real until we sell it." Apple has been really good to me and is the majority of my holdings. The quarterly dividends remind me why I hold AAPL since it is a cash generator. But I hold TSLA because someday I expect it to be worth way more than my AAPL shares. There is a time component in every asset. For some assets time is detrimental. Like for anyone planning to hold XOM or GM for the next 20-30 years. And for a stock like TSLA time will bring rewards assuming we or our heirs are around to collect on them and Tesla continues following its mission plan. But for now any stock is worth what someone will pay for it. It always boggles my mind that in a course of any hour the price of a stock can be headed up by multiple dollars and then sometimes even without any news go down by the same or even more. What makes it worth $200 one minute and $190 in a couple minutes. Supply and demand yes, but since people can manipulate the supply and demand it is crazy stuff.

And for the longest time, most technology stocks didn't pay a dividend. It is all about the life cycle of a company and the best use of and return of capital to investors.

 

[LTC_RRR]

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less and finally knows everything about nothing

Conversely, a Generalist is someone who knows less and less about more and more until, eventually, they know nothing about everything

 

[JRP3]

That's not entirely accurate because the real-world efficiency of an electric motor is not a fixed number.

Well yes but a motor is designed to be most efficient in it's normal use range, so I'll stick with my previous statement.

 

[JRP3]

Will also be launching The Boring Company China on this trip

E on Twitter

 

[MartinAustin]

The first demand lever is pulled.

New S+X have free unlimited Supercharging... again.

 

[AudubonB]

The reason this “dividend” discussion was permitted to continue through trading days was because it became painfully obvious that there are more than a vanishing number of forum participants who do not have an understanding of how capital markets work. I am hoping that some of the discussion has reached the consciousness of these members - hoping.

Among other important answers, FC finally brought out what I thought would have been raised very early on (and if it had been, my apologies to another contributor for having missed it): as has happened innumerable times in the past, a traded company that does not pay dividends also has enriched its shareholders by a third-party corporate buyout.

But the most important reason for capital markets not just to exist, but to establish - through the trading activities of those who can buy and sell without the layered complexity of a dividend - the worth of the corporate entity. And THAT thereupon is what allows the company once again to return to the capital markets, through equity or debt in all of their manifold permutations, and it is that which indeed, contrary to a prior poster’s assertion, is how the capital markets DO create REAL value.

 

[VValleyEV]

expert

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less and finally knows everything about nothing

OT.

Great quote, had to look it up. Nicholas Murray Butler, educator (president of Columbia University), philanthropist, and winner of a Nobel Peace Prize in 1930s. Also a reputation for being an arrogant blowhard. Great story that poet Allen Ginsberg got thrown out of Columbia for insulting him.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Standard Range gone in the Model S/X and now FUSC brought back. Perturbing echo’s from Q1.

It's difficult to understand Tesla's strategy re S&X. My gut feel is that the short range S has been near enough osborned by M3P and they decided to drop the SR on both S&X to simplify production. Then they can bring back free supercharging to the remaining premium product as there is, historically, plenty of fat in the margin.

The "problem" with that is the unit production. If volumes go from around 100k units last year to 60-80k units this year we are going to see margins drop as fixed costs rise per unit (all else being equal). What unit volume leads Tesla to not have S&X as the cash cow? Will Pana still sell their 18650's cheaply if they have to idle production?

I guess they are just trying to make S&X as attractive as possible, but now there is a cheaper version which is an excellent vehicle in its own right, it's difficult to pry peoples wallets open on the upgrade.

 

[KarenRei]

The "problem" with that is the unit production. If volumes go from around 100k units last year to 60-80k units this year we are going to see margins drop as fixed costs rise per unit (all else being equal).+.

Since they're only making 100kWh packs now, they can only make a bit over 80k per year. Most packs previously were 75kWh. No, they're probably going to use up their full potential cell supply this year, but they'll use up a good chunk of it. I don't see Pana needing to idle the lines unless it looks like S/X demand is going to level off at some value well below 80k and no combination continual global EV market growth, entering new markets, and new S/X feature rollouts, will change this.

Also, all things are not equal. They're now making 15k units per week with a single shift, vs. 2-3 shifts for 25k units per week. They've become far more efficient. The hardware is cheaper now - for example, Raven is based on the mass-produced, 100% automated Model 3 motor production line, vs. the low volume motors in the old S/X.

As for unlimited supercharging, assuming it's tied to a vehicle/owner combo like they've been doing recently, that may cost Tesla ~$2k per car over some (large) number of years, equivalent to say ~$1,5k per car as an annuity. Those prices are if anything an overestimate. Would Electrek be FUDing up the "unsustainable" aspect if Tesla had simply announced a $1,5k price cut on S/X? Plus, it gives Tesla the opportunity to get not just a sales boost now, but also a sales rush at the end of the quarter when they invariably announce plans to kill it again.

 

[tschmidty]

The "problem" with that is the unit production. If volumes go from around 100k units last year to 60-80k units this year we are going to see margins drop as fixed costs rise per unit (all else being equal)..

Fixed costs on the S&X are probably lower as equipment is deprecated already so margins still high.

 

[Off Shore]

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less and finally knows everything about nothing

Ex: has-been
spurt: drip under pressure

 

[Doggydogworld]

Other than dividends, the stock market has never actually created a penny of net wealth - it's just money trading hands. You buy a stock with the hopes that someone will later want to buy your pseudo shares - essentially vapor ware. So, indeed it is a ponzi scheme.

That's a bridge too far - you ignore all the wealth created in businesses that have the ability to pay dividends today but do not. Berkshire Hathaway could dividend out $10,000 per A share annually without breaking a sweat. Someone who bought 1000 BRKA for $24/share or whatever back in the '60s is a billionaire today. That's real wealth creation, even though they have not (yet) received a single dividend.

 

[Fred42]

I don't know what to think about continued S/X demand. On the one hand there is some Raven availability in Europe, but it doesn't seem flat out. That perpetually leaves a possibility of a sudden peak of catch-up deliveries. Hope spring eternal, but it really, really should happen this quarter.

Are you referring to a delivery catch-up or improvements to spur demand?

 

[kengchang]

Unlimited supercharging is pretty much a dealer incentive that can be removed anytime without whole internet crying about the constant price change and TSLAQ shouting demand cliff.

 

[mrmage]

weekend timepass:

I agree with his comparison between robotaxis vs human driven ride services. For the foreseeable future, people are so much better than computers for driving passengers.

That’s why I think roborentals are where it will be for the next 5 years. Anyone who thinks Tesla can jump straight to robotaxies should review the progression of enhanced summon.

Enhanced summon is so slow and tentative that only people who can’t walk to the car (eg it’s raining) would use it. Once inside, they’d rather drive than let summon take them further. Summon + human driver = roborental or robo car sharing.

When summon is so good that you want it to also drive out the parking lot, that’s robotaxi behavior: summon + car driving. Obviously summon < summon + car driving, so the easier service is roborental / robo car sharing.

 

[Doggydogworld]

It's possible. That's a 50kWh pack. At $75/kWh at the pack level in 5 years (currently probably uder $100/kWh at the cell level), that's $3750. Add in a $650 drive unit (currently ~$850) and that's $4400, and you've got your powertrain covered. Assuming 5% margins on the barebones 15k vehicle, you have $14,3k to spend, so the rest of the car (incl. labour and depreciation) can be nearly $10k. Should be doable in sufficient bulk with a sufficiently refined production process.

I'm a little confused. What part of this is actually dumb ?

"Our most important assumption is [demand for] electric vehicles, given the battery-cost declines and the new chemistries coming out of Tesla. We believe the average electric-vehicle price will drop below the average auto price in the next two years. In five years, a Toyota Camry will still be around $25,000, but a 200-mile-range electric vehicle will probably be $15,000."
​

Are you saying the price can't go down to $15k in 5 years ? For eg., can a Chinese company make a $15k car with 200 mile EPA range in 5 years ? Or are you saying Tesla won't have a $15k car with 200 mile range ?

ps : A long time back I coined my own "evnow's law", which said the EV range will double every 5 years for the same price. Between 2011 (74 mile Leaf) and 2016 (230 mile Bolt) - for similar price we got 3 times the range.

She's talking about a Camry-class BEV with 200 miles of range.

The entire Camry drivetrain - engine, transmission, exhaust, starter motor, cooling system, etc. is about $4k. A BEV powertrain - motor, gearbox, inverter, wiring and such is about 3k. Might get down to 2k by 2025. Just to reach cost parity you need a 2k battery pack. That's $40/kWh at the pack level. That's below the raw material cost.

A $15k BEV Camry is a fantasy even if the battery pack costs $0.00. If you want to talk about a noisy Chinese 200 mile NEDC econobox with crappy suspension, tires, steering, seats, etc. then 15k might be within reach.

 

[StealthP3D]

weekend timepass:

I have a new hero! I love the way George Hotz thinks. Unsurprisingly, very similar to Tesla's approach. Yes, there are differences but very little. He obviously thinks Tesla is on the right path overall. The guy is brilliant and has a very nice way about him. It's rare to find someone so intelligent and so direct and yet with such an agreeable personality.

 

[Zaxxon]

I saw that. I wonder if they're attaching it permanently to the car, or to the combination of car + owner. They've done both at various points in the past. The latter is cheaper for Tesla in the long run.

It's for the original owner only, per Electrek citing the internal sales memo.