The first Model 3 to arrive Downunder makes me wonder what the Tesla bears who believed there was a huge demand problem are thinking about this. I mean, you would think if there was a demand problem that Tesla would have been shipping Model 3s to Australia last year. Funny how they missed this little detail. And poor Karen in Iceland still can't get her sweaty little palms on one yet.
Please don't forget those of us who've been waiting since 31 March 2016 for ones in Brazil, not to mention that the first Slovenian ones were delivered within the last month, albeit through the Vienna Tesla store, plus another few European countries for which delivery has just started, in volume probably collectively swamped by the first UK deliveries that just happened.
Frankly my opinion is that there are many countries, mostly European, with widespread charging infrastructure already in place in anticipation of a flood of EVs..
Areas that have been essentially EV-free have sometimes widespread infrastructure. (example: Kobarid, Slovenia with a half-dozen free chargers good for >60 km/hr), or how about Tsagkarada, Greece? This is the direct evidence that Elon's point fo view that charging brings EV adoption can be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
As investors we have largely ignored the enormous infrastructure already in place while we've concentrated only on DC Fast. Right now, today, not only are many South and Eastern European countries equipped for easy public charging access, but nearly all of them are major destinations for the annual seasonal migration of Northern Europe to Southern Europe. Until now EV's were largely impractical on these migrations. Now holiday parks from Italy to Greece are exceedingly well-equipped to service all those holiday makers. A specific example is the Bled Castle in Slovenia, equipped in an underground car park with six free EV chargers but not even listed in most networks. That is important because that is one of the most visited and most photographed tourist sites in Europe.
(Google Lake Bled if you don't know it, you'll immediately understand).
There are already Tesla Superchargers in place that allow easy access to everywhere including Slovakia, Hungary and Croatia. Remeber that the next wave will include until Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey, among others. Those markets may not be huge by themselves, but all those travelers to those countries from Germany and the Nordics ARE important.
Maybe this is a bit long but this as as important as is the Trans Canada Highway. The actual traffic is indeed important, but the impact on perceptions is much more so.
Now we have major Oil Companies buying into EV charging networks, not really understood too well by many teslaphiles.
Big Oil taps into electric era
Net: the era of mass adoption is happening before our eyes. Tesla market share will decline precipitously while exponential growth will continue unabated so long as there is capital to support the growth and management ability to manage distribution and support. Frankly, manufacturing is not the problem, distribution and support are the problems. In that context the short term technical challenge will be to make access to native CCS everywhere.
I think almost everyone understated the potential for Tesla. I think the primary short activity is totally misunderstanding that the era of US dominance has ended but Tesla has strong support globally and will be the major US benefactor of the BEV transition. Global winners in 2025: several Chinese (will include at least BYD and the big battery makers, which ones TBD but I think Chery will be one); VW group (cars) and Daimler (trucks and cars), plus Tesla. There will be surprises, and I have no great foresight, Still, there is zero question that the non-Tesla US will not be able to have any dominance.
It remans to be seen what will happen with Mexico and Canada, both of which could end out being net beneficiaries. Already we see Mexican vehicle exports replacing formerly US ones at the margins (e.g. Jeeps, Chevys, Fords to South America and elsewhere). Since most major EV movers from Europe have large investments in Mexico and Canada they could well turn those countries into EV producers, much less likely for the US.
It's too late to change the momentum for 2025. Thus I am redoubling my TSLA bet. If I am wrong my net worth will suffer!!!