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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Oh, how cute. The shorts are having a bonding session tonight:

"View from Montana Skeptic’s NYC apartment... @skabooshka is with us enjoying the view ... We walked by Elon’s past and future courthouse on the way over!"
Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter

We need to have pass a hat around and send over a case of Teslaquila the poor guys need it...
 
I've stopped watching Like Tesla since they're about 80% ads; further, they also don't do a good job of reporting things. Remember when they reported about the "model refresh" last quarter?

Youtube has cut content provider payments by ~ 75%.

Youtubbers either embed ads and/or beg for donations on Patreon, or work for almost free/peanuts.

LikeTesla reports rumors. Things change. Remember when Elon said Autopilot was going to drive a Tesla from LA to NYC?
 
I wonder if an available tow hitch is considered a demand lever? Is that why they are delaying its availability or is it possibly a DOT issue. Ratings etc.

Any guesses on when it will be available?

They still haven't made it available in the US? I guess it's a recognition of how much more demand there is for towing with sedans in Europe than in the US... but I still hope you guys get it soon.

Model 3’s down under just in time for spring. Another country with high gas prices and 220v standard.

View attachment 449394

Argh, come on, Tesla, you missed a perfect opportunity!

C33A1225-CF72-484B-A25E-4EDD4B310120.jpeg
 
That's pretty embarrassing. I'm surprised they released it, even in Beta.

It's been improving really quickly; I guess you didn't see the earlier versions.

One does need to realize that Smart Summon in its current form is:
  • Not designed to read signs / follow traffic rules, beyond "don't hit anyone / anything and try to stay in the driving areas."
  • Not designed to park at its destination; it goes where you tell it to, then stops.
Once you realize and accept that this is what it is in its current version, it actually does a pretty good job. Much better than it used to. And is vastly beyond everyone else's nonexistent summon feature ;)
 
OT: Dorian update

Dorian is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, sustained winds dropping to 165 during this period.

Unhappily for the island of Grand Bahamas, Dorian's forward speed has dropped to 1 mph causing it to dwell over the island and worsing the storm's impacts.

If Dorian's much anticipated turn to the North doesn't occur soon, Freeport (pop. 27K) is directly in the path of the eyewall and its Cat. 5 force winds.

Live updates: Hurricane Dorian slams into the Bahamas - CNN
 
That's pretty embarrassing. I'm surprised they released it, even in Beta.

As I see it, the improvement is in the display of the route. Route planning and display seems new.

A future feature that might be interesting would be the ability to choose which side of the vehicle is presented - passenger side or driver.
 
OT: Dorian update

Dorian is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, sustained winds dropping to 165 during this period.

Unhappily for the island of Grand Bahamas, Dorian's forward speed has dropped to 1 mph causing it to dwell over the island and worsing the storm's impacts.

If Dorian's much anticipated turn to the North doesn't occur soon, Freeport (pop. 27K) is directly in the path of the eyewall and its Cat. 5 force winds.

Live updates: Hurricane Dorian slams into the Bahamas - CNN

Yeah, still a lot of uncertainty about the timing of the recurve, even though there's a lot of confidence in the general path.

AL05_2019090200_ECENS_0-120h.png


AL05_2019090200_GEFS_0-120h.png


Normally stalling would sap a storm of energy, as a hurricane cools the waters under it. But Dorian is entering the Gulf Stream; there's no shortage of fresh warm water moving into his location. :Þ

It's a shame that hurricane mediation isn't as advanced as, say, asteroid deflection. :Þ (I still think Musk should donate one of the early Starship prototypes that survives testing but becomes obsoleted (as we know SpaceX will be iterating quickly) for asteroid deflection.... great PR, and a very practical step for someone worried about safeguarding Earth from future threats)
 
They still haven't made it available in the US? I guess it's a recognition of how much more demand there is for towing with sedans in Europe than in the US... but I still hope you guys get it soon.



Argh, come on, Tesla, you missed a perfect opportunity!

View attachment 449440
Speaking as an Australian, that old chestnut wouldn't endear Tesla to many of us.
 
Here's another Tesla accident in Europe with a fatality (in the other car). Went into oncoming traffic. Unclear if autopilot was involved. Let's see if this gets reported in the mainstream press. I'm trying to keep a track of these to see when the mainstream press stops reporting on Tesla accidents. There were two accidents last weekend, with a fatality in one in the other car. Those did not make the mainstream press. So it appears to be a good sign. Makes sense too. Why should Tesla accidents be singled out when there are thousands of car accidents a day? Though they will probably still keep reporting autopilot accidents and fires.

Fatal Accident: Tesla crashes into oncoming traffic - one dies | Nordkurier.de
Wow... what a smear:
"Many Tesla vehicles have a highly automated system called "Autopilot", which has repeatedly caused serious accidents in the past".
I`ve checked the original German version and it is just as bad.
 
Speaking as an Australian, that old chestnut wouldn't endear Tesla to many of us.

I figured you'd have more of a sense of humour than that. People always post stuff like "Meanwhile in Iceland" with, say, a picture of a guy shaking hands with a polar bear, and it's not like anyone here gets offended by it.

*Shrug*
 
I figured you'd have more of a sense of humour than that. People always post stuff like "Meanwhile in Iceland" with, say, a picture of a guy shaking hands with a polar bear, and it's not like anyone here gets offended by it.

*Shrug*

Gee, I went to Iceland two years ago specifically to shake hands with a polar bear (it was on my bucket list).
I was SO DISAPPOINTED.
 
Gee, I went to Iceland two years ago specifically to shake hands with a polar bear (it was on my bucket list).
I was SO DISAPPOINTED.

You were the victim of fake news. You must go to Norway for this. All our fjords are filled with polar bears coming to see the northern lights. They will shake your hand if you bring your bucket filled with delicious seal meat.
 
Did that last year. Lost three fingers.

Then there's all those stories you hear of people in Denmark meeting tourists who came there expecting to catch some good skiing ;)

On one hand, it's easy to dismiss such cases as tall tales. On the other hand, after having on multiple occasions met people who went to Iceland thinking that they had instead been planning a trip to Ireland, I can't write them off. ;) Also, the endless stream of people who come in the summer and want to see the northern lights... and all the other crazy things tourists expect...

(Also, there apparently actually is a ski slope in Denmark now. Oh sure, it's the roof of a garbage-burning power plant, but.... ;))
 
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Most popular cars sold in August compared to last August in Norway

First two columns are for August labeled "denne mnd". Next two "hittil" for accumulated in 2019.

The TM3 is #1 accumulated but was beaten by the VW Golf in August. Some of those Golf models were the e-Golf.

9wQU2Ib.jpg


Interactive Source: Registreringsstatistikken – Opplysningsrådet for veitrafikken
 
The first Model 3 to arrive Downunder makes me wonder what the Tesla bears who believed there was a huge demand problem are thinking about this. I mean, you would think if there was a demand problem that Tesla would have been shipping Model 3s to Australia last year. Funny how they missed this little detail. And poor Karen in Iceland still can't get her sweaty little palms on one yet.
Please don't forget those of us who've been waiting since 31 March 2016 for ones in Brazil, not to mention that the first Slovenian ones were delivered within the last month, albeit through the Vienna Tesla store, plus another few European countries for which delivery has just started, in volume probably collectively swamped by the first UK deliveries that just happened.

Frankly my opinion is that there are many countries, mostly European, with widespread charging infrastructure already in place in anticipation of a flood of EVs..
Areas that have been essentially EV-free have sometimes widespread infrastructure. (example: Kobarid, Slovenia with a half-dozen free chargers good for >60 km/hr), or how about Tsagkarada, Greece? This is the direct evidence that Elon's point fo view that charging brings EV adoption can be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

As investors we have largely ignored the enormous infrastructure already in place while we've concentrated only on DC Fast. Right now, today, not only are many South and Eastern European countries equipped for easy public charging access, but nearly all of them are major destinations for the annual seasonal migration of Northern Europe to Southern Europe. Until now EV's were largely impractical on these migrations. Now holiday parks from Italy to Greece are exceedingly well-equipped to service all those holiday makers. A specific example is the Bled Castle in Slovenia, equipped in an underground car park with six free EV chargers but not even listed in most networks. That is important because that is one of the most visited and most photographed tourist sites in Europe.
(Google Lake Bled if you don't know it, you'll immediately understand).

There are already Tesla Superchargers in place that allow easy access to everywhere including Slovakia, Hungary and Croatia. Remeber that the next wave will include until Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey, among others. Those markets may not be huge by themselves, but all those travelers to those countries from Germany and the Nordics ARE important.

Maybe this is a bit long but this as as important as is the Trans Canada Highway. The actual traffic is indeed important, but the impact on perceptions is much more so.

Now we have major Oil Companies buying into EV charging networks, not really understood too well by many teslaphiles.
Big Oil taps into electric era

Net: the era of mass adoption is happening before our eyes. Tesla market share will decline precipitously while exponential growth will continue unabated so long as there is capital to support the growth and management ability to manage distribution and support. Frankly, manufacturing is not the problem, distribution and support are the problems. In that context the short term technical challenge will be to make access to native CCS everywhere.

I think almost everyone understated the potential for Tesla. I think the primary short activity is totally misunderstanding that the era of US dominance has ended but Tesla has strong support globally and will be the major US benefactor of the BEV transition. Global winners in 2025: several Chinese (will include at least BYD and the big battery makers, which ones TBD but I think Chery will be one); VW group (cars) and Daimler (trucks and cars), plus Tesla. There will be surprises, and I have no great foresight, Still, there is zero question that the non-Tesla US will not be able to have any dominance.

It remans to be seen what will happen with Mexico and Canada, both of which could end out being net beneficiaries. Already we see Mexican vehicle exports replacing formerly US ones at the margins (e.g. Jeeps, Chevys, Fords to South America and elsewhere). Since most major EV movers from Europe have large investments in Mexico and Canada they could well turn those countries into EV producers, much less likely for the US.

It's too late to change the momentum for 2025. Thus I am redoubling my TSLA bet. If I am wrong my net worth will suffer!!!