Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

From peoples' comments, I guess most of you are all fine with Tesla apparently conceding "Taycan is a better track car than any Tesla you can get for the next year, and that's assuming that there's no schedule slips and no improvement by anyone else in the meantime". E.g., just abandoning the "we make the best EVs, period" halo effect. Also, apparently, fine with reinforcing the (false) notion that's already been hurting S and X sales, that the current (Raven) S and X are dated cars with overheating problems. Also no interest in doing anything to boost S and X sales in the near term so that they can add more shifts and get better utilization out of their existing capital investments.

Okay, so you're fine with that. I'm not. But the crowd has clearly spoken.

Elon is seemingly conceding the point by not publicly putting the Raven out at Nürburging to match the Taycan Turbo S. IF the Raven could do it then it makes sense for the Raven to carry the Tesa flag for today and keep Maximum Plaid in reserve until needed. But Elon is calling up Maximum Plaid now.

 

[Tslynk67]

Elon is seemingly conceding the point by not publicly putting the Raven out at Nürburging to match the Taycan Turbo S. IF the Raven could do it then it makes sense for the Raven to carry the Tesa flag for today and keep Maximum Plaid in reserve until needed. But Elon is calling up Maximum Plaid now.

We don't know if they'll run a stock Raven too. Would be a good idea for them to do so, even if only to get an internal benchmark - if then the time is good, shout about it, if not, iterate on the weaknesses without major changes.

 

[Fact Checking]

Porsche does actually know a thing or two about high speed road racing. Especially at Nurburgring. They spent years engineering and testing the Taycan to do well there, and despite some problems (e.g. battery supplier falling short on promised C rate), their work at the track shows.

You are giving Porsche's EV and automotive technological prowess FAR more credit than they deserve, IMHO.

What happened with the Taycan Nürburgring result is that they turned a mediocre EV platform into a mediocre high-speed 4-door racing result via a series of tricks, with the goal of beating Tesla on one carefully selected track:

• The Nürburgring is a very fast track with an average speed of around 170 km/h. As a comparison, Laguna Seca average speed is 130 km/h. The "problem" with the Nürburgring is that average speed of a 4-door record run is way, way beyond the power output sweet spot for a typical fixed ratio gear EV two motor torque curve. That's the reason why a Model S tops out at around 260 km/h, while a BMW M5 can go beyond 300 km/h.
  
• This means that acceleration from around 100 km/h to 200 km/h and driver skill is what matters to good Nürburgring times - nothing more, nothing less.
  
• Porsche achieved this by slapping a 2-speed transmission on their EV, which shifts the peak power curve up much nearer to the 170 km/h point. Even with that they were still a couple of seconds slower than the Porsche Panamera, which is not exactly a racing car.
• By doing so they also added 0.2-0.3 seconds gear switch delay to their straight line acceleration results. On the Nürburgring it doesn't matter, because they run almost the whole lap in second gear. The 2-speed transmission is effectively a gimmick that only matters if you do the Nürburgring.
• I also suspect the Taycan won't be able to beat the Model S on the Laguna Seca track, due to the gearing delays and the worse mass ratio. The Taycan might not be able to significantly beat the Model 3 Performance either, which has a third of the price ...

Tesla saw this from a mile away and started a plan to have good high speed racing results in 2015, the Roadster 2, which uses 3 motors with 3 different gearing ratios, which distributes power and allows better thrust vectoring as well. They also had two next-gen Model S prototypes available on a moment's notice, and they were on the Nürburgring within one week after the Taycan unveil.

Now that Porsche has executed a PR operation Tour De Force trying to claim that the Taycan is a better platform (it is not), Tesla obviously has to take Nürburgring lap times seriously with the Model S as well, and they do.

First volume deliveries of the Porsche Taycan are not expected until next year, and the waiting list is apparently 1 year long and by Porsche's own claim coming primarily from existing Porsche owners - so in terms of actual sales Tesla's plan for a 3-motor Plaid powertrain is not a bad one.

Had Tesla gone on the Nürburgring preemptively and prepared the Model S for it, Porsche would simply have picked some other track or some other performance metric, with another special physical property to exploit. Preemptively increasing performance will increase capex unnecessarily, warns the competition about your true design limits, and leaves less room for reaction, should the competition improve.

Also, by putting the focus on the Nürburgring Porsche will have a much harder time pivoting to some other performance metric, should the Model S and the Roadster 2 beat them there.

While I agree that Tesla neglected the S somewhat and should probably have done an interior refresh to visually differentiate new Model S's, and I agree that charging speed should at least match the 250 kWh of the Model 3, waiting and reacting is what performance market leaders do, it's what Intel has been doing for decades with great success.

 

[Causalien]

Uhhh. Why isn't tge roadster 2020 prototype at Nurburgring. I want to see it destroy everything.

 

[Fact Checking]

Uhhh. Why isn't tge roadster 2020 prototype at Nurburgring. I want to see it destroy everything.

The Model S/X is far more important to Tesla's cash income than the Roadster 2 will ever be, so if Tesla thinks the next-gen Model S powertrain is able to beat the Taycan on the Nürburgring, emphasizing that is the right short term approach IMHO.

It also falsifies the the "Model S has no future" TSLAQ concern trolling attempts, why would Tesla discontinue a Nürburgring record holding model??

Roadster 2 might set an all time record at the Nürburgring next year, while also having a range of ~1,000 km, which will bring in a new era of "EVs are superior in every metric".

Given that the next-gen "Plaid" model is a more expensive 3-motor configuration, announcing this should also not overly hurt current 2-motor Raven configuration sales. It might have some negative effect on P100D purchases from Tesla owners with an unlimited budget, but IMHO it's far more important to outline the future of the Model S - Tesla's high end offering.

 

[MC3OZ]

Elon is seemingly conceding the point by not publicly putting the Raven out at Nürburging to match the Taycan Turbo S. IF the Raven could do it then it makes sense for the Raven to carry the Tesa flag for today and keep Maximum Plaid in reserve until needed. But Elon is calling up Maximum Plaid now.

Unless the Raven may be able to do it and they are going to try it.

They either already know the Raven can't do it, or it is 50/50, or they know the Raven can do it and are keeping it as a surprise...

I think Maximum Plaid had to come out of hiding sooner or later, they need to do testing on the car... and they are trying to raise the bar...

People where saying the S was dated, this settles that argument...

 

[MC3OZ]

The Model S/X is far more important to Tesla's cash income than the Roadster 2 will ever be, so if Tesla thinks the next-gen Model S powertrain is able to beat the Taycan on the Nürburgring, emphasizing that is the right short term approach IMHO.

It also falsifies the the "Model S has no future" TSLAQ concern trolling attempts, why would Tesla discontinue a Nürburgring record holding model??

Roadster 2 might set an all time record at the Nürburgring next year, while also having a range of ~1,000 km, which will bring in a new era of "EVs are superior in every metric".

All models are important in their own way....

The Roadster appeals to the top of the Market and helps sell other models.

Model S/X appeals to the next rung down and helps sell other models..

As we drop down the ASPs margins are lower, volumes are higher and the contribution to income is higher overall...

But any car that occupies a market segment and makes money is a good thing, and sometimes the contribution extends beyond revenue and margins into marketing, prestige and the Halo effect.

Nothing that they are doing with Model S surprises me at all, I wish some aspects of it could happen quicker, but considering how busy they are Tesla is getting a lot done..

I always expected Model S/X demand to be rebuilt, this is part of that process, back to the original 100K per year should be the target.

 

[Fact Checking]

Unless the Raven may be able to do it and they are going to try it.

I believe there's just two technological solutions that can result in good 4-door sedan Nürburgring results, given today's available li-ion cell chemistries and energy densities:

• 3-motor configuration with three separate gearing ratios that distributes power output over a wide wheel RPM range from 0 to ~250 km/h with ~300 km/h top speed.
  
• 2-speed transmission kludge and running the whole Nürburgring lap in second gear, with good power output in the Nürburgring's 70-250 km/h speed range.

Porsche went for the second option, Tesla chose the first one. Tesla's is obviously the better approach for a number of reasons, and they had two prototypes ready on call, which were on the Nürburgring one week after the Taycan unveil, which suggests that they were anticipating Porsche's PR approach.

Had Tesla gone on the Nürburgring first, Porsche might have picked some other track or other performance benchmark, with some other special property.

In an alternative universe, had the Taycan been able to beat the Model S in straight 0-60 mph performance, we'd probably not have seen a Taycan run on the Nürburgring so close to the unveil, but we'd be seing non-stop variants of acceleration comparisons in various professional and funny street settings, to drive home the message that Porsche is superior. We might have seen a Laguna Seca Taycan run and a PR emphasis on superior handling performance on slow, technical tracks like the Laguna Seca which require driver skill and a nimble car over a wide speed range, not just pure motor power. Porsche has near unlimited PR resources to shape the narrative...

When zero mass-advertising spending underdogs like Tesla are going up against the massive PR resources of the likes of the VW Group, who is the largest mass-advertising spender on the planet, pretty much the only valid approach is to first see what Porsche's PR narrative is, and then to react to it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

fart mode?
Hmm, may have to concede this one to Porsche

Hmm, fahrt mode? Nerdburging? Elon really IS an evil genius. Now where's the monocle and white cat to go with that shiny new space ship?

 

[avoigt]

I believe there's just two technological solutions that can result in good 4-door sedan Nürburgring results, given today's available li-ion cell chemistries and energy densities:

• 3-motor configuration with three separate gearing ratios that distributes power output over a wide wheel RPM range from 0 to ~250 km/h with ~300 km/h top speed.
  
• 2-speed transmission kludge and running the whole Nürburgring lap in second gear, with good power output in the Nürburgring's 70-250 km/h speed range.

Porsche went for the second option, Tesla chose the first one. Tesla's is obviously the better approach for a number of reasons, and they had two prototypes ready on call, which were on the Nürburgring one week after the Taycan unveil, which suggests that they were anticipating Porsche's PR approach.

Had Tesla gone on the Nürburgring first, Porsche might have picked some other track or other performance benchmark, with some other special property.

In an alternative universe, had the Taycan been able to beat the Model S in straight 0-60 mph performance, we'd probably not have seen a Taycan run on the Nürburgring so close to the unveil, but we'd be seing non-stop variants of acceleration comparisons in various professional and funny street settings, to drive home the message that Porsche is superior. We might have seen a Laguna Seca Taycan run and a PR emphasis on superior handling performance on slow, technical tracks like the Laguna Seca which require driver skill and a nimble car over a wide speed range, not just pure motor power. Porsche has near unlimited PR resources to shape the narrative...

When zero mass-advertising spending underdogs like Tesla are going up against the massive PR resources of the likes of the VW Group, who is the largest mass-advertising spender on the planet, pretty much the only valid approach is to first see what Porsche's PR narrative is, and then to react to it.

Once VW and Porsche use their massive Marketing and PR Budgets to position against Tesla, Tesla wins- and that without spending a penny and regardless of the message narrative.

The Nürburgring Nordschleife competition (Porsche just announced they are ready for a 1-on-1 race if Tesla calls it) is already a huge Marketing win for Tesla and will result in higher demand.

 

[MC3OZ]

I now think P100D+ might be a clever "working title" you could interpret it literally as a P100D + "something".
That "something" could be "anything" or "lots of things".
But everyone is going to look at the title and jump to possibly incorrect assumptions, so we may soon know what the car can do, but we may not know the actual specs.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I now think P100D+ might be a clever "working title" you could interpret it literally as a P100D + "something".
That "something" could be "anything" or "lots of things".
But everyone is going to look at the title and jump to possibly incorrect assumptions, so we may soon know what the car can do, but we may not know the actual specs.

Shouldn't it be P100T?

Pronounced pe-oot

 

[Artful Dodger]

It doesn't need another motor - it's already faster than the Porsche Taycan fer crying out loud! All it needs is brakes, tires, stiffer springs, more damping and beefed up cooling to handle extended track usage.

Probably cost $20K more. Unless they want to turn it into a real profit center, then they'll tack on 30K.

Existing P100s are faster 0-60 mph. The average speed for a lap of the 'ring will be about 100 mph. Its acceleration between 60 mph and 150+ mph that matters there.

That's why Tesla is switching to SRPM motors: no speed limits due to back EMF, no 2-speed gearbox needed, less weight, faster lap times. The previous generation AC induction motors are on their way out.

Cheers!

 

[RobStark]

We don't know if they'll run a stock Raven too. Would be a good idea for them to do so, even if only to get an internal benchmark - if then the time is good, shout about it, if not, iterate on the weaknesses without major changes.

They have a good idea what the cars will do.

Again, if Raven had a shot at matching Taycan Turbo S they keep Maximum Plaid secret.

Run both if Raven falls then announce Maximum plaid win.

 

[Fact Checking]

The Nürburgring is a very fast track with an average speed of around 170 km/h. As a comparison, Laguna Seca average speed is 130 km/h. The "problem" with the Nürburgring is that average speed of a 4-door record run is way, way beyond the power output sweet spot for a typical fixed ratio gear EV two motor torque curve. That's the reason why a Model S tops out at around 260 km/h, while a BMW M5 can go beyond 300 km/h.

Just to demonstrate this, here's the BMW M5 dyno chart, one of the best 4-door sedans on the Nürburgring:

We can see that their highest power output is at high RPMs, with a relatively broad range of near maximum power output RPM range of 5,500-7,000 that allows the minimization of gear switching.

A 2-motor, fixed-gear Model S P100D's torque curve on the other hand tops out at around 3,000 RPM:

Note that since the powertrain has fixed gearing to the wheels, the RPM horizontal axis directly corresponds to speed on the track, as in the mph axis dyno chart image above. In the dyno run the powertrain software already balanced the two motors to maximize output at every RPM setting, so this power output is fixed and cannot be changed via gearing. A shift of ~5% can be achieved by using a +5% larger circumference 21" racing wheels instead of 20" wheels - this shifts the power curve to the right by about 5%.

What we can see is that compared to racing car ICE engines, the power output of the P100D starts tapering off at around 80 mph, and loses about 35% of performance at the RPMs that correspond to 150 mph - hurting Nürburgring performance. This has no relevance to street legal speeds on any public road in the U.S., is helpful on Laguna Seca that has ~80 mph average speed, has some relevance on the Autobahn where you can go up to 125 mph safely, but is absolutely crucial on the Nürburgring that averages 105 mp/h and reaches top speeds above ~150 mph.

The 3-motor "Maximum Plaid" powertrain solves this problem at the root: by having a higher gearing a third motor Tesla is able to distribute power and shift up the maximum power output to a flat power curve like they did on the P90 chart, in addition to increasing maximum power as well.

Three motors can also do what 2 motors plus transmission cannot: higher efficiency regen and smart torque vectoring to help cornering performance.

 

[RobStark]

It also falsifies the the "Model S has no future" TSLAQ concern trolling attempts, why would Tesla discontinue a Nürburgring record holding model??

Ouch, I think you just called one of our long standing "well known members" a TSLAQ concern troll.

BTW There is no "slapping" a 2 speed transmission in a high performance BEV. Tesla tried it and couldn't get it to work.


All these cars work for getting you from point A to B. Nürburgring is no more a gimmick than 0-60 or 1/4 mile times.

Every once in a while an American automaker takes the challenge from Europe that American cars can only go straight and can't stop or turn. I am glad Tesla didn't wait 50 plus years.

 

[Sean Wagner]

but they're sure good at collecting cash.

[Re Rivian] a precondition for any very capital intensive startup that wants to prosper, especially if industry expertise or connections come with the cash. It's a different kind of crowd at Rivian than Tesla, and a different kind of company, but that doesn't mean they can't succeed. Only that success will be different.

The Model S/X is far more important to Tesla's cash income than the Roadster 2 will ever be, so if Tesla thinks the next-gen Model S powertrain is able to beat the Taycan on the Nürburgring, emphasizing that is the right short term approach IMHO.

Have to grin every time I think of these low flying Model S's running rings round tracks and the competition. Loving it.

But to repeat myself, I wish the further extended range of Ravens was more of a public relations centerpiece of Tesla communications - very few people know how far these improved S&X's can drive on a full battery, and how many miles they can charge in twenty minutes.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Once VW and Porsche use their massive Marketing and PR Budgets to position against Tesla, Tesla wins- and that without spending a penny and regardless of the message narrative.

The Nürburgring Nordschleife competition (Porsche just announced they are ready for a 1-on-1 race if Tesla calls it) is already a huge Marketing win for Tesla and will result in higher demand.

And, also repeating myself, breaking into the German market is crucial for Tesla's European success. In my opinion. This helps greatly.

What's also boosting German interest in Tesla is the purportedly high price of VW's IDs, if comments are anything to go by.

 

[Fact Checking]

Ouch, I think you just called one of our long standing "well known members" a TSLAQ concern troll.

I didn't - to me it's was always 100% clear that the Model S is a central part of Tesla's strategy, and it's also clear that there's a TSLAQ campaign to cast doubt on that, in an effort to hurt S/X demand. Elon stressed it multiple times that the Model S is the pinnacle of Tesla's 4 door sedans, and if well known members believe otherwise I don't think it's a smart opinion to have - but they are free to voice that opinion and I won't call them TSLAQ concern trolls just for happening to share one of the TSLAQ false narratives.

If you mean @Doggydogworld's point that Tesla didn't do many changes to the Model S for about 3 years then that's mostly true (I'd say ~2 years, there was a major refresh in 2016) but Tesla's stance has clearly changed earlier this year with the Raven refresh.

BTW There is no "slapping" a 2 speed transmission in a high performance BEV. Tesla tried it and couldn't get it to work.

Uhm, that was eons ago, around 2008, when Tesla was basically still a Silicon Valley electronics and software tinkerers startup that added a battery pack to a BIW chassis manufactured by Lotus, right?

All these cars work for getting you from point A to B. Nürburgring is no more a gimmick than 0-60 or 1/4 mile times.

That's nonsense: I happen to go 0-100 km/h several times a day, almost every single day of the year. It matters to me.

I very rarely go 100-250 km/h and couldn't care less about what the car does under those circumstances.

Every once in a while an American automaker takes the challenge from Europe that American cars can only go straight and can't stop or turn. I am glad Tesla didn't wait 50 plus years.

Fully agreed on that point.

 

[Fact Checking]

BTW., the Laguna Seca record run with the Model S prototype:

Tesla on Twitter

Was done with an amateur driver and on a pretty dusty, slippery track. There are at least 2 major slippages visible in the video which added at least another 1 second to the lap time, plus a professional driver could probably shave off another ~2 seconds. He also took good care of the tires and didn't risk the prototype: a more aggressive line with more rubber on the road would shave off seconds ...

So the 1:36.5 could possibly be improved to 1:34-ish times, maybe a bit better - matching performance with the best 2-door Porsche 911 Turbo S performance which is 1:33 ...

That's rather impressive racing performance!