Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Tesla Posts Video of Model S on Track, Says It Has Set Fastest-Four-Door Record with "Amateur Driver"

Fastest-Four-Door Record in Laguna Seca Testing

LOL Car and Driver is so bitchy and snarky. Here’s the “poll” at the end of their bitchy ‘n snarky article:

 

[jhm]

There have been two significant events in the Tesla Killer file this year.

Polestar 2 revealed matching Model 3 value proposition next day Elon cuts Model 3 prices 12%.

Porsche Taycan revealed next day Elon announces Model S heading to Nürburgring.

VW ID.3 is a LEAF/Zoe killer if anything.


Anybody want to guess combined EPA range on the Model S P100D+(Nürburgring Edition)?

Tesla got game. Any red blooded capitalist ought to appreciate that.

 

[FreqFlyer]

When EM says," new chassis prototype", is he referring to a new Model S generation?

 

[KarenRei]

From peoples' comments, I guess most of you are all fine with Tesla apparently conceding "Taycan is a better track car than any Tesla you can get for the next year, and that's assuming that there's no schedule slips and no improvement by anyone else in the meantime". E.g., just abandoning the "we make the best EVs, period" halo effect. Also, apparently, fine with reinforcing the (false) notion that's already been hurting S and X sales, that the current (Raven) S and X are dated cars with overheating problems. Also no interest in doing anything to boost S and X sales in the near term so that they can add more shifts and get better utilization out of their existing capital investments.

Okay, so you're fine with that. I'm not. But the crowd has clearly spoken.

 

[Todd Burch]

From peoples' comments, I guess you're all fine with Tesla apparently conceding "Taycan is a better track car than any Tesla you can get for the next year, and that's assuming that there's no schedule slips and no improvement by anyone else in the meantime". E.g., abandoning the "we make the best EVs, period" halo effect. Also, apparently, fine with reinforcing the (false) notion that's already been hurting S and X sales, that the current (Raven) S and X are dated cars with overheating problems. Also no interest in doing anything to boost S and X sales in the near term so that they can add more shifts and get better utilization out of their existing capital investments.

Okay, so you're fine with that. I'm not. But the crowd has clearly spoken.

I think Tesla fans would prefer that to not be the case. It all depends on whether a Raven is involved with the goings-on at Nürburgring.

 

[KarenRei]

I think Tesla fans would prefer that to not be the case. It all depends on whether a Raven is involved with the goings-on at Nürburgring.

I sincerely hope so. By all means put track tires on it and any of the other random little things that normal people do to their cars when bringing it to the track; the Taycan was certainly itself not stock. But get it out there and post a good time, ideally ahead of the Taycan, and unlike it, posting an official track record. If the list of mods is enough that people might criticize them too much, then temporarily release a "Nürburgring edition" that has them all. But get out there, and get one of today's Model S to take the record.

 

[3Victoria]

From peoples' comments, I guess you're all fine with Tesla apparently conceding "Taycan is a better track car than any Tesla you can get for the next year, and that's assuming that there's no schedule slips and no improvement by anyone else in the meantime". E.g., abandoning the "we make the best EVs, period" halo effect. Also, apparently, fine with reinforcing the (false) notion that's already been hurting S and X sales, that the current (Raven) S and X are dated cars with overheating problems. Also no interest in doing anything to boost S and X sales in the near term so that they can add more shifts and get better utilization out of their existing capital investments.

Okay, so you're fine with that. I'm not. But the crowd has clearly spoken.

I think that opinion is premature. I suspect that the Ravens are good performers. 3's motors etc and better suspension ... likely perform well. We should not compare Teslas to others costing twice as much anyway. Let's see what the next week or two bring to the fore! It should be sweet. Btw -- Teslas remain best value for money, best safety, efficiency, tech, etc ... basically best, in a word.

Did you get your car?

 

[30seconds]

Halo effect in marketing is real. You are either the champion or you are not. This is why Porsche is testing & releasing times before the cars are even shipping.

Tesla just jumped their gun jumping.

 

[Causalien]

I really like the dynamic between TSLA and Porsche. It's a competition based on merit that is drawing media attention to both companies. No matter who wins in the end, both companies are getting free publicity and I am hoping that orders for both increases because of this.

This is a lot healthier than the shadier elements who are competing using parasitic lawmakers who bans sale, or bans services. This is what a capitalist market should be.

 

[StealthP3D]

My pure speculation updated after reading this:
Twitter

Model S P100D+ Plaid Track Edition

* ”Plaid” triple motor like the Roadster
* Aero dynamic chassi with increased down force and cooling
* Brembo brakes
* Bigger ultra wide tyres
* Racing seats
* Track mode
* FSD included

+$49900
0-60mph 2.1s

It doesn't need another motor - it's already faster than the Porsche Taycan fer crying out loud! All it needs is brakes, tires, stiffer springs, more damping and beefed up cooling to handle extended track usage.

Probably cost $20K more. Unless they want to turn it into a real profit center, then they'll tack on 30K.

 

[azaz]

From peoples' comments, I guess most of you are all fine with Tesla apparently conceding "Taycan is a better track car than any Tesla you can get for the next year, and that's assuming that there's no schedule slips and no improvement by anyone else in the meantime". E.g., just abandoning the "we make the best EVs, period" halo effect. Also, apparently, fine with reinforcing the (false) notion that's already been hurting S and X sales, that the current (Raven) S and X are dated cars with overheating problems. Also no interest in doing anything to boost S and X sales in the near term so that they can add more shifts and get better utilization out of their existing capital investments.

Okay, so you're fine with that. I'm not. But the crowd has clearly spoken.

Tesla has really dropped the ball on S/X sales this year. How they couldn’t see the need for a refresh or why they felt the need to delay the interior refresh is beyond me

 

[Remus]

2. Analysts will expect higher S/X margins next year with people springing for Plaid variants. Also, at the last quarterly call, Elon almost made it sound like the S would be getting taken out to pasture: “we don’t really need the S anymore”, etc. This reaffirms that the S has a future, and will bring back the S halo on the Tesla brand until the Roadster is out.

So now we know that they had a team working on this beasty S all along while he pretended to have given up on it! Only to use VW's marketing money to create almost free publicity for Tesla!

Now the shorts would again scream "fraud, liar"! but I guess this time their enrichment commission can't be much of a help anymore.

looking back to a year ago, how has Elon changed his public persona!

 

[Dwdnjck]

Stock going plaid tomorrow?

 

[anthonyj]

From peoples' comments, I guess most of you are all fine with Tesla apparently conceding "Taycan is a better track car than any Tesla you can get for the next year, and that's assuming that there's no schedule slips and no improvement by anyone else in the meantime". E.g., just abandoning the "we make the best EVs, period" halo effect. Also, apparently, fine with reinforcing the (false) notion that's already been hurting S and X sales, that the current (Raven) S and X are dated cars with overheating problems. Also no interest in doing anything to boost S and X sales in the near term so that they can add more shifts and get better utilization out of their existing capital investments.

Okay, so you're fine with that. I'm not. But the crowd has clearly spoken.

What are you saying? The Model S has 370 miles of range and is faster 0-60. It’s half the price too. Supercharging network, OTA updates, and sometimes the car lights on fire so you can cook marshmallows on the go

Model S sales suck because the 3 is just so good. They will pick up again as EV adoption grows. I think it’s due for an interior refresh and a rear tail light refresh, but overall a much better car than the Toucan

 

[FreqFlyer]

"Yes. To be clear, Plaid powertrain is about a year away from production & applies to S,X & Roadster, but not 3 or Y. Will cost more than our current offerings, but less than competitors."

Hmmm, so not available on Tesla's current and most capable platform, but will be on a 7 and 5 year old platform and a future one not released yet? Not buying it, this speaks to a new S and X generation. Anyone want to bet that the next S/X and Roadster will be closely related.

This is all speculation of course since I do not see how Tesla (as efficient as they are in the R&D arena) can bring the Y, Tesla Truck, Semi, Roadster and new S/X in 12 months, not even 24 months.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Let's rank today's gains vs the past (Note: TSLA sample data begins May 07, 2015)

• Today was the highest Volume day since July 25, 2019
  • 10,042,780 shares today
  • 22,418,252 on 07/25/19
  
  
• Today's Volume was 0.85 Standard Deviations above the sample Mean
  • Mean: 6,535,684 shares traded per day
  • Std Dev: +/- 4,120,914 shares
  
  
• Largest gain from Open to Close since June 04, 2019
  • $9.73 per share gain today
  • $12.50 per share gain on 06/04/19
  
  
• For the sub-sample 'Days with Gains'
  • Mean: $4.73 per share
  • Std Dev: +/- $4.55 per share
  • Today's Gain was 1.10 Std Dev above the mean
  
  
• Ranking Today:
  • Today's absolute Gain ($9.72) ranks 7th in 2019
  • Today's relative Gain (4.09%) ranks 5th in 2019

So, today was a very good day for 2019, and the best among a string of the last 12 days. As the following YTD Candlestick chart shows, TSLA is now trading above both the Upper-Bollinger Band and the 50-Day Moving Avg. The next technical milestone at play in a rising SP scenario is the 200-Day MA, which is currently at $267.86 (decreased $8.46 over last 14 sessions, or ~$0.60/day)

TSLA is showing strength heading into the 2019Q3 Production and Deliveries report, expected around Oct 2nd or in ~14 trading days. The chart above shows we are on a trajectory to reach the 200-Day MA on or before the P&D report, and that the MA(200) itself may be around $260 by then.

One obvious scenario is that the SP runs up to MA(200) by Oct 2nd, then breaks out to the high side if numbers are good. Another scenario has a slower run-up into the 2019Q3 Financial Results and Conference Call, followed by a move based on the news.

Kabuki theatre anyone? At any rate, it will be an interesting next few months as Traders jostle for short-term positions and Investors position themselves for long-term gains. GLTA!

Cheers!

P.S. (G-Cube coming)

 

[StealthP3D]

Dual rear model 3 type motors will provide better handing via torque vectoring and better thermal management for the ring/ autobahn. However, Unless the pack gets a boost in output, the peak power is going to be roughly the same along with the 0-60 time (traction limited). Roadster has at least double the max power from its 200kWh pack.

The torque vs. efficiency curves of most electric motors shows that a motor at half throttle is considerably more efficient than one at full throttle. So there should be some gain in output with an additional motor, even if the peak current remains about the same.

 

[kengchang]

Busy busy busy

 

[MC3OZ]

From peoples' comments, I guess most of you are all fine with Tesla apparently conceding "Taycan is a better track car than any Tesla you can get for the next year, and that's assuming that there's no schedule slips and no improvement by anyone else in the meantime". E.g., just abandoning the "we make the best EVs, period" halo effect. Also, apparently, fine with reinforcing the (false) notion that's already been hurting S and X sales, that the current (Raven) S and X are dated cars with overheating problems. Also no interest in doing anything to boost S and X sales in the near term so that they can add more shifts and get better utilization out of their existing capital investments.

Okay, so you're fine with that. I'm not. But the crowd has clearly spoken.

There is an opportunity to run a regular P100D Raven around the track as well.... and if that is faster tell people about it.

IMO at least one Model S will be faster the P100D+, the P100D is a 50/50 call, but I would try it...

Depending on how close the P100D gets to the Taycan time and if it beats it, should determine if it is made public... That is what I would do, it is obvious this has been planned for months, so they may have thought of it,.

 

[Carl Raymond]

It doesn't need another motor - it's already faster than the Porsche Taycan fer crying out loud! All it needs is brakes, tires, stiffer springs, more damping and beefed up cooling to handle extended track usage.

But wouldn’t you like torque vectoring with that?

Magna shows Tesla that three motors are better than two when it comes to corners