Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

Exclusive: Saudi Arabia floats change to Japan oil supply, sparks concern

This might be good for sales to Japan.

 

[JRP3]

For one they need a lot of cells, which are probably not going to be Panasonic's but Tesla's own.

Tesla has no capacity to manufacture their own cells. They'd need to make massive investments in machinery now if they were intending to be up and running making their own cells by next year. Also I think there is a good chance the Semi will be using NMC chemistry for the higher cycle life.

 

[mongo]

Tesla has no capacity to manufacture their own cells. They'd need to make massive investments in machinery now if they were intending to be up and running making their own cells by next year. Also I think there is a good chance the Semi will be using NMC chemistry for the higher cycle life.

It seems like they are making those investments when 'show and tell' battery investor day combines with 'say no more, wink winknudge nudge, cat's in the bag, we're controlling our own destiny '

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It seems like they are making those investments when 'show and tell' battery investor day combines with 'say no more, wink winknudge nudge, cat's in the bag, we're controlling our own destiny '

Yeah it was pretty obvious to anyone that watched the annual shareholder meeting that Tesla has a plan for battery cell production.

 

[MC3OZ]

Yeah it was pretty obvious to anyone that watched the annual shareholder meeting that Tesla has a plan for battery cell production.

Yes, and this is almost certainly a plan that scales cell production to match plans for vehicle production and energy storage...

And in the case of Model 3 and Model Y recognises Model Y might be sharing a pool of cells with Model 3, so in that case the plan has to track total Model 3 + Model Y production...

If they can add cell production in relatively small increments relatively efficiently and quickly, they don't have a problem... otherwise they need to plan carefully, and will hit production constraints from time to time...

 

[mrmage]

Reports of Autopilot asking people if they disengaged due to a fault or whether it was planned.

Tesla_saves_lives on Twitter

Crowd-sourced fault labeling It's unclear whether this is some sort of special developer mode thing or not.

It's hard to see them not including it. This is too beneficial for FSD.

 

[Artful Dodger]

800 kWh for 500 mile range would be incredible.

Lol, just figured this out. My 1992 Oldsmobile used 470 kWh (equiv. of gasoline) to drive 500 miles. 'course that was was TWO people on board. Semi does this for less than 2x the energy, 0x carbon, at 20x the gross weight?! While carrying 100x the payload?!

How do you say oofta in cowboy-ese? Let them truckers roll 10-4.

 

[RobStark]

Model 3 cannibalizing Model S sales should not have been a surprise to Tesla. Model X sales decreasing too was a surprise to me (but again should not have been to Tesla/Elon).

I really hope we don't see the same pattern with 3 and Y. If they are projecting 150,000 Model 3s/year and expect 200,000 Model Ys/year, I hope they are not adding them up and expecting to sell 350,000/year. There will be significant cannibalizing of Model 3 from Model Y. I expect Model 3 sales to decrease significantly like S/X once Y become available.

For global demand? This is just silly.

Steady state demand will eventually be at least 800k Model 3s per year plus 1.5m Model Y per year.

Model S and Model X eventual steady state demand is at least 100k combined per year. They just need product differentiation. Comparable interiors and cabin noise to vehicles in class. Significantly longer real world ranges,faster charging, and/or superior tech to Gen III(3 & Y). Gen II has been stuck on 100 kWh for quite a while now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This just in from our well known Nevada local and GF1 Outsider:

Carsonight | an hour ago

"I can give you a timeline on Panasonic at the Nevada Gigafactory, as opposed to those such as econparagon who like to spew nonsense. My information is factory floor, from people who work there.

"There were four lines of battery cell machines, 14 machines per line, when Tesla started production of the Model 3 in July 2017, and Panasonic was burying Tesla in cells as Tesla struggled with the malfunctioning, third party battery pack machines.

"There were an additional six lines added over the course of the next year, and each of these 10 lines could produce 300k cells per day each. Beginning in September 2018 Panasonic installed three additional lines capable of 400k cells per day each.

"Panasonic is now out of room at GF1, but is upgrading the 10 original lines to 400k plus cells per day each. This will support ~10K Model 3 /Ys per week and will be the limit of GF1 until it is expanded, barring some new break through."​

Sounds like Model 3/Y bty cells capacity is secured, while the source for Semi, Pickup, and Roadster cells is not yet revealed. Its almost like we need a battery and powertrain investor day. Say now, what could that entail...

 

[Ulmo]

Regarding the owner and 3rd party repairability of Tesla cars, this is what most of us who have thought this through have been saying about our ability to repair Teslas ever since the Model S came out. My point is that I think it affects Tesla's bottom line negatively to prevent owner and 3rd party repairs. Since this is well known at this point, I'm sure it's mostly baked into the stock price.

I have already said owner and 3rd party repairability of Teslas should improve while I witnessed problems people had here on the forums back when Model S came out and since, and it applies to all their S3X-model cars. I experienced it myself when I owned one in 2016-2017. Jack Rickard does an excellent job explaining it in the below linked video, as he's done many times in the past as well, and it echos what many other people who work on Teslas have said, but the unique part that Jack and I are most in sync with that I think is relevant to this investors' forum is how this anti-repairability hurts Tesla's bottom line, but he's a better explainer of those things than I am, since he puts together words better than I:

http://media3.ev-tv.me/news052419-1280.mp4

In case you prefer the YouTube interface, that's here:

I caution you a few things about Jack Rickard:

1. He prefers not to have a lot of listeners and subscribers, because he wants an elite group of watchers who are technical innovators and tinkerers, and he intentionally crafts his videos in such a manner as to naturally cause fewer people to ultimately maintain an interest in watching his videos. Please, if you have any inkling not to watch the above linked videos, then please amplify that inkling and don't watch the videos, to benefit him and his ability to make our world better.
2. He talks slowly, so some people who are able to listen to and linguistically comprehend spoken word, linguistically contemplate, conceptually comprehend, and conceptually contemplate and imagine much faster can speed up the videos quite a bit. I find that the real mental processing of the real concepts involved takes about the same amount of time as it takes for him to talk about them, so the molasses slow speed of his speech is just perfect for the topics being addressed.
3. He puts several topics in one video. The part I'm referencing is the beginning of the video. As soon as he goes to the next topic, it is no longer what I'm referencing in this message.

Jack is the wise old man in the videos in case you don't know which one I'm referencing.

Similarly, the point I'm making is one that he makes well in that video. I have no particular need for everyone under the sun to realize it: it offers the stock liquidity if some investors understand and some don't (especially since it's currently what I consider a negative for the stock and God knows we don't need more negatives, despite the fact that this one is a genuine one and most negatives are totally fake FUD), and it offers the company some avenue for improvement if enough high-level-enough-managers of the company get their butt in gear for this matter (which I would consider a positive for the stock). A decision of this particular level would likely require Board and CEO approval and further take several months to implement and further several months after that to perfect and prove, and further several months after that for market response to become apparent, and further several months after that for some analysts to start noticing and several months after that for them to comprehend it, so I'm in no illusion of a swift remedy on any level. Personally, I don't hold much $TSLA stock any more, so my main interest is in success of the EV field in general with Tesla being the specific portion of that which I am concerned with (i.e., with peoples' abilities to fix their Tesla cars), but it still affects the stock, even more so now that the other companies are really competing and any one of them may get a clue about this issue any day now. I won't hold my breath for any of them on this matter, though.

 

[Fred42]

This just in from our well known Nevada local and GF1 Outsider:

Carsonight | an hour ago

"I can give you a timeline on Panasonic at the Nevada Gigafactory, as opposed to those such as econparagon who like to spew nonsense. My information is factory floor, from people who work there.

"There were four lines of battery cell machines, 14 machines per line, when Tesla started production of the Model 3 in July 2017, and Panasonic was burying Tesla in cells as Tesla struggled with the malfunctioning, third party battery pack machines.

"There were an additional six lines added over the course of the next year, and each of these 10 lines could produce 300k cells per day each. Beginning in September 2018 Panasonic installed three additional lines capable of 400k cells per day each.

"Panasonic is now out of room at GF1, but is upgrading the 10 original lines to 400k plus cells per day each. This will support ~10K Model 3 /Ys per week and will be the limit of GF1 until it is expanded, barring some new break through."​

Sounds like Model 3/Y bty cells capacity is secured, while the source for Semi, Pickup, and Roadster cells is not yet revealed. Its almost like we need a battery and powertrain investor day. Say now, what could that entail...

Thanks. This suggests that if cell manufacturing capacity using Maxwell tech is now being built, it's happening somewhere other than the Panasonic side of GF1.

 

[Thekiwi]

Model 3 cannibalizing Model S sales should not have been a surprise to Tesla. Model X sales decreasing too was a surprise to me (but again should not have been to Tesla/Elon).

I really hope we don't see the same pattern with 3 and Y. If they are projecting 150,000 Model 3s/year and expect 200,000 Model Ys/year, I hope they are not adding them up and expecting to sell 350,000/year. There will be significant cannibalizing of Model 3 from Model Y. I expect Model 3 sales to decrease significantly like S/X once Y become available.

There will be some cannibalisation from y on 3 I agree. However too early to tell how much considering market for EVs is constantly growing, and the model 3 will still remain significantly cheaper than the Y for quite some time. Also it’s possible the $35k SR is profitable enough at that point to roll out internationally which will significantly boost demand for 3 (not to mention lack of tariffs on China produced cars, and eventually EU produced vehicles.)

 

[Carl Raymond]

Thanks. This suggests that if cell manufacturing capacity using Maxwell tech is now being built, it's happening somewhere other than the Panasonic side of GF1.

Well if that’s mystery 1, and mystery 2 is what phase 2 at GF3 is for...
just wondering out loud.

Edit: Note that the first 3000 packs per week that GF3 produce magically appear in Nevada. i.e. They don’t get shipped to China.

 

[mblakele]

There will be some cannibalisation from y on 3 I agree. However too early to tell how much considering market for EVs is constantly growing, and the model 3 will still remain significantly cheaper than the Y for quite some time. Also it’s possible the $35k SR is profitable enough at that point to roll out internationally which will significantly boost demand for 3 (not to mention lack of tariffs on China produced cars, and eventually EU produced vehicles.)

The Y will be an upsell from the 3, not cannibalisation, because ASP will be higher.

 

[heltok]

I think Freemont will go from 6k Model3/week to 4k Model 3 + 4k Model Y and China will go from 0 to 3k Model 4 + 3k Model Y in about 2years. Thus Tesla will go from 7.5k cars/week to 16k cars/week in about two years. While Model Y ramps up to 15k/week and Model 3 stays around 7k/week Tesla will start moving some 3&Y production from Freemont to GF4 EU and start pickup production in US, then add these to China and lastly to Europe. I see this rollout, move old lines from Freemont to China/Europe, add new product lines, upgrade lines, send old lines to China/Europe etc. Eventually Chinese/Europe lines will also be upgraded, but this will happen while they are simultaneously producing with tested lines.

 

[Ulmo]

Regarding

Oh boy. In that video he ended with a rather uplifting statement about Tesla, and a case for Apple buying it. Financially and innovatively it makes perfect sense if they are able to make Elon CEO of Apple and get rid of that crappy Tim in a Tesla takeover of Apple ("merger"). I've always recognized that. However, I've never advocated it, and in fact actively fought against it, because so far Apple has been employing slaves and seems unwilling to support the freedoms of USA and very willing to support the slavery of China, extending that immorality to censorship and brainwashing on their own information platforms even in "free" USA. I've considered Elon's factory in China to be agnostic regarding slavery, since cars and batteries are a utilitarian necessity, and don't increase slavery, whereas information systems do make a huge impact on whether or not they increase freedom and reduce slavery (free and open communications) or alternatively decrease freedom and increase slavery (censored communication plus computer AI brainwashing of slaves). That's why I've never wanted the successful expansion of human kind as increased by the presence of Musk Industries to be associated with the pro-slavery Apple, and I'm not changing my position on that. I do, however, acknowledge Jack's point about everything regarding the financial and innovative fit of the two companies provided that they fully understand Tim has to go and Elon would have to lead it, and that they would need a full time engineering-first CEO-like positions for at least 3 companies at that point as good as or better than Elon to fully make use of all of its divisions in my opinion to realize that. I am not in possession of an exact way to implement such a contradictory statement of having only one CEO and simultaneously at least three engineering-first CEOs, so I leave it up to the market and the companies and people involved to process, if that's the way they go. I reiterate that I'm against an Apple-Tesla merger for the reasons I stated, regardless of my comments about the details of implementing such a merger with any level of relative success.

 

[Fact Checking]

Both FC and Doggy make the Semi sound a relatively straightforward step up from Model 3 from a development perspective. And with an initial ramp that will necessarily be slow due to customer behaviour.

So why is it taking so long?

I believe Tesla is delaying and downplaying the Semi, because they don't have the battery capacity to reach serious production volumes, nor the capex to build a big Semi factory.

Putting out a few hundred units would only convince an even bigger segment of the automotive industry to try kill Tesla even harder. It would allow teardowns and realization of true Semi specs. Most truck makers are still in a stage of denial IMO. Tesla also didn't need the distraction from a too broad product palette.

Also, product cycles in the automotive industry are this long and even longer, and we know what happened last time when Tesla attempted to expand too fast.

Anyway, I think Elon has long ago moved on from the "convince automakers to move to EVs" stance to a "transition the world to EVs, with Tesla the market leader" strategy.

 

[Fact Checking]

Reports of Autopilot asking people if they disengaged due to a fault or whether it was planned.

Tesla_saves_lives on Twitter

Crowd-sourced fault labeling It's unclear whether this is some sort of special developer mode thing or not.

I believe the Reddit consensus was that this was with an ancient firmware version of a salvaged Model S, and that newer firmware probably does this automatically.

Which is good IMO:

• It's not particularly safe to pop up a red message and distract the driver,
• and the answer to the question of why Autopilot was disengaged isn't binary either: there's a third important category of "I disengaged Autopilot because I know it will misbehave on this road section in the near future" as well.

Voice report is what drivers can use to report anomalous Autopilot behavior, without taking eyes off the road, and at a time of their convenience.

 

[kengchang]

Vincent on Twitter

Rumor: Estimated that the first group of the Made in China Model 3 will be delivered in November.

 

[Fact Checking]

Vincent on Twitter

Rumor: Estimated that the first group of the Made in China Model 3 will be delivered in November.

Sounds plausible, judging from the drone videos:

• 220KV substation is clearly not ready yet, and it's required to operate all machines at once.
• Truck loading ports and the road network around the factory is not fully ready yet. Focus is clearly inside the building now - which progress we have little insight into.
• Manufacturing workers started arriving this week - they need training and need to get familiar with the production stations and other equipment.
• Supply chain can only ramp up in a careful lock-step with production ramp up: Tesla doesn't want to end up with a lot of unused parts piling up if there's a ramp up delay - and many suppliers need weeks to ramp up themselves.
• 1-2 quarters of time from the first units produced to full speed production is to be expected IMO.