Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Pezpunk]

The mission is not to make as much money as they can. The mission is to sell as many cars as they can.

you are deluding yourself if you think Tesla isn't selling every single performance model they can talk someone into buying.

 

[StealthP3D]

You may believe US Model 3 sales would be the same as last year if Tesla simply produced more cars, but the evidence shows otherwise.

This is not "declining demand", however, as the bears love to claim. Last year's Model 3 sales were mostly based on Tesla filling pent-up US demand. This quarter was almost entirely ongoing demand. It makes no sense to compare the two numbers.

This! Investors and shorts ignore this data at their own peril. The real story in the US sales numbers is not that it may have declined slightly from last year, it's that it's *new* demand. These are not the original reservation holders, they are new customers. All from word of mouth advertising. That word of mouth advertising continues to grow.

This blows the short thesis that Model 3 sales would dry up to almost nothing once they burned through the reservation holders list completely out of the water! It was always a false narrative but now even a half-wit can see it.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla is safely over 1% US market share. Goodcarbadcar.net uses InsideEVs estimate for US sales.
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/u-s-auto-sales-figures-by-brand/

 

[FreqFlyer]

Since this teenager is a subject here, you might find this interesting from Putin-

"Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday dismissed Greta Thunberg’s recent speech at the United Nations, where the Swedish teenage climate activist denounced world leaders for failing to combat climate change.

“I may disappoint you, but I don’t share the common excitement about the speech by Greta Thunberg,” Putin said at an energy forum in Moscow, according to Reuters’s translation of his remarks.

“No one has explained to Greta that the modern world is complex and different,” Putin continued. “People in Africa or in many Asian countries want to live at the same wealth level as in Sweden.”

Putin said children who are passionate about environmental issues, like Thunberg, should be supported. But he also accused her parents of exploiting that passion.

“When someone is using children and teenagers in personal interests, it only deserves to be condemned,” Putin said. “I’m sure that Greta is a kind and very sincere girl. But adults must do everything not to bring teenagers and children into some extreme situations.”"

Greta Thunberg doesn't understand 'complex and different' modern world, says Putin

Some world leaders do not take kindly to be talked down too by a teenager apparently.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Personal anecdotes about working on cars (full disclosure I did it and got satisfaction from the effort and result) aside....I predict a green close today. The last hour has been a steady climb up.

I bet it'll be capped right before green, and stay there until close. The Post-market will rocket if the results come out shortly after.

 

[Pezpunk]

why are a Russian dictator's thoughts on Greta Thunberg pertinent to anyone at all, let alone to this thread?

 

[larmor]

TSLA holding up exceptionally well against ugly macros and extremely bearish note by Adam Jonas: Morgan Stanley Predicts Q3 Deliveries Miss For Tesla, Capitulates On Company's Autonomous Timeline

He's predicting 91,346 deliveries for Q3. Looking forward to seeing how that goes for him

I actually like the Jonas note. It is hard to deliver alot of cars and 91k is great and should be easy to beat. While tesla acts like a phone or app company, they are delivering durable goods. Better to be careful, stay near target, and have an exceptional delivery experience than to rush to just beat numbers. If tesla is off by 2k to 5k cars, it is only really up to 5%, does it really matter? They are going to deliver those cars anyways, and these are cars not phones, pizzas, or books. Better to under expect and do a great job at that. And really don't see boatloads (intended and unintended diction) of cancellations.

Really like that tesla is going to move forward with plaid edition Model S, keeps it at the cutting edge. Not every one gets a 7 series or S class MB, but having a halo car will bring in regular buyers for example of 3 series bmw/c class MB.

 

[Fact Checking]

She looked very sheepish as she admitted she had switched *entirely* to DSLR's years ago. She had a bunch of DSLR's and was more successful than ever. Even in the realm of artistic photography.

Great story!

Note that maybe it was you who set the seeds of doubt in her and accelerated the process of adaptation and going from analog film to digital - and helped her succeed in a small way. I've seen it happen too: many people react negatively to change when exposed to it for the first time, especially if it's related to their main field of expertise.

So I try to do what you apparently did: plant the seeds of doubt, without pushing the topic to a breaking point. They leave convinced that they won the argument, and in a few cases, a lot later, change their minds.

Doesn't work with politics though - only with topics where technological advances create new facts.

I am 100% convinced that EVs are such a topic and that adoption will not be a gradual trickle, but an eventual avalanche.

 

[ggies07]

many people react negatively to change when exposed to it for the first time, especially if it's related to their main field of expertise.

I literally just had a heated discussion with the HS chemistry teacher here at my school on nuclear vs. solar/wind/storage. It's weird to sit there and listen to this man, who is very educated in his field, downgrade EVs and renewables. Giving the strawman reason that everything made comes from dirty energy, blah blah blah.....this was not our first tango....sigh....I sent him a bunch of articles.... He thinks the discussions are fun, so hopefully he will get the info coming at him.....

 

[Antares Nebula]

UPDATE 1-U.S. auto safety agency notes Tesla accidents with Smart Summon feature

Asked about reports of crashes involving the feature, NHTSA said it “is aware of reports related to Tesla’s Summon feature. We are in ongoing contact with the company and we continue to gather information. Safety is NHTSA’s top priority and the agency will not hesitate to act if it finds evidence of a safety-related defect.”

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

There is some truth to the Tesla fires regarding S and X. Model 3 seems to have no such problem.

Look at IIHS's non-crash related fire incident report:

[...]

BEVs only:
- S and X are "leading" again. I3, Leaf, Bolt did not even make it to the list.

https://www.iihs.org/media/c93b98d8-6a7d-44a1-810e-4468ec539e05/uIu4tg/HLDI Research/Fire losses/HLDI_FireLosses_1218.pdf

#1: Many EVs are not included because the limit for inclusion is 20,000 insured vehicle years. They don’t sell well enough in the US to make that. Model X had 35,000 years, Model S 42,000 years.

#2: The report shows that many, many ICE cars have a higher chance of spontaneous combustion than Model S and X. Where are the media reports on those fires?

#3: The scores for Model S and X are based on 10 fires each, which are such low numbers that it is statistically very risky to draw conclusions.

 

[CorneliusXX]

If you clicked, there is a video inside. Blindness is your choice though.

yes, an anecdotal video.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I disagreed with this and will explain why.

In or around 1999 an old friend of my wife visited our house. She had been a struggling professional photographer for years. Her true love was photographic artistry but she would grind out whatever kind of assignments she got to pay the bills. I had just purchased my first digital point/shoot camera and was amazed at the ease, color saturation, etc. of digital photography. All 1.2 Megapixels of it. Or was it less? I don't remember. I understood that the resolution and light sensitivity was getting better every year. I wasn't ready to buy a DSLR because it wasn't there yet and was still too expensive.

I made an off-hand comment that in the future she would be using a DSLR. She looked at me like I had just committed a mortal sin and told me she would *never* use a DSLR, even if they improved greatly. DSLR's would *never* give the "film" look which was obviously the best look and the one every artist desired. Digital was too "digital" it would never look natural and, while it might replace film for journalism and such, it could *never* replace film for fine art photography. She went on to elaborate on how processing the film at different temperatures and different times with different developers could maximize the result and was an art/science in and of itself. When I suggested that, with enough pixels, the same thing could be done digitally she just scoffed and let me know I didn't know what I was talking about. She was an *artist* not a techy. The two could never meet in her field.

FF 10 years: I hadn't seen this woman since the last time she chewed me out for knowing nothing about art and artistic photography. She came by to visit. One of the first things I asked her was if she was still shooting film. She looked very sheepish as she admitted she had switched *entirely* to DSLR's years ago. She had a bunch of DSLR's and was more successful than ever. Even in the realm of artistic photography.

My point is, I had never met a bigger film snob, she was a film snob before digital was even a thing and the transformation happened really fast. She previously *loved* the darkroom and watching her images develop under the dim light of the darkroom. I think it will largely be the same way with cars. Yes, collectible cars will decline in value (and yet, some will still be worth millions), people will realize they didn't really enjoy being up to their elbows in oil every time they needed to refresh the oil (but there will still be a small minority that carry on the dirty, expensive tradition). Gas cars are not going away, they are just losing their luster and their following.

Just saying, sometimes you attract more bees with honey rather than vinegar. In my opinion unending vitriol is counterproductive.

But...in other news, TSLA is holding it's own today under less that ideal circumstances.

Dan

 

[Pezpunk]

If you clicked, there is a video inside. Blindness is your choice though.

so, you dont know what the word "anecdotal" means. not surprising.

 

[mongo]

“When someone is using children and teenagers in personal interests, it only deserves to be condemned,” Putin said. “I’m sure that Greta is a kind and very sincere girl. But adults must do everything not to bring teenagers and children into some extreme situations.”"

Da, like avoiding a climate catastrophe. Get on it!

 

[acoste]

so, you dont know what the word "anecdotal" means. not surprising.

anecdotal = (of an account) not necessarily true or reliable, because based on personal accounts rather than facts or research.


there are too many "smart" summon videos out there which show the same behavior. Calling them all fake is your blindness.

 

[Pezpunk]

anecdotal = (of an account) not necessarily true or reliable, because based on personal accounts rather than facts or research.


there are too many "smart" summon videos out there which show the same behavior. Calling them all fake is your blindness.

haha and AGAIN you prove you don't know what "ancedotal" means. hint: nobody's saying the videos are fake.

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. Here is the latest news:

• Europe excl UK is now mostly known because all countries except France have released their Sep numbers. We have 93% of the registration count for Q3 for this group. If we assume the same as June for France in September (which appears to be a very good idea), the total for Q3 will end up at 24,380 units compared to my estimate at 24,177 which you can see in the last column in this table. So, that part looks good.
• UK: Unfortunately, UK numbers won't be available before Tesla releases the official numbers. We might find out Model 3 sales on 4 Oct.
• China: Based on my research, S/X/3 sales were around 10,700 units in Q1 and 10,400 in Q2 and the first two months of Q3 were just below Q2's first two months which suggests around 10K for Q3. S/X sales there are declining but Model 3 sales are increasing. Of course, I have done a detailed calculation and I've come up with these numbers: 1300 S/X, 8706 Model 3.
• US: I'm aware that insideEVs US delivery estimate for Q3 is 54,700 units. However, I still like my 50,477 estimate. I don't know which one is more accurate. Interestingly, both of our S+X estimates are similar. They have 7,850 for S+X vs mine at 7,556. This suggests that my global S+X estimate at 14,221 might be a realistic estimate. S+X was 17,722 in Q2. That's all I have. Cheers

 

[riverFox]

Did they ever publish anything based on the first survey?

Email content below:

Dear Tesla owner,

Thank you for participating in Bloomberg’s survey of Model 3 owners. The response has been tremendous, and we are excited to share the results soon. However, we need just a few more minutes of your time!

Tesla just released one of its biggest software updates ever, known as Software Version 10.0, or simply V10, which includes a new Autopilot feature called Smart Summon as well as additional entertainment options.

Have you had a chance to try out V10? If so, we have a few short follow-up questions that will help us complete our analysis. You can submit your answers using the following link: [removed]

Thank you for your time and participation in the project.

Best,

Tom Randall and Dean Halford
Bloomberg News

 

[204EV]

UPDATE 1-U.S. auto safety agency notes Tesla accidents with Smart Summon feature

Asked about reports of crashes involving the feature, NHTSA said it “is aware of reports related to Tesla’s Summon feature. We are in ongoing contact with the company and we continue to gather information. Safety is NHTSA’s top priority and the agency will not hesitate to act if it finds evidence of a safety-related defect.”

David Shepardson - author
Quick Google search brings up only hate articles about tesla accidents and autopilot issues. Writer for Business Insider.