Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

My guess: crash test prototype units?

With multi coat red paint?

 

[KarenRei]

As ARK sells into strength to take profit. They will have $$ to buy any future dip well played ....

Their investment strategy does this automatically. If you have a lot of different plays you're interested in, it's a pretty sound one. Sell any stock whenever you exceed a percentage threshold, use the cash to buy whichever of your other stocks you feel is most undervalued. The net result is, beyond diversification, automatic profit taking, with the profits being directed into what you think is oversold.

 

[JRP3]

Going from short to long only takes a couple of clicks.

For some it would take a fundamental personality change first.

 

[Intl Professor]

I agree with your overall statement, but
on the first part of this (before the FSD), I think we have a very strong opposition in the U.S.

The climate issue is very politicized and the whole "green new deal" (I assume EVs fall in it by default) is a highly contested subject from the Rs.

I've learnt that they vehemently equate Climate Change with a hoax that #45 saved them from, the hoax being that Paris Accord is set up in such a way as to enrich certain people, therefore there can be nothing good in green, or in taxing emissions, but only losses of oil jobs and the economy in ruins.

I think we need to better understand this narrative and provide agreeable arguments that can pacify the concerns around lost jobs.
I could care less if we join the Paris agreement or implement a different solution that controls emissions in "going it alone" fashion.

Honestly, I can't see this happening without an adequate discussion in congress, but the push being, of course, is not to discuss it at all.

I've seen Steve(Omar) bring up the subject of lost jobs on twitter and then not provide convincing arguments, which was a disappointment to me.

This needs to be a well argumented subject when you bring it up. Less guesses and more examples and proven research.

For example, on the R side, the answer is to keep oil jobs. On the D side, one answer is to let market take care of it (and thus, leave the people of obsolete professions behind), the other answer is to talk about the necessary support/training, but coming from individuals that some consider socialists or radicals, the individuals cause too much opposition for the discussion to be effective.

We need to be able to talk about this without attaching it to controversial "political champions" in a way that makes sense.

That's how I feel. Yes, it will likely happen anyway with all the opposition, but if we could gain more support from the opposition who are afraid to lose jobs, this transition could go much more smoothly.

Anybody can suggest a good reading on the subject?

Critics miss the rest of the Green New Deal, concern for job creation, help for those displaced, and retraining and redirection. Of course these Christian concerns might increase wage costs.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Go for the original.'

MOON UNIT ZAPPA.

Fellow Space Cadets !

I think I just threw up a little.

Dan

 

[Prunesquallor]

... said the black cat with beady eyes staring right at me.
Halloween spooky!

LOL. No, that’s Tucker. We have THREE black cats, and one is indeed named “Spooky”.

 

[M3Rider]

Either those are test vehicles or we’re in for one helluva earnings call.

The former I believe. A reminder, 6/2/2019 interview:

1. @31:51 Intentionally did not go "all out" with Y.
2. @58:15 No cell capacity for Y right now.
3. @58:54 Cell capacity will come just in time for Y.

On 3/15/19 it was said "Model Y will come first in the fall of 2020"

 

[PeterJA]

...young, new buyers tend to buy used cars. A person's first truly new car is often their fifth car (or whatever) so they've had time to latch onto a preferred brand. Hmmm.

Things will start to get really interesting in ~3-5 years when used Model 3’s are prevalent. I think that’s the point where you’ll really start to see EV’s take over everything, including the lower end of the market.

Good thoughts, but don't forget the momentous change that is coming if Tesla perfects full self-driving. All Model 3s will be capable (some with a computer upgrade) of earning significant income as robotaxis, and therefore will be worth more than used cars in the past.

Tesla plans to take over the lower end of the market with low-priced robotaxi rides, not low-priced cars. I'm looking forward to dirt-cheap convenient transportation without the hassle of owning a car, even though I can afford one.

Master Plan, Part Deux

 

[Zero CO2]

Things will start to get really interesting in ~3-5 years when used Model 3’s are prevalent. I think that’s the point where you’ll really start to see EV’s take over everything, including the lower end of the market.

Yup my younger son wanted a Tesla but it is still out of reach for a first car... in a few years a lot more young car buyers will be able to buy a used Tesla ... sorry Elon Teslas are actually depreciating at this point in time ... depreciation is still hard at work even for EVs

 

[Bet TSLA]

As with before, please don't share this link anywhere that it might introduce a selection bias; it's shared here because there's no reason to expect a selection bias here.

I don't see how you avoid people seeing this. Every time anybody replies it show up here. I check that page regularly for new things of interest, so I assume others must do the same. Mentioning this just in case you didn't know.

 

[MC3OZ]

Good thoughts, but don't forget the momentous change that is coming if Tesla perfects full self-driving. All Model 3s will be capable (some with a computer upgrade) of earning significant income as robotaxis, and therefore will be worth more than used cars in the past.

Tesla plans to take over the lower end of the market with low-priced robotaxi rides, not low-priced cars. I'm looking forward to dirt-cheap convenient transportation without the hassle of owning a car, even though I can afford one.

Master Plan, Part Deux

So one way or another, some people will discover a ride in a 10 year old Tesla, is better than a trip in a brand new ICE.

 

[Curt Renz]

The Fast Money traders on CNBC discussed Tesla on their show today.....what a clueless bunch.
They attributed the surge in Tesla's stock today to the news that China will ban non-EV ride-sharing vehicles. What? This stock has been rising for 6 days now - and the surge today was this thinly reported news item?
I knew this was going to be an ugly session when the host Melissa Lee open the discussion by informing her viewers that "Tesla missed Q3 delivery targets"...really? 97,000 deliveries? .... below whose target?
Then Seymour (who shorts Tesla), Worth and Adami all rained on Tesla's parade with the usual FUD arguments.
I don't even get angry when I see this FUD any longer...I now grin and think to myself, "these guys are going to get burnt".

Tesla is fair game by the media while it does not advertise and its competitors do heavily.

 

[davepsilon]

Good thoughts, but don't forget the momentous change that is coming if Tesla perfects full self-driving. All Model 3s will be capable (some with a computer upgrade) of earning significant income as robotaxis, and therefore will be worth more than used cars in the past.

Tesla plans to take over the lower end of the market with low-priced robotaxi rides, not low-priced cars. I'm looking forward to dirt-cheap convenient transportation without the hassle of owning a car, even though I can afford one.

Master Plan, Part Deux

Replacing a $10/hr driver with a FSD machine is going to make taxi service dirt cheap???

 

[MC3OZ]

Replacing a $10/hr driver with a FSD machine is going to make taxi service dirt cheap???

My guess is as low as $1 per mile...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So one way or another, some people will discover a ride in a 10 year old Tesla, is better than a trip in a brand new ICE.

By the time anyone's riding in a 10 year old Model 3 most new car options will be EV, so it's unlikely they'll even be thinking about the comparison.

 

[MC3OZ]

By the time anyone's riding in a 10 year old Model 3 most new car options will be EV, so it's unlikely they'll even be thinking about the comparison.

Good point..

 

[PeterJA]

Replacing a $10/hr driver with a FSD machine is going to make taxi service dirt cheap???

Yes, when the car and battery last a million miles, the computer is designed in-house, and the FSD software costs nothing to replicate.

My guess is as low as $1 per mile...

Last March, ARK estimated 26 cents per mile.

ARK Contributes Its Financial Autonomous Taxi Model to GitHub

In April, Tesla announced that its cost will be 18 cents per mile, but will charge $1 (at least initially).

Cathie Wood on Twitter

 

[StealthP3D]

They were buying below $200 - well deserved profit taking and a bit of pre-ER deleveraging?

I have some ARKQ and TSLA is their single biggest holding. I'm sure after these sales it will still be their largest holding.

 

[davepsilon]

My guess is as low as $1 per mile...

I know there are grand hopes for the ultimate financial prospects of the Tesla Network. But the FSD portion only replaces the (low skill) driver portion of a taxi system. In the current market served by uber and lyft FSD replaces < $10/hr labor. Not $10/hr + benefits employee labor that might actually cost the company several multiples of that but rather literally < $10 an hour contractor labor. You can argue this is not sustainable and potentially illegal but it is the current state of the US market.

There is a potential additional cost savings of EV operation vs. Ice. Here's one compelling data point of commercial operation: $0.25 /mile (estimated) for maintenance for mercedes vs. $0.05/mile (actual) for a model S. Fuel is cheaper maybe another $0.2/mile savings for now. But road use taxes over the long haul while likely shift to include EVs not just ICE as a gas tax. And here is tesla network's problem with outsize profits based on EV cost advantages: the tesla network won't have a monopoly on using EVs for taxis. Uber, for instance, can too.

The FSD part is just not a valuable piece to a taxi network while uber can pull in what I'll call "fresh meat" drivers

 

[Creekstalker]

I don't know why so many Americans choose to rely their entire livelihood on one type of job so much with no savings and very little education..but it's a huge problem and these people are extremely resistant to change. When there's a layoff, these people are essentially doomed. They barely know how to read so no one is expecting them to learn how pick themselves up and move to a more prosperous city with a terrible resume in hand.

That's about the most condescending thing I've ever read. "These people"...