Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

A second (final) poll OT related to MCUs (the last one was really useful data, thanks to everyone who took part!). Only for people who had replacements.

MCU failure poll #2: what *type* of failure did you have?

As with before, please don't share this link anywhere that it might introduce a selection bias; it's shared here because there's no reason to expect a selection bias here.

 

[abasile]

For 0.05% change to their net asset??

That's like an average Joe making all that effort to gain a single nickel ($.05) in an account with $100.

ARK can do no wrong it seems for some people. When they buy, it's a good thing. When they sell, it's a good thing. Some criticize swing trading TSLA. But, when it's ARK doing it, regardless of reason, it's a smart move.

ARKK has about $151m under management. They just sold 14,894 shares of Tesla. If they made a profit of $60/share, that's just under $900k, or about 0.6% which is not trivial considering that they regularly trade. I think you slipped a decimal point.

Personally, I don't hold any ARK funds. Knowing that their CEO, Cathie Wood, is a prominent Tesla bull, however, I like to watch their TSLA trades.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Does the touchscreen work with gloves on?

If they work with cellphones, then yes.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Great point. I should have said 98%

Actually, I don't know how to quantify this. If we simplify and say car-buying starts at age 22 and ends at 72 then each year 2% of car buyers are new to the market (and 2% die off). If Tesla grabbed 100% of the new buyers, they would take 2% of market share each year. That's ~320k new car sales in the US. Tesla will only sell ~180k cars in the US this year, so there's room for growth without a single defection from another brand. In theory, at least. Reality is a lot more complex since young, new buyers tend to buy used cars. A person's first truly new car is often their fifth car (or whatever) so they've had time to latch onto a preferred brand. Hmmm.

Things will start to get really interesting in ~3-5 years when used Model 3’s are prevalent. I think that’s the point where you’ll really start to see EV’s take over everything, including the lower end of the market.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Just like automation and machine intelligence taking jobs, electrification of the world with renewables is just too damn efficient. A typical car has 40k parts while an EV is less than half that. Imagine all the jobs taken away just from the reduction parts...not even mentioning all the gas stations, autozones, jiffy lubes, etc etc going bankrupt. How will future "gas stations converted to charging stations" compete with people who charges at home? I have yet to step foot into a super charging station at 20k miles driven. How about all the oil truckers and drillers out of a job? Last time I checked, they only need to install solar panels ONCE. It doesn't need to be refueled to gain power, it will give you power for decades without involving another person.

A lot of manual labors will become obsolete while "improvements" to the vehicle shifts to software. Instead of causing people to swap out their cars every 3 years, their 3 year old Model 3 has the newest software so there's no need to change. The car drives 100% like new because it doesn't idle, it doesn't vibrate, it doesn't lose HP over time, it doesn't leak, it doesn't consume oil. So more jobs will be taken away from used car shops.

Pushing for this transition is difficult as it displaces millions of jobs..jobs that will never be replaced with a different one because the efficiency gained from this transition is too good.

Love the first two paragraphs, but am yet to be convinced on the third. Personal trainers, theatre performers, manicurists, surfing instructors, tour guides etc etc

Each time traditional jobs go, we seem to find new ways for the haves to amuse themselves and redistribute the wealth. My fallback position in retirement is to manage a bridge club a couple nights a week (the card game).

 

[kengchang]

More tents secured!

F19-0049 - Install two temporary tents for Pilot Shop parts staging. Tents to be removed by 3/31/2020

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I think you wasted too much time on him writing that long

I don't know, I learned a lot from her post...what little I could understand at least. LOL!

Dan

 

[Pras]

Tesla Owners Online on Twitter

Model Y spotted. Seems they are being shipped out. Showroom models? Whatever, getting close now.

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

Re: the ARK sales, also remember that they have to deal with their own investors who are adding AND redeeming (for whatever reasons) out of their funds, which requires them to rebalance for various reasons. Their models might dictate that for redemptions above x% of NAV, sell y% of z +% stock.

Or Cathie is pissed there aren’t any robotaxis yet.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Some brokers refuse to sell Ark funds because of their trade disclosures, such as Merrill Lynch.

 

[Fact Checking]

ARK can do no wrong it seems for some people. When they buy, it's a good thing. When they sell, it's a good thing.

What happened here is that ARK bought low during the Q1 gloom-and-doom and is selling a part of their stake during recent highs, which is good for them.

ARK is also making valuable contributions to the bull thesis and to Tesla investors by frequently pushing back against the prevailing bear narrative in excellent interviews on various business media platforms.

Some criticize swing trading TSLA. But, when it's ARK doing it, regardless of reason, it's a smart move.

Citation required, I don't remember anyone here criticizing TSLA swing trading investment strategies, and numerous prominent TMC members are doing it. Those who are using buy-and-hold are primarily doing it for its simplicity, not because it's the only valid investment strategy.

You keep making these broad, unfounded accusations against TMC members in a sour, toxic tone that I find a pretty odd mood from a Tesla investor on such a nice day.

 

[woodisgood]

View attachment 466079 Tesla Owners Online on Twitter

Model Y spotted. Seems they are being shipped out. Showroom models? Whatever, getting close now.

Interesting indeed!

 

[Thumper]

If the flash memory problem is inherent and inevitable in each MCU, then it seems to cry for a corporate solution. If a young person's first Tesla is used, they may be getting it just in time to need a new MCU. Admittedly, the cost is no worse than a new ECM or catalytic converter for almost any gas car, but it won't help a new owner's commitment to the Tesla brand. This is especially true if it leaves anyone by the side of the road.

 

[M3Rider]

View attachment 466079 Tesla Owners Online on Twitter

Model Y spotted. Seems they are being shipped out. Showroom models? Whatever, getting close now.

This does not make sense. Showroom cars will Osborne 3s a lot more than just talking about them.

 

[Cherry Wine]

This does not make sense. Showroom cars will Osborne 3s a lot more than just talking about them.

Either those are test vehicles or we’re in for one helluva earnings call.

 

[The Accountant]

The Fast Money traders on CNBC discussed Tesla on their show today.....what a clueless bunch.
They attributed the surge in Tesla's stock today to the news that China will ban non-EV ride-sharing vehicles. What? This stock has been rising for 6 days now - and the surge today was this thinly reported news item?
I knew this was going to be an ugly session when the host Melissa Lee open the discussion by informing her viewers that "Tesla missed Q3 delivery targets"...really? 97,000 deliveries? .... below whose target?
Then Seymour (who shorts Tesla), Worth and Adami all rained on Tesla's parade with the usual FUD arguments.
I don't even get angry when I see this FUD any longer...I now grin and think to myself, "these guys are going to get burnt".

 

[sparcs]

This does not make sense. Showroom cars will Osborne 3s a lot more than just talking about them.

probably prototypes for testing.

there's a second tweet below that one:

@Model3Owners
Just a reminder, Tesla has large facility on Kato rd. where we think the infamous “Area 51” is located where they hand-built the first Model 3 pilot cars.

 

[Navin]

A narrative looking for a pot to piss in

https://luminary.link/kD1lPbxqM0

 

[Singuy]

Love the first two paragraphs, but am yet to be convinced on the third. Personal trainers, theatre performers, manicurists, surfing instructors, tour guides etc etc

Each time traditional jobs go, we seem to find new ways for the haves to amuse themselves and redistribute the wealth. My fallback position in retirement is to manage a bridge club a couple nights a week (the card game).

Or people who found themselves obsolete just kill themselves with drug overdoses and suicides. Rural America suicide rate DOUBLEs that of city rates. And who are the ones getting displaced via globalization and automation?

You forgot that many (perhaps half) of Americans live in rural cities banking on one large scale distribution center or one gigantic manufacturing plant. Americans are also too poor to move because 78% of them lives paycheck to paycheck. While people like us who are TSLA shareholders(meaning we are well off enough to play with dangerous high risk stocks) may want the transition to sustainable energy ASAP, but do realize many people will fall behind due to this and those people will be on life support.

I don't know why so many Americans choose to rely their entire livelihood on one type of job so much with no savings and very little education..but it's a huge problem and these people are extremely resistant to change. When there's a layoff, these people are essentially doomed. They barely know how to read so no one is expecting them to learn how pick themselves up and move to a more prosperous city with a terrible resume in hand.

 

[Fact Checking]

probably prototypes for testing.

there's a second tweet below that one:

Maybe, but then why the "best", most visible Multi-Coat Red color and zero camouflage, not even a tarp or a closed truck? Does Tesla have a Q1 demand death wish?