Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dan Detweiler]

Gave it a dislike only for the taste in music. Not the sentiment...love that.

Dan

 

[EVNow]

All this talk about model Y builds up too much expectation. If debunked at the conference call, the SP will take a dive - much like the pre Q2 earnings (high expectations on earnings, next day drop). Let's not focus on it, be pleasantly surprised if it happens.

Yes - I don't know why longs get excited about such rumors. I definitely prefer no big SP increase pre earnings and jump after earnings.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla will have to adopt a French name if so. That's the law in Quebec (unless it's been changed).

Le Tesla. No biggie.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

What's even sadder is such a strong negative financial experience associated with Tesla will mean that, due to negative associations, they will likely NEVER be able to experience the joys of Tesla ownership even after they recover financially. I find that even sadder than them going broke.

Agreed. I have some friends that fall into this category. They are convinced that Tesla is a ponzi scheme and Elon is a fraud. Because of this they only see negatives in the vehicles and are convinced that they are worthless. Nothing I say can or will ever convince them. I still love them due to our past mutual experiences, but in this, we just have to agree to disagree.

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Imagine how much you'd drink if you were the bass player in a polka band. Good lord.

A little bit less than the drummer.

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Actually seeing a price INCREASE on FSD. Also a price increase for the forthcoming highest performance S.

IF (a big if) we see an earlier than expected Model Y start, we probably wont see much in the way of price cuts at all in 2020 if battery supply is still constrained.

I really hope that we, as the Tesla community, aren't setting ourselves up for another disappointment with all the talk of an early release on the Y. If we talk ourselves into it, you know the analysts will buy into it also and then scream that it is another missed promise if it doesn't happen.

Dan

 

[madodel]

Agreed. I have some friends that fall into this category. They are convinced that Tesla is a ponzi scheme and Elon is a fraud. Because of this they only see negatives in the vehicles and are convinced that they are worthless. Nothing I say can or will ever convince them. I still love them due to our past mutual experiences, but in this, we just have to agree to disagree.

Dan

Amazing how many people have no clue what a Ponzi is. Tesla actually makes and sells products. They have real factories with real equipment in the United States (and now in China as well) and lots of people buy or wish they could afford to buy their products. They release real financial statements. Do people outside the United States have this level of ignorance when it comes to financial facts?

 

[anthonyj]

NASA paid SpaceX for safety review after Musk smoked pot

Musk smokes weed so NASA pays SpaceX $5m lmao... that’s one way to raise capital. More weed smoking soon?

 

[StealthP3D]

At least there will always be a steady supply of folks willing to key Teslas as a remedy for problems in their lives.

With all the media coverage of Sentry Mode, you would have to be a complete idiot and a glutton for punishment to key a Tesla to solve your problems so I don't see this as being very common.

Oh, wait, I almost forgot, we're talking about $TSLAQ here...

 

[Causalien]

With all the media coverage of Sentry Mode, you would have to be a complete idiot and a glutton for punishment to key a Tesla to solve your problems so I don't see this as being very common.

Oh, wait, I almost forgot, we're talking about $TSLAQ here...

I had the brilliant idea of starting a TeslaBounty website where owners can post teslacam videos and one can claim a bounty to identify someone they know that caused damage to Tesla . Then I realized that I am so rusty at coding and someone from SV can probably code it in one day.

 

[BBone]

Don't know if this is anything but
In French
Québec en discussions avec Tesla pour un projet ici

I had the brilliant idea of starting a TeslaBounty website where owners can post teslacam videos and one can claim a bounty to identify someone they know that caused damage to Tesla . Then I realized that I am so rusty at coding and someone from SV can probably code it in one day.

Me too. My COBOL and Fortran skills aren't going to help with mobile app dev. Good idea though.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Me too. My COBOL and Fortran skills aren't going to help with mobile app dev. Good idea though.

Dude, you have GOT to try FORTRAN 77! It will change your life.

 

[lascavarian]

Seems like 30,000 more SpaceX satellites if approved could result in a change in fiscal abilities. One wonders if that info could have changed the valuation of Tesla and been moving the stock price?

 

[StealthP3D]

All this talk about model Y builds up too much expectation. If debunked at the conference call, the SP will take a dive - much like the pre Q2 earnings (high expectations on earnings, next day drop). Let's not focus on it, be pleasantly surprised if it happens.

I don't know about that. It seems pretty silly to avoid talking about production schedules on an investor forum simply because we don't want to be disappointed. We are all adults here, not kids waiting for Santa on Christmas morning.

If you have leaks, rumors or reasons why you think the Model Y won't ramp early, feel free to tamp our expectations back down. But let's not avoid talking about things of such primary importance to an investment in Tesla. The Model Y is widely expected to be Tesla's most important car to date in terms of revenues, profits and impact on the transition to sustainable transport. When it hits the streets is extremely relevant.

I'm thinking Tesla will purposefully keep a slow ramp on the Model Y by starting with only one production line of high margin versions. This is less problematic to do with the Y than the 3 since the Y shares 75% of its parts with the 3. This will allow some fine-tuning of the production process before exporting the production process/line to G3 in China. Around that time they will probably replace one of the Model 3 production lines with Model Y because it's bound to steal some demand. Or, if Model 3 demand continues to grow anyway, export production to the Nevada gigafactory where they will have enough space to fully meet demand.

 

[StealthP3D]

Agreed. I have some friends that fall into this category. They are convinced that Tesla is a ponzi scheme and Elon is a fraud. Because of this they only see negatives in the vehicles and are convinced that they are worthless. Nothing I say can or will ever convince them. I still love them due to our past mutual experiences, but in this, we just have to agree to disagree.

Did you let them drive your Model 3?

 

[Paracelsus]

Seems like 30,000 more SpaceX satellites if approved could result in a change in fiscal abilities. One wonders if that info could have changed the valuation of Tesla and been moving the stock price?

Thanks for your post, @lascavarian - I just dug into this a bit more and should have realized the request for an additional 30,000 satellites on top of the previously approved 12,000 satellites will bring the total to...........you guessed it.........42,000 satellites

There is no end to the fun that Elon is having with this. Good on him. It is well deserved!

https://www.space.com/spacex-30000-more-starlink-satellites.html

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes - I don't know why longs get excited about such rumors. I definitely prefer no big SP increase pre earnings and jump after earnings.

Oh, I would prefer the share price jumps after earnings (vs. before) as well. Who knows, we might get both. They are not mutually exclusive.

But it sounds like you believe chatter and speculation here has a significant impact on share price. I disagree. The dynamics surrounding Teslas share price are so big, it's going to take a lot more than a little TMC speculation on when Model Y ramps to change share price dynamics. Because speculation is just speculation. The market is much bigger than that.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Did you let them drive your Model 3?

Yes
They weren't impressed. They see unneeded simplicity, an ugly interior, fire hazard, dangerous autopilot and guaranteed range anxiety. Same old FUD. They buy it hook,line and sinker.

Dan

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes
They weren't impressed. They see unneeded simplicity, an ugly interior, fire hazard, dangerous autopilot and guaranteed range anxiety. Same old FUD. They buy it hook,line and sinker.

Well, not everyone can recognize a good car when they see one, especially if they are bringing a lot of pre-conceived prejudices to the table. I've met people who didn't like a single Pink Floyd song!

 

[EVNow]

But it sounds like you believe chatter and speculation here has a significant impact on share price. I disagree. The dynamics surrounding Teslas share price are so big, it's going to take a lot more than a little TMC speculation on when Model Y ramps to change share price dynamics. Because speculation is just speculation. The market is much bigger than that.

Longs <> TMC.

There is also another part. Calls. I've to check how many calls have been bought vs puts. Those calls that MMs sell will be balanced by buying stocks.

For eg. I wonder how much of the initial market up or down in the first 15 minutes are so is because of calls/puts that people buy for the day.