Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

I hesitate to even posit given that I have no idea what I'm doing, but my current gut feeling is that if the ER plays out as expected, revenue decline YOY, slight non-GAAP loss, solid FCF, indication of on-track H1 2020 production for Model Y and solid progress for MIC M3 in Q319, good guidance, maybe we can establish a new range in the 240-270 area, barring macro events one way or the other.

I encourage comments to the contrary.

I think those results would likely lead to establishing a new trading range more like $250-$300. $240-$270 is an awfully narrow range for a company like Tesla.

 

[KSilver2000]

We've finally turned the corner. No more exuberant run-ups prior to earnings calls followed by media-juiced crashes the day after. Perhaps investors will simply look the earnings/guidance and start to understand the plan is working?

Was there a run up and then post ER crash for Q1?

 

[Tslynk67]

Just noticed that Elon retweeted the Parker's Car of the Year award three hours back, so he's still alive...

TESLARATI on Twitter

 

[JusRelax]

GF3 making preparations for 3.5k dual-motor model 3's per week run rate by end of Q1:

Kelvin Yang on Twitter

 

[StealthP3D]

Was there a run up and then post ER crash for Q1?

You don't have access to stock charts?

 

[RobStark]

 

[Thekiwi]

The Camry vs model 3 comparisons with pro vs cons lists are hilarious.

Can the Camry in future be upgraded to FSD autonomous vehicle?

GF3 making preparations for 3.5k dual-motor model 3's per week run rate by end of Q1:

View attachment 468562

A SR+ AWD option could be interesting in many markets.

 

[AlexS]

Recent analysts price targets:

 

[Dutchie]

I don't have a good feeling for Wednesday..

 

[Nocturnal]

The Camry vs model 3 comparisons with pro vs cons lists are hilarious.

Can the Camry in future be upgraded to FSD autonomous vehicle?


A SR+ AWD option could be interesting in many markets.

Plus, it's a farking Camry. Has anyone ever said "hey, cool Camry, I want one!"

 

[Curt Renz]

Jason Yang - pictures shot through Friday and posted Sunday:

 

[Fact Checking]

GF3 making preparations for 3.5k dual-motor model 3's per week run rate by end of Q1:

View attachment 468562

Note that this is what the same Twitter user reported about Q1 China deliveries on March 31, just a few days before the really bad Q1 deliveries report:

Twitter

"Leak: Tesla China delivered over 10,000 Model 3 in 15 days."​

In reality all of Q1 was ~5,300 units:

EV Sales: China March 2019​

So while his leak might be right this time, Caveat Emptor.

 

[dgodfrey]

I don't have a good feeling for Wednesday..

I guess it depends on where you are in your investing timeline. Until I retire or am no longer bringing in more than I spend, these are purely opportunities on both sides of the ball.
The swing trading philosophy was pummeled here a few weeks ago but volatility = opportunity.

 

[kbM3]

GF3 making preparations for 3.5k dual-motor model 3's per week run rate by end of Q1:

Kelvin Yang on Twitter

View attachment 468562

Note that this is what the same Twitter user reported about Q1 China deliveries:

Twitter

"Leak: Tesla China delivered over 10,000 Model 3 in 15 days."​

In reality all of Q1 was 5,300 units:

EV Sales: China March 2019​

So Caveat Emptor.

​

In addition, wasn’t the plan for only SR+ at GF3?

 

[Nocturnal]

Is it time for Tesla owners and TSLA investors to start flexing our wallet muscles? This is US focused but probably applies globally. There are quite a few of us now, and our average demographics/incomes etc. are highly desirable. Would it be reasonable to start creating petitions and boycott campaigns targeting media outlets and whatnot that are hostile or inaccurate in their coverage?

Take CNBC. If they were to receive a letter with X number of owners signing on to say that they are refusing to consume their content and those people are their prime audience, wouldn't that start to have an impact? Getting it started might be difficult so selecting a single outlet to send a message to might be the only workable option.

 

[kbM3]

Nice video with Gali (Hyperchange) and Rob (TechCastDaily).

I found the section where they were discussing the difference between free cash flow, and profits and how that relates to depreciation and amortization, educational. Of course, this is no brainer stuff for the more financially savvy posters here, but others (like me) may find it fairly enlightening.

 

[ReflexFunds]

It looks like Tesla storage is now bundled with Solar - it seems it is no longer possible to buy solar separately. Is this correct?

This would suggest to me that the new pricing, rental option and California power issues have maxed out Tesla’s solar installation capacity. Anyone agree?

 

[JusRelax]

In addition, wasn’t the plan for only SR+ at GF3?

Could potentially be an AWD version of the SR+? No idea, I'm confused about that too.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I don't have a good feeling for Wednesday..

Really? Were you planning to sell on Thursday?

I truly don’t care how the market reacts on Wednesday. It’s irrelevant to the time it will take for the stock to go 5x.

The Q3 figures are only relevant in so far as what they tell us about timelines to profitability for GF3 (model 3), model Y, pickup, semi and roadster. If Elon’s forecasts have been getting more accurate, then his answers to questions during the call require less “allowance for optimism”.

The one thing we can be sure of, the market will be way too focused on 2019.

 

[KarenRei]

Nafnlaus on Twitter

"HAHA, as if @elonmusk is going to turn that SWAMP into a FACTORY in just 8 MONTHS! Look, they're putting CRANES out in the dirt as a stunt! What a stupid... ... oh... ..."