That was always a stupid plan. The savings from local production are massive, even more so with tariffs going back to 40%.
I presume Elon only suggested the US would continue to produce premium cars to limit potential kickback from Trump etc.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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That was always a stupid plan. The savings from local production are massive, even more so with tariffs going back to 40%.
I presume Elon only suggested the US would continue to produce premium cars to limit potential kickback from Trump etc.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Plans change: if Fremont is maxed out and the China SR+ order queue is crazy long they'd want to increase China made unit value to extract more margins, and SR+ AWD would be a good way to do it.
Also maybe they have some new SUV model in the works that will start with AWD trims?
I wondered about that but it appears you can still subscribe to solar only. I can't think of a reason they would steer people who wanted solar into subscribing versus buying so am not sure what to make of this.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Well, you can be worried about Wednesday, but not be worried enough to sell on Thursday.
I have mixed feelings about Q3 financials as well - if there's good news at the ER I'd expect them to not come from the numbers, but from other disclosures. But even then a negative price reaction is in the cards (as always) - a lot of shorts are on the sidelines, maybe they want to re-short.
The options market appears to be pricing in an at least ~$10 move in both directions.
Not advice.
As I have said in the past (as has Karen), I'll believe manufactoring has begun when you start seeing containers/trailers at the loading docks. Now there are dozens with more arriving constantly. The blue trailers are Cosco, the state owned transportation "company". They could have come from anywhere including GF1. They must have been staged somewhere nearby to be able to delver so many in such a short time. I'd love to see what things look like inside, but won't hold my breath. I'm shocked that this video did not give the SP a pop.
I guess at that time Tesla was concerned Chinese customers might stop ordering, and only waiting for GF3's products. So they said GF3 will only do SR. In reality that plan doesn't make any sense. They should do P3D first, then AWD.
Anyone who has made 20-25 times their money through long term investing has endured many of these times of not having a "good feeling". JMO.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Well it's what all the German premium car makers are doing: they have factories in China that make low ASP, high volume units for the Chinese market - but they are selling all the higher trims as well, at a premium - and those cars come from Germany.
I can see Tesla making SR+ AWD units - but they'd only cannibalize Fremont production if Fremont is supply limited serving all the other markets: which is not at all clear for Q1'2020.
Don TLR
Active Member
They'll sold me storage but won't install rooftop solar on my flat roof.. I wanted to add to my existing rooftop solar system along with the 2 Powerwalls I'm getting, but they stopped doing flat roofs earlier this year, then started and quickly stopped again. I just received a text stating Tesla is waiting on utility company approval to get started. I'll have to find another source for the addition of more panels.
It will all depend on guidance. If there is high conviction wording on increased GF3 production, cell production increases or demand backlog lengthening then we are off to the races.
Problem is I haven't ever consumed any of their content.
You think so?
James Stephenson on Twitter
I think I'd lower the 3's ASP, but that'd only lower automotive revenue about $0,2B (I make no adjustment to the expected margins despite this). I'm happy with significant growth in energy generation / storage; I've been expecting that (a renewed solar push, lots of random storage projects popping up, seasonal patterns, etc). I don't have a good sense for leasing or services. To me, $6,4B doesn't look ambitious at all. Seriously, revenue basically flat from Q2 is ambitious?
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So Tesla should hopefully be able to bang out a 10,000 car week at some point in December, right? All models & factories combined?
(Damn it feels good to type factories - plural - in relation to Tesla production)
(Damn it feels good to type factories - plural - in relation to Tesla production)
The sign is in the wrong place. Nice try fudster.Nafnlaus on Twitter
"HAHA, as if @elonmusk is going to turn that SWAMP into a FACTORY in just 8 MONTHS! Look, they're putting CRANES out in the dirt as a stunt! What a stupid... ... oh... ..."
You think so?
James Stephenson on Twitter
I think I'd lower the 3's ASP, but that'd only lower automotive revenue about $0,2B (I make no adjustment to the expected margins despite this). I'm happy with significant growth in energy generation / storage; I've been expecting that (a renewed solar push, lots of random storage projects popping up, seasonal patterns, etc). I don't have a good sense for leasing or services. To me, $6,4B doesn't look ambitious at all. Seriously, revenue basically flat from Q2 is ambitious?
is that double counting leased vehicle revenue?
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Nafnlaus on Twitter
"HAHA, as if @elonmusk is going to turn that SWAMP into a FACTORY in just 8 MONTHS! Look, they're putting CRANES out in the dirt as a stunt! What a stupid... ... oh... ..."
Every container blue? Is there an explanation for that, such as all from one supplier or Chinese colour coding regulations?
Yesterday we saw a vid of a Model X on summon steer towards an oncoming car (no collision). The summoner’s face was not shown, no licence plate could be read on the Tesla, it was impossible to see through the windscreen. My first thought - it could be staged with a driver in the car.
The above pic could be photoshopped. The lack of shadow extending from the dark end of the containers is hard to explain. Where’s the light source?
Suspicious by nature.
I'll ask him for clarification. But even if you entirely remove lease revenue, that's just another -$0,2B. The basic fact is that an expected $6,4B is saying that revenue will basically be flat from Q2. There's nothing particularly ambitious about that.
Is this a joke? That's just one of a number of pictures from last night, and there's drone video footage of GF3 from today.
Really impressive CG, eh?
Most of the blue crates are from COSCO (China Ocean Shipping Group). They look like this:
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I'm honestly torn on whether my post is a good idea or idiotic, but I'm pretty used to that TBH.
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