Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[abasile]

A SR+ AWD option could be interesting in many markets.

That would be a good demand lever when/if needed. The LR AWD variant is a bit too expensive for many people. Something closer to $40k would have greater potential to be a "Subaru killer".

Here in California's mountain communities, one of the first questions people ask me about Tesla vehicles is, "Is it AWD?" That's partly because, in "winter conditions", California authorities generally require tire chains on 2WD vehicles but not AWD/4WD vehicles. It's overkill for sure, but then again, the majority of California's ~40 million people are not experienced snow drivers. Beyond California, in snow country in general, people believe that AWD is safer.

 

[abasile]

They'll sold me storage but won't install rooftop solar on my flat roof.. I wanted to add to my existing rooftop solar system along with the 2 Powerwalls I'm getting, but they stopped doing flat roofs earlier this year, then started and quickly stopped again. I just received a text stating Tesla is waiting on utility company approval to get started. I'll have to find another source for the addition of more panels.

They also won't install on steep pitched roofs. We own a small A-frame cabin with a south-facing roof sloped at almost 60 degrees. Tesla won't consider it, even for an extra fee. I think they want to keep things as simple as possible.

 

[KarenRei]

That would be a good demand lever when/if needed. The LR AWD variant is a bit too expensive for many people. Something closer to $40k would have greater potential to be a "Subaru killer".

Here in California's mountain communities, one of the first questions people ask me about Tesla vehicles is, "Is it AWD?" That's partly because, in "winter conditions", California authorities generally require tire chains on 2WD vehicles but not AWD/4WD vehicles. It's overkill for sure, but then again, the majority of California's ~40 million people are not experienced snow drivers. Beyond California, in snow country in general, people believe that AWD is safer.

SR+ AWDs would sell really well in Iceland, too.

 

[Skryll]

unless they buy abandoned car factory in Germany ready for re-tooling

They probably would prefer building one from scratch for their specific needs, now that they are figuring out the machine that builds the machine etc

 

[KarenRei]

They probably would prefer building one from scratch for their specific needs, now that they are figuring out the machine that builds the machine etc

I'm sure they would. That said, I could picture permitting advantages to going with a brownfield site.

Whatever they're working on, I'm sure they're taking permitting times under heavy consideration.

 

[Thekiwi]

I'm sure they would. That said, I could picture permitting advantages to going with a brownfield site.

Whatever they're working on, I'm sure they're taking permitting times under heavy consideration.

exactly this - whatever disadvantages there are in having to convert an existing facility, it probably is vastly outweighed by having a factory up to speed potentially years earlier.

 

[MC3OZ]

I'm sure they would. That said, I could picture permitting advantages to going with a brownfield site.

Whatever they're working on, I'm sure they're taking permitting times under heavy consideration.

Europe is different to China, getting the right location with good transport access may be the key criteria.

GF3 was obviously optimised for the way Tesla wants to build cars, finding an existing group of buildings adaptable to that task is a challenge.... but they can certainly do heavy modifications on existing buildings...

Like China they want to be up and running quickly, in Europe that may require a different approach...

In addition to transport, an existing factory may have power, gas and water utilities connected....

It doesn't need to have been a car factory ,it just needs to tick all the boxes... site, access, proximity, layout, floor plan, utilities,

 

[tinm]

Whatever happened to the EU-ordered FCA payments to Tesla? Might we see some of that buried in the financials this week?

 

[jerry33]

Beyond California, in snow country in general, people believe that AWD is safer.

At least until you have to stop. Most vehicles I see in the ditch on slippery days are AWD.

 

[KarenRei]

Whatever happened to the EU-ordered FCA payments to Tesla? Might we see some of that buried in the financials this week?

We won't know what credits will be realized until the report. In Q1, automotive margins were significantly boosted by credits. In Q2, not so much.

Q3? We'll see soon enough.

 

[JRP3]

At least until you have to stop. Most vehicles I see in the ditch on slippery days are AWD.

While that seems to be the case it's important to consider that before you have to worry about stopping you have to be able to get moving.

 

[AlexS]

Whatever happened to the EU-ordered FCA payments to Tesla? Might we see some of that buried in the financials this week?

FCA EU credits are starting from 2020 as EU credits are available from 2020

 

[EVNow]

You think so?

James Stephenson on Twitter

I think I'd lower the 3's ASP, but that'd only lower automotive revenue about $0,2B (I make no adjustment to the expected margins despite this). I'm happy with significant growth in energy generation / storage; I've been expecting that (a renewed solar push, lots of random storage projects popping up, seasonal patterns, etc). I don't have a good sense for leasing or services. To me, $6,4B doesn't look ambitious at all. Seriously, revenue basically flat from Q2 is ambitious?

Not sure why he thinks ASP of 3 is reversing the trend - starting this quarter - and goes back up all the way to 56k - even as Y comes out. Unless all of that is increased FSD take rate, I don't see how that can happen.

Anyway, we should take his model more from a long term, rough perspective than to see what will happen in a particular quarter.

But in general I can easily see +/-$200M revenue variation based on ASP differences (and reg credit, service etc).

 

[Electroman]

When someone tried telling me that contrails were chem trails I did not remain silent. Doing so would have left them with the wrong impression.

Okay, there's a difference between in-person interaction and social media. But dispelling myths in public is important or those who don't know better think there must be something to it. Where things get annoying is when a "reputable" media outlet gives a platform to kooks (flat earthers, moon landing fakers, etc.) and pretend that they are just being impartial by being balanced and presenting "both sides."

So if talking about the latter, I agree. Don't give the kooks and frauds a platform. But for the former? Such narratives must be countered. That it is an unequal and exhausting effort doesn't change the importance.

Absolutely.

When low lifes short sellers like Mark BS, Tesla Charts and their gang crap on Tesla, I don’t think the impact is much. Because the public pretty much understands that the life of a short seller is all about lying and deceit. That is how most of them make money. They are expected to lie. It is in their professional DNA. Public knows that.

But when LAT, NYT, BB, BI and WSJ join the party with the short sellers -where it is often difficult to tell them apart - that is a whole new game.

Main stream media has a BIG megaphone that can reach far and wide. When they echo these short sellers narrative and play for them, short sellers have won. We are lucky to have Elon who is very popular and respected in social media. Otherwise Tesla would have been crushed long time ago.

That is why it is very important to counter MSM lies and their exaggerated negativity. The likes of Lopez and Mitchell and Grant are million times more effective than all short sellers and Tesla haters combined.

I can’t recall a time when almost all of MSM ganged up against one company. If you take out Elektrek, Clean Technica, Teslarati, Inside EVs - all of them together would not come to a fraction of one of the major newspapers - there is no fair media voice for Tesla. The only megaphone you and I have is Twitter and Facebook and Reddit.That false narrative from MSM need to be countered.

Thanks to Short Short Historian, Steve Jobs ghost and many others.

Otherwise people might still think that Bolt sales are crushing Model 3 and Elon received a billion dollar pay check last year.

 

[abasile]

At least until you have to stop. Most vehicles I see in the ditch on slippery days are AWD.

The key word here is "believe" - people believe AWD to be safer, and beliefs translate to car sales. I wish more people understood that AWD doesn't improve traction when braking!

I will say, though, that AWD (or chains) is sometimes necessary to get up our street in winter. The Model 3 with AWD is great.

 

[Thekiwi]

Not sure why he thinks ASP of 3 is reversing the trend - starting this quarter - and goes back up all the way to 56k - even as Y comes out. Unless all of that is increased FSD take rate, I don't see how that can happen.

Anyway, we should take his model more from a long term, rough perspective than to see what will happen in a particular quarter.

But in general I can easily see +/-$200M revenue variation based on ASP differences (and reg credit, service etc).

Does deferred revenue recognition for FSD features show up in the top line automotive revenue? If so then ASP will look higher even when the actual ASP for cars sold in the quarter is stable or dropped.

 

[KarenRei]

The key word here is "believe" - people believe AWD to be safer, and beliefs translate to car sales. I wish more people understood that AWD doesn't improve traction when braking!

Please, let's not get into this conversation for the 20th time in this thread...

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Europe is different to China, getting the right location with good transport access may be the key criteria.

GF3 was obviously optimised for the way Tesla wants to build cars, finding an existing group of buildings adaptable to that task is a challenge.... but they can certainly do heavy modifications on existing buildings...

Like China they want to be up and running quickly, in Europe that may require a different approach...

In addition to transport, an existing factory may have power, gas and water utilities connected....

It doesn't need to have been a car factory ,it just needs to tick all the boxes... site, access, proximity, layout, floor plan, utilities,

I might add a proficient, quickly trainable workforce to your list.

Dan

 

[M3Rider]

Tesla Model 3 is ready for production in China, says Global VP

Based on the recent update from the Times, it appears that Tesla is now only waiting for a product certification for the Model 3. Product certification reportedly involves the manufacturing of an initial batch of Model 3 units that will be sent over and evaluated by authorities. Once the vehicles pass the evaluation process, Tesla could start selling its Made-in-China Model 3 sedans in the country.

 

[Bullish_Bear]

Just want to ask one thing: 1 year ago, when tesla reported the delivery of 83500 total vehicles, was anyone here in this forum, any single one, predicting that tesla could only deliver 97xxx 1 entire year later?