Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[davecolene0606]

Congratulations to everyone who held on and especially those that bought during the darkest days! This is a small victory for us, but Tesla still has work to do.

After looking at the Q3 update I realized they improved margins on service to from -22.8% to -21.7%, but still lost ~$119 million in that area, I'm trying to figure out why Tesla is losing so much in service, and what is stopping them from reversing that.

I thought in most dealerships service is a major profit driver. What is Tesla doing differently that is costing it so much money?

Is it simply the pricing of the parts? Tesla has the parts priced so low that they are losing money when you add everything else in?

Can they price the parts higher without some backlash if that is the issue? I assume there's some reason Tesla has elected not to increase parts pricing.

Cheers!
-Mike

My anecdotal experience is that Tesla does quite a bit of service that is chalked up to “goodwill”. Definitely a good thing for PR and IMHO a wise decision when launching new and untried tech. They have also asserted that a large chunk of service calls result from AP issues that turn out to be user error. This is burning up tech time which is expensive as well. Management of parts inventory is a point for improvement as well.

There are efforts underway in all 3 of these areas to bring under more control. Tesla has always asserted that service will not be a profit area rather, a self sustaining one and we are seeing steady progress in that direction.

Fire Away!

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

TSLAQ are more like flat earthers - never had a legitimate piece of evidence to,stand on in the first place, and whenever you state obvious facts to disprove one of their stupid theory’s they just shout “fraud” and/or invent a new even more absurd theory.

I find the fraud stuff baffling. I mean do they think every Model 3 on the road is just a Mazda 3 with a T logo stuck on? Or SpaceX is just a CGI studio for each launch?

It's quite confusing if they actually believe it. If they being "sponsored" to put this nonsense out there then I can at least understand it, though their integrity and self respect is out the window.

 

[ZeApelido]

If you sell TSLA and it goes to 1000 you are going to be looking at your house and be thinking... "stupid house"

If TSLA went to $2000 and I used all my retirement earnings, I would be rich be able to buy a tiny old house in the SF peninsula.

Maybe it's time to move

 

[N5329K]

We go now live to #TSLAQ....

View attachment 469603

This is fine.
Robin

 

[KSilver2000]

Anyone think the pickup ends up at the LA Auto Show? It would steal the show.

What would steal the show is presenting it at the NAI show in MI.

 

[woodisgood]

I find the fraud stuff baffling. I mean do they think every Model 3 on the road is just a Mazda 3 with a T logo stuck on? Or SpaceX is just a CGI studio for each launch?

It's quite confusing if they actually believe it. If they being "sponsored" to put this nonsense out there then I can at least understand it, though their integrity and self respect is out the window.

Exactly. It's hard to believe there could be SO MANY actual morons, and also impossible to know the exact proportion of shills and trolls. Reminds me of an army of darkness from something like Lord of the Rings, with varied ghouls and goblins uniting for a common cause.

 

[powertoold]

Exactly. It's hard to believe there could be SO MANY actual morons, and also impossible to know the exact proportion of shills and trolls. Reminds me of an army of darkness from something like Lord of the Rings, with varied ghouls and goblins uniting for a common cause.

They have similar belief system as Russian troll conspiracy influencers.

 

[SteveG3]

I find the fraud stuff baffling. I mean do they think every Model 3 on the road is just a Mazda 3 with a T logo stuck on? Or SpaceX is just a CGI studio for each launch?

It's quite confusing if they actually believe it. If they being "sponsored" to put this nonsense out there then I can at least understand it, though their integrity and self respect is out the window.

Sponsored programming is an extremely high probability. We've been discussing the "bigger game" fossil fuel economy theory of the massive short position and very likely pay-for-play media bias here for years.

"Fraud" accusations fit with the main thrust and theme of all the apparent programming:

Bombard people with false messaging that creates a visceral distrust and dislike of Tesla, Elon, and their products. ie, don't buy one of those fire-trap/self-crashing/overpriced/fad cars from that carnival barker/petulant child/unhinged egomaniac Musk and his teetering on bankruptcy/living off undeserved taxpayer dollars scam company.

 

[woodisgood]

They have similar belief system as Russian troll conspiracy influencers.

Russia has many reasons to stoke the divisions in American society surrounding Tesla and EVs. If I had to guess at their top 10 list of polarizing issues to troll on, I bet it would be on there.

 

[JusRelax]

Exactly. It's hard to believe there could be SO MANY actual morons, and also impossible to know the exact proportion of shills and trolls.

I actually don't think most of them are morons. I think a decent proportion of them are just people that are angry. Angry that their shorts of SolarCity ended up worth nothing. Angry that, as Tesla Investors, their hard-earned money was wasted on buying a worthless SCTY. Angry that the entire oil empire is slowly being unraveled piece by piece by this small Silicon Valley startup and they can't do anything about it.

Anger blinds to the truth.

 

[UncaNed]

So this $300 SP is an arbitrary line due to people sticking with $300 as a good place to buy/sell and for options right? It's amusing how even people that believe they are rational investors pick nice round numbers.

And what should a new guy think of this "resistance" some of us like to speak about at certain round numbers?

Are there invisible men watching over this whole stock thing?

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

BUY to close 3 TSLA 191025 250 Puts @ $.05
Profit +$2,235

and

SELL to open 3 TSLA 191025 285 PUTs @$2.50

Rolling puts to next.week

CLOSING 3 TSLA 191025 285 PUTs @$.50 $600 profit

SELL 3 TSLA 191101 285 PUTs @$3.50

 

[wipster]

Analysts need to (re)learn the fact that just as you do not judge Apple (Watch) by the standards that applied to Bulova and Timex, you cannot judge Tesla by the standards that applied to GM, Ford, FCA, etc.

Exactly. How many conventional timepieces can call 911 and give them your exact location when you've fallen off a cliff and are unconscious with broken bones? The Apple Watch can and has done exactly that.

 

[woodisgood]

I actually don't think most of them are morons. I think a decent proportion of them are just people that are angry. Angry that their shorts of SolarCity ended up worth nothing. Angry that, as Tesla Investors, their hard-earned money was wasted on buying a worthless SCTY. Angry that the entire oil empire is slowly being unraveled piece by piece by this small Silicon Valley startup and they can't do anything about it.

Anger blinds to the truth.


View attachment 469617

It's a fair point, but the fanaticism with which they attach themselves to their "movement" is what is troubling and to me signals something more than angry/disappointed people with money at stake.
Most people who are financially knowledgeable enough to play in the market beyond basic long-term holding or swing trading also tend to be more detached than these folks. This is far more than people simply betting against a company...they are devoting themselves to its destruction and attaching their self-identity to it. You can analogize with many of us bulls/fans - it's not just about making money, but also about what the company stands for, its mission, and place in history. If you're on the opposite side of this, with equal emotional investment, then what exactly is your motivation?

 

[jerry33]

Anyone think the pickup ends up at the LA Auto Show? It would steal the show.

EDIT: I'm putting down my prediction for this happening. Tesla is not currently listed in the list of exhibitors, but is listed as offering test drives of S, 3, X during the show. At the very least I'd think they would bring Y?

Most auto shows of this nature are run by an auto dealers' association. They have specifically excluded Tesla in many states (don't know first hand about California).

 

[jerry33]

Without seat and door pockets, where are you storing all those in the rear?

This sentence is in dire need of a comma (unless you meant a different kind of rear

 

[woodisgood]

Most auto shows of this nature are run by an auto dealers' association. They have specifically excluded Tesla in many states (don't know first hand about California).

Tesla was there as an exhibitor the last two years, at least.

 

[Thekiwi]

Ok so pretty much every short and media outlet is leading with the year on year decline in revenue as the “negative” from Q3 results, without including any of the context as to why that decline is happening.

I have distilled the obvious transitory reasons behind the negative y-o-y decline into a Single tweet size (280 characters) retort that can be shared by all:

==========

Focus on Tesla y-o-y revenue decline is disingenuous due to Q32018 one off advantages:‬

‪- Q318 Model mix very high (All LR) to meet launch demand, Q319 is normal mix (includes SR)‬
‪- No 3 lease sales in Q318, whereas Q319 had 6.5k leases (lease revenue not booked upfront)‬

‪$TSLA‬

==========

Feel free to suggest edits to the above

 

[Dan Detweiler]

So it seems to me that the narrative, among those analysts that are talking today, is going back to the "great competition" that is soon to pull market share away from Tesla. I really need someone to point out all this competition for me because I am totally blind to it. All I see are manufacturers figuring out that they just don't have the resources to produce a vehicle with remotely the same specs, charging options, and price as anything Tesla is offering. Bollinger just figured this out and others have as well.

So what am I missing? I just don't see anybody, and I mean ANYBODY that can do this within the next several years. If nothing else, where are they going to get the batteries? Tesla? I just don't get it. Someone please enlighten me because all the talking heads seem to have it figured out and I just can't see it happening.

Dan

 

[jerry33]

I actually don't think most of them are morons. I think a decent proportion of them are just people that are angry. Angry that their shorts of SolarCity ended up worth nothing. Angry that, as Tesla Investors, their hard-earned money was wasted on buying a worthless SCTY.

Well, if they hadn't, then the shorts would have a real talking point: "Another of Elon's companies failed. Tesla is next". Anyway, it wasn't really SCTY's fault that they were subject to an all out financial institution style attack.