Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kbM3]

Ok so pretty much every short and media outlet is leading with the year on year decline in revenue as the “negative” from Q3 results, without including any of the context as to why that decline is happening.

I have distilled the obvious transitory reasons behind the negative y-o-y decline into a Single tweet size (280 characters) retort that can be shared by all:

==========

Focus on Tesla y-o-y revenue decline is disingenuous due to Q32018 one off advantages:‬

‪- Q318 Model mix very high (All LR) to meet launch demand, Q319 is normal mix (includes SR)‬
‪- No 3 lease sales in Q318, whereas Q319 had 6.5k leases (lease revenue not booked upfront)‬

‪$TSLA‬

==========

Feel free to suggest edits to the above

I feel the real reason YoY is disingenuous is because growth is by nature lumpy

2018: Massive growth.
2019: Tiny(by Tesla standards) revenue growth because of a consolidation/ cost cutting/ raising new factory year.
2020: Massive growth.

 

[Ulmo]

So it seems to me that the narrative, among those analysts that are talking today, is going back to the "great competition" that is soon to pull market share away from Tesla.

The competition (Mercedes, Audi+VW, Hyundai+Kia, ... are there others?) have finally stepped up. They'll take a long time to catch up with Tesla (at least 6 years). This is Tesla's to lose. (Just watch Bjørn's channel.)

Executive summary: The Model 3 is very good engineering, and the Model Y is even better. It will be a long time before any other competitors catch up.

(Toyota-Lexus, Honda, GM, Ford, Jaguar, Datsun-Renault, & Fiat-Chrysler are not serious. Polestar-Volvo is barely starting out. I expect a few of them to try to get serious.)

 

[EVMeister]

So it seems to me that the narrative, among those analysts that are talking today, is going back to the "great competition" that is soon to pull market share away from Tesla.

So what am I missing?

I don't think it's you who is missing anything.

The competition (Mercedes, Audi+VW, ... are there others?) have finally stepped up. They'll take a long time to catch up with Tesla (at least 6 years).

Catch up with Tesla of today, or Tesla of 2025+? That is the question. It seems Tesla are far more agile and innovating a lot faster. But I guess there's a very large gap to fill as the ICE to EV transition continues.

 

[MikeC]

So this $300 SP is an arbitrary line due to people sticking with $300 as a good place to buy/sell and for options right? It's amusing how even people that believe they are rational investors pick nice round numbers.

And what should a new guy think of this "resistance" some of us like to speak about at certain round numbers?

Are there invisible men watching over this whole stock thing?

Yeah, they’re the market makers.

People buy options at the round numbers because that’s where the liquidity is - more people buying and selling means you get a narrower bid-ask spread. More buyers makes more liquidity at that round strike price and so it’s a positive feedback cycle.

Obviously, the market makers would greatly prefer not to pay out a bunch of calls where people made a 20x return against them. I’m not sure whether the market makers actively and intentionally “cap” the SP or whether it just happens when they rebalance shares according to their options liabilities, but I do think this is one of the dynamics at play.

 

[woodisgood]

So it seems to me that the narrative, among those analysts that are talking today, is going back to the "great competition" that is soon to pull market share away from Tesla. I really need someone to point out all this competition for me because I am totally blind to it. All I see are manufacturers figuring out that they just don't have the resources to produce a vehicle with remotely the same specs, charging options, and price as anything Tesla is offering. Bollinger just figured this out and others have as well.

So what am I missing? I just don't see anybody, and I mean ANYBODY that can do this within the next several years. If nothing else, where are they going to get the batteries? Tesla? I just don't get it. Someone please enlighten me because all the talking heads seem to have it figured out and I just can't see it happening.

Dan

Not missing anything Mr. D. Hopefully you endowed your pupils with that same common sense over the years.

 

[Darkfox021]

Ok so pretty much every short and media outlet is leading with the year on year decline in revenue as the “negative” from Q3 results, without including any of the context as to why that decline is happening.

I have distilled the obvious transitory reasons behind the negative y-o-y decline into a Single tweet size (280 characters) retort that can be shared by all:

==========

Focus on Tesla y-o-y revenue decline is disingenuous due to Q32018 one off advantages:‬

‪- Q318 Model mix very high (All LR) to meet launch demand, Q319 is normal mix (includes SR)‬
‪- No 3 lease sales in Q318, whereas Q319 had 6.5k leases (lease revenue not booked upfront)‬

‪$TSLA‬

==========

Feel free to suggest edits to the above

Cars were held back in Q2 and delivered Q3 2018 (to delay the tax credit phase out by one quarter), "artificially" boosting Q3 revenue.

 

[JusRelax]

And what should a new guy think of this "resistance" some of us like to speak about at certain round numbers?

Are there invisible men watching over this whole stock thing?

Pretty much... if your internal buy order is at $300, then set a buy limit order at something a little above $300 (i.e. - $300.13) in order to get in right after buying pressure has surpassed the $300 resistance level.

Conversely, if your internal sell order is at $300, then set a sell limit order a little below $300 (i.e. - $299.87) in order to get out right after selling pressure has surpassed the $300 resistance level.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

The competition (Mercedes, Audi+VW, Hyundai+Kia, ... are there others?) have finally stepped up. They'll take a long time to catch up with Tesla (at least 6 years). This is Tesla's to lose. (Just watch Bjorn's channel.)

I see the manufacturers you mention in roughly the same place Tesla was before the Model S and Supercharger releases. They have years and years of catching up to do. AND, we don't know how much these manufacturers are making (or more likely losing) on these cars. If they can't make them for some semblance of a profit then they certainly will not be manufacturing them in any significant numbers. I see them as another form of compliance car. This time, instead of covering them regarding emissions and fleet MPG averages, they are trying to improve a public image and show how "forward thinking" they are. The sad thing is that for many, it will accomplish that goal.

Still many years behind however.

Dan

 

[dha]

If nothing else, where are they going to get the batteries? Tesla? I just don't get it. Someone please enlighten me because all the talking heads seem to have it figured out and I just can't see it happening.

Dan

This times a million. "It's the batteries, stupid!"

Audi had to cut production targets on the e-tron because LG started squeezing them: Audi’s first electric car reportedly delayed again because of a battery shortage


Every other automaker is going to be competing for scraps while Tesla owns the largest battery production facility ON THE PLANET. This is far and away the biggest moat and nobody is talking about it.

 

[woodisgood]

Someone said this yesterday and I absolutely agree - best competition for Tesla is startups like Rivian, who adopt the same ground-up approach to building vehicles and integrating vertically as much as possible. There's no way legacy automakers can suddenly adopt Silicon Valley nimbleness and compete on the software, autonomy, and vehicle cost fronts.

Ford has the right idea. Any legacy aiming to survive needs to hop on the back of a promising EV start-up, lending money, manufacturing know-how, and a slow trickle of engineering, manufacturing, and business talent (essentially a slow self-sacrifice/metamorphosis).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Remarkably stable price action today. Maybe we get a last min push above 300. The stability to me at least is pretty positive for tomorrow and next week.

 

[sparcs]

some momentum in the headlines:

Elon Musk Makes Good on ‘Short Burn of the Century’, 18 Months Later

Tesla overtakes GM as most valuable U.S. automaker, short sellers burned

 

[Southpasfan]

So it seems to me that the narrative, among those analysts that are talking today, is going back to the "great competition" that is soon to pull market share away from Tesla. I really need someone to point out all this competition for me because I am totally blind to it. All I see are manufacturers figuring out that they just don't have the resources to produce a vehicle with remotely the same specs, charging options, and price as anything Tesla is offering. Bollinger just figured this out and others have as well.

So what am I missing? I just don't see anybody, and I mean ANYBODY that can do this within the next several years. If nothing else, where are they going to get the batteries? Tesla? I just don't get it. Someone please enlighten me because all the talking heads seem to have it figured out and I just can't see it happening.

Dan

I don't get it either. Other than Tesla, there is the Nissan Leaf, then a couple of Chinese companies which only sell there. Other than VW, which appears to have platform designed for scale, no other manufacturer is even close to Tesla's volume, let alone Tesla's specs.

Its almost like the analysts haven't actually gone out to buy cars themselves.

Whether the price should be $300 per share, $200, or $600 is another question entirely.

Take Jaguar. They have sold their EV in numbers of like a couple of hundred a month. They might as well just make one of them and move it around from dealership to dealership. I mean, a couple hundred is better than a couple of hundred ICE cars, but come on.

The only competition Tesla has is with itself, in the sense that actual owner satisfaction (which is fine, notwithstanding how Tesla could improve) and potential buyers who are a bit hesitant to go all electric. But if selling 350,000 a year doesn't prove that Tesla can win over buyers I don't know what they need to show.

 

[Causalien]

TSLAQ are more like flat earthers - never had a legitimate piece of evidence to stand on in the first place, and whenever you state obvious facts to disprove one of their stupid theories they just shout “fraud” and/or invent a new even more absurd theory.

One of the earliest TSLAQ I talked to, before the term was invented, was a Honda mechanic.

We were talking about cars and discussing technicals when Model S first started manufacturing. How amazing it'd be to be able to work on something like that from scratch.

Then out of nowhere he said the integrity of Tesla higher ups were lacking. The characters and morals cannot be trusted. And watch out that they are scammers.

I was taken aback by that, as it was u called for with no basis. But I still did my due diligence and investigated the personalities of Tesla execs.

The only reason why I think he'd say that at such an early time in tesla's history are probably brainwashing from higher ups who needs to justify Tesla as a non threat. Eventually it snowballed from there to all employees of all automakers and their supplychain.

The thing is, at that time, it was too early to be able to determine fraud or not. As a startup, tesla had to pull some of the stuff they had to pull. Like having a ModelS on display that'll fall apart if you touch it too hard. Fake it till you make it. Is the SV motto. But I can see from a manufacturer with a long tradition of regulation to follow why it seems like fraud.

You can't expect the average joe in a safe unionized job to understand the things you have to pull to get a business started.

 

[AlexS]

first EU ship for the quarter arrives to ZEE tomorrow evening

 

[Ulmo]

I actually don't think most of them are morons. I think a decent proportion of them are just people that are angry. Angry that their shorts of SolarCity ended up worth nothing. Angry that, as Tesla Investors, their hard-earned money was wasted on buying a worthless SCTY. Angry that the entire oil empire is slowly being unraveled piece by piece by this small Silicon Valley startup and they can't do anything about it.

Anger blinds to the truth.
View attachment 469617

They're funded.

I.e., their "anger" is fueled*. In your picture analogy (which I originally mistook for Gollum), their anger* has a ring (Xi, Shell, Chevron, Texaco, GM, Nissan, etc.) and a Sauron (Putin, Iran, Shell shareholders, GM shareholders, Honda shareholders, Texaco shareholders, Chevron shareholders, etc.) behind it.

* Funny part, they may only be emotionally funded, and not financially funded, much as Smeagol.

 

[Vines]

Wow, price held on all day, and even looks like accumulators are getting in. This would be a great place for support, bring it on!

 

[elasalle]

A close @ 300+ please ...

 

[copyhacker]

Really trying hard to break through 300 to close out the day.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Man, tomorrow is gonna be an absolute bloodbath. Best of luck shorts!