Again, you have no idea what he meant in his tweet.
But I can guarantee you that Elon is not holding the event on 8/8 to talk about the future of supervised FSD. It's a robotaxi unveil.
Say it with me, "Robotaxi. Robotaxi. Robotaxi."
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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But I can guarantee you that Elon is not holding the event on 8/8 to talk about the future of supervised FSD. It's a robotaxi unveil.
Say it with me, "Robotaxi. Robotaxi. Robotaxi."
Your quoted text has nothing to do with what I am talking about - which is the wording Elon uses is loose.
"We are starting to get to the point where, once known bugs are fixed, it will take over a year of driving to get even one intervention."
"We are starting to get to" - this is entirely vague. How close to the point is "starting to get to"? It's not at the point. He's not saying V12.6 is at 1 disengagement per year, it is somewhere less performant than that. We are left to speculate on how much less.
"once known bugs are fixed" - this is not C code. You can't just go in edit some lines of code and remove this. He is making it seem like these are "easy" to fix, which is speculative. They haven't actually fixed them yet. And "fixing" them means retraining with an updated data set that hopefully removes these errors.
So these errors are still real driving errors, but I imagine ones they are more confident can be fixed by updated the curated data fed in for training.
So Musk sees some report from Ashok that miles per intervention on V12.6 is at say 1,000 MPI. Ashok shows him that 80% of the interventions are ones that they hope they can fixed with better training data. Musk calculates that means they are at 5,000 MPI without these "easy" issues, then estimates they are "close to" the 10,000 MPI mark barrier that is close to the one a year rate for most drivers.
Note, mean and median are different from miles driven per year because of skewed distribution. Musk knows this and I doubt uses the mean when he estimates. Median is closer to 10,000 miles per year.
My point isn't these exact numbers are correct, but we have to put this sort of thought into it because the statements given are purposefully vague.
First step is to admit they are vague.
Meh, I am surprised that YOU complain.
Elon has said don't own TSLA if you can't tolerate volatility.
He said 3.5 years ago that he determined that all of economics would be terrible for ~4 years.
WS is corrupt. They can do anything they want especially with Tesla.
The mainstream corrupt media is beyond garbage. Does not help Tesla at all.... and so forth.
FSD is the sugar per latest every piece of reliable news. Nobody else seems to be close with FSD. Hardware wise too, every other FSD attempt car looks like Frankenstein with their LIDARs. Tesla has SpaceX, Boring Co, Neuralink, Optimus, Starlink and Twitter engineers under one umbrella for Elon's disposal. They can do anything now.
I hope for the best. YMMV.
GhostSkater
Member
Easily over a million a week
Cybertruck production seems to be at or close to 200/day
1344 cells per pack means close to two million cells a week, and if we take the “4680 production is well ahead of Cybertruck production and we have weeks of inventory “, that number can be much higher
Oh I try to be positive, and I still feel long term TSLA will rise like a phoenix.
That said, I also think it will be VERY long term until this happens, because I feel for the next few years (yeah, years) TSLA will trade mostly sideways and stay well below its ATH of $415. I think Tesla's auto production growth will be mostly stagnant until 2027 (single digit growth), I think Megapack margins will fall as production ramps up (thereby kneecapping profits), I feel FSD will be solved before EoY 2025, BUT I also feel substantial Robotaxi revenues won't be coming until several years AFTER that, and I think Optimus progress is impressive but revenues from Optimus probably won't even begin for many years yet.
I think the future is bright for Tesla and we're looking at a multi-trillion market cap someday, but for the next few years I think TSLA (the stock) will remain not much better than it's doing today. I think we're stuck in the doldrums until its stupidly blindly obvious to Wall Street that Tesla is going to be a revenue monster. I don't think we'll see a new ATH until Robotaxis are on the roads earning fares and Optimus bots are being sold to customers.
That might seem overly pessimistic, but I feel the lack of faith in Tesla from major investors and Elon's unpredictability coupled with the unlimited FUD attacks will keep TSLA down until financial math makes not owning TSLA an impossibility, and not until THEN will we achieve a new ATH.
IMHO, of course.
Oh, that's self torture... to compare TSLA to the market. Jim is that you?Love the optimism on a day where NAZ is up 300 pts and $TSLA is up 0.00000000001
I don't look at the broader market much at all. It's disconnected and contrarian, (until Fed Chair speaks of course).
I know this has been mentioned earlier - that Tesla has hired a firm to call share owners. I used that service today to vote our remaining shares. Most of our shares are held by Fidelity, who sent email notices with links to vote - easy peasy. Wells Fargo has the remaining shares and sent the notice via snail mail. Either it never arrived, or it was thought to be junk mail 
and apparently, WFA can’t reissue. Phone call today, took 2 min tops. Name and other info verification, recording started, expressed how to vote, all done. Voted in alignment w Board recommendations. Great service, smart move by Tesla.
and apparently, WFA can’t reissue. Phone call today, took 2 min tops. Name and other info verification, recording started, expressed how to vote, all done. Voted in alignment w Board recommendations. Great service, smart move by Tesla.
Why 75?
Even the most bullish of us all dont price any pie in the AI sky in the SP. Elon has pushed and hyped FSD all through this drama. Its his tears and blood. Do you think he will turn the light off on it before making it a massive cash cow? He still own 13% of Tesla. Yeah he will be pissed if the vote fails, but will he be pissed enough to scrap his 8 year old brainchild that, according to his own words, will make TSLA the most valuable company on Earth, with the added bonus of seeing his own net worth taking a nosedive? Not to mention the ridicule, hatred and even lawsuits he will receive if he sabotages the program out of spite.
Optimus requires Tesla level of manufacturing infrastructure to produce. Both RT and Optimus are his to perfect at Tesla and Tesla alone.
So really, what kind of AI venture that he can take away from Tesla that has already been priced in the SP? None. A lot of people will get emotional if the vote fails but the fact of the matter is, with or without xAI, Tesla will have its hand full with FSD, RT and Optimus for the next 5-10 years and if those succeed we talking 5-10x the SP. So yeah, too bad Skynet may not get built at Tesla but you might as well be talking dropping your kids off in a UFO.
Short term, Elon is hyper focused on RT and this vote does not change any of that. It should not have any material impact on the product pipeline for the next 3-5 years.
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I think non Tesla owners pay a higher rate to charge. not really given away for nothing.
Concerning because...? Tesla made 30 million 4680 cells in the last 7 months, enough for 22k CT. At 1k a week for 28 weeks, that does sound like CT is eating up all the cells. So are we concerned nobody wanna buy the truck or are we concerned 4680 are not being ramped quickly enough?
Troy says CT isn't ramping. Concerning.
Most of May sales in the EU have been reported. It doesn't look good, especially in Germany. Probably explains the reported down time of Berlin this month.
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Im no fan of Troy, but Tesla reported 30m of 4680 cells produced in the last 7 months which matches the current CT run rate.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
These are end customer sales. Any time you see headlines like "Ford reports 2.6 million sales" or "US auto market hits 3.9m in quarter" they refer to end customer sales. There are a couple of exceptions, e.g. dealers buying "demo" cars, but they're rounding errors.
OEMs report revenue and COGS on their financial statements based on sales to dealers. That's where channel stuffing can come into play, not the unit sales numbers and forecasts I gave.
Chartered321
Member
Because USD 75 is trailing EPS of 0.75 quarterly that gives a P/E of 25x. Those are the fundamentals of a company in an extremely competitive landscape like automotive. BYD who lately did extremely well has a P/E of 30x.
With an active and dedicated Elon, I can see Tesla emerging from other car companies and become the leader of innovation, software and relationships with the other influeantial personalities of the tech world. With Elon downgraded as a passive investor, I think WS will put tesla at the same level as BYD (25x forward P/E). So, in the short term, with quarterly EPS under 1$, stock price of 75 is possible. In the long run, with or without Elon, quarterly earnings of 4/5 USD and a growth rate back to 25/30% will justify 200$ per share. Otherwise NVDA at 40x PE in 2025 in a monopoly position is still preferrable.
Wall Street has the power of manipulating prices until those EPS are visible, stock price won't react much at the RT event, especially if it's a narrative about future earnings. Unveiling something that can monetize in 5 yrs is not rewarding. Analysts (and Institutionals) want to see monetization within 1yr, otherwise it's again dead money and they will keep on manipulating the stock price as they please.
I personally will keep my self fully invested in TSLA because I'm not a WS guy and i see the biggest potential in this company, and because I appreciate Elon.
cliff harris
Member
The intervention rate for cruise/waymo type services is currently hugely higher. Even if there was some weird reason FSD never got any better, ever past the 1 intervention a year point, you could still run a waymo/cruise style service with remote operators at a very, very low cost. Certainly massively more profitable than the current systems.
cliff harris
Member
Not only this, but because most vehicles at superchargers are Tesla's. and all superchargers have big fat TESLA logos on them, its essentially insisting that if any other EV in the USA wants to do a roadtrip, it needs to make multiple stops at what are effectively Tesla showrooms.
Its hilariously good marketing, because its real world, honest, practical display of how fast the cars charge, what they look like, and how happy the owners seem. Also they just plug in and walk away (or watch netflix). They get a BETTER experience than the poor souls charging their inferior EVs
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The reason Waymo is not yet scaling is the intervention rate is still too high, the geo fence and service limit because of these issues. I think Tesla could do a Uber+ (basically where Waymo is going) but with Waymo already there too I don't see massive profits. There isn't a moat. Also, the Tesla vehicle fleet is not, at this time, a great candidate for RTs. The Zeeker platform is.
(I mirror from X from my iPhone/MacBook onto Apple TV. My Samsung TV also has built in Apple screen mirroring)
Elon has a bachelor in Economics. I would like to think he has thought about the maths and circumstances behind both these statements.
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