IMO, the only way this type of volume can occur would be through agreements with major homebuilders. I would look to see something like this in the near term.20,000 per week x 50 weeks x $30,000 ASP = .... $30+ billion revenue per year
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
It took a day for the market to adjust and the shorts to start panicking. I suspect some got margin called the day after the ER but didn't do anything about it till today.
Shortsville Times:
"Tesla likely will Subsidize Solar from their Car profits - Risky."
"Tesla likely will Subsidize Solar from their Car profits - Risky."
Damn how much do you drive? Do you need to charge every night?
This is not accurate. My house, for example, has 1500sqft of roof. Enough for 10kW of solar roof generation (according to Tesla). The South facing roof is about 750sqft, accounting for walking space let's say 650sqft of solar panel space, enough for > 11.5kW of panels.
Lucky for the shorts that the weekend has arrived. Gives them two extra days to sell the maximum amount of blood plasma before Monday margin calls are due.
Thursday was likely a fairly even distribution of profit taking and short covering.
It showed virtually no resistance at any point today. Little dips here and there (including at the end, where it bounced off of $330 a couple times). But it doesn't seem done running yet. Huge volume still. And a nearly 10% runup probably triggered more margin calls.
I'm not. Until they've actually INSTALLED 1,000 roofs a week for a quarter or two, it's still all just talk.
They seemed very confident on the call, at the very least it sounds like there isn’t a supply issue.
Sounds plausible. It just kept climbing today, which bodes well for next week.
I’ll volunteer my house and I’ll supply pizza and beer for everyone. Just need slate tile.
2virgule5
Member
If Tesla's energy business grew to the point where it is comparable in size to their automative business, analysts would still valuate Tesla as if they were an auto company like Ford or GM. ie they have no clue how to deal with a company that doesn't fit into one of the two or three boxes they are familiar with.
What does Musk need to do to get some credibility around here? Build reusable rockets? LOL, don't be ridiculous!
Someone else with more knowledge on the mechanics of the options markets could probably chime in here,
The amount of calls expiring deep in the money may have played a part as well today A lot of those calls were likely sold naked by market makers and shorts, and any call holders deciding to exercise the contracts means a lot of shares needed to be purchased by the naked call sellers to deliver to the call holders. To counter this there were on a relative basis almost no put options expiring in the money that would have led to shares needing to be sold for anyone holding in the money put contracts.
The above situation does not happen very often probably. In a normal week there are usually some significant level of offsetting of in-the-money calls and puts to counteract the effects of the exercising of each other.
That's not how it works because the roof and panels need to match and a single pipe vent can kill 50 sqft of roof space or more depending on where it's placed. You have to realize the panels are huge and doesn't exactly do what you want.
I think the obvious big takeaways from today's solar event are a dramatic decrease in the cost of these roofs, a big decrease in install complexity and time required, and ramping up to considerable revenue and earning contribution within months to a year.
A more subtle, but still potentially very big takeaway, how difficult these improvements have been to achieve.
That is, this does not look like a product that can be easily cloned by other manufacturers. Tesla will keep innovating on this product, and at a rapid pace. Elon does not like the term moat, but, it seems likely Tesla has quite a moat with the solar roof. It seems basically that Tesla has now used the same tool for the solar roof that led Sandy Munro to be blown away by the engineering of the Model 3's motor and electronics... extremely capable engineering, given very ambitious goals and an environment that unleashes considerably more of their talent than most organizations.
A more subtle, but still potentially very big takeaway, how difficult these improvements have been to achieve.
That is, this does not look like a product that can be easily cloned by other manufacturers. Tesla will keep innovating on this product, and at a rapid pace. Elon does not like the term moat, but, it seems likely Tesla has quite a moat with the solar roof. It seems basically that Tesla has now used the same tool for the solar roof that led Sandy Munro to be blown away by the engineering of the Model 3's motor and electronics... extremely capable engineering, given very ambitious goals and an environment that unleashes considerably more of their talent than most organizations.
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