Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Navin]

Let’s see who the shorts roll out of their bullpen before market opens.

will it be Lora - maybe but likely too weak.

will it be Tim Higgins and Charley - double team wrestlemania cage match style - possibly.

will it be chump Adam Jonas and a downgrade - could be but he’s kinda lost his magic star power.

stay tuned gentemens

 

[MP3Mike]

2. You need different inverters for off-grid use than grid-tied use. Inverter models that are designed for grid-tie application are synced to the grid to generate the same sinus wave of AC power and they simply SHUT DOWN, when the grid is down -- t least that is the case for my grid-tied roof-top solar system I have been using for 8 year snow.

Because of these points, I believe a 2 powerwall system will not save you in case of a several day outage. You maybe able to ride-out a short outage of a few hours, but not anything prolonged.

With Tesla system you have two sets of inverters. You have the grid-tied solar inverters and you have the inverters in the Powerwalls. When the grid goes down the Powerwall inverters act as the grid for the solar inverters keeping things up. with 2 Powerwalls you have 30kWh of energy, so it all depends on how much energy you use and how much energy the solar can produce. It should get you way more than a "few hours". At least a day, maybe two with no solar input for an average user. (Especially if they cut some usage during the power-cut.)

 

[Fact Checking]

1. Your system would not be able to power the house in case of a several day generation outage due to bad weather (stormy, cloudy for several days in a row). You would need much bigger battery packs for true off-grid worst case scenario (upto a week or two usage amount would need to be stored).

Doesn't have to though: the Powerwall has to be able to power the fridges, the alarm system, the desktop computer, the smartphone chargers and the Starlink receiver. 30 kWh will last you for days even if you do some cooking and have hot showers, if you don't insist on air conditioning.

Everything else is "discretionary luxury" in an emergency power grid shutdown.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

This upcoming week I think will be a telling sign of it we're still going to be stuck in the main trading range or if this time is different. Trading action was super positive on thurs and Friday but I don't want to get my hopes up quite yet. We've been on the cusp of breaking out to a new trading range before....only to be brought back down by big money and shenanigans.

I'm still impressed at how well wall st was able to cap the stock from breaking through an all time high during Q4 last year. Hopefully having Giga3 operational and Model Y early production will be enough to break

Should be an exciting week(in either direction)

 

[CorneliusXX]

Serious question, how did we get from here:



And here:

"Rivian purchased a Mitsubishi factory fully loaded capable of producing 240k ICEv per year that was active in 2015 and has $500M in the bank."

"Edit: Just checked, Rivian didn't purchase equipment when they purchased the factory. Rivian did say they will be stamping parts for other OEMs out of Normal IL in 2019."​

To this in just a year:







View attachment 470579

It does seem very strange. But could you imagine the arse kicking Bezos would hand out if his cash and reputation after announcing 100k Amazon vans would be made by Rivian were burned.

Amazon is probably the second most brutal company in terms of demanding results after Elon's companies (blue origin excepted).

 

[jerry33]

This is simply a very very narrow point of view. Not all people are like you.

Plenty people can't drive out there would be happy to schedule rides well in advance, this includes blind folks, people with brain or heart conditions, etc. Uber is simply way too expensive for their daily use.

Just teenagers going to sports and robotics clubs is a huge market by itself.

I agree there's a huge market, just like there is now for taxis and Uber and because robotaxi is less expensive, that market will be larger than it is today. But unless it's very close to as convenient as a personal car, few of those used to personal cars are likely to change.

 

[Singuy]

The same way Tesla can’t fully own their business in China?
The same way Tesla wasn’t going to be able to build any Gigafactories or a Supercharger Network all over the world?

Like that?

I mean Tesla is wasting it's time partnering up RIGHT NOW since they are supply limited per Elon. If Elon were to promise most of it's roof to Toll Brothers then how will anyone else buy one for the upcoming half a year to a year? And how will these partners logistically offer them if Elon doesn't even know precisely when they can manufacture a boatload of them since this is the beginning of the S curve and will be going through production hell? It's one thing to make single customer wait due to a set back because x part in the manufacturing chain is on backorder, it's another to F it up with huge builders like Toll/Taylor Morrison/Ryan/etc etc.

 

[mongo]

I might be wrong, but my understanding is that the solar + couple of powerwalls solution is still grid-tied and provides solution for normal daily shift of production - usage differences (where you produce more energy during the sunny day-light time than used, but need to use some energy during the dark hours). However, it does not give you the ability to operate off-grid for 2 main reasons:

1. Your system would not be able to power the house in case of a several day generation outage due to bad weather (stormy, cloudy for several days in a row). You would need much bigger battery packs for true off-grid worst case scenario (upto a week or two usage amount would need to be stored).

2. You need different inverters for off-grid use than grid-tied use. Inverter models that are designed for grid-tie application are synced to the grid to generate the same sinus wave of AC power and they simply SHUT DOWN, when the grid is down -- t least that is the case for my grid-tied roof-top solar system I have been using for 8 year snow.

Because of these points, I believe a 2 powerwall system will not save you in case of a several day outage. You maybe able to ride-out a short outage of a few hours, but not anything prolonged.

You need to have inverters that do linear load shedding based on voltage/ frequency. Otherwise they may not share well with PW when it gets full. Most new ones do. Powerwall and these inverters can live off grid indefinitely, it gets a little dicey if your PW hit minimum SOC. (PW is the sine wave source for the inverters, they don't know they are off grid)

The app lets you track reserves and adjust your usage to extend your ability to go without grid feed. Cloudy days still make power.

 

[GaryW]

Moving people from Detroit to Sparks, NV isn't an easy task. Also, the article points out that new EV manufacturing might not be union shops. A huge amount of value in an EV is in the battery cells, and absent Panasonic, no one is manufacturing battery cells in the US (although some foreign companies are intending to set up shop here to do that, but they aren't likely to be union shops either). IMHO, unions are correct to worry about EV adoption. But I also doubt they are going to let this disagreement with Democrats affect their alliance with them, they are too joined at the hip for that.The UAW may temper Democrat policies a bit, who knows...

I wonder if Tesla is waiting for the next recession to build out GF1. They added new solar this past week, and will add other space and equipment as needed. A big expansion could be very costly. If they offer a lot of construction and manufacturing jobs during a recession, they might face fewer hurdles.

Thoughts?

 

[Intl Professor]

With 940,000 homes losing power yesterday in NorCal, what % do you think might decide that a couple powerwalls and solar might be a good idea going forward?

RT

Knock, wood, we see—just then interrupted by a power outage likely caused by a local failure due to high winds—less danger of outages here in Sacramento due to our locally owned utility, SMUD. It is likely more diligent about maintenance and due to reliance a lot on hydro which is likely dispersed through Sierras though I have no idea about actual shape of any transmission lines. Also, we are very proud of our trees. If they go, we will fry like a forest and where we live we have to cut them down a lot, so even greater density on our block.

Because of the trees we are not likely to benefit from solar, which years ago Solarcity nixed. The garage is free of shade, but ridge line is east-west. I may ask them to take another look. Also, may try to get Homeowners' association to permit solar roof by Tesla as a demo for our re-roofing going forward. Nonetheless, I'm now seriously considering powerwall for backup purposes. Very seriously.

 

[jerry33]

Tesla is selling every Model 3 they can make.

They are not selling every Gen II vehicle they can make.

If that's true, then why did they increase production on S and X?

 

[EinSV]

Doesn't have to though: the Powerwall has to be able to power the fridges, the alarm system, the desktop computer, the smartphone chargers and the Starlink receiver. 30 kWh will last you for days of you don't insist on air conditioning.

Everything else is "discretionary luxury" in an emergency power grid shutdown.

OT for this thread but there are quite a few TMC members with solar+Powerwalls who reported that they were able to power indefinitely during the last CA power outage with minimal disruption.

Obviously there are variables like the size of the system v. power demands, and weather. Here are a couple examples:

We lost power Wednesday evening. Powerwalls took over without a flickering light, only my small computer UPS started beeping initially (as expected), but stopped once powerwall was below ~95%. Had excess solar during Thursday, so I dumped it into my car to avoid loosing it. Power came back early Thursday evening. Again no signs of the transition. The whole thing was as smooth as possible and we ended up with powerwalls almost full and the car having a higher charge level despite us using it during the day.

We couldn't be more pleased - Way to go, Tesla!

This time of year, if I keep my pool pump off or on limited low speed, I can go indefinitely. I have two Powerwalls and just under 10kW of PV. Once the batteries are full again, I plan to top up our cars. No curtailment!

Teslarati also had reports from other solar+Powerwall owners who had no issues during the last outage:

"Amidst the chaos surrounding the state, Tesla owners who purchased a Powerwall 2 battery with rooftop solar systems have reported that they are barely feeling the effects of the ongoing outage." Tesla owners weather PG&E's power outage as gas stations across CA shut down

 

[Fact Checking]

I'm still impressed at how well wall st was able to cap the stock from breaking through an all time high during Q4 last year. Hopefully having Giga3 operational and Model Y early production will be enough to break

By the time Q4 results were announced early Q1 data was in, and the big boys on Wall Street believed the data - unlike most of us.

This time there's:

• no big $7,500 step-down in the tax credit,
• nor a stock market crash affecting California Tesla customer net worth and buying power negatively,
• nor a government shutdown,
• nor an escalating China trade war,
• nor any "Delivery Hell" mishaps,
• and Tesla cash reserves are today also much higher than intra-quarter working capital requirements.

So while I won't say that "this time is different", it does look different.

Not advice.

 

[EVNow]

Doesn't have to though: the Powerwall has to be able to power the fridges, the alarm system, the desktop computer, the smartphone chargers and the Starlink receiver. 30 kWh will last you for days even if you do some cooking and have hot showers, if you don't insist on air conditioning.

Everything else is "discretionary luxury" in an emergency power grid shutdown.

Not in cold places in winter. Almost every year we have some loss of grid power - and always in winter. Some years it is one day - and some it could be a week. We need power to cook & heat the house - though the heat could be by using natural gas (we have heat pump + gas).

To get 10 kW (27 kWh) from power wall costs $17.5k, an equivalent gas fixed generator costs $6k.

 

[Hock1]

Unfortunately, that would be the definition of illegal insider trading and this is a crime you can bet the SEC would prosecute instead of looking the other way like they have been doing with the TSLA manipulators.

If the SEC ever decides it's in their best interest to go after the TSLA manipulators (perhaps because a Sanders, Warren or Yang gets elected), TSLA share shares will do some mind-boggling acrobatics that you couldn't even fathom as possible before you saw it with your own eyes.

-The TSLA situation is pretty unique in the history of all public companies (and not for the reasons TSLAQ thinks).
-The future is hard to see. Not TSLA's business plan but how all these events will unfold.
-Expect the unexpected. No one will predict in advance the timing or the substance of many of the possible triggers to the unwinding of the short positions.
-It might happen in an orderly fashion but there is something about the TSLA situation that makes me think it won't be all that orderly.

Place your bets and let them ride!

Yes. It is going to be EPIC!

 

[CorneliusXX]

I have looked at Friday's insane TSLA trading on the 1-second timeframe, and it was chaotic carnage with shorts clearly not in control of the price action, despite what appeared to be desperate measures.

So I agree that what we are seeing is unprecedented.

Not advice though.

Would you mind elaborating?

 

[GaryW]

I mean Tesla is wasting it's time partnering up RIGHT NOW since they are supply limited per Elon. If Elon were to promise most of it's roof to Toll Brothers then how will anyone else buy one for the upcoming half a year to a year? And how will these partners logistically offer them if Elon doesn't even know precisely when they can manufacture a boatload of them since this is the beginning of the S curve and will be going through production hell? It's one thing to make single customer wait due to a set back because x part in the manufacturing chain is on backorder, it's another to F it up with huge builders like Toll/Taylor Morrison/Ryan/etc etc.

Do we have data proving Tesla couldn’t scale solar roofs quickly if they received some large contracts?

The largest builders generally break new developments into segments? Of at most 1000-2000 homes at a time? Wouldn’t any of these end up being less than 1000 per week?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Let’s see who the shorts roll out of their bullpen before market opens.

will it be Lora - maybe but likely too weak.

will it be Tim Higgins and Charley - double team wrestlemania cage match style - possibly.

will it be chump Adam Jonas and a downgrade - could be but he’s kinda lost his magic star power.

stay tuned gentemens

They need the big guns. Arise Chanos!!

 

[EVNow]

By the time Q4 results were announced early Q1 data was in, and the big boys believed the data - unlike most of us.

Before the Q4 result was out - TSLA dropped $50 (from $350 to ~$300) after Musk sent out a mail about Q1 being bad. My Q4 related options never recovered from that blow. Rolling them hoping for TSLA recovery made it worse.

 

[SebastianR]

By the time Q4 results were announced early Q1 data was in, and the big boys on Wall Street believed the data - unlike most of us.
This time there's:

• no big $7,500 step-down in the tax credit,
• [...]
• and Tesla cash reserves are today also much higher than intra-quarter working capital requirements.

So while I won't say that "this time is different", it does look different.

Not advice.

+ massively better cost control - i.e. profits on declining revenues. If you want to talk about recession proofing your business, this is it...

So about the only "valid" short argument I heard is: "this can't be sustained, they are putting liabilities off and pulling revenues forward, this will end soon". Now, let me pretend, I don't know if they are right or wrong - then my logical next question would be - "why is Tesla doing that only now?" After a good Q3/Q4 2018 this kind of accounting acrobatics would have been needed for Q1 and also Q2 - why only now in Q3? (By the logic of the argument - i.e. that this kind of action will collapse in a quarter or two, they can't have done it before - otherwise this would be sustainable by now...)

I don't engage much with the TSLAQ folks, but I would be interested in their answer...