Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

This would be really cool if true (would rank it as rumour for now):

Tesla Model Y has completed trial production at GF3 and will be delivered to Chinese customers next summer : teslamotors

 

[Paracelsus]

I'm pretty sure that the SEC has long been controlled by fossil fuel interests.

Nobody would really look to see how the SEC is influenced.

The fossil fuel interests have now worked their way into decision making on US Public lands, where it is little more obvious.

Scoring the Trump Interior Department’s deregulatory hit list

Completely agree, @ABCTG - and this has been going on long before Trump's administration from the position of Secretary of Interior. Perhaps most problematic in the scope of our current Climate issues was the exponential growth of Fracking under the Obama administration, in large part helped along by Interior Secretary Ken Salazar. Prior to his appointment as Secretary of the Interior, Ken served as a Senator from Colorado during the exponential grown of Fracking in his own state. I don't know how supporting the Fracking industry became such a critical prerequisite for the position that is tasked with keeping Public lands in Public hands. History will judge all of these people quite poorly IMHO, as will Karma.

Interior Secretary: Hydraulic Fracking "Very Much a Necessary Part" of Natural Gas' Future

 

[Fact Checking]

This would be really cool if true (would rank it as rumour for now):

Tesla Model Y has completed trial production at GF3 and will be delivered to Chinese customers next summer : teslamotors

I think that's the "off road Model 3" visible up close in other shots:

... not a Model Y, which likely doesn't even have tooling installed at GF3 yet.

 

[hobbes]

Tomorrow Volkswagen ID 3 will begin series production - looks like we will have a crititcal observer from cleantechnica there:
Volkswagen Will Begin Series Production Of Its ID.3 Electric Car On Monday | CleanTechnica

 

[hobbes]

I think that's the "off road Model 3" visible up close in other shots:

... not a Model Y, which likely doesn't even have tooling installed at GF3 yet.

Can´t really tell anything from the picture, but to quote reddit:

The description of Jason Jang's latest GF3 Shanghai drone video states:
"Tesla Model Y has already completed trial production at GF3 and will be delivered to Chinese users next summer."

Unlikely he just made that up IMHO.

 

[Steve m]

At the risk of getting back on topic - I've looked at Tesla's overseas delivery data a bit more closely to compare the rate of shipments in 2019 QOQ. This data is taken from Franco Mossotto's Google Docs spreadsheet: Tesla Carriers. It is estimated that these ships are loaded at about 1000 vehicles per day.

As you can see, in Q4, the rate of vehicle loading per day in Q4 is pretty consistent with the peak rates in Q1-Q3, but they have a significant head start this Q. There are 3 more ships in the schedule for Q4 so far. Based on the average of about 2.4 loading days per ship this year, I project a minimum of 32 vehicle loading days of overseas shipments for Q4. That would beat Q3 by at least a couple of thousand vehicles. But - if they maintain this pace for another month or so - as in previous quarters, they could eclipse the Q3 overseas shipments by more than 20,000 vehicles. If they can pull this off Tesla could easily meet their delivery guidance of > 360,000 deliveries for 2019, even if US sales do not improve from the relatively lower rate reported for Q3. Wouldn't that be nice?

View attachment 472754

Last quarter Tesla sold 30.6 thousand cars in Europe. There were 7 carriers with an average load time of 3 days.

This implies about 1500 cars per day.

 

[JustMe]

Last quarter Tesla sold 30.6 thousand cars in Europe. There were 7 carriers with an average load time of 3 days.

This implies about 1500 cars per day.

Fabulous - so much the better!

 

[electracity]

Tomorrow Volkswagen ID 3 will begin series production - looks like we will have a crititcal observer from cleantechnica there:
Volkswagen Will Begin Series Production Of Its ID.3 Electric Car On Monday | CleanTechnica

This is exciting. VW may actually compete with Tesla for EV dollars. Although ID3 may just be another Bolt. Good but not good enough. The van (or whatever they call it) looks fun.

VW is betting their future on this: Beetle to Golf to ID3

 

[Remus]

True, it's just that Q1 generally needs more help than Q4 given seasonal demand - so pulling some profit forward to Q4 rather than leaving a larger AWD backlog for Q1 doesn't necessarily make sense. A small Q1 net loss would be much more negative (given the media & FUD fanfare) than a larger Q4 profit is positive. But i guess Tesla are highly confident of Q1 profitability in any case. Particularly if they are confident of very high FSD deferred revenue recognition in Q1.

Or perhaps they looked past Q over Q numbers and decided not to give a d to the short term share price.

 

[Navin]

Wonder who will be brought out of the bullpen tomorrow am premarket for downgrade to set the weekly tone.

 

[Tslynk67]

Hay gang! Have been off radar, road tripping to Denmark the last week, which is always a pleasure in a Tesla.

What was really interesting is that it was the first time I see the increased SuperCharging rates on my car - which is right on the limit for receiving them (October 2016 build, AP2 (just), 100kW pack). But yeah, it's impressive and shaves 5 minutes off each stop.

Said it before and say it again, which other car company improves your car with age? None except Tesla. Love it!

Note that the previous max kWh I'd seen was sub 120.

 

[Mike Smith]

Wonder who will be brought out of the bullpen tomorrow am premarket for downgrade to set the weekly tone.

I've been wondering when we'll hear from Tamberrino. He's overdue.

Edit: His current price target is $158 so I'm guessing that's why he doesn't want to talk about Tesla right now.

 

[sdtslafan]

Wonder who will be brought out of the bullpen tomorrow am premarket for downgrade to set the weekly tone.

Maybe Elon will come out and say the stock is overpriced again

 

[Prunesquallor]

Only the unintended exposures...

NHTSA Widens Investigation Into Ford Explorer Exhaust Leaks

Wow. I’m expecting a big hit to Ford’s stock price on Monday

 

[RobStark]

This is exciting. VW may actually compete with Tesla for EV dollars. Although ID3 may just be another Bolt. Good but not good enough. The van (or whatever they call it) looks fun.

VW is betting their future on this: Beetle to Golf to ID3

Another Bolt that starts at ~$3k less is exactly what Europeans want and will get.

Unlike 50k units per year unit capacity VW has promised 330k units per year capacity.

We Americans will not get the ID.3. We get the bigger CUVee ID.4

 

[Prunesquallor]

Another Bolt that starts at ~$3k less is exactly what Europeans want and will get.

Unlike 50k units per year unit capacity VW has promised 330k units per year capacity.

We Americans will not get the ID.3. We get the bigger CUVee ID.4

Imagine where VW could have been if they had started producing these five years ago instead of going down the dieselgate path.

 

[EVMeister]

Another Bolt that starts at ~$3k less is exactly what Europeans want and will get.

Unlike 50k units per year unit capacity VW has promised 330k units per year capacity.

We Americans will not get the ID.3. We get the bigger CUVee ID.4

It's worth pointing out, as I often see this misquoted as the ID.3 production figure... VW have targetted 330K MEB units per year across 6 different models. Just to remove possible ambiguity.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Interesting blog from Casey Handmer on everything Starlink. A long read, but informative.
https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2019/11/02/starlink-is-a-very-big-deal/
Starlink is a very big deal


MODERATOR EDIT:
A quick discussion amongst the Mods - unanimous agreement of the quality and scope of that blog post means that @prunesquallor’s post gets planted in the “Merit” thread.
So a big “thanks” for finding it and showing it...even if ever so tenuously related to TSLA etc.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Another Bolt that starts at ~$3k less is exactly what Europeans want and will get.

Unlike 50k units per year unit capacity VW has promised 330k units per year capacity.

We Americans will not get the ID.3. We get the bigger CUVee ID.4

VW has initially set a goal at 100k ID3s in the first year of production - but production has been delayed since. All we know right now for sure, is that the only available verison right now is the 1st Edition with a limited run number of 30k units.

 

[Fact Checking]

VW has initially set a goal at 100k ID3s in the first year of production - but production has been delayed since. All we know right now for sure, is that the only available verison right now is the 1st Edition with a limited run number of 30k units.

Also note that while production "starts" this November, actual first customer deliveries have been delayed to the summer of 2020:

2020 VW ID.3 Production Kicking Off In November

"The first set of deliveries will be planned for the summer of 2020."​

It is a mystery to me why they'd be waiting 7-8 months to deliver the first ID.3 to customers. Why stockpile cars, which they could be rolling out and could be getting feedback on?

My guess: volume production of the ID.3 got delayed, but they wanted to "start" production in 2019, to save face and to demonstrate to politicians that they are "on time". Angela Merkel will be there tomorrow.