Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mrdoubleb]

Also note that while production "starts" this November, actual first customer deliveries have been delayed to the summer of 2020:

2020 VW ID.3 Production Kicking Off In November

"The first set of deliveries will be planned for the summer of 2020."​

It is a mystery to me why they'd be waiting 7-8 months to deliver the first ID.3 to customers. Why stockpile cars, which they could be rolling out and could be getting feedback on?

My guess: volume production of the ID.3 got delayed, but they wanted to "start" production in 2019, to save face and to demonstrate to politicians that they are "on time". Angela Merkel will be there tomorrow.

Also, rumor has it many manufacturers are holding back EV deliveries until next year in Europe to help their 2020 fleet wide emission quotas.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Also note that while production "starts" this November, actual first customer deliveries have been delayed to the summer of 2020:

2020 VW ID.3 Production Kicking Off In November

"The first set of deliveries will be planned for the summer of 2020."​

It is a mystery to me why they'd be waiting 7-8 months to deliver the first ID.3 to customers. Why stockpile cars, which they could be rolling out and could be getting feedback on?

My guess: volume production of the ID.3 got delayed, but they wanted to "start" production in 2019, to save face and to demonstrate to politicians that they are "on time". Angela Merkel will be there tomorrow.

For the traditional car companies the start of 'serial production' means: First, cars for journalists to test on some luxurious and exotic location. Second, cars for dealers (paid for by the dealers) to put in their showrooms and give test drives. Third, cars for actual customers. But maybe I'm missing a few steps and actual customers come in fourth or fifth place.

 

[RobStark]

It's worth pointing out, as I often see this misquoted as the ID.3 production figure... VW have targetted 330K MEB units per year across 6 different models. Just to remove possible ambiguity.

Also for Europe.

There will be a Chinese VW factory producing MEB BEVs for domestic market and Tennessee factory producing for North American market.

 

[heltok]

Please don't do this (linking a 26 minute video as a reference). That's really annoying. I did my best and skimmed through the parts that looked like they might possibly contain your reference to them using reflectivity to determine what objects are made of and found nothing to support it - just more of their usual graphics which show no reflectivity-varying features (for example, no lane lines in the LIDAR scans).

If you want to use a video as a reference to something in the future, please be so kind as to give the time offset into the video.

Sorry, check the quote next to the video it said the time stamp. Forgot to do an extra enter...

 

[AZRI11]

NBC nightly news just had a report on Tesla's "alarming" number of fires. And in the report said that the NHSTA has open an investigation

 

[2virgule5]

NBC nightly news just had a report on Tesla's "alarming" number of fires. And in the report said that the NHSTA has open an investigation

They’ll throw anything they have to bring share price down, particularly when macro are good.

 

[Sancho]

Did I leap? Does it require a conspiracy for some of the stakeholders to spend billions attempting to influence public opinion? If you run a magazine, and one of your reporters writes an article, and you think it might cost you advertisers, do you still run it?

I suggest that billions will be spent influencing public opinion. These billions will be spent on those who can attract a lot of eyeballs. Especially when the owners of the eyeballs are influenced, in measurable ways, to look more kindly on those spending the billions.

Will this influence promote a social environment more amenable to those spending the billions? The people spending the money certainly think so, or they wouldn’t spend the money.

Edit: wording

My concern with the Big Oil Manipulation theory is that it often sounds defeatist. In fact, if I was a troll here (and I’m not suggesting you are!) I wouldn’t try to convince the longs here on facts and theories about the car or the industry that they can easily refute. Instead, I would say that it doesn’t matter that Tesla makes great cars that people want, because the game is rigged. No matter what Tesla does, they will continue to get bashed by the media in the pocket of Big Oil. Sell now, you can’t win.

Do oil companies spend money on PR? Yes. Do some short hedge funds make trades to try to influence the SP? Yes. Do individual shorts pollute the Internet with Tesla lies? Every hour.

Do these various constituencies have much impact on the SP or the demand for Tesla cars? I really doubt it. The overall market for investment, and the overall forum of public opinion, is far bigger than that. Demand for the cars is larger than Tesla can supply, and while the SP is lower than what we longs believe to be true value, there are other explanations for that beyond the bad actors (and, most importantly, the imminent success of Tesla is about to change the overall narrative).

 

[anthonyj]

My concern with the Big Oil Manipulation theory is that it often sounds defeatist. In fact, if I was a troll here (and I’m not suggesting you are!) I wouldn’t try to convince the longs here on facts and theories about the car or the industry that they can easily refute. Instead, I would say that it doesn’t matter that Tesla makes great cars that people want, because the game is rigged. No matter what Tesla does, they will continue to get bashed by the media in the pocket of Big Oil. Sell now, you can’t win.

Do oil companies spend money on PR? Yes. Do some short hedge funds make trades to try to influence the SP? Yes. Do individual shorts pollute the Internet with Tesla lies? Every hour.

Do these various constituencies have much impact on the SP or the demand for Tesla cars? I really doubt it. The overall market for investment, and the overall forum of public opinion, is far bigger than that. Demand for the cars is larger than Tesla can supply, and while the SP is lower than what we longs believe to be true value, there are other explanations for that beyond the bad actors (and, most importantly, the imminent success of Tesla is about to change the overall narrative).

I kind of agree. If big oil had so much power on the SP, the stock wouldn't be worth more than Ford and GM. It's just annoying hedge funds

 

[Steve m]

How did you come up with the conclusion that Intel is following Tesla's cameras only solution? I might have misunderstood your comment.


Mobileye plans to deploy fully autonomous cars in 4 years







Navigating the Winding Road Toward Driverless Mobility | Intel Newsroom






Now let's look at 3D object detection with cameras only.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1812.07179.pdf
The state of art stereo camera solution in good weather (cameras are at least a foot apart) claims


while <$10k lidars achieve 120m.

Mono camera solutions, like Tesla's have the 2 eyes in the line of direction. Therefore they have good 3D object detection on the side (can reach the 30m range mentioned above) but their performance straight ahead is worse. That shall mean less than 30m.
(additionally mono cameras can't do 3D when stopped)

Based on this I think current good weather camera only solutions might be good up to 35mph. But not higher (need to increase the cameras' resolution and keep the glass clean). If one drives faster and the neural network misses to recognize a stationary object on the road that is 50m away, it won't be able to stop in time. Radars have a lot of false positives for stationary objects due to their coarse resolution so they can't be used reliably for this.

A camera with 1024 pixels in width and a 60 degree angle of view will see any object wider then 2 inches at 50m. A 2 foot wide human will be picked up by 9 pixels at 150m. Plenty of time to stop.

 

[Fact Checking]

Also, rumor has it many manufacturers are holding back EV deliveries until next year in Europe to help their 2020 fleet wide emission quotas.

One thing I haven't seen mentioned yet: VW has been mum on ID.3 pricing - but German media is speculating that the "ID.3 1st Edition" will be released next summer just below €40,000:

Die Preise des VW ID.3 1st (2020): Frühbucher-Kosten und Listenpreise

"Alle Zeichen deuten auf folgendes Pricing: Der ID.3 First wird knapp unter 40.000 Euro kosten,"
​

And that's the base trim: there will be a "1st Plus" trim at €45,000 and a "1st Max" trim at €48,000.

The "ID.3 Standard Range" with €30,000 pricing is only expected in 2021.

I'm pretty sure that kind of pricing is going to be a negative surprise to most of the ~30k ID.3 reservation holders: for 1.5 years the VW ID.3 was marketed as a €30k car - comparable to the E-Golf, but ~40% higher range (~330 km instead of ~230 km) and faster charging.

But €40k moves the ID.3 1st into the price tier of the SR+, which will be price competitive with the ID.3 but has superior specs:

• At €42,000 it will offer 410 km of range (+25% range),
• larger car with more interior volume and more trunk volume,
• much better acceleration of 5.6s vs. 8.0 sec,
• 250 kW charging speed vs. 125 kW
• exclusive Supercharger network
• autosteer in the base model: the ID.3 only has autosteer in the most expensive "1st Max" trim.
• OTA updates, Spotify, etc.
• No frunk on any ID.3 trim level,
• easy AWD and range upgrade - the ID.3 1st is RWD only, even on the most expensive trim. The LR AWD Model 3 at €52k is comparable in price to the "ID.3 1st Max", but has AWD and almost twice the range (560 km WLTP versus "up to 330 km" WLTP.)
• There's numerous SR+ features not available on the base ID.3, only on the "ID.3 Plus" for €44,000: backup camera, TACC (Autopilot), keyless entry.

Tesla will also have the ability to lower SR+ prices, once the FCA credit income starts flowing.

I.e. if VW indeed prices the ID.3 1st at €38k-€39k, I don't see how it can compete against the Model 3.

 

[EinSV]

One thing I haven't seen mentioned yet: VW has been mum on ID.3 pricing - but German media is speculating that the "ID.3 1st Edition" will be released next summer just below €40,000. And that's the base price: there will be a "1st Plus" trim at €44,000 and a "1st Max" trim at €49,000.

The "ID.3 Standard Range" with €30,000 pricing is only expected in 2021.

I'm pretty sure that kind of pricing is going to be a negative surprise to most of the ~30k reservation holders: for 1.5 years the VW ID.3 was marketed as a €30k car - comparable to the E-Golf, but ~40% higher range (~330 km instead of ~230 km).

At those prices the Model 3 SR+ will be price competitive with the ID.3:

• At €42,000 it will offer 410 km of range (+25%),
• larger car with more interior volume and more trunk volume,
• much better acceleration of 5.6s vs. 8.0 sec,
• 250 kW charging speed vs. 125 kW
• exclusive Supercharger network
• autosteer in the base model: the ID.3 only has autosteer in the most expensive "1st Max" trim.
• OTA updates, Spotify, etc.
• easy AWD and range upgrade - the ID.3 is RWD only, even on the most expensive trim. The LR AWD Model 3 at €52k is comparable in price to the "ID.3 1st Max", but has AWD and almost twice the range (560 km WLTP versus "up to 330 km" WLTP.)

Tesla will also have the ability to lower SR+ prices, once the FCA credit income starts flowing.

I.e. if VW indeed prices the ID.3 1st at €38k-€39k, I don't see how it can compete against the Model 3.

Even more amazing, Tesla has a huge price/feature advantage over ID.3 in Europe despite paying a 10% tariff plus transportation costs from California.

In 2021, probably not long after the base ID.3 is finally released, GF4 should be up and running which will eliminate the tariff and drastically reduce transportation costs.

 

[KarenRei]

One thing I haven't seen mentioned yet: VW has been mum on ID.3 pricing - but German media is speculating that the "ID.3 1st Edition" will be released next summer just below €40,000:

Die Preise des VW ID.3 1st (2020): Frühbucher-Kosten und Listenpreise

"Alle Zeichen deuten auf folgendes Pricing: Der ID.3 First wird knapp unter 40.000 Euro kosten,"
​

And that's the base trim: there will be a "1st Plus" trim at €44,000 and a "1st Max" trim at €49,000.

The "ID.3 Standard Range" with €30,000 pricing is only expected in 2021.

I'm pretty sure that kind of pricing is going to be a negative surprise to most of the ~30k reservation holders: for 1.5 years the VW ID.3 was marketed as a €30k car - comparable to the E-Golf, but ~40% higher range (~330 km instead of ~230 km) and faster charging.

But €40k moves the ID.3 1st into the price tier of the SR+, which will be price competitive with the ID.3:

• At €42,000 it will offer 410 km of range (+25% range),
• larger car with more interior volume and more trunk volume,
• much better acceleration of 5.6s vs. 8.0 sec,
• 250 kW charging speed vs. 125 kW
• exclusive Supercharger network
• autosteer in the base model: the ID.3 only has autosteer in the most expensive "1st Max" trim.
• OTA updates, Spotify, etc.
• easy AWD and range upgrade - the ID.3 is RWD only, even on the most expensive trim. The LR AWD Model 3 at €52k is comparable in price to the "ID.3 1st Max", but has AWD and almost twice the range (560 km WLTP versus "up to 330 km" WLTP.)

Tesla will also have the ability to lower SR+ prices, once the FCA credit income starts flowing.

I.e. if VW indeed prices the ID.3 1st at €38k-€39k, I don't see how it can compete against the Model 3.

For EPA figures, the car is roughly Kona-sized and shaped (and the mass difference on the ID.3 standard roughly matches the battery difference, too). I expect energy consumption to be roughly equivalent to that of the Kona. So for estimating EPA range numbers, I'd start with the Kona's usable capacity (64kWh), and then adjust up and down based on the ID.3 variants usable capacity. 258*45/64 = 174mi; 258*58/64 = 225mi; 258*77/64 = 298mi. Maybe a bit more on the low end (lighter) and a bit less on the high end (heavier).

 

[AlMc]

My concern with the Big Oil Manipulation theory is that it often sounds defeatist. In fact, if I was a troll here (and I’m not suggesting you are!) I wouldn’t try to convince the longs here on facts and theories about the car or the industry that they can easily refute. Instead, I would say that it doesn’t matter that Tesla makes great cars that people want, because the game is rigged. No matter what Tesla does, they will continue to get bashed by the media in the pocket of Big Oil. Sell now, you can’t win.

Do oil companies spend money on PR? Yes. Do some short hedge funds make trades to try to influence the SP? Yes. Do individual shorts pollute the Internet with Tesla lies? Every hour.

Do these various constituencies have much impact on the SP or the demand for Tesla cars? I really doubt it. The overall market for investment, and the overall forum of public opinion, is far bigger than that. Demand for the cars is larger than Tesla can supply, and while the SP is lower than what we longs believe to be true value, there are other explanations for that beyond the bad actors (and, most importantly, the imminent success of Tesla is about to change the overall narrative).

I kind of agree. If big oil had so much power on the SP, the stock wouldn't be worth more than Ford and GM. It's just annoying hedge funds

I am not sure that the objective of Big Oil is to kill Tesla. Putting money into supporting others to create/perpetuate FUD is a way to slow the progress so that they may reap as much money as possible from non renewable energy.

I believe most of the people behind this are smart enough to know that eventually non renewables will run out and renewables will be the only alternative.

so, their goal is to slow the process so they may reap the max benefits before this transition happens.

 

[jhm]

OMG can we please set up as separate thread for discussing self-driving edge cases? I might have to plunge an ice pick into my temporal lobe to make it stop hurting. Please, I beg of you. Take it to another thread.

Ok, the ice pick is safely stowed in the kitchen drawer...for now.

 

[Remus]

Interesting blog from Casey Handmer on everything Starlink. A long read, but informative.
Starlink is a very big deal


MODERATOR EDIT:
A quick discussion amongst the Mods - unanimous agreement of the quality and scope of that blog post means that @prunesquallor’s post gets planted in the “Merit” thread.
So a big “thanks” for finding it and showing it...even if ever so tenuously related to TSLA etc.

Ok so space X will be bigger than the old AT&T and filthy rich.

 

[EVNow]

For the traditional car companies the start of 'serial production' means: First, cars for journalists to test on some luxurious and exotic location. Second, cars for dealers (paid for by the dealers) to put in their showrooms and give test drives. Third, cars for actual customers. But maybe I'm missing a few steps and actual customers come in fourth or fifth place.

For comparison - Nissan Leaf's job #1 was on Oct 31, 2010 and the first actual delivery (i.e. not for PR) in US was on Jan 1st, 2011. So, 2 months.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Unlikely he just made that up IMHO.

He could have meant model 3 but made a mistake

 

[PeterJA]

Ok so space X will be bigger than the old AT&T and filthy rich.

SpaceX needs capital for the Mars mission, but maybe they will have enough left over to accelerate Tesla's expansion (by buying bonds) if Tesla Network doesn't gush profits first.

TSLAQ must be morons if they think Elon won't use his companies to protect each other from bankwuptcy. He has done it before.

 

[Thekiwi]

Tesla PR needs to get out in front of this fire nonsense and lay out the stats about how safe Tesla’s are compared to ICE vehicles - get out in front of as many tv news cameras to comment as possible - opportunity to turn this FUD into a big PR win.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla PR needs to get out in front of this fire nonsense and lay out the stats about how safe Tesla’s are compared to ICE vehicles - get out in front of as many tv news cameras to comment as possible - opportunity to turn this FUD into a big PR win.

They publish yearly fire stats, so the next update should come in January.