Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Sounds like there's a SolarEdge Inverter supply shortage in my area to finish our solar install ("can't keep in stock"). Currently up to three crews (=3 homes) per day in Phx area. Not "volume" yet, but they just re-engaged with utility SRP out here, (and you know how exp curves go with Tesla).

Still needs the white TESLA logo above, but 2 PWs lifted off the ground and proudly visible.
Tesla Cool grey 11 for paint works great!

What else they got?

 

[wipster]

hey, there were people asking for amphibious mode, that looks like a candidate

Nah, actually a 1965 Dodge Deora built off an A100 chassis... lovely!

 

[kbM3]

...pick those apart to check that they can be homolocated.

Homolocated? How? Using Gaydar?

 

[Skryll]

Thanks for exposing me as an ultra bull. You are right but i do not know how to change the username.

My long term valuation for tsla is in the 100s of trillions if in the future spaceX only provides long distance travelling to the mars and tsla taking care of all the machines building machines to colonize mars and more planets, other solar system etc.

Concerned ultra-bull. Got it.

 

[M3Rider]

It parallels the situation with corn in the USA. Yes, we eat corn *some* corn and animals eat even more, but much of it is for ethanol production for ICE. If we stop using it for ethanol, then we grow a heck of a lot less of it! In other words, yes, a lot of that agricultural burning in India can be attributed directly to being addicted to ICE's.

I don't want to hear how not *all* cane sugar is made into ethanol.
I don't want to hear whether they burn the field immediately *before* harvest or right *after* harvest.
I don't want to hear how they *could* harvest it mechanically to reduce air pollution.
I don't want to hear how *some* agricultural burning would still happen even if they transitioned entirely to EV's.

I started this by saying that EV's can't completely solve India's air pollution problem (obviously) but that it could significantly reduce air pollution as much of it is due to ICE emissions, either directly or indirectly. It's not clear what you are pushing back on. India needs to modernize and EV's are just one part of the equation.

Wow. Do you realize that stating what you want or don't want on a public forum does not give you leverage in making it happen?

The reality is that ethanol is far from biggest contributor to India's sugar cane production.
They used to be #2 producer in the world before the ethanol was allowed in 2018, first from by-products of sugar production, then from sugar cane juice.

They actually had a glut of sugar because of over-production and ethanol was promoted to stabilize sugar prices and reduce oil imports.

Ethanol does not currently account for a large share of sugar cane produced, therefore its immediate elimination would not make a major impact to the fires/smoke.

BT Buzz: Bailed out for now, sugar sector needs structural reforms

With ethanol contributing nearly 10-15 per cent of the sugar mills' turnover for integrated sugar mills, remunerative ethanol prices are expected to encourage sugar mills to enhance the supply of ethanol for blending, thereby supporting their revenues, profitability and improving their ability to pay sugarcane farmers.

They had structural issues there too with mills unable to pay timely to the farmers.

So, even though you don't want to hear about mechanized harvesting of sugar cane, removing 10% ethanol from the mills will not solve 90% of the fires.

The narrative I'm pushing is that we need to maintain a sensible perspective of things and not be the opposite of FUDsters who say that Tesla is a root of all problems.

If fires are due to the sugar consumption, we shouldn't be saying that eliminating ethanol and converting to EVs will eliminate all the fires and air pollution.

 

[Thekiwi]

I would love it if the new pickup looked something like this:View attachment 473526

WTF is that?? I have never been more horrified & intrigued at the same time. It sickens me yet I cant look away....

 

[madodel]

I would love it if the new pickup looked something like this:View attachment 473526

 

[RobStark]

How strange is it that Diess says he's all in for electrification and commits to reducing VW emissions by 30% in next five years,
yet also says he is committed to reducing it to zero over the following 25 years! That doesn't strike me as a very aggressive time frame!

"At Volkswagen’s ceremony celebrating the start of ID.3 production, CEO Herbert Diess made several comments on the electrification of the industry. In particular, he stated that batteries, as opposed to hydrogen, are a quicker and cheaper way to reduce automotive industry emissions. He also called for a price on carbon and committed to reducing his company’s fleet carbon emissions by 30% by 2025, and to zero carbon by 2050."

VW sells in underdeveloped countries like Pakistan and Nigeria. It will be quite a long time for an effective national grid is in place. Only then can we start talking about sales being 100 BEV in those countries.

 

[Sparky4life]

Please show me a truck driver that only drives 55 mph (unless the truck is badly broken).

 

[Thekiwi]

How does everyone think Tesla will adjust to the new German EV incentive?

SR+ currently costs 44,390 euros in Germany.

new EV incentives:

Cars under €40,000: €6,000 incentive
Cars €40,000 - €60,000: €5,000 incentive
Cars over €60,000: no incentive

A $1,000 difference in incentive doesn’t really seem like enough for Tesla to worry about trying to introduce a model below €40k, Perhaps if SR+ drops in price next year then they might think about a software locked SR at €39,999

 

[MC3OZ]

VW sells in underdeveloped countries like Pakistan and Nigeria. It will be quite a long time for an effective national grid is in place. Only then can we start talking about sales being 100 BEV in those countries.

Or perhaps build solar and wind powered micro-grids with storage, but that will also take a long time.

There are a abundance of cheap 2 and 3 wheel transport options with small batteries, that don't need a lot of electrcity to charge them.

Given those options and compact EVs with smaller batteries, they can start in cities, whatever type of grid they use it can be built progressively.

If EVs really take off in affluent countries, there will be an abundance of cheap 2nd hand ICE cars, that they will need to ship to developing countries to try to prevent resale values absolutely tanking..

It is difficult for VM to guess correctly, whatever they guess, they could be wrong... your argument is valid, my argument is valid, we don't know which argument is right... no one knows.

 

[JustMe]

How strange is it that Diess says he's all in for electrification and commits to reducing VW emissions by 30% in next five years,
yet also says he is committed to reducing it to zero over the following 25 years! That doesn't strike me as a very aggressive time frame!

"At Volkswagen’s ceremony celebrating the start of ID.3 production, CEO Herbert Diess made several comments on the electrification of the industry. In particular, he stated that batteries, as opposed to hydrogen, are a quicker and cheaper way to reduce automotive industry emissions. He also called for a price on carbon and committed to reducing his company’s fleet carbon emissions by 30% by 2025, and to zero carbon by 2050."

I wonder if the relatively gradual timescales for electrification by some automakers is related to job protection of their workforce. EV assembly is much simpler than ICE, and may be more amenable to automation. A sudden changeover could leave thousands of redundant workers.

In the US, we just had a long strike against GM over downsizing and other issues. And it’s my understanding that it’s more difficult for companies to downsize in Europe due to job protections. Twenty years or so may seem like a more manageable timeframe for such a significant rework of their product lines.

Of course, the market may not evolve at their preferred pace...

 

[JusRelax]

How does everyone think Tesla will adjust to the new German EV incentive?

SR+ currently costs 44,390 euros in Germany.

new EV incentives:

Cars under €40,000: €6,000 incentive
Cars €40,000 - €60,000: €5,000 incentive
Cars over €60,000: no incentive

A $1,000 difference in incentive doesn’t really seem like enough for Tesla to worry about trying to introduce a model below €40k, Perhaps if SR+ drops in price next year then they might think about a software locked SR at €39,999

Looks like another usage for the rarely-purchased Canada Model 3 SR-:

Tesla Gets Creative For Model 3 Customers In Canada | CleanTechnica

EDIT: Is this like the Canadian initiative where, as long as the base model is below €40,000, all Model 3's get the greater incentive? If not, then I doubt they'd go for the larger incentive.

EDIT 2: This is not like the Canadian initiative. As is the case, I don't think they will make any attempt for the extra €1k incentive.

 

[JustMe]

How does everyone think Tesla will adjust to the new German EV incentive?

SR+ currently costs 44,390 euros in Germany.

new EV incentives:

Cars under €40,000: €6,000 incentive
Cars €40,000 - €60,000: €5,000 incentive
Cars over €60,000: no incentive

A $1,000 difference in incentive doesn’t really seem like enough for Tesla to worry about trying to introduce a model below €40k, Perhaps if SR+ drops in price next year then they might think about a software locked SR at €39,999

I expect Tesla will be perfectly happy with this incentive structure. They don’t seem to be working that hard to reach sub-$40k Euro market with their current products and strong demand. So I don’t expect any discounts. But what do I know

 

[FreqFlyer]

View attachment 473542

Maybe in California, but please come to Texas, on I-35 between Dallas and San Antonio, three lanes wide each direction and the posted speed limit is 75, but the real speed limit is 80-85 EV or ICE. You will be surprised how fast 18 wheels can go, and who passing you while you are at 80. And that is during the day, wait till the wee hours of the night.

 

[MC3OZ]

I wonder if the relatively gradual timescales for electrification by some automakers is related to job protection of their workforce. EV assembly is much simpler than ICE, and may be more amenable to automation. A sudden changeover could leave thousands of redundant workers.

In the US, we just had a long strike against GM over downsizing and other issues. And it’s my understanding that it’s more difficult for companies to downsize in Europe due to job protections. Twenty years or so may seem like a more manageable timeframe for such a significant rework of their product lines.

Of course, the market may not evolve at their preferred pace...

I think there are many considerations:-

• The have to have the batteries, it takes time and money to get that in place.
• There is a fair bit of R&D and investment needed - again time and money
• Costs of retiring old plant, and making workers redundant...

Given all these costs above they are a bit risk adverse on going all in until they are 100% sure of demand. I have some sympathy, they are in a tricky position..

The other thing is due to all the time and money considerations ... volume production is going to lag a decision to go all in by 2-3 years, possibly more... it is hard for big organisations to move quickly and make risky decisions in a complex environment..

Unfortunately moving too slowly is a risk that is only apparent in hindsight.

I now view VW as a pretty much all in, what we are seeing is mostly the lag, and a bit of risk minimisation....

I wonder more about other car makers, who I don't think are all in.

 

[LYTRIDR]

It parallels the situation with corn in the USA. Yes, we eat corn *some* corn and animals eat even more, but much of it is for ethanol production for ICE. If we stop using it for ethanol, then we grow a heck of a lot less of it! In other words, yes, a lot of that agricultural burning in India can be attributed directly to being addicted to ICE's.

I don't want to hear how not *all* cane sugar is made into ethanol.
I don't want to hear whether they burn the field immediately *before* harvest or right *after* harvest.
I don't want to hear how they *could* harvest it mechanically to reduce air pollution.
I don't want to hear how *some* agricultural burning would still happen even if they transitioned entirely to EV's.

I started this by saying that EV's can't completely solve India's air pollution problem (obviously) but that it could significantly reduce air pollution as much of it is due to ICE emissions, either directly or indirectly. It's not clear what you are pushing back on. India needs to modernize and EV's are just one part of the equation.

I did some research on uses of corn in the USA. Here's what I found:

World of Corn 2019

Short summary:
Feeding animals for protein/milk production ~41%
Ethanol ~34.5%
Exports: (Probably mostly for the ethanol and animal feed)15.4%
Human consumption ~8%

It is really pretty extraordinary how little of this stuff humans actually eat directly. BEV adoption will put enormous pressure on the price of corn, land prices, and the entire ag economy. The way the US Senate and Electoral college are gerrymandered, we will be seeing no small amount of political pressure following along with the stresses on the local economies.

The other thing to keep in mind is that even considering no deterioration of demand due to BEV ramping, production will continue to increase.

Historical Corn Grain Yields for the U.S. (Purdue University)

This chart shows how the per acre increase in production has ramped along a fairly tidy trendline, but what it does not show is how good modern hybrids have become. Land that was previously not suitable for corn farming is now producing well, so as yield increases on a per acre basis, it also increases the acres planted. With all this in mind, unless there is a huge discovery (bioplastics for example) I see a glut of corn in the medium term and a lot of pain, disruption, and turmoil in corn country.

On a more positive note, I did a little calculation for land use, and one can generate almost 100x the miles with an acre of solar panels vs an acre of corn ethanol, though it costs a bit more to plant a solar field than a cornfield.

 

[shootformoon]

So you, actually think the current order flow is the best tsla can get? The $320 SP is the best tsla can get?

It is sad you, like a few other longs, try to put me into the short group. And what entitles you to be a real bull: claiming everything is perfect and accepting the toothlessness of FUD?

Concerned ultra-bull. Got it.

 

[HG Wells]

For me, with 6 Billion in the bank, I don't really care if they show profitability in Q4 or not. As long as the growth is there and they are showing continued signs of ramping Model Y and Giga 3 I'm ok.

Dan

I knew some people on this forum are well off, but how did you make 6 BILLION ?

 

[Krugerrand]

Well I've sold all my shares (at a loss) because it's going down the tubes for lack of a license in China (who never wanted Tesla to make cars there anyway).

It's like a bunch of long-tailed cats in a room (Tesla factory?) full of rocking chairs. JHRC, people, have a 'lud.

(Full disclosure: I didn't sell my shares.)

I feel it’s more like this: