Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

So, even though you don't want to hear about mechanized harvesting of sugar cane, removing 10% ethanol from the mills will not solve 90% of the fires.

No, it will only solve 10% of them. Which is significant.

The narrative I'm pushing is that we need to maintain a sensible perspective of things and not be the opposite of FUDsters who say that Tesla is a root of all problems.

If fires are due to the sugar consumption, we shouldn't be saying that eliminating ethanol and converting to EVs will eliminate all the fires and air pollution.

But I specifically started this conversation by saying that obviously EV's will not solve *all* air pollution problems! So I don't know where you got that crazy idea. I guess some people think in terms of all or nothing.

Since we can't stop all carbon emissions, it's hopeless to try to reduce them. Let's just throw our hands up in the air since there is absolutely nothing we could do. /s

 

[CorneliusXX]

He started posting yesterday, so technically 3?
But nothing sensational.

Today though...
1) <7:13
2) We’re making foundational upgrades to the core Tesla corporate OS. 2FA right after that.
3) Yes to 20 miles of underwater hyperloop to a BFR launch pad.
Pretty productive so far.

Sometimes I'm worried he will need several lives for everything he's planning for us.

Regarding the second tweet. I wonder if this could be in relation to what @neroden had been stating was Tesla's biggest threat - an internal communications problem. Is the foundational upgrade designed to improve methods of integrating customer comms with accounts, supply chain, etc in a more streamlined manner?

I wonder if there will be a bigger announcement around this topic. Elon had no need to say anything other than 2FA is in the works but our team is busy with other things. Why specifically mention the foundational upgrade?

 

[RobStark]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Tesla Reaches Preliminary Battery-Supply Deal With CATL
Tesla Inc. has reached a preliminary agreement to start using CATL as a battery supplier for cars made in China from as early as next year, and the companies are in talks to expand the relationship globally, according to people familiar with the matter.

The batteries would go into Model 3 cars produced at Tesla’s factory near Shanghai, which is slated to begin operating this year. But the companies still need to iron out details such as how many batteries Tesla will purchase, and separate discussions are underway on a potential global supply contract, the people said. Tesla will use batteries from Panasonic Corp. and LG Chem Ltd. in China in the meantime, one of the people said.

Doesn't sound like Tesla is making their own cells and that "battery and module" building at GF 3 is for battery packs and battery modules.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Who here has been naughty?

'Infinite leverage' — some Robinhood users have been trading with unlimited borrowed money

"The cheat code was being shared on social media site Reddit, with one trader claiming he took a $1,000,000 position in stock using only a $4,000 deposit. Through Robinhood Gold, the start-up’s subscription service, users can borrow money from the company to make trades. The backdoor was essentially free money and was being called “infinite leverage” and the “infinite money cheat code” by Reddit users who discovered it."

 

[RobStark]

Or perhaps build solar and wind powered micro-grids with storage, but that will also take a long time.

There are a abundance of cheap 2 and 3 wheel transport options with small batteries, that don't need a lot of electrcity to charge them.

Given those options and compact EVs with smaller batteries, they can start in cities, whatever type of grid they use it can be built progressively.

If EVs really take off in affluent countries, there will be an abundance of cheap 2nd hand ICE cars, that they will need to ship to developing countries to try to prevent resale values absolutely tanking..

It is difficult for VM to guess correctly, whatever they guess, they could be wrong... your argument is valid, my argument is valid, we don't know which argument is right... no one knows.

VW sells to the upper class and upper middle class in these countries.

These folks don't buy electric scooters or tuk tuks.

Reliable Microgrids with PV and BES all over Nigeria,Pakistan, and similar countries much before 2050 is pure Western Liberal Fantasy Land.

Herbert Deiss has to plan to do business in the actual world.

Getting upper class and upper middle class folks in these countries to buy PHEV with large AER and getting said customers to plug-in would be a huge win.

No one can tell the future with certainty but I am pretty sure Herbert is right here.

 

[StealthP3D]

New FUD piece on CNBC to snuff out peoples plan to buy a Model Y:

Never spend more than this amount of your income on a car, says finance expert and millionaire

Apparently, you need a household income of over $1.5 million annually to justify buying a Tesla Model Y. CNBC groups the Model Y in with the Lamborghini Huracan and the Bently Continental.

You shouldn't buy a Ford F-150 unless your annual household income is $250,000 - $500,000. But what costs more to own? A Model Y or an F-150? Unless you leave it parked in your driveway 24/7, the F-150 costs more.

 

[woodisgood]

New FUD piece on CNBC to snuff out peoples plan to buy a Model Y:

Never spend more than this amount of your income on a car, says finance expert and millionaire

Apparently, you need a household income of over $1.5 million annually to justify buying a Tesla Model Y. CNBC groups the Model Y in with the Lamborghini Huracan and the Bently Continental.

You shouldn't buy a Ford F-150 unless your annual household income is $250,000 - $500,000. But what costs more to own? A Model Y or an F-150? Unless you leave it parked in your driveway 24/7, the F-150 costs more.

Quite a dumb mistake (purposeful?) on their part.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Elon Musk speaks at Air Force 'Pitch Day' as military seeks to deepen ties to commercial space - CNN

 

[Thekiwi]

Just my own musings but I think Apple may have quit its car project.

Yesterday Apple announced a $3.5 Billion plan for affordable housing in Silicon Valley, which included $300 million of apple owned land in San Jose for affordable housing development

Flashback to 2015: Apple buys $300 million of land in San Jose, reportedly for future facilities for its car project.

Project Titan at the root of Apple’s massive north San Jose land grab

I have no idea if it is the same land, but the amount and city happen to be the same, so its at least worth some speculation.

What does this mean for Tesla? Well if my wild speculation is close to the truth, the most well resourced company on earth no longer may be interested in competing with Tesla. It also means Apple might have decided to partner, or acquire, to compete in the car space (I’ll let everyone else speculate what that might mean for Tesla).

 

[anthonyj]

How Tesla’s Rock-Solid Resale Values Can Make Buying A New One A Better Deal Than Buying A Used One

How Tesla’s Rock-Solid Resale Values Can Make Buying A New One A Better Deal Than Buying A Used One

"Though you may think it would be prudent to look for a used 2018 Tesla Model 3 compact sedan in the hopes you’ll save a few bucks over ordering a new model, think again.

Though you won’t find many up for grabs as yet, according to Kelley Blue Book, a dealer in the Chicago area would typically ask $47,323 for a 2018 Model 3 with average miles and in good condition or better. Several are listed on Carfax.com for between around $40,000 to nearly $50,000.

By comparison, a brand new Model 3 can be ordered for $39,480, less the $1,875 tax credit that remains available through the end of 2019. That means a pre-owned version with several thousand miles on the odometer would be listed at as much as $10,000 more than a factory fresh version. The Model 3 Performance fares better, as a new example equipped with enhanced Autopilot goes for $63,990, and would list at a dealership for $52,150. At that, the only 2018 Model 3 Performance we found being offered on Carfax within several hundred miles of Chicago was selling for $58,800, which is only $3,340 less than a new model when you factor in the tax credit."

This is super untrue for Model S owners. The depreciation is insane. Used buyers are getting the cars dirt cheap

 

[Thekiwi]

Just my own musings but I think Apple may have quit its car project.

Yesterday Apple announced a $3.5 Billion plan for affordable housing in Silicon Valley, which included $300 million of apple owned land in San Jose for affordable housing development

Flashback to 2015: Apple buys $300 million of land in San Jose, reportedly for its future facilities its car project.

Project Titan at the root of Apple’s massive north San Jose land grab

I have no idea if it is the same land, but the amount and city happen to be the same, so its at least worth some speculation.

What does this mean for Tesla? Well if my wild speculation is close to the truth, the most well resourced company on earth no longer may be interested in competing with Tesla. It also means Apple might have decided to partner, or acquire, to compete in the car space (I’ll let everyone else speculate what that might mean for Tesla).

Quick followup: after a quick search online, can confirm that IT IS THE SAME LAND.

 

[capster]

MOD:

Pretty poor quality of posts in today's basket, everyone*. If I go back to cutting off my access to the internet, it's unlikely to solve that problem, though it likely will diminish the pain in my eyes.

But I think there are other ways to raise the bar. Maybe all of you can, too....

*As in, "listen up, everyone!" Not as in every post was pathetic, let alone deplorable.

Hmmm

 

[Antares Nebula]

Just my own musings but I think Apple may have quit its car project.

Yesterday Apple announced a $3.5 Billion plan for affordable housing in Silicon Valley, which included $300 million of apple owned land in San Jose for affordable housing development

Flashback to 2015: Apple buys $300 million of land in San Jose, reportedly for its future facilities its car project.

Project Titan at the root of Apple’s massive north San Jose land grab

I have no idea if it is the same land, but the amount and city happen to be the same, so its at least worth some speculation.

What does this mean for Tesla? Well if my wild speculation is close to the truth, the most well resourced company on earth no longer may be interested in competing with Tesla. It also means Apple might have decided to partner, or acquire, to compete in the car space (I’ll let everyone else speculate what that might mean for Tesla).

Interesting. I maintain that Apple is the number one threat for Tesla. Not VW, not Mercedes, not GM or F. If they have indeed dropped out, that is welcome news! But the above piece of news, while a valuable data point, is obviously not conclusive. I can't imagine Apple giving up that easily, unless they are indeed going to partner or acquire.

Though, like many here, I do not advocate it, I think there is a real possibility that Apple may be looking at Tesla in some capacity. They're not stupid; surely they must at least be considering it. At the least, it may cause the stock to shoot up if word got out, even if Musk and company are not interested. This is something I'm definitely watching (and maybe worth playing with some short term options).

 

[Antares Nebula]

This is super untrue for Model S owners. The depreciation is insane. Used buyers are getting the cars dirt cheap

Did you see my post (below)? So this is then true (prices are dropping for S,X)?

Anybody know what the deal with the below story is? FUD? Or due to Raven causing older model S,X prices to drop? Some of the used price drops took place before Raven, which could be due to Tesla lowering prices on S,X earlier, and maybe also due to model 3 pushing S,X lower??

CarMax has stopped selling used Teslas

"Since last summer, used Tesla prices began a rapid descent. As we reported last year, in October 2018, the average used Tesla sold for $87.000 at CarMax. By December of that same year, the average Tesla price dropped to $60,400 — a drop of 31% in just a couple of months.

The price decline of used Teslas came as inventory swelled and the cars continued to age. By September, before they disappeared entirely from CarMax's inventory, the average Tesla was selling for less than $45,000. The declining price had a lot to do with aging Teslas as well as a small number of less-expensive used Model 3s becoming available, but the trend was clear.

It's unclear why CarMax has ceased used Tesla sales. It's possible that Tesla is looking to maintain control of aftermarket prices. It's also possible that CarMax is simply choosing to stick to cars that are easier to rehabilitate and warranty."

 

[SteveG3]

Catching up on the thread, wanted to give my two cents re today's discussion.

I wish we'd never had to talk about FUD and Tesla. Of course, it can be frustrating how pervasive the FUD has been for years and years. It's encouraging that new beating of the FUD drum seems less and less effective re the stock price.

All that said, as to a member here bringing up their frustration with the FUD and/or concern re its impact... that has my empathy.

It has been a real concern.

I was at the annual meeting in June, and when this topic came up there for ten minutes (at 1:22:40) the tone of the room markedly shifted to one with a sense of focus, camaraderie, relief, and enthusiasm that the topic was being brought out in the open. Elon's initial response to the first shareholder to raise the topic was, "it's very distressing... it makes me sad... I don't know what to do about it." That said, he seemed uplifted by the topic being brought up in a supportive way, including several suggested responses in the discussion (more than half shouted from the crowd, so, you have to listen closely if you want to hear them).

At one point, 1:30:35 in the video, in reference to this rampant phenomena he'd already called ~"the most crazy disinformation campaign I've ever seen," Elon paused, and said "I agree we need to take action here."

Finally, fwiw, my personal take on what the impact has been/is

- yes, new FUD seems less impactful on the stock

- yes, as someone pointed out here last week, the microscope probably actually makes Tesla raise the bar even higher

- I do think FUD has and continues to reduce demand for the products

- Tesla may be supply constrained today, but, I do think plans have been shifted due to the FUD impacting demand (i.e., the MR being created, the SR/SR+ being pushed out early, several price cuts in Q1)

- Even if Tesla is supply constrained today, Tesla's demand cushion has taken a material hit... two examples of this,

1) the Q1 price cuts, and early push out of the SR/SR+ I mentioned just above. we can say this was because Tesla was surprised by just how much pull forward there was from Q1 '19 to Q4 '18 due to the first reduction in the US tax credit for Tesla, and I think it was... but, had demand not been suppressed by FUD, I strongly suspect surplus demand would have been more than enough to override that phenomena, and the rash price cuts and moving up of SR/SR+ production would not have been needed.

2) the last explicit number we got suggested about 10% more demand than supply... well, it's much easier to shrug off the potential of a recession in making product and plant production plans in the midst of Teslamania with demand outstripping supply by something on the order of 50% than when your demand is just slightly outstripping supply (that 10% number a month or two ago was framed as a positive, i.e, an uptick in demand).



tl;dr I may not agree with all the interpretations of the member who brought up concerns re the impact of FUD today, but, raising such concerns didn't strike me as disingenuous or out of left field.

 

[MC3OZ]

VW sells to the upper class and upper middle class in these countries.

These folks don't buy electric scooters or tuk tuks.

Reliable Microgrids with PV and BES all over Nigeria,Pakistan, and similar countries much before 2050 is pure Western Liberal Fantasy Land.

Herbert Deiss has to plan to do business in the actual world.

Getting upper class and upper middle class folks in these countries to buy PHEV with large AER and getting said customers to plug-in would be a huge win.

No one can tell the future with certainty but I am pretty sure Herbert is right here.

Microgrids are still more likely developing countries than a conventional grid.

If Herbert has mentioned that he is targeting upper middle class folks in those countries, some may prefer a 2-3 year Merc or BMW rather than a new VW. So if they migrate to making EVs for Europe, China and America. Are they still going to continue to make ICE models for these countries?

Herbert might have a plan, but he needs to world to play ball with his plan, the world can make up it's own mind.

I am sure he has done the best possible research, I'm equally sure the past is a very, very, poor predictor of the future at this point in time.

 

[MC3OZ]

In terms of how quickly things can change this is relevant:-
Australia's main grid reaches 50 per cent renewables for first time | RenewEconomy

This is the first time, I will not be the last time, it is only a matter of time before this is routine...

And Telsa is well positioned being in an expanding market for Solar and Storage, worldwide, that has decades to run...

 

[StealthP3D]

Interesting. I maintain that Apple is the number one threat for Tesla. Not VW, not Mercedes, not GM or F. If they have indeed dropped out, that is welcome news!

If Apple has dropped plans to release their own EV, and I believe they have, much like Dyson, it was not because they were the number one threat to Tesla, it was because they realized that not only didn't they threaten Tesla, they couldn't even compete!

I wished they had some magic dust up their sleeve that would allow them to contribute to the electrification of transport but they realized they were so far behind, it simply wasn't a viable plan to begin with. The only thing welcome about this news is that they won't be publically humiliated.

 

[LN1_Casey]

This is super untrue for Model S owners. The depreciation is insane. Used buyers are getting the cars dirt cheap

As I've been stalking the used market quite heavily, I will say to disagree. A lot of P100DL's are being sold in the 90k market, even if they're 2 years old. As a new P100DL is 110k not factoring incentives, or docking/taxes, that's still absurdly high in the market. Admittedly, the Model S P100DL use to sell for the 140k's, but it's not so much as the market being flooded with the cars as the fact that Tesla dropped their price on them significantly since.

Even a 2012 P85+ can reasonably be found for around $40k, but still, that's a lot of money for a used car that old. In comparison, I purchased a new 2014 VW beetle, and that car is now sitting at about $10k, down from I think it was $42k. So, 25% of retail value in 5 years vs. 25% of value in 7 years.

I event think the model 3 has lowered the price of used S's, since why pay 50k-60k for a 7 year old car with none of the fun features you can get for a brand new one? So the price has dropped more with the production of the 3, but there is still a lot of demand for these older cars to keep them at their current prices.

 

[StealthP3D]

In terms of how quickly things can change this is relevant:-
Australia's main grid reaches 50 per cent renewables for first time | RenewEconomy

This is the first time, I will not be the last time, it is only a matter of time before this is routine...

And Telsa is well positioned being in an expanding market for Solar and Storage, worldwide, that has decades to run...

Informative article. But i didn't understand this:

The share of renewables might have been bigger were it not for four out of five solar farms in Victoria being constrained to 50 per cent of their output, along with the Broken Hill solar farm, and another Tailem Bend, was switched off due to low prices.

I can understand switching off solar if the price went negative, but doesn't "low prices" indicate the electricity was worth something? Also, assuming the price went to zero and yet almost 50% of the electricity was still being produced by burning fossil fuels, doesn't that imply they were getting zero as well? Or perhaps they have contracts that require minimum payment for all production up to a specified amount 24/7? If so, it would seem more batteries would be economically advantageous.

I think the grid could be a lot greener with stronger time of use billing schedules. This would encourage water heaters with timers, EV charging during peak solar production and other adaptations which would reduce the baseload supplied by fossil fuels. But something tells me monied interests have their hands in the pie fouling up the way it should logically work.