Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

Elon is pretty stubborn though and loves the design of his Cybertruck: he was only open to a more boring truck form factor if the Cybertruck doesn't sell.

Do you think maybe that Tesla will reveal the boring truck first, which will confuse the Honda out of people, then go 'one more thing' for the Cyberpunk one? Certainly make it an interesting reveal.

 

[Fact Checking]

Are you sure? Any talk of selling (or even suspicion thereof), and @StealthP3D is immediately on scene to issue a diatribe.

Firstly, you either have a fertile imagination or are overly sensitive to unresolved disagreement, there's plenty of prominent members who regularly announce when they are reducing their stakes:

Deleveraged yesterday in advance of earnings.

Yeah, I'll take that too I did a bit of deleveraging at $335 today (well... it started out around $335... even higher, really... but it had dropped to $332-$333 by the end). Plan to do a bit more around $342-ish (want some stability over $340). I've been rolling up/forward June $340-$420 call spreads (to Sep. $380-$450 spreads) and taking profits in the form of more shares. Next deleveraging stop after that will be when my June $360-$420 spreads are NTM.

I have one sold PUT spread I need to buy back. I'm waiting for the SP to level out and IV to drop.

@neroden too was often announcing his trades, and he was very much playing volatility.

Secondly, @StealthP3D is I believe genuinely sharing his life experience that made him a multi-millionaire:

The biggest mistake newbies make (and also many experienced investors) when holding a good stock is to sell it too early. I've made most of my money by holding good stocks through some incredible run-ups (and not selling a single share). When I look at the math I cringe at how much I would have "lost" by selling a portion of the shares on the rise. Remember, you bought the stock (presumably) because the bigger picture, the longer term, was compelling, don't dilute your returns by selling right when everyone starts to want in. It's a rare individual who can time the peaks and valleys well enough to make it worthwhile. There is nothing worse than selling half of your shares and then watch the share price climb for the sky.

Buy-and-hold is a solid strategy - and it's IMHO pretty much the only viable strategy if you have a full time job and aren't spending 100% of your time on your investments. Trying to time the market with a volatile and unpredictable stock like Tesla has frequently ended in tears in the past.

I also agree with @StealthP3D that TSLA could break out into four digit valuation in the next 1-3 years, and missing out a big move just because you were trying to capture a $20 swing can be very counterproductive. If you can stand the volatility and are long term bullish on Tesla and don't need the money i.e. can assume the risk of losses, then now is probably the time to sit still. (Disclaimer: I'm frequently wrong and this is not advice. )

If he is feeling strongly about that strategy it's perfectly within his rights. You can ignore all that, and if anyone goes overboard you can report them - attacks against members are not tolerated by the mods. For the record I always enjoyed reading your market timing thoughts of leveraging/deleveraging decisions you made, please post more of that.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Wild prediction: Tesla unveils two trucks: the cybertruck and a regular looking pickup, both made on the same platform. Elon has eluded to the possibility of a more normal looking truck for people who don't like the cybertruck. This would be a severe shock to Ford and GM.

Even wilder possibility: they will announce cybertruck, regular pickup, panel van, people carrier and camper all based on the same platform. Where the platform consists of: battery, drive train, electrics, sensors, electronics, software, FSD. But not mechanics, stampings, moldings.

 

[samppa]

Got a lot of cheers from a bunch of 5-6yr olds, when I was taking my son to kindergarten this morning
Kids affection for Tesla seems to have increased lately. Feeling good about my investment.

 

[StealthP3D]

I just watched the best Model 3 "review" that I've ever seen! It's actually an interview but it captures the Model 3 ownership experience in a way no other video has for me. Because the owner is an Uber driver, he has given rides to thousands of people who have never even ridden in a Tesla before. So his conversations with the general public have given him a unique perspective that I would consider required watching for any investor. It would also be a good video to send to any "Tesla curious" people you might know. I found Model 3 owner Jim S. to be very credible. It's on Tesla Raj's Youtube channel and it features Jim S. (LR RWD named Dauntless w/68,000 miles).

 

[Antares Nebula]

Firstly, you either have a fertile imagination or are overly sensitive to unresolved disagreement, there's plenty of prominent members who regularly announce when they are reducing their stakes:





@neroden too was often announcing his trades, and he was very much playing volatility.

Secondly, @StealthP3D is I believe genuinely sharing his life experience that made him a multi-millionaire:



Buy-and-hold is a solid strategy - and it's IMHO pretty much the only viable strategy if you have a full time job and aren't spending 100% of your time on your investments. Trying to time the market with a volatile and unpredictable stock like Tesla has frequently ended in tears in the past.

I also agree with @StealthP3D that TSLA could break out into four digit valuation in the next 1-3 years, and missing out a big move just because you were trying to capture a $20 swing can be very counterproductive. If you can stand the volatility and are long term bullish on Tesla and don't need the money i.e. can assume the risk of losses, then now is probably the time to sit still. (Disclaimer: I'm frequently wrong and this is not advice. )

If he is feeling strongly about that strategy it's perfectly within his rights. You can ignore all that, and if anyone goes overboard you can report them - attacks against members are not tolerated by the mods. For the record I always enjoyed reading your market timing thoughts of leveraging/deleveraging decisions you made, please post more of that.

You completely skirted the issue I raised, while citing things that talk around the problem. I don't disagree with buy and hold or that Tesla can be 1000 in a couple of years and eventually 3000-6000. In fact, I'm a big fan of both those ideas. What does any of that have to do with my comment?

 

[avoigt]

Maybe Fred took on-board some of the criticism he was getting because I see a dramatic improvement in the quality of the articles at Electrek. In fact I'm not ashamed to say that I've started proactively visiting the site again.

So far Fred still blocks many balanced supporter of Tesla's mission on Twitter and I call myself to be one of them.

Most people here knowing me for a while now and will confirm that I am not known for insulting or unfair judgements of others which includes Elektrek and Fred.

As an improvement of Elektrek I would see Fred unblocking people on Twitter as its a move as meaningful as the short block list that brought many of them into an echo chamber they pay the price for these days. How can Fred do a proper reporting while blocking information?

Looking at Ihor yesterdays analysys I am struck that shorts even increase their engagement while lots of positive news is known to be released in the next weeks and months. I don't know how to describe it but its not what I call a result out of an educated analysis simply because they seem not to have all information available.

Shorting works only if you can convince weak bulls to sell. All argumentations for Tesla to fail have been debunked over the years and although they may be creative to invent new, right now we see technical trader and institutions gaining interest and thats a battle even a hedge fund cannot win.

Swimming in a river against the current has never been a good idea...

 

[avoigt]

Seen that?

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[StealthP3D]

Even wilder possibility: they will announce cybertruck, regular pickup, panel van, people carrier and camper all based on the same platform. Where the platform consists of: battery, drive train, electrics, sensors, electronics, software, FSD. But not mechanics, stampings, moldings.

Well, that would be quite an amazing ramp-up. I would be all for it if I thought it was feasible. But I think it underestimates the resources required to ramp 5 vehicles even if they do share the platform. I was thinking simply bringing two pick-ups to market at the same time would be stretching it.

 

[Fact Checking]

Got a lot of cheers from a bunch of 5-6yr olds, when I was taking my son to kindergarten this morning
Kids affection for Tesla seems to have increased lately. Feeling good about my investment.

Giving a truthful answer to the "Daddy, which is the fastest car?" question creates a new Tesla fan every single time.

 

[Causalien]

US fraud prosecutors demand Ford Focus, Fiesta documents

Uh oh, looks like Ford knowingly sold 2 MILLION cars with defective transmissions which are impossible to fix. Ford could be facing an absolutely massive class action suit, plus action by the DOJ.

The thing about tesla is that you can be assured that it should be relatively free of corporate schenaningans like these because it has be focusing solely on survival by innovation. Whereas it seems like every car manufacturers out there is committing some type of scams. Which makes sense because they cannot imagine a car company not pulling any scams. So they pay journalists to accuse tesla.

 

[Fact Checking]

Nobody cares about "loyalty" - this isn't a tribe or a cult - many prominent TMC members are buying and selling TSLA shares as they see fit - but please don't spam this forum with mostly pointless rehashes of the same topic again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again and again - please start your own thread for heaven's sake.

Are you sure? Any talk of selling (or even suspicion thereof), and @StealthP3D is immediately on scene to issue a diatribe. And my comment was specifically in response to his latest diatribe accusing me of having sold my position.

Firstly, you either have a fertile imagination or are overly sensitive to unresolved disagreement, there's plenty of prominent members who regularly announce when they are reducing their stakes:

You completely skirted the issue I raised, while citing things that talk around the problem. I don't disagree with buy and hold or that Tesla can be 1000 in a couple of years and eventually 3000-6000. In fact, I'm a big fan of both those ideas. What does any of that have to do with my comment?

Let me be more blunt. This claim you made is simply false:

Are you sure? Any talk of selling (or even suspicion thereof), and @StealthP3D is immediately on scene to issue a diatribe. And my comment was specifically in response to his latest diatribe accusing me of having sold my position.

... and I quoted several examples of prominent members announcing actual reduction of their Tesla stake (i.e. selling) and no, @StealthP3D was not on the scene "to issue a diatribe". How are those direct citations not countering your false statement head on?

In fact I consider your comments a borderline ad hominem attack against @StealthP3D. Put up or shut up.

Personally I think your spamming of this forum with pomology was only adding noise after the first 2-3 comments, while @StealthP3D's comments about the merits of buy-and-hold were adding signal in most cases, BYMMV - not everyone feels equally strongly about the totality of topics here.

 

[CorneliusXX]

It seems to me that many topics are taboo here. Don't talk about service. Don't talk about S,X refresh/redesign. Don't talk about Apple. Are we to only smile, pat each other on the back, and make fun of shorts all day? Again, I say, if we cannot have critical discussion about Tesla at TMC, where else are we to have it? Certainly not with all the trolls and FUD on Seeking Alpha and Twitter. We need to better distinguish between trolling and critical discussions.

They're only taboo on this thread because they have been so thoroughly discussed in the past. However if new information comes to light then we can continue the conversation. Start a new thread If you want to rehash old topics with no new info.

 

[SPadival]

Fred Alert.

2020 Tesla Model 3 beats Hyundai IONIQ to become most efficient EV produced

Seth alert actually. Not written by FUD Lambert.

Are we to only smile, pat each other on the back, and make fun of shorts all day?

Yes.

 

[Pezpunk]

Got a lot of cheers from a bunch of 5-6yr olds, when I was taking my son to kindergarten this morning
Kids affection for Tesla seems to have increased lately. Feeling good about my investment.

kids go completely bananas for my car. crossing the street, riding their bikes, every group points and hollers. if there's some loitering when i go into the supermarket, they always compliment me as i walk by. i'm telling you, for the next ten years, every first-time car buyer is going to be saving up for a Tesla if at all possible.

adults, on the other hand, are insanely skeptical. vast majority don't believe it's for them. They think owning a Tesla would would mean lots of risk, compromise, and inconvenience, no matter how many times i explain it's very much the opposite.

adults are dumb.

 

[Mike Smith]

Got a lot of cheers from a bunch of 5-6yr olds, when I was taking my son to kindergarten this morning
Kids affection for Tesla seems to have increased lately. Feeling good about my investment.

The market wildly undervalues the Tesla brand. I say it's worth at minimum $15 billion.

 

[StealthP3D]

kids go completely bananas for my car. crossing the street, riding their bikes, every group points and hollers. if there's some loitering when i go into the supermarket, they always compliment me as i walk by. i'm telling you, for the next ten years, every first-time car buyer is going to be saving up for a Tesla if at all possible.

adults, on the other hand, are insanely skeptical. vast majority don't believe it's for them. They think owning a Tesla would would mean lots of risk, compromise, and inconvenience, no matter how many times i explain it's very much the opposite.

adults are dumb.

The video I posted about 30 minutes ago might get through to this type of person. Model 3 owner Jim S. is a long-time performance car and track guy and the way he explains his experience over 68,000 miles might resonate. He actually likes the Model 3 more after 68,000 miles than he did when in the throes of the new car ownership honeymoon. How many people can honestly say that about their ICE car?

And how the heck do you put 68,000 miles on a car between July 2018 and October 2019?

 

[StealthP3D]

The market wildly undervalues the Tesla brand. I say it's worth at minimum $15 billion.

I've heard the Trump brand is valued by the owner at around $4.1 billion so maybe the Tesla brand is closer to a trillion?

 

[Fact Checking]

t seems to me that many topics are taboo here. Don't talk about service. Don't talk about S,X refresh/redesign. Don't talk about Apple.

That's nonsense - I just did a quick keyword search of the Investors' thread using the TMC search tool:

• Model S/X refresh is mentioned in over 400 comments this year alone. Obviously a frequent topic.
  
• Apple buyout/takeover of Tesla or project Titan is mentioned in over 50 comments this year - and in the same number of comments are Warren Buffett or Tim Cook mentioned. Since there's very little known about it (so there's very little to discuss really) I was surprised it was mentioned so often.
  
• Some variant of service issues is mentioned in over 100 comments this year alone, despite there being dedicated threads for them.

Are we to only smile, pat each other on the back, and make fun of shorts all day?

No, no and yes.

For the record, I had numerous bullish but off topic comments deleted for talking too much about the pickup truck, Boring Tunnels full of Tesla vehicles or the fabulous SpaceX rocket company that took a Tesla to space. So stop the conspiracy theories...

 

[Antares Nebula]

Let me be more blunt. This claim you made is simply false:



... and I quoted several examples of prominent members announcing actual reduction of their Tesla stake (i.e. selling) and no, @StealthP3D was not on the scene "to issue a diatribe". How are those direct citations not countering your false statement head on?

You're flat out wrong. He's obviously not responding to every sell comment (the ones you cherry picked), but he has criticized many. I don't have access to his profile page, otherwise I would look through it for the comments. But I believe just this week, someone (maybe cherrywine or unpilot, can't remember who exactly) posted about a trade they did with less than 1% of their account, and @StealthP3D was quick to issue criticism. It is at least the third time I've seen him do that in the last few weeks.

And then look at his comment about me (below). This is the second time he's made such a comment to me (and I've seen him make similar mocking comments to others). So not only did I not sell shares, but he is suggesting that I did because of comments I made on Apple. He's not even dispensing his buy and hold advice, which you praised him for (and which I agree with). In fact, he's not dispensing any advice from his successful investing career of being a millionaire, as you're so fond to point out. No. He's simply attacking and making fun of me. Unbelievable that you think I'm attacking him! I'm merely defending myself. I've never made this personal, even with all the disagrees; I tried to be cordial and polite. But for some reason @StealthP3D wishes to attack me, and you say I should lighten up and stop attacking him?! That is simply incredible.

Moreover, it seems to me that you're attacking me in your comment. I'm sure you'll say that I should lighten up. But if I criticize anyone, then I'm the one doing the attacking, right?

As much as I think the "fruit" subject has received about 40 times as much attention here as it deserves, maybe Antares keeps nagging on this due to some recent trauma he's experienced. It looks to me like he might have sold a bunch of Tesla shares, hoping to buy them back for less, but the share price zoomed away on him and now he's kicking himself. Perhaps we should go easy on him and have a little compassion. Because this didn't get really bad until TSLA price shot up recently.