Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TradingInvest]

Interesting possibility. I can see unveiling the two variants at same time. I don't think there would be anything to prevent ramping production on the new truck line with just one of them and then ramp up the other on same line or a second one. One thing for sure,
it would guarantee they would be selling tons of pickup trucks in a few years, regardless of how the split turns out.

Tesla probably has two variants based on the same platform (Cybertruck and regular pickup truck), plus a few more planned all based on this platform (mini van, large SUV, mini bus, utility van, etc.).

I think they will only show the Cybertruck variant in this event. They may not have the space to produce both simultaneously. Showing both will reduce demand for the Cybertruck. It's guaranteed to have some cool features, maybe an easy way to load heavy material. I hope it will fit 4X8 sheets (extend under the back seats), also an optional cover.

The Cybertruck will have a lot of advertisement value once it's on the street. Everyone will ask what is that?

 

[Nocturnal]

Tesla probably has two variants based on the same platform (Cybertruck and regular pickup truck), plus a few more planned all based on this platform (mini van, large SUV, mini bus, utility van, etc.).

I think they will only show the Cybertruck variant in this event. They may not have the space to produce both simultaneously. Showing both will reduce demand for the Cybertruck. It's guaranteed to have some cool features, maybe an easy way to load heavy material. I hope it will fit 4X8 sheets (extend under the back seats), also an optional cover.

The Cybertruck will have a lot of advertisement value once it's on the street. Everyone will ask what is that?

Showing the Cybertruck, and then showing a "regular" truck on the same platform that will be built later one, would be a good surprise right?

Heck. Why not show a van variant on the same platform as well. Really show how easily the platform scales (assuming it does).

 

[TrendTrader007]

@TrendTrader007 , @Papafox , @neroden , I've been trying to figure out some guidelines for minimizing risk/reward on options positions, and I was thinking you guys with more experience might be able to help.

First off, apologies to Papafox for borrowing your thread for this. And second, TT007, I can't believe you managed to dress up as Einhorn in short shorts for Halloween while carrying such massive cahones. My compliments on your conviction. I hope you're right.

So here's the basic question: How did you pick your call strike price at $690, 7.5 months out? Where do you see the SP at that point?
The thing I'm having trouble with, is when you're that far out of the money its practically free, with a terrible spread, and to buy, say the $590 or the $640 doesnt cost that much more. And if you end up in the green on 690 at expiration, then you'd end up with $100 more on 590, on just a few less contracts, given the same investment -- and a lot less risk. So how do you calculate the best option?

I guess an important piece of info on that is: what's your play? Are you expecting short term spike (2.5 months as you say) and then sell the calls and recover a lot of the time value on the option, or are you holding till expiry because the spread is so bad?

I’m really not a sophisticated options trader and my approach trading options is to basically buy whatever I fancy based on what I think the stock is going to do. So I’m basically a seat of the pants kind of a trader but I must say in my defense if I’m being honest is I have yet to lose big money on a permanent basis. There have been numerous times in my trading career spanning 21 years that I have lost millions of dollars but I have never failed to make it back even Once - knock on wood (there is always a first time I know)
The most important thing that I look at while selecting my call options is to place the bulk of my trade-in capital in call options which are out of money when I buy tempered with a very high probability of becoming in money before expiration. For example a few months ago I put all my tax free money in Tesla call options With the strike price of $250 when does stock was trading in low 200 range that money has more than doubled already
My biggest position is Tesla calls expiring in June 2021 with $250 a strike price and Tesla calls expiring in January 2021 with $400 strike price

I speculate with a very little portion of my income and way out of money calls like January 20 $700 strike price, June 20 $690 calls etc. With the understanding that I’m willing to lose all of my money that I put in this

 

[StealthP3D]

I've tried to buy this three times, but it won't ship to an FPO address, unfortunately.

I thought you were saving up for a "real" Tesla. Did you give up?

Just to elaborate, I want one of those too. But not bad enough to by one. To put it into perspective, $250 is 74% of a whole TSLA share!

I imagine Tesla has 50% margins on the models so buying one of those supports Tesla and your own desires at the same time!

 

[thx1139]

Showing the Cybertruck, and then showing a "regular" truck on the same platform that will be built later one, would be a good surprise right?

Heck. Why not show a van variant on the same platform as well. Really show how easily the platform scales (assuming it does).

What would the difference be between the Cybertruck and "Regular" truck.

I was thinking they could show 2 different sizes. I would think they would all be so called Cybertruck.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I thought you were saving up for a "real" Tesla. Did you give up?

Just to elaborate, I want one of those too. But not bad enough to by one. To put it into perspective, $250 is 74% of a whole TSLA share!

I imagine Tesla has 50% margins on the models so buying one of those supports Tesla and your own desires at the same time!

I am saving for one; that's why I'm not getting the Model S die cast, since I'll want it to match the real one, haha. I am very, very certain that I won't be able to afford a 2020 Roadster in the time it'll take me to get back State-side (or, like, in the next 10 years), so this is the really only way for me to own one ;-). I'll stick it on my desk at work.

 

[Paracelsus]

Tire Balls!

Thanks for posting that @JRP3 - I wonder if I can put those in my KTM 990 Adventure? (I do always bring a spare tube, but.......)

Before onboard air compressors became common I had a flat tire on my spare tire (my 2nd flat on that trip) deep in the Valdez Creek Mine area of Unit 13 off the Denali Highway in Alaska. The most dangerous place to live in Alaska IMO is either behind a road sign or in an abandoned vehicle since everyone seems to shoot at them, so I had to figure out a way to fix the spare 33" on my Blazer. I ended up ripping out the guts of my tire pressure gauge in my tool box and then using a section of emission control hose to connect the empty pressure gauge to my air conditioner pump. I took the shrade valve out of my air conditioner charge line, connected the hose to the air conditioner, and then started the engine and turned on the air conditioner and filled my tire after it was plugged. It certainly wasn't ideal, but it got us the hell out of there, saved me from a 50 mile hike, and it probably saved my truck from being used for target practice while I wasn't around.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Even wilder possibility: they will announce cybertruck, regular pickup, panel van, people carrier and camper all based on the same platform. Where the platform consists of: battery, drive train, electrics, sensors, electronics, software, FSD. But not mechanics, stampings, moldings.

Lol, its so nice too be care-free and indulge the heart in flights of fancy.

Elon said recently that 'there is no point in increasing production complexity until they have a sufficient supply of batteries'.

You need to parse that. That statement has production planning consequences.

Tesla is BATTERY CONSTRAINED. There will be no product proliferation until they start pumping out 'G-Cubes' to provide the batteries to go with all those new models.

That's why there's a backlog now. Next inline for battery supply is Model Y. Then Semi. Then Plaid S/X/R2 are getting bigger batteries. Then Cybertruck with what, 200+ kwh?

That's the product pipeline we know about right now, as of Nov 2019. Then there's the
'Model 2' compact car Elon mused outloud about 18 mths ago at the June 2018 AGM...

TD;dr tame your possibles for Nov 21, 2019. Its the battery supply.

 

[EVNow]

Elon's actually offering to help the guy (and I thought it was last year the shorty-shorts got sent??), I wonder what David has said about Elon and Tesla:

CNBC: David Einhorn calls Elon Musk's Tesla promises 'a lot of horse---t'

Yahoo: David Einhorn: Elon Musk Should Step Down

MarketWatch: Einhorn sees shades of Lehman in Tesla, says Musk knows deception is catching up to him

MarketScreener: David Einhorn's Greenlight says Tesla 'on the brink' of failure

So, yeah, Dave, suck it up!

Important thing is - SP doesn't care a bit about this. All the market wants to do today is to keep the SP around $335. Apparently today, that's the magic figure.

 

[Mike Ambler]

While trees burning unicorns is fun, this is funner:

This Q is now officially in the lead for best-ever in the NL+NO+SP trifecta.
View attachment 474495

...20k?

 

[Tslynk67]

EU 'should drop oil, gas and coal funding'

The joint statement from ministers requested that the EIB and other international financing organisations like the World Bank should "phase out financing of fossil fuel projects, in particular those using solid fossil fuels, taking into account the sustainable development, and energy needs, including energy security, of partner countries".

 

[Prunesquallor]

Reuters :
Siemens CEO deplores admiration for 'pot smoker' after his deputy praised Tesla

“Siemens (SIEGn.DE) Chief Executive Joe Kaeser on Friday lamented Germans who fail to recognize true visionaries and instead admire pot smokers who talk about space travel, only days after his own deputy praised Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk."

“Amusing opinions in our country: When a German chief executive proactively orients his company toward the future, he is regarded as “lofty” and “philosophical”. When a pot smoking colleague in the United States talks about Peterchen’s moon ride, he is an admired visionary,” Kaeser tweeted, referring to a German’s children’s story about traveling in space.

 

[StealthP3D]

Given the comments on it being like an APC, I’m thinking the truck has a built-in camper shell kind of thing(probably on a motorized hinge a la falcon doors so it can open fully when parked). Would also solve the problem of aerodynamics with the bed. If I’m right, that would work fine instead of the van.

I think you're right about it having an enclosed bed (at least as an option). Probably not falcon-wing after the complexities encountered on the Model X. Elon said the truck will make use of titanium. I'm thinking a titanium roll-top. Because this will allow the bed cover to follow the aero-curve of the top of the vehicle. If so, it will definitely be motorized.

 

[lklundin]

Indeed. When is the brand of a car ever included in the headline for news of a crash? When does a news article about a two-way crash repeatedly mention the brand of one car and never the other? It appears that Tesla alone is considered fair game for relaxation of journalistic standards.

I take it as the media's tacit understanding that a Tesla is much more than merely a "car".

 

[Tslynk67]

Important thing is - SP doesn't care a bit about this. All the market wants to do today is to keep the SP around $335. Apparently today, that's the magic figure.

MM's trying to push it down to Max Pain (stated at $320, but I suspect more likely $325), but the shoes being snapped-up!

Yes, I don't think the larked cares any more - they see Tesla making profits now, increasing deliveries, opening factories, who cares about a few short lunatics?

 

[SteveG3]

MM's trying to push it down to Max Pain (stated at $320, but I suspect more likely $325), but the shoes being snapped-up!

Yes, I don't think the larked cares any more - they see Tesla making profits now, increasing deliveries, opening factories, who cares about a few short lunatics?

well, they are very snazzy shoes ; )

 

[EVNow]

MM's trying to push it down to Max Pain (stated at $320, but I suspect more likely $325), but the shoes being snapped-up!

MMs don't care. They delta hedge.

People who don't hedge - ironically called Hedged Funds - are likely the ones doing the pushing around. Could also be the result of people closing/rolling their call/put positions.

 

[ggr]

Thanks for explaining, thats helpful.

So if I understand correctly you deleted my mail anticipating it may lead to Fred bashing like predictive crime prevention.

Irony aside I agree that should not waste time & brain capacity on a topic thats not worth it.

Yes. And I just had to move two more posts out of here to that other thread... aarrgghh.

 

[StealthP3D]

Actually, the guy seemed kind of sketchy to me!

As a lifelong "car guy" and one of the most experienced Model 3 drivers in the entire world, I found his ownership perspectives very credible. Especially since my own experience over the last 18 months confirmed just about everything he shared.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Is there a word for someone who holds onto their short position too long? Like bagholder, but the opposite?

Yeah loser