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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Other long-timers: am I correct in thinking there has not been this level of positive press about Tesla since early days (2011-mid-2013)?[/QUOTE]
Yep
The fundamentals continue to support the Plan.
Yep
The fundamentals continue to support the Plan.
Mark Spigel having an absolute meltdown on Twitter, its such a treat to watch
Not all shorts are idiotic like Einhorn and those bashers on Twitter. Some short funds are doing their own research. They hire companies to take EVs apart to compare them. They talk to EV owners to find out what customers really think. They are also calculating what the margin would be when Model 3 and Y are produced in China.
Initially these guys got fooled by Spiegel, Chanos, Einhorn, etc. Now they found out demand is not drying up, people really love Tesla cars. Those Tesla killers they waited for only sell a tinny percentage compared with Model 3, even though those manufactures have been giving out large discounts and shouldering losses on EVs. They are also surprised how fast Tesla improves the cars.
Those guys are watching TMC closely. They know Tesla has a good chance to join S&P 500 index. Some short funds are quietly getting out. I heard this from some shorts. One guy talked about how they communicate through private messages. The ones that stay short are mad at those funds that are leaving.
Everything shorts predicted about Tesla turned out to be wrong. Shorts bought huge amount of out of money Puts expiring in the next few months, they fully expected TSLA to be bellow $100 by now, but it didn't happen. Now they have a hard time to do much to save their Puts. They realize Tesla will not suddenly bankrupt. So buying out of money Puts is not so attractive anymore. But shorting shares has risk of short squeeze.
Professionals understand Tesla is likely to go higher before Cybertruck unveil. So nobody is willing to short a lot to take the risk. Now their hope is macro quickly sink, so that might drag down Tesla. they also hope autopilot gets banned. They write to the regulators. After Truck unveil, we get very close to the end of Q4, they know it's going to be a strong quarter. There is not much incentives to short Tesla during a strong quarter, or right before it joins S&P. After joining S&P, they can't short immediately, because they could get killed by the large index funds which are obligated to keep buying. By the time index purchase settles down, strong Q3 and Q4 will come. During this whole time, they also have to worry about the release of FSD features. Essentially in the next whole year there is no good time to short TSLA. Trading maybe ok, short and stay short is not a smart move. Many funds now understand this reality.
Business is never a sure thing, I think it's smart to always stay cautious. Watch how many Q4 orders get pushed to next Q1, that's the most important leading indicator for next Q1's performance.
Initially these guys got fooled by Spiegel, Chanos, Einhorn, etc. Now they found out demand is not drying up, people really love Tesla cars. Those Tesla killers they waited for only sell a tinny percentage compared with Model 3, even though those manufactures have been giving out large discounts and shouldering losses on EVs. They are also surprised how fast Tesla improves the cars.
Those guys are watching TMC closely. They know Tesla has a good chance to join S&P 500 index. Some short funds are quietly getting out. I heard this from some shorts. One guy talked about how they communicate through private messages. The ones that stay short are mad at those funds that are leaving.
Everything shorts predicted about Tesla turned out to be wrong. Shorts bought huge amount of out of money Puts expiring in the next few months, they fully expected TSLA to be bellow $100 by now, but it didn't happen. Now they have a hard time to do much to save their Puts. They realize Tesla will not suddenly bankrupt. So buying out of money Puts is not so attractive anymore. But shorting shares has risk of short squeeze.
Professionals understand Tesla is likely to go higher before Cybertruck unveil. So nobody is willing to short a lot to take the risk. Now their hope is macro quickly sink, so that might drag down Tesla. they also hope autopilot gets banned. They write to the regulators. After Truck unveil, we get very close to the end of Q4, they know it's going to be a strong quarter. There is not much incentives to short Tesla during a strong quarter, or right before it joins S&P. After joining S&P, they can't short immediately, because they could get killed by the large index funds which are obligated to keep buying. By the time index purchase settles down, strong Q3 and Q4 will come. During this whole time, they also have to worry about the release of FSD features. Essentially in the next whole year there is no good time to short TSLA. Trading maybe ok, short and stay short is not a smart move. Many funds now understand this reality.
Business is never a sure thing, I think it's smart to always stay cautious. Watch how many Q4 orders get pushed to next Q1, that's the most important leading indicator for next Q1's performance.
The Accountant
Active Member
From his Stanphyl Capital Sept 2019 Letter:
- For September 2019, the fund was down approximately 2.5%
- We remain short stock and call options in Tesla, Inc.
His fund was down 2.5% in Sept when TSLA shares ended the month at $240.87.
I don't believe he has published his October letter....with TSLA ending October at $314.92...I'm guessing his fund had huge losses.
Now November is at $337 - and the bleeding continues.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
You guys talking about engine displacement reminded me of an old rule of thumb that was etched in stone:
There's no replacement for displacement.
So, what's the displacement of a P100D?
Ok. Well...
Who's volunteering to catch the Plaid prototype when it's taking a break at the Ring and see what's underneath?
Gali is probably wrong here, at least in the timescale and definitely on the glass battery being being in the Roadster and Semi.
I think we will find that Tesla has multiple strands of battery sourcing, production, development and R&D.
If the glass battery is anywhere on the list it is in R&D, and well after Maxwell. The Dahn 2017 research is probably ahead of Maxwell and who knows how many strands there are, or when they will appear in production vehicles.
No need to Tesla to put all their eggs in one basket... but a good idea to keep tabs on all new interesting battery developments.
This also show why it is a good idea for Tesla to maintain relationships will all major battery suppliers, if there ever is a major break-though that Tesla doesn't own, most probably one of the major suppliers owns it.
Here's an overall very positive article about the economics of EVs in fleets. The Tesloop fleet is featured, while also pointing out that Model 3 longterm costs are expected to be even lower.
Electric cars are changing the cost of driving
Electric cars are changing the cost of driving
Ok. Well...
Who's volunteering to catch the Plaid prototype when it's taking a break at the Ring and see what's underneath?
To be 100% sure, they would need to hang on for one lap
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
That's OK. He would claim it was a fraud if he *did* see a $5B pile of cash.
Maybe all the employees can be seen playing poker, throwing dice, etc. until Einhorn and Musk walk in and they quickly scramble to their stations and look busy.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Historically naive, that's rich. The plant was not built for Silevo. Construction did not start until three months after SolarCity bought Silevo in June 2014. The original Silevo design was very different, and much smaller with a 475 job target. SolarCity upsized the design, and the cost to taxpayers, sixfold.
SCTY's purchase of Silevo did not increase the factory's value, since there was no factory at the time. Tesla's purchase of SCTY did increase the value significantly, of course, since SCTY probably would have abandoned the plant in bankruptcy.
Carmakers go through a long development process. It's not uncommon to build a hundred or so engineering/integration cars a year or more before starting series production. These test cars are built with production tooling, but not on the full assembly line. They later build several hundred manufacturing validation cars on the full production line and test those cars for six months or so before series production.
You guys talking about engine displacement reminded me of an old rule of thumb that was etched in stone:
There's no replacement for displacement.
So, what's the displacement of a P100D?
Aaannnd - it's the weekend!
"There's no replacement for displacement"
Is what they used to swear by.
Those now rely on grandma's basement
To live...and EVer rue ICE thereby.
I, for one, hope that it stays up. Then there will be a citable statistic showing Tesla deaths (driver + passenger) dropping per vehicle miles. I'm pretty sure that conclusion can already be drawn now!
As long as they don't pull a Keefe and fabricate their own data, it should all play out fine.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, if you own a Brush but don't know what year it is, saw the axle in half and count the rings...
Cheers!
You guys talking about engine displacement reminded me of an old rule of thumb that was etched in stone:
There's no replacement for displacement.
So, what's the displacement of a P100D?
Well now, actually there is:
“The only replacement for cubic inches is cubic dollars.”
Which of course referred to the money Porsche was putting into Turbocharging technology at the time.
Edit: I just realized the irony in this with the Taycan “Turbo” and the money they’ve spent, but the victories are not coming the way they used to...
Mike Smith
Active Member
And he had no chance to even trim his short call position. His parents are going to be so pissed
All of the ICE vehicles gonna be displaced!You guys talking about engine displacement reminded me of an old rule of thumb that was etched in stone:
There's no replacement for displacement.
So, what's the displacement of a P100D?
The only problem with that is the old axiom "Garbage in, gospel out"...
He is meaningless, stop giving him attention is my suggestion.
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