Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Boomer19]

great information.
i’m not following a couple things tho.

Many of these market makers likely loan their long shares to shorts so they may not disclose ownership anywhere close to their real economic ownership of stock.

this i dont understand. just because a long (margin or cash-segged) loans their shares doesn’t mean that they’re “off the books”

i’m thinking in terms of the rights of the shareholder.
scenario 1 - proxy vote - i loan my long shred out as of record date, i dont get a vote. but i still ‘own’ the shares.

2- my shares are lent as a cash merger goes effective.
i still get the cash proceeds. because i own the shares in the end.

what am i missing?

The short borrowed a share from one long, promised to give it back eventually, then sold it to a new long. Two different long investors now have economic ownership of the same share so in effect the share has been duplicated, with a virtual share or repayment obligation now also trading in the market.

sounds like fractional reserve banking, but not quite following when it comes to the shares.

i’m short 1 share of tesla. in us market i either must borrow shares from a long
- broker using excess shares it’s customers bought on margin
- customer who paid cash but participating in fully paid lending

or expect to be ‘bought in’ which essentially punts my short sale to another short seller or a long closing 1 long share.

in either scenario, the short share is offset by a long share

thanks!

 

[MP3Mike]

Word on the Street is that Mark has a terrible case of writer's block.

Nah, it must be that the copy/paste keys are broke on his keyboard.

 

[printf42]

Why not 3 ?

Does that also mean Y production volume in US will be lower than previously thought ? Already we know they will make Y in GF3 too.

I think we should start thinking about Y production being on 3 continents from get go - may be 4k/wk in US, 3k/wk in China and 3k/wk in EU.

Because Y would be a better Robotaxi than 3. Yes I mean it. At that time I doubt Tesla will still continue to make 3, maybe only 3P at a premium for those really want sedans.

 

[Singuy]

I still think the truck is gonna fall flat, but battery day could take us past $500. So many things will be humming by then and the reality of a million mile quick charging pack will knock people for a loop.

I think any news nowadays will fall flat. There will be a rally going into the Truck event because longs and robinhood kids are making that FOMO play but most likely going to hit some overbought situation which cause a sell the news kind of event. Next catalyst will be Q4 earnings with all eyes on Solar roof scalability.

Even if Elon announces "we just hit 100k reservations on our cybertruck" wouldn't mean a thing because the "analysts" will just say "Tesla will have a demand problem because they will have 100k less people buying the Model 3".

Solar roof is another stream of revenue that 100% does not cannibalize any auto products but in fact help SELL additional auto products. Shorts and the folks on CNBC will continue talking about demand issues every time they see "slowing growth" or a dip in deliveries...seasonal or not.

 

[Unpilot]

Stanphyl Capital Letter - September 2019 | Seeking Alpha

I'll give him one thing, he makes great lists. /s

4.Elon Musk is a securities fraud-committing pathological liar.

This in a letter full of lies...the man is a sick sad miserable excuse for a human being.

 

[SteveG3]

Why not 3 ?

Does that also mean Y production volume in US will be lower than previously thought ? Already we know they will make Y in GF3 too.

I think we should start thinking about Y production being on 3 continents from get go - may be 4k/wk in US, 3k/wk in China and 3k/wk in EU.

Noticed that too... here's what my thinking on it,



Y has better margins than the 3.

Y is thought to have larger total demand than the 3 globally.

3 already has capacity for 350k units at Fremont, soon to add 150k at GF Shanghai. 500k is a number Elon has thrown out many times as far as global Model 3 demand... sometimes as the low end, sometimes, the high end, or just simply one rough figure.

They can start with Y at GF Berlin for Europe+, and when Model 3 demand crushes the 500k estimate on word of mouth washing out FUD, they can add 3 production.

I like this approach.

 

[AudubonB]

That sounds great - there's top level support for renewables [and hence EVs], and the SPD minister who prepared the deal during the previous administration is staying on to shepherd it through [meaning the SPD is all in too].

Quote .. / Die neue Kenia-Koalition will, wie Woidke bei der Vorstellung des Koalitionsvertrages angekündigt hatte, Brandenburg zum Vorreiter für die Energiewende in Deutschland machen. / ... Unquote ["Kenia" denoting the joint colors of the coalition members: green, red, black]

Excellent!

Difficult writing today - no nternet, only iPhone signal - but our great friend from northernmost Germany has been warning us recently as follows....and I think it revealing to hear from others On The Scene of their view of the following:

“The German urban consumer is mentally ready for e-vehicles. The general population is not. The infrastructure absolutely not ready. Germans want no coal plants, no nuclear but also no wind farms. Electricity is just supposed to magically appear... ”

He has expounded esp on that last point more eloquently; here I am just copying a text from him.
He also is from northernmost Germany (North Sea coast) and, while wanting to get an EV, he tells me NGermany has not enough charge sites.

 

[AZRI11]

Could "Bertel Schmitt" come out of retirement to work for Tesla

He looks pretty good, why not

 

[nativewolf]

I still think the truck is gonna fall flat, but battery day could take us past $500. So many things will be humming by then and the reality of a million mile quick charging pack will knock people for a loop.

I think the truck could be explosive in terms of profit and sales. The average pickup truck price in the US is very high compared to other classes. A leather interior pickup is 50+. So, buyers are not experiencing any sticker shock looking at a $60k tesla. Should allow higher margins. Also, there has been nothing new on the truck side for years except for the AL frame and bed Ford did and it took them a decade to do that. I guess the diesel powerplants have shown some innovation but if I could ditch my diesel f350 I would in a heartbeat. Give me strong axles, a good frame, and ability to tow 15k pounds and I'm in. Could be such a great tow vehicle.

I think lots of urban redneck types will lay down the coin for a $60k-$80k truck, a different sort of buyer than a roadster buyer but a huge market.

 

[SteveG3]

It was a very encouraging and positive moment. Diess clearly recognizes that the future is electric and that the best path is to transition as quickly as possible. He is trying to pull that most difficult of magic tricks -- convincing all of his shareholders, directors, employees, suppliers and customers that despite the short term pain it is better to welcome the future and move quickly.

I'll show my age but Diess embracing Elon and Tesla reminds me of the 1970s/1980s when Toyota and Honda embarrassed US car manufacturers with vastly better quality. In response to the shock (and hit to the bottom line) US manufacturing companies embraced Deming and 3-sigma manufacturing (precurser to 6-sigma). That didn't mean they would partner with Toyota (although GM did in a small way) but that they recognized that the world had changed and that they had to make fundamental changes in how they went about their business, because sticking to the status quo would be a disaster.

Bottom line: I don't think Diess' positive comments about Elon and Tesla means VW and Tesla will do business together (although it's possible that could happen in a small way), but rather that Diess wants VW and all of its stakeholders to embrace Elon's vision and move as swiftly as possible toward EVs. It's no different than a 1970s/1980s auto exec acknowledging that Toyota and Honda were doing some things right, and signaling that it was time to follow that path rather than stick to the old ways.

Either way it seems like a strong positive for Tesla and the mission of accelerating the transition to sustainable transportation. I really enjoyed watching it.

If I'm not mistaken, the word for that moment with Musk and Diess is "cinematic."

A small gathering of people present for a tangential purpose, when a brief interaction emphatically communicates that a threshold has been crossed changing the direction of a basic aspect of the material lives of people around the world.

The way Elon and Herbert Diess interacted on that stage in Germany was literally like watching the capitulation of the passing of automotive leadership to the technology developed in Silicon Valley.

 

[HG Wells]

Are we expecting additional info on the gigafactory in the next day or so ?

IE: What deal did Tesla get ?

 

[Mike Smith]

I think the VW ID3 will offer Tesla Autopilot and FSD.

- ID3 is in a lower market segment than Model 3 or Y so they won't compete much
- Will Make Tesla an absolute fortune in both initial sales and ongoing Tesla network sales percentage
- Will help establish Tesla FSD as the standard self driving technology
- Musk told Ron Baron that everything will come together in Summer 2020, which happens to be when ID3 is released
- Musk and Herbert Dies were very chummy on stage

Tesla can't make cars fast enough to satisfy the oncoming demand tsunami for EVs so there's absolutely no reason not to license their software to other companies. All the software revenue will be near 100% gross margin, and Tesla can use data from VW's fleet to help train their neural networks. I think most VW customers would opt in to this to help make their cars better.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

Elon hopes for a lot of things and I hope to lose 20 pounds before Christmas. What's your point? It ain't happenin'. In 2020 they are going to sell the model Y (with mostly model 3 parts) at a price higher than the model 3. That's not a trend toward a $21,000 car by 2021.

I will bet you the margins will keep increasing and they will be

25k is the number I believe-- let's not get a rumor started
Elon Musk: Tesla could produce a $25,000 car in around 3 years

My point is the more they make of these cars the cheaper they will get to make. There is ZERO point in lowering the price of the car if DEMAND keeps being greater than SUPPLY.

 

[S3XY]

I think the VW ID3 will offer Tesla Autopilot and FSD.

- ID3 is in a lower market segment than Model 3 or Y so they won't compete much
- Will Make Tesla an absolute fortune in both initial sales and ongoing Tesla network sales percentage
- Will help establish Tesla FSD as the standard self driving technology
- Musk told Ron Baron that everything will come together in Summer 2020, which happens to be when ID3 is released
- Musk and Herbert Dies were very chummy on stage

Tesla can't make cars fast enough to satisfy the oncoming demand tsunami for EVs so there's absolutely no reason not to license their software to other companies. All the software revenue will be near 100% gross margin, and Tesla can use data from VW's fleet to help train their neural networks. I think most VW customers would opt in to this to help make their cars better.

Noooooo! Tesla cannot give away the goose that is going to lay the Golden Egg!

 

[SteveG3]

Are we expecting additional info on the gigafactory in the next day or so ?

IE: What deal did Tesla get ?

I think that's quite likely

 

[RFernatt]

If I'm not mistaken, the word for that moment with Musk and Diess is "cinematic."

Given the recent Twitter mutual admiration, I'd add Bromance.

 

[StealthP3D]

Why would this happen if GF3 is valued at 0 and is about to start pumping out cars, but GF4 is at least 2 years away?

The only way I see this happening (TSLA to $700 by next week) is if there's a mother of a short-squeeze and/or mind-blowing news.

It's like saying truck reveal will have any impact. Hello Y?

I didn't see that @anthonyj attributed his prediction to the truck reveal. Did I miss something?

 

[Singuy]

I think the truck could be explosive in terms of profit and sales. The average pickup truck price in the US is very high compared to other classes. A leather interior pickup is 50+. So, buyers are not experiencing any sticker shock looking at a $60k tesla. Should allow higher margins. Also, there has been nothing new on the truck side for years except for the AL frame and bed Ford did and it took them a decade to do that. I guess the diesel powerplants have shown some innovation but if I could ditch my diesel f350 I would in a heartbeat. Give me strong axles, a good frame, and ability to tow 15k pounds and I'm in. Could be such a great tow vehicle.

I think lots of urban redneck types will lay down the coin for a $60k-$80k truck, a different sort of buyer than a roadster buyer but a huge market.

I feel like the Truck is over engineered and would have trouble hitting volume production like the Model X. Desire and demand will be there, deliveries will suffer is my guess for a good while.

But I do know Elon always ask himself the question of "can this be mass produced easily?". He even said this about neurolink needing to be a simple installation like Lasik. But my little brain can't wrap around a "futuristic APC that will blow my mind" while being also simple enough to mass produce easily.

 

[MartinAustin]

Why not 3 ?

Does that also mean Y production volume in US will be lower than previously thought ? Already we know they will make Y in GF3 too.

I think we should start thinking about Y production being on 3 continents from get go - may be 4k/wk in US, 3k/wk in China and 3k/wk in EU.

Elon has said that Tesla expects the Model Y to outsell S+X+3 combined. Therefore... you need to be making it in as many places as possible

 

[Mike Smith]

Noooooo! Tesla cannot give away the goose that is going to lay the Golden Egg!

It's not giving anything away. It's a near 100% margin product plus service. Whatever they can do to get it to as many customers as possible, they should do.