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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
As Electric currents flow,
So shall our stock grow,
GF1, GF3, GF4, and more,
Elon's companies are sometimes a bore,
Despite Shortie Shorts always spreading FUD,
We know our TSLA is not a dud.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
What doesn't make sense?
Germany "sharing the cost of Eurozone bailouts" is like the United States sharing the cost of Western defense.
If German profits made from Southern Europe are returned as foreign aid/gifts to Southern Europe what is the point of profit? Germans are making cars for Southern Europe at cost as a public service for Europe?
She persuaded her parents to buy an EV but to only use it when necessary. Given Tesla’s market share I would presume they own a Tesla, though I’m not sure I’ve seen it reported specifically.
It gets tougher in 2021 but applies in 2020.
Reducing CO2 emissions from passenger cars - Climate Action - European Commission
Just a small observation on “no longer a growth company” Tesla.
Two months ago Tesla were producing vehicles at just 1 factory. In 18 months time they aim to be producing vehicles at 4 factories.
This is not just a huge growth in capacity, revenue and gross profit. It is a huge amount more operating leverage of their largely fixed SG&A, R&D and interest costs.
It is also a huge reduction in force majeure risk as now revenue is no longer dependent on a single location.
Two months ago Tesla were producing vehicles at just 1 factory. In 18 months time they aim to be producing vehicles at 4 factories.
This is not just a huge growth in capacity, revenue and gross profit. It is a huge amount more operating leverage of their largely fixed SG&A, R&D and interest costs.
It is also a huge reduction in force majeure risk as now revenue is no longer dependent on a single location.
Germany has too many Frankfurts.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
It's pretty easy. Exhaust system below the car. Mufflers, tailpipes and catalytic converters are big air blocks.
Sorry. This is too simplistic and one-sided. That is; "...This makes no sense."
We must look at the history, beginning with the precursor of the EU:
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:11951K:EN:PDF
We can go off-topic quite quickly, but this history is immediately relevant to Tesla.
First, locating in Brandenburg is a stroke of genius, especially since, as some have already commented, skilled workers can commute from Poland to augment the industry-specific expertise lacking in Brandenburg today. Second retrenchment by Daimler and others will make acquisition of engineers facilitated.
Second, The combination of GF-3 and GF-4 give Tesla much easier export access to most global export markets.
Third, most vehicle finance in Europe is via domestic financing in local markets, not German funding. With exceptions EU countries have very well developed local financing with the transnational consumer vehicle financing quite internationalized. Direct funding sources tend to be consumer savings with large pools of insurance and retirement plans, both public and private. (If anyone needs details they are readily available but boring to almost everyone.)
Fourth and most importantly, production in Germany and China allows easy access to most world markets without the volatility of US sourcing.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
As your previous sat image shows, its 300 hectares of replanted forrest. I guarantee the Germans did not harvest the old growth trees and then plant a whole replacement stand of trees without first checking for buried ordinance. Likely ~30 yrs ago too, based on the size of those trees.
Cheers!
To add some color and, not skepticism, but rather a pragmatic-check to what@jbcarioca just wrote, can we learn where it is in Poland the auto industry has been concentrated?
Although I am sure the “commute” distances are not prohibitive, I also suspect we’ll find they aren’t specifically bundled right at the border crossing points that happen to be the very closest to Berlin.
Although I am sure the “commute” distances are not prohibitive, I also suspect we’ll find they aren’t specifically bundled right at the border crossing points that happen to be the very closest to Berlin.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
What I meant were the macroeconomic flows from 2000 to 2010: the flow of about ~1 trillion Euros (read: 1,000 billion Euros) of funds from the "north" the the "south", in part a gigantic property bubble, in part by increasing debt in the south.
I.e. in a very simplified and imprecise form: Greece and Spain was taking on government and private debt and was buying German cars from it, which reduced local competitiveness. EU rules were specifically designed to allow the unrestricted flow of funds from the north to the south - so there was nothing the south could do to protect their local industries.
Germany nudge-nudge-wink accepted Greece into the EU, despite their obviously doctored balance sheet, in part because they wanted the market expansion.
Acting surprised and insisting on 'austerity' once the partying is over and there's a giant hangover, while having benefited greatly from the near-illegal sales of booze, is an obviously one-sided view ...
Put differently: "auto profits" are tainted goods, they were boosted by a decade of binge-buying by the south.
I believe only three Tesla vehicle factories are publicly announced as roadster and semi production remain in development with no announced location? But of course it seems like Fremont will be bursting at the seams after the Model Y goes live so a fourth vehicle producing factory certainly makes sense and in the Q3 update presentation they were listed under a generic 'US' location (along with the pickup truck).
SoGA Fan Club
Member
I was thinking the same thing about that comment he made. I couldn't quite figure out how to articulate my thoughts as well as you have.
It is amazing that he thinks Tesla is supposed to increase revenue daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly - hell, minutely to meet his requirement to be a growth company (at least for Tesla). When you're building and selling all the cars you are able to, the growth has to come through building more factories and more models - both of which Tesla is doing at break-neck speed. Will it always happen daily, weekly, or quarterly? NO!!
(NOTE: This next part actually AMAZED me after I typed it because I didn't know how accurate Elon's prediction on this truly was - I thought it was just "close")
The growth of the company reminds me of when Elon said the range of Tesla cars would increase by about 5% per year. Then around the end of 2016, the 100D was introduced and the range increased to 335 miles. Then there was a lull for a couple of years. I remember thinking in 2018 and 2019, where's the 5% per year? Tesla better get on the ball. Then of course in 2019, we've had 2 range increases. Now watch this and be amazed.
Here is the yearly range from 2012 for the Model S given Musk's prediction of a 5% average yearly range increase.
2012 - 265
2013 - 278
2014 - 292
2015 - 306
2016 - 322
2017 - 338
2018 - 355
2019 - 373
Now, go to Tesla's website and look at the current range estimate for the Model S (I'll give you a hint if you don't already know or don't feel like looking - it's a number between 372 and 374
).
I’ll try to find time this weekend (remote consulting gig this week) to dust off the model and rerun with the new FCA emission numbers (worse) and the possible effects of the merger.
The only thing the model will tell us is FCA's 2020/21 through 2024 penalty reduction as a function of EU ZEVs in the pooled fleet (from what we saw earlier this year, the numbers were grim for FCA to eliminate all penalties). What I don’t have insight into is 1) the number of in-house EU ZEVs FCA/PSA thinks they are going to sell (their current sales are minuscule), 2) the fraction of the penalty reduction FCA plans to pay Tesla in exchange for joining the pool. We can all play those games a posteriori when we know the penalty reduction value per ZEV.
@generalenthu performed some similar calculations and pointed out some potential issues with my methodology (since corrected), so his input would be valued.
I think what was implied was that FactChecking is really more than one person. (I also thing it is a team of people.) If not, please FactChecking - would you mind sharing some (non-identifying) info about yourself - I am amazed and intrigued to know more!
Yes the odds of Tesla Semi production at Fremont seem extremely low. Tesla says Semi will be in production by late 2020. Hence a new location. Very likely at GF1 as it will be very hard to build anywhere else so quickly. I guess Lathrop is possible too.
Pickup is less clear, there is a higher chance this could be at a 5th location, but I would still on balance guess it will be made at GF1. It’s possible Tesla aim for Pickup to be in production within 18 months too. We should hear soon enough. So production at 5 locations within 18 months isn’t out of the question either.
I hope Tesla has maintained flexibility to add further OEMs to their emission pool at short notice (or saved European car sales to add to a different pool) .
By the end of 2020 Daimler are going to realise their EV sales are nowhere near enough to get them out of their huge EU emissions black hole.
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