Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

While I see the sarcasm...
California just has to say that stealerships are dangerous to the costumers and to prevent a stearlship monopoly they are banning them in their state. The manufacturers are free to sell their cars directly. They can provide the evidence of how a faulty ignition switch killed people and the stealerships did nothing to correct the problem.

But who will take care of all the recalls?

 

[Singuy]

The /r/wallstreetbets sub is indeed super crazy, but they are also incredibly funny, and they don't take themselves too seriously. The sub's "Like 4chan found a Bloomberg terminal" description is spot on.

TSLAQ members on the other hand are perpetually angry, self-righteous, malicious and only ever funny without intending to.

In WSB discussions TSLAQ comments are routinely and deservedly ridiculed.

Compared to TSLAQ, WSB is an island of reason.

Amen to that. Guh

 

[PeterJA]

It would be cool if your theory war correct. Would explain some of Elon's excitement for this vehicle.

Airless tires have been in R&D for a while.

Maybe Elon's statement that Cybertruck will be "literally bulletproof" applies to the tires too.

 

[KarenRei]

Maybe Elon's statement that Cybertruck will be "literally bulletproof" applies to the tires too.

Wasn't that the Roadster's COPVs that were "literally bulletproof"?

 

[jerry33]

But who will take care of all the recalls?

Out of state stealerships will have mobile service.

 

[Cherry Wine]

That's somewhat shy of my SpaceX valuation target. Too bad its private, hmm?

Space miners race to an asteroid worth quintillions | bigthink.com (2019)

Cheers!

More context since I was curious: total wealth worldwide is $360T.

The total amount of global wealth grew in 2019 to a total of $360 trillion, according to the Global Wealth Report published Monday from the Credit Suisse Research Institute.

 

[anthonyj]

Nothing wrong with Tesla service imo. They always treat me well. Still on track for $700ish next week

 

[tinm]

Nothing wrong with Tesla service imo. They always treat me well. Still on track for $700ish next week

Exhibit A right here.

 

[jhm]

I've met people who think a "real" millionaire needs to have annual income of over a million dollars.

It's true that today most "millionaires", as defined by total net worth, are not what we used to think of as "millionaires". You could be a 40-year-old policeman, have a modest 3 bedroom house in San Fran or NYC, a bank account of $60,000, a 401K of $140,000 and technically be a millionaire.

I think it's unlikely any TMC members made a billion dollars last year and so I was just clarifying what I meant.

If you retire with $1 million, that's about $40k in annual income. This is fairly middle class.

 

[StealthP3D]

If you retire with $1 million, that's about $40k in annual income. This is a fairly middle class.

That's basically right at the poverty line in a number of areas. $40K annual income, that is. This year, not in 15 or 20 years! And you had better pray you are able to continue growing the principal while making those $40K withdrawals because, you know, inflation.

 

[mongo]

If you retire with $1 million, that's about $40k in annual income. This is a fairly middle class.

With a retirement age of 65, a life expectancy of 90, that gives a retirement period of 25 years.

$40k is a constant draw rate with 0 gains.
At 4% return, you can pull $40k a year indefinitely.
At 7% return, you can pull $70k a year forever.
Or, also at 7%, you can pull $84k a year and hit 0 at the end of the 25 years.
10% gets you $108k a year till 90.

Ignoring any social security.

Edit: having your house paid off before retirement helps on the expense side.

 

[Intl Professor]

Could be added to the Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit thread I think, it's a great summary.

Been there, done by my friends.Iike her posts a lot.

 

[jhm]

With a retirement age of 65, a life expectancy of 90, that gives a retirement period of 25 years.

$40k is a constant draw rate with 0 gains.
At 4% return, you can pull $40k a year indefinitely.
At 7% return, you can pull $70k a year forever.
Or, also at 7%, you can pull $84k a year and hit 0 at the end of the 25 years.
10% gets you $108k a year till 90.

Ignoring any social security.

Edit: having your house paid off before retirement helps on the expense side.

Investing for a higher rate means being exposed to market risk. Investing at a lower rate is more inflation risk. So personally I am more inclined to target 8% rate of return while drawing just 4% a year. This allows the portfolio to grow a bit to keep ahead of inflation while being able to tolerate a bear market.

I'm still 10 or more years from retirement. So I'm still willing to take a big bet on Tesla. But getting closer to retirement I'm inclined to get more conservative in my investment style.

 

[jerry33]

You can't promote the current S.

I wouldn't call them finicky. They did replace the originals early on, but that was proactive--they never actually had a problem. Since then they have serviced two. So two minor services in the 100K miles after the originals were replaced isn't really significant. And I imagine, though I don't know for sure, that they have improved the parts so there should be even fewer services in the future. (Don't have an X, so I can't comment on that).

 

[jhm]

Sounds like, the root of the problem is that Tesla cannot open service centers in the state, so they are overwhelmed with the few rangers they have and the communications fail too. Maybe the solution is for existing and potential Tesla owners in the state to raise their voice to the state and demand change of policy to allow Tesla to open service centers.

Spoiler: for conspiracy theorists

Maybe this situation is designed to fail to force a change in state policy, i.e. Tesla has the position, as long as they have enough demand world-wide they can't even satisfy, why bother with states that deliberately try to prevent them doing business.

Maybe this helps.

How to Make Economies of Scale Work for You

So Tesla is presently disadvantage politically. It does not yet have the scale to shape the policy environment. But as it presses on to larger scale it can sway more of the politics. For now it's a matter of picking one's battles.

 

[tinm]

Sounds like, the root of the problem is that Tesla cannot open service centers in the state, so they are overwhelmed with the few rangers they have and the communications fail too. Maybe the solution is for existing and potential Tesla owners in the state to raise their voice to the state and demand change of policy to allow Tesla to open service centers.

What a brilliant idea, why didn’t I think of that?

[Oh that’s right, I did. Founded the Tesla Owners Club of New Mexico in 2015 with one purpose: organize owners all over the state to pressure Tesla and the legislature and the franchise dealers to change the unfair law. We have fought in every legislative session ever since and will in 2020 as well. We’ve grown to 367 members.]

 

[jbcarioca]

But what about the Norwegian Fjord dealers??

Actually there was only one manufacturer/designer, Slartibartfast. According to the implications of his story, like Tesla, he had no dealers., unless Zaphod Beeblebrox could be considered a dealer while he was President of the Galaxy.

 

[EVNow]

With a retirement age of 65, a life expectancy of 90, that gives a retirement period of 25 years.

$40k is a constant draw rate with 0 gains.
At 4% return, you can pull $40k a year indefinitely.
At 7% return, you can pull $70k a year forever.
Or, also at 7%, you can pull $84k a year and hit 0 at the end of the 25 years.
10% gets you $108k a year till 90.

Ignoring any social security.

Edit: having your house paid off before retirement helps on the expense side.

Checkout firecalc. It can tell you safe withdrawal rates using back testing using market returns over the last century.

FIRECalc: A different kind of retirement calculator

For eg., with 40k withdrawal, $1M in investment would result in failure in 5% of cases.

Your spending in every year after the first year will be adjusted for inflation, so the spending power is preserved.​

FIRECalc looked at the 119 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.

Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 119 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-400,986 to $5,679,475, with an average at the end of $1,867,416. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)

For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 6 cycles failed, for a success rate of 95.0%.
​

ps : Checkout r/FinancialIndependence on reddit. Its a community interested in FIRE. BTW, according to FIRECalc - if you want 200k income, you need $6M for retirement. That would be west coast "middle class" income.

 

[jbcarioca]

There are even fewer billionaires outside US - and in places like China (which has a lot) I doubt the billionaires would register in an obscure website to get Tesla info. They have specialized wealth management firms do the investing. Infact most people with a substantial investment (in millions) have wealth managements firms...

This is generally misleading and often incorrect. Fir inherited wealth, sure. Self made types very often have attorneys, accountants and some even are clients of Prime brokers. Few self made ones delegate their wealth management to outsiders. Of course the only ones I actually know about for sure are ones I have met professionally or otherwise. The majority of those are not US residents.

 

[Dreadnought]

Let's start at the beginning...

When someone on this forum demonstrates empathy for fellow humans or states his admiration for the incredible achievements by Tesla, driven through its visionary, charismatic one-of-a-kind leader, I don't hesitate to rate the post "love" and usually leave it at that. But here, a rating is clearly not adequately appreciating your effort. @KarenRei, the easiest response would have been "look it up yourself on the interwebs". It takes a tiny bit more effort to post a few handful of links from bookmarks or Google results. Instead, you elected to write up a comprehensive 101 on options trading.

It is this kind of information that makes the thread valuable to many. More importantly, it's this kind of attitude that makes it invaluable. Helping each other, be it through shared wisdom or humour or sometimes just a few kind words during rough times is what sets us apart from the TSLAQ scum who only care about themselves. I have never been more confident about Tesla's success than nowadays and while this is all but guaranteed, I know for sure that the fine people on this forum are on the right side of history and karma. Those haters that block each other and have no higher goal than seeing someone else fail to make their own poor lives seem less miserable are an embarrassment to humanity. It is good to have regular confirmation that this species can do better.

Thank you, Karen and many others who make this forum a safe haven of sanity and kindness!