You are moving the goalposts here. Be careful with that. You may score an own goal.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
You are moving the goalposts here. Be careful with that. You may score an own goal.
How would that work though? The more success tesla has, the more expensive it would be for elon to acquire the required control. In this hypothetical scenario, he'd benefit more from lowering Tesla's valuation initially in order to make buying the required shares cheaper.
So, my entire post was about the lack of a "threat" or "blackmail" from Elon, despite the way the media keeps presenting it. With regard to your question -- Elon made an off-hand mention of one way to increase his percent ownership, if needed, in the far future. I noted that, and provided a brief explanation. That is all.
But, you are asking how it "would" work -- effectively asking for some certainty in prediction. Obviously, nobody can do that for a hypothetical, far-future event. Of course there are many reasons it might not work, but there are also many hypotheticals that *could* make it work.
Think of it as an exercise in imagination: Can you imagine a future scenario in which Tesla could be successful enough to have lots of cash on hand, but the stock price could be irrationally low?
That seems like an easy one...so let's keep imagining! Maybe in that same future, Elon feels like his then-current percent ownership is not quite where he wants it to be to control and guide the careful development/deployment of risky technology.
Now, if we put those two hypothetical imaginings together -- can you imagine that maybe, just maybe, Tesla could buy-back enough of those depressed shares to effectively increase Elon's ownership percentage, and nudge his voting control up to where he will feel more comfortable?
You seem to like the idea of Elon "lowering Tesla's valuation initially", so that is one hypothetical...but I think we've all seen over the years many different reasons (or lack thereof) for irrational drops and sustained depression of Tesla's valuation. Combine any of those with lots of cash-on-hand, and the company can effectively buy back shares to increase everybody (including Elon's) percent ownership. If, in this future, Elon is already close-ish to his desired threshold, it seems reasonable to imagine Tesla could decide to do this to get over that hurdle.
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cliff harris
Member
Mach Es and Jaguars? Alfa Romeos? How many combined? is it a million? is it even 100,000? Heck, is it even 10,000 cars? Its a trivial effort in comparison to Teslas moat of video data.
And I really think the 'Tesla having trouble launching autopilot on CT' comment may not age well. There is no indication that they are having 'trouble', they are just being sure they have enough data, something we know is just a matter of time.
There are industries where being small and nimble is an advantage, and also industries where its absolutely futile. Show me the successful social media company with less that a billion in investment. AI is that on steroids. You need a staggering amount of data and compute, or you cannot compete. You can however, make some great pitches to naïve investors looking for 'the next tesla'. Thats why neither Rivian or Lucid are actually bankrupt yet.
Wayve.ai may have some secret sauce that will help them catch up. They would need to have some breakthrough technology that nobody else has thought of.
My impression is that Wayve is saying to investors, "We are doing end to end. We know how to do what Tesla is doing." And this is probably true.
But they will need to raise an unbelievable amount of capital just to have hopes of partnering with an OEM and getting where Tesla is within 5 years.
It's not impossible. It's just unlikely without that secret sauce.
Hardcore legal team settles another case. Per the Musk standard, the case must have been just.
At the moment we don't know if a secret sauce is even possible.
Right now we know for sure that self-driving is partially possible in two ways: the way Waymo does, with conditions and geofences and lidar and HD maps and the occasional remote takeover, and the way Tesla does, with billions of miles of driven data and NNs.
Both have limitations, and need in different ways *billions* of dollars capital.
This is the status quo.
A third, cheaper way has not been found yet.
lol whatever. Not sure why you would say that just because someone disagrees with you. You act as if there isn’t a very large faction of investors who will vote no, and plenty of institutional consultants advising a no vote. If the package was anywhere close to sane it wouldn’t be an issue at all - might as well say he gets the whole world if Tesla market cap goes up a certain amount. There was no need to make it $50+ billion, so completely out of whack with any CEO comp plan in the history of business, and he is part time AND threatening to become even more part time. But - troll. Whatever.
He 10Xd the value of the business. It doesn't matter what your minority opinion is. The majority of investors voted for it. There are not a large faction of voters who will vote no. There is an outsized faction of Teslaq bears posting in here because that is what the mods have decided they want.
And I didn't even call you out. I see people responding to a whole host of ignored accounts. If you feel like you're a troll and were attacked, well that's on you bud.
I’m def not a bear - I’ve been a shareholder for a very long time and continue to add to it whenever I can.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I'm seeing BOTH these claims:
Teslas system can be licensed easily to everyone since it's not vehicle specific- they don't need tons of data from the specific model to make it work on it.
AND
The only reason it hasn't launched on Semi or CT is it's vehicle specific and they need a bunch of vehicle specific data to do it (as in lots of footage from the cameras on the vehicle over lots of miles- not just knowing the physical dimensions of the vehicle)
Both can't be true.
The second one seems the best explanation of the lack of FSD on either Tesla vehicle- but it destroys the thesis of the first one.
That doesn't mean it's impossible, or "trouble", but it means they can't just hand out "build this HW into your car and you can run FSD out of the gate Mr. OEM!" kits...they'd instead have to cut the deal, then 2-3 years minimum later the OEMs actually get all the HW on new models, THEN the model-specific data collection begins lasting, if CT is any hint, at least 6 months or more, THEN Tesla tailors FSD to that specific vehicle based on that data and pushes an OTA update to finally enable it for that specific vehicle.
Again, perfectly doable- but not as fast or turnkey as previous narrative here.
How would you feel if your employer suddenly said: "I don't like what you are doing/saying now so we are going to retroactively remove your agreed upon pay for the last 6 years." And they then just reverse all of the ACH payments and take it all back?
Or option 3:
It's not worth the time/effort to cross port 12.4 to Cybertruck when 12.5 is going to be arriving shortly thereafter.
Speaking of... (Auto download warning) https://courts.delaware.gov/Opinions/Download.aspx?id=364630
Anyway, you are correct. It is not apparent that Musk or Tesla have remedied any of the conditions that warranted rescission in the first place, though we will see how the Court rules (if it passes).
The CT has been on the road, with customers, months before any version of FSD V12 was released and 12.4 has "almost completely retrained models" from 12.3. If were just as easy as turning it on, they would have.
I think Knightshade's point is that new vehicles take time to get FSD to work.
Also, Elon tells us the hardest part is validation. Validation takes time on a new platform, but with Cybertruck FSD coming relatively soon, the technical hurdles must not be too bad.
We are talking about less than a year from launch to put FSD on an entirely new vehicle. They must not need that much new data for it.
Hope you have intelligent and accurate balls!
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