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I disagree with a 5% move on Friday.

If I had to guess between the stock going up or down after the reveal, I'd say it will drop. Reveals rarely cause bumps in the stock price now, since this is the third reveal of (4) products that are not yet released (Semi, Roadster 2, Model Y, Cybertruck). Given the delays on the semi and roadster 2 I'm assuming the market reaction to be either "meh, still a long ways off" or "OMG it's hideous! No demand!".

So my final bet is 2,7% down on Friday.

But no, I'm not playing it. Just interested in the buying interest in case of a drop. It will say a lot about the state of the current uptrend.

Exactly what I've been thinking. Stock went down on the Y reveal as well, and all I hear on this thread is how great the Truck will be and how the stock should just take off. Except this is all based on subjective assessment until they're actually out on the roads. Like the Vanna White phenomenon, many will be disappointed in it's looks once revealed. I think it will be about the nose.
 
I disagree with a 5% move on Friday.

If I had to guess between the stock going up or down after the reveal, I'd say it will drop. Reveals rarely cause bumps in the stock price now, since this is the third reveal of (4) products that are not yet released (Semi, Roadster 2, Model Y, Cybertruck). Given the delays on the semi and roadster 2 I'm assuming the market reaction to be either "meh, still a long ways off" or "OMG it's hideous! No demand!".

So my final bet is 2,7% down on Friday.

But no, I'm not playing it. Just interested in the buying interest in case of a drop. It will say a lot about the state of the current uptrend.

This is what I was expecting, but if the CyberTruck really is a good design like with the Model 3 then I think we can expect a sustained upwards trend over the following few months, as people digest it.
 
Exactly what I've been thinking. Stock went down on the Y reveal as well, and all I hear on this thread is how great the Truck will be and how the stock should just take off. Except this is all based on subjective assessment until they're actually out on the roads. Like the Vanna White phenomenon, many will be disappointed in it's looks once revealed. I think it will be about the nose.

Yeah, but MY was "look at the history of Tesla, look at everything we've done and the super shiny stuff. Thanks, bye! Oh, BTW, here's the Model Y, ciao".

I think CYBRTK wll be a LOT of razamataz. It's Elon's pet project and he's going to be gushing all over it (euw!!!)
 
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Great post @Krugerrand and fully agree. When we watched the Mach-E unveil, I couldn't help being reminded of the old Lee Iococca videos taking aim at Ford and others for being incompetent copycats. His message was consistently along the lines of "we even showed them how to do it and they still got it wrong"..........similar to what we just witnessed with Ford copying Tesla as you pointed out...Lee Iococca went on to become the 3rd most trusted person in America, in large part by simply pointing out how things could - and should be done better.
Fast forward 30 years (a timeline within which history often repeats itself), and Elon can now deliver a very similar message to Ford - "we showed them how to build the Model 3 and Model Y and they still got it wrong". And he will soon be able to point out that the best the Tesla Killers can do is something similar to a 2013 Model S............copying the last version of Tesla while Tesla leaps forward with steady improvements on each model and on each year of production. Lee Iococca took a similar shot at Ford and others in this Chrysler minivan commercial many years ago:
If history continues to repeat itself in this comparison, then Elon is on his way to being the at least the 3rd most trusted name in the US. And Tesla will still be the recognized symbol of excellence in EV's 30 years from now for changing the paradigm and then staying out in front of the competition by continuing to improve its product....
¿Paging @Curt Renz - time to update your "Hitler" voiceover, using this Iacocca commercial? That would be epic.
 
Its practically guaranteed that any spike will immediately get hit with a series of sell orders in a methodical way. Sure enough about 5 sell orders spaced out after the buying volume comes in. It never fails lol

Yeah, whacking moles will often work, but it is generally not recommended to try to stop a launching rocket. :rolleyes:

Not advice.
 
Predictions for friday:

I think the cybertruck will look a bit crazy, and a lot of people will go OMG no, and a lot of people (esp teenagers) will go OMG AMAZEBALLS, and tesla will see a massive uptick in awareness, which is probably worth some unholy amount of free advertising.
Also... I think there may be some asides, or mentions, or even reveal of something else. Maybe updated news on the model Y ramp, maybe news on plaid S/X, maybe even some battery related news.

Ideally a tesla semi would drive on stage, musk would drive out the back of it in a model Y, then jump out and start talking about the truck, just to remind people that the semi and the Y actually exist, and are not forgotten. Or maybe guests can be ferried to the event in a fleet of model Y prototypes?

I think the Y reveal was interesting because it was the first time they really clued up to the idea that *we have free eyeballs here...lets remind everybody about our cool AVAILABLE NOW products as we have them looking at us*, which makes a lot of sense.

Stock price...could go anywhere but I suspect flat, or mildly up, but starting to crawl pretty clearly up through December as people realize Q3 was not a blip and Q4 is going to likely be as good, if not better.

FWIW: I have 400 shares on CFDs (5x margin) I'm holding throughout the event, and about 1,000 long term shares I'm not selling for at least another few years.
 
Yeah, whacking moles will often work, but it is generally not recommended to try to stop a launching rocket. :rolleyes:

Not advice.

These sort of shenanigans were a lot more frustrating and effective back in the 200-250 range. Now its just cute to watch how much money has to be used to try and get the same effectiveness at these levels ;)
 
All three packaging type has improved to the point where cooling and so aging is not an issue any more. To be more precise pouch cell has the best geometry for cooling as it is a rectangle prism shape so its thickness can be sized arbitrarily and can have a large cooling surface if needed. Porsche Taycan uses pouch cells from LG chem for example and has no cooling or performance problems. I will show the longevity below. Prismatic cells have no issues as well, BMW i3 from 2014 was able to take 2C charge which Tesla wasn't able to achieve until the Model 3 v3 charging.


Tesla cars aren't the safest on the road, but this isn't the topic now. (look up Mazda 3 on EuroNCAP and compare them)




I don't see everyone else struggling. BMW had no issues with their prismatic desing since 2014 for example. When you say efficiency. Most car makers have efficient batteries. That's not the showstopper. The efficiency of the pouch cells can easily be increased by using thicker copper layers. (the volume of the cylindrical cell would increase faster with thicker copper). Look at the internal resistance of the following batteries: pouch has lower energy density but the internal resistance is 40 times less compared to the cylindrical.The density and internal resistance can be scaled by design inverse proportionally.

View attachment 478601

Source: Accelerated Internal Resistance Measurements of Lithium-Ion Cells to Support Future End-of-Life Strategies for Electric Vehicles





You are refering to consumer electronics.

Automotive pouch/prismatic cells are sealed in a metalic box. There is no such issue.




Battery management is not rocket science. The researchers, or better, the cell testers give characteristic maps to the software developer who runs optimization algorythms to make the best use of the battery. It is the cell testing that has to be done correctly, software is easy.

Economics: Why does the Audi E-tron with ~93kWh battery cost less than the Model X with 100kWh yet is has more features and finer material? I'm not sure there is a big cost advantage to Tesla regarding the battery. VW claims it’s buying a $100 kWh battery. Cylindrical is cheaper to manufacture but not much fun to build the pack. Complicated cooling system.
(BMW i3 has a carbon fibre chassis and a factory with fully renewable energy so that hard to compare to Tesla)


As for energy density Jack Rickard measured 243 Wh/kg for the Model 3 cells. (I don't have the volumetric energy density for the Tesla cell though. If I use 24.25mm^3 for cell volume and 17.3Wh/cell, the volumetric density comes to 713 Wh/L) Compare this to CATL:

CATL’s NCM 523 battery cells (available since 2017):
Prismatic format: 235 Wh/kg and 570 Wh/L
Pouch format: 250 Wh/kg and 530 Wh/L

CATL’s NCM 811 battery cells, since 2019:
Prismatic format: 270 Wh/kg and 660 Wh/L
Pouch format: 300 Wh/kg and 700 Wh/L

CATL achieves 304 Wh/kg in new battery cells - PushEVs

Additionally the cobalt content of the NMC 811 is similar to Tesla's NCA.


One more thing: battery degradation.

Tesla batteries have the cycle life of around 800. NCM usually has much higher cycle life, around 1500.

This article says about Tesla:
"Well, according to lithium-ion battery cells studies, after 500-800 charging cycles and 100,000 to 150.000 miles a battery’s charging capacity drops to around 70%. "

Tesla Batteries Last Forever (Basically)
What is the charge/discharge cycle durability of Tesla's 2170 cells? - Quora

Compare that to CATL's 1800 charge cycle with the capacity drop to 80%:

CATL achieves 304 Wh/kg in new battery cells - PushEVs

You might want to have a chat with the owner of this P85:

upload_2019-11-19_8-13-50.png
 
All the German companies use a totally BS range standard that I'm surprised they are still allowed use. The numbers given for the Mach-E (Which uses VW's MEP) probably have the same problem.

The Tesla model S Plaid using that standard probably has 1000km of range... :confused:

That's why EV's from other manufacturers only compare favorably to Tesla if they haven't been released yet. The next awesome "Tesla Killer" is always "next year" and we are always comparing *claimed* specs of competitors to verified specs of Tesla.