Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[capster]

I thought Musk was at his absolute best in terms of delivery! But I'm thinking we've been punked on the truck! The specs are awesome (and the pricing too good to believe). But this is not the truck we will get. I'm kinda mad at Musk for this.

The flat panels are necessary to get the bulletproof exterior and glass. Also, ignore the demo effect.

The design works well enough within the flat panel constraint. Remember also, good design should be ahead of the general public.

The press will have a field day for a bit (pounding on those bongos like so many chimpanzees). Musk will have the last laugh. I'd say "Bet on it." but I don't give advice.

It'll more than do.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

My prediction for the SP. If the truck reveal tonight shows a more mainstream truck that is well-received by fans and the media, I think we will test the ATH in the very near future. If the truck is truly as cyberpunk or futuristic, or just flat out ugly as heck, we will stay in the $300-$360 range until the Model Y enters production. I simply don't see any other catalyst out there to push us to an ATH since everyone has priced in the China factory spitting out cars THIS year (which will turn into a negative if no cars are delivered in 2019), the yearly deliveries estimate of 360-400k will either be a meet or fall short (with deliveries being stalled from the Shanghia factory, >400k just doesn't seem possible), and I don't think we will have another surprise earnings beat in the next 2 quarters.

I just don't see what else besides the truck reveal that can push us higher until the Y starts production. Hope I'm wrong.

Well, you're in luck!

Because you're wrong!

It makes me wonder why I bother to respond to this kind of nonsense.

Man, I'm feeling like a genius right now - just a dumb ole hick from South Ga though. Just wish I knew EVERYTHING like other people.

 

[Pezpunk]

Color choices or is it metallic only?

stainless steel body complicates the paint process -- metallic is definitely the path of least resistance.

 

[ZachF]

Ok. Let me get this straight. Everyone thinks its ugly but me? I think its ****ing amazing. I placed my order. Shocked at the $39k price. I own a 2WD full size truck now and this thing does everything I need. And now I am going to own a truck that runs on electric, and is safe to drive in Baltimore (unless they have those balls that Franz had, then I am ****ed).

I think the design is a few line changes away from looking great personally...

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Would be crazy for a daily driver, but just think how much fun you could have after work.

 

[mejojo]

What did you order?

Middle level.

Full disclosure, I also put $500 REFUNDABLE deposit on the Ford EV. (I will NOT call it a *ustang)

 

[Sancho]

I think the strategy here is similar to the one they successfully deployed for cars. The Roadster was a very badass car that was super uncomfortable to get in and out of, and appealed to a very niche audience. But the point of the Roadster was to shatter a preconception: that electric cars were slow and unsexy. The Roadster? Boom! Super fast and super sexy. They then followed with mass market cars with fairly traditional styling.

For the truck market, the preconception is that electric vehicles are for latte drinking tree huggers. A real man drives a badass gas guzzler. Electric vehicles are golf carts. The Cybertruck? Boom! It's more badass than anything ever made by anyone other than the military. Specs that blow everything else out of the water. They can follow with a pickup with more traditional styling later as they grow capacity to produce mass market trucks.

The TSLA SP didn't grow much with the Roadster. It was the Model S that took the SP to where it is now. This Cybertruck won't do much for the SP now, but it is setting the stage for future growth.

 

[mrmage]

Don't care for the look, but maybe it will grow on me. But 500 mile range, solid acceleration, and rest of the specs look good enough for a preorder. Except the server keeps crashing.

 

[wipster]

Wonder how it will stand up to keying? I hope it electrocutes the MF!

 

[capster]

that's probably conservative. possibly close to 600 miles. that and the ATV are the only positives i am taking away from this event. the design of the truck is hideous, and the shattered glass was as big a fail as humanly possible, short of that ugly-ass thing catching fire and burning to the ground on stage. the price and specs are great. nobody is going to care.

For the record, I don't disagree lightly, nor very often.

Edit: I am interpreting you as saying "Nobody is going to care about the truck." Did you mean "Nobody is going to care about a mishap in the presentation"?

 

[printf42]

OT:
I didn’t follow very closely who started to steer the “one more thing” expectation for the truck event.
But I would suspect there are trolls trying to setup a disappointment for the event, by pushing unrealistic expectations.

My take is, there is no “one more thing”, no normal looking truck, no panel van, no other derivatives of the same platform.(except concept drawings maybe)

But, one feature could become the highlight of the day, in Elon’s Air Force event speech, he used the phrase “it’s literally bulletproof” to describe the pickup, I think he really means the truck will be bulletproof.
Fireside Chat: Lt Gen Thompson & Elon Musk
We know the semi has bulletproof windshield so Tesla is already researching those glasses. Plus we are almost certain the windshield of pickup span all the way from roof top to front bumper, means it could(or have to) become a structural component, which need to use very strong glass. Btw, it’s perfectly flat, probably the best shape for thick ballistic glass without distorting the view.
For doors and other body panels, they could be fitted with titanium plate similar to the under body panel in Model S, all even directly made of titanium panels(in that case the base color of the truck would be naked titanium, ).

So my “one more thing” is, Tesla will announce the expected Protection Level Rating of the truck, which may not be as good as an APC, but enough to survive a zombie apocalypse.
Even the civilized Model X has the bio defense mode, is it really too much to ask for a bulletproof truck?

This aged relatively well, except it’s naked SpaceX steel instead of titanium.

But the real highlight is the price, 39.9k, wtf, take my money....

 

[FreqFlyer]

Will it be at the LA Auto Show?

 

[Rashomon]

Ordered.
A few points. The 39900 price says a lot about where Tesla thinks the battery price is going to be in two years, because it’s going to take a 90+KWh pack to get the estimated range for the low-end model. They have to be looking at less than $100/kWh at the pack level. No one is anywhere close to that.
Two, Musk is tired of paint shop issues. No paint on this baby. I’m skeptical that stainless will be a net cost saving, because there’s a big material price increase, but the absence of a paint shop will help. But it also means the panel quality has to be very high. This is risky, but hopefully they’ve studied the trade-offs carefully.

 

[larmor]

I guess the internet will be all over this, but traders will likely worry about profitability at this price. Seems too low to be true, can Tesla really expect to make 20+% margins on this beast? My guess is Frankfurt will open at -3%, then go to +0%, then end up at -5%. Then a slow recovery as Robinhood skyrockets.

I would think a minimalist car would have a high margin. At that entry price point for a pickup truck, people are looking for utility and durability, so i would think numbers will be much higher.

 

[Boomer19]

Deliberately limiting demand makes sense to me too. I've long thought they did that with the 3, simply by choosing to make a sedan instead of a hatchback or CUV.

yeah i don’t mean they “cant” as in, aren’t able to...from a capability standpoint

they just have too many balls in the air.

they have to get engagement, and this “halo-type” truck will get early adopters who aren’t target demo for the cars or x or y

of course everyone jumped on the disagree, but that’s TMC

point is, they are still in growth phase and need to focus on the higher demo which is 3 and y

but meanwhile, this was opportunity to do the highly artistic, halo truck

same gameplan as s and x

who doesn’t get that?

the beauty of it is, and what really shows they are getting better at engineering and design, is that they are able to offer this specs at those prices.

2 years ago add 20k to each version

what hasn’t changed is the timeline.

well, they can’t do everything all the time

i’m overall pleased with it.

tempted to get one

media will crush it
eff them, they are pigs

time will tell

the real story here is the capability that their battery tech affords them.
but by the time the minority in media make this known through all the noise, the majors will actually believe their own bullshit, which gives tesla that much more a lead.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It's too bad the truck wasn't on a slowly rotating turntable to see it from different angles and also occasionally hide the broken glass.

 

[mejojo]

This thing is built of steel. You should be able to weld any kind of rack or really anything else to this thing. The aftermarket companies will go wild.

I'm welding a rocketlauncher to mine.

Flamethrower for me....maybe have a guy hanging onto an antenna playing electric guitar.....

 

[davecolene0606]

Law enforcement ordering now...

Fire Away!

 

[jhm]

Commercial refrigerator screws a Prius. Punk grows up angular and mean. Deal with it.

 

[c041v]

That's a bit cultish, don't you think? "If you don't absolutely love everything Tesla does, you're not worthyyyy!!!"

There's definitely a market for this truck. But it will be polarising. No need to hide from it.

Elon warned this would be a polarizing design ages ago, yet some people seem surprised that the design is...polarizing. That aside, if you put the specs next to any competitor, it would be like an adult playing little league. And this truck takes no gas, which is the biggest gripe amongst pickup truck owners.

BTW, this is the TSLA investor forum, so I do generally expect people to be fairly bullish about the company and its efforts. If I was screaming this on a street corner at random people, I’d see your point.