Thanks for the link. I'd seen mention of the 7000, but not the original story. His source was very specific on timeline and, IMHO, wrong. It doesn't line up with Work in Progress Inventory or Panasonic's chart which showed 80k packs at most in Q3. But yeah, I agree there's no basis to assume 7k Q4 packs went to Shanghai.
As
@ReflexFunds mentioned it in a prior discussion, it's consistent with an increase in "raw materials" inventory from $1,096m in Q2 to $1,284m in Q3.
I believe Tesla is accounting battery pack inventory as "raw materials" inventory, which moves into "work in process" when it's mated with a new car - and there's support for this in their 10-K.
The "raw materials" cycle is similarly long on the solar side of Tesla's business, where it's explicitly described that solar panels and other parts produced by Tesla are "component parts" not "work in process":
2018 10-K:
"Finished goods inventory included vehicles in transit to fulfill customer orders, new vehicles available for immediate sale at our retail and service center locations, used vehicles and energy storage products. During the year ended December 31, 2018, we made the decision to utilize some of our fleet cars as service loaners on a long-term basis. As a result, we reclassified $121.2 million of finished goods inventory to property, plant and equipment."
"For solar energy systems, leased and to be leased, we commence transferring component parts from inventory to construction in progress, a component of solar energy systems, leased and to be leased, once a lease contract with a customer has been executed and installation has been initiated. Additional costs incurred on the leased systems, including labor and overhead, are recorded within construction in progress."
I.e. "component parts" are not work in process until assigned to a specific sales contract. It's pretty straightforward to assume that automotive "component parts" are not work in process either, until assigned to a specific new car.
This would be consistent with the treatment of automotive parts, which might be stored for years before used as a warranty or service replacement pack. I.e. "work in process" probably starts with the construction of a new car (when a VIN is assigned to a new car to be produced in Fremont), not with the labor invested in a sub assembly.
I.e. I don't think your argument that the rumored 7,000 battery packs
have to be accounted as "work in process" has any basis.
I do agree with you that the 7,000 packs leak is unreliable, especially in the Q4 context. I find Carsonight's speculation about 3,000 of the 8,000 GF1 battery packs per week going to China unreliable as well.
