Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sparcs]

So what is it going to take to get us back in the 370 range? I'm guessing it won't do much when Q1 earnings come, maybe even drop, but maybe Q2 and/or when Model Y starts taking orders?

Base Model 3 production at $35k would help a lot. It would positively impact sales/deliveries in North America for second half of 2019.

Q1 and Q2 profits would help too as it likely leads to S&P addition later in the year.

Model Y is unlikely to help a lot until 2020 when it's actually in full production. I don't get a sense they have even broken ground at GF1.

 

[MP3Mike]

The only reason to purchase the company rather than just licencing the tech is to stop other from using it.

You could license it exclusively. Or even exclusive for x years. I suspect the reason to buy it is to integrate their R&D people with Tesla's R&D people to come up with even better solutions more quickly.

 

[Starno]

Glovis is coming

 

[JRP3]

I’m curious: less flashy, but what about replacing the 12V lead acid battery with these capacitors? It’s pretty clear their use of it isn’t optimal, and the constant charging/discharging cycles they put them through leads(ha!) to an outsized need to replace them under warranty. Seems like the perfect use for something that can be charged/discharged basically forever without losing capacity(ha again!)

Capacitors typically have a higher self discharge, so vampire loads would increase by keeping the caps charged. Same applies to using them in a traction pack.

If they're no use... then why did Tesla buy Maxwell? Automotive performance for increased roadster 0-60 or something?

Sounds like this is on topic... being an investment by Tesla.

For their electrode technology which can apply to lithium batteries.

For anyone referencing Maxwell's claims about caps and regen braking, that only matters when you have a small battery pack such as a hybrid might have. A large lithium pack can absorb much more energy than a small hybrid pack, or a small capacitor bank.

 

[printf42]

And to all of those people doing that: please take the time to do the math (range, sustained performance, peak performance, cost, weight, and volume) before posting on the topic again. Because right now this forum appears to be split by those who've actually run the numbers on a vehicle using ultracapacitors, and those who haven't. And the people JRP3 is referring to fall into the latter category.

My back-of-envelope calculation is it would take only 0.2kwh to do a 0-60 launch of Model 3.

If we have a super cap of roughly that size on top of the main li-ion pack, it would make every car capable of ludicrous mode regardless of its range. Also it would make city stop-and-go driving even more efficient, to the level of almost identical to constant low speed cruising.

Weight penalty I saw people talking about 10x-20x, if that’s true it’s livable for that small capacity.

Volume penalty could be an issue, but the capacity could be even smaller while still shows benefits.

Only thing I am not certain is cost, is it still prohibitively expensive, even in that small capacity?

Am I missing something here, or did my calculations wrong?

 

[Lessmog]

Glovis is coming

But but I heard that the cake is a lie?
Oh, I thought you meant Portal, not port.

 

[Tslynk67]

Glovis is coming

Indeed, it's literally only around 200kms away from where I'm sitting!

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

So what is it going to take to get us back in the 370 range? I'm guessing it won't do much when Q1 earnings come, maybe even drop, but maybe Q2 and/or when Model Y starts taking orders?

I think we are on the same page. I definitely agree that legacy makers are confused about it. There is 1 car market, not 2.

The push to a new ATH will probably come when we're not expecting it. Too many times have we expected earnings reports to be the catalysator. But it could simply be a general improvement of the investment climate (China deal) in combination with the realisation by more and more investors that Tesla is here to stay and will become a moneymaker.

The path forward for the next 3 years is becoming crystal clear: 2018 was the turnaround year, 2019 will be the consolidation year with slow growth (compared to Q3 and Q4) but a lot of product developments behind the curtains) and 2020-2021 will be the explosive years where Tesla's turnover and stock price skyrocket (Chinese Gigafactory, Model Y, Semi, maybe even Pickup).

 

[Zaxxon]

Indeed, it's literally only around 200kms away from where I'm sitting!

Why are you still sitting?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Glovis is coming

E-Day!
Don't Bet Against Elon on Twitter

 

[Unpilot]

Got a canned response back from the SEC about my letter sent a few weeks ago about market manipulation.

"Thank you for contacting the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding your concerns about Tesla, Canaccord Genuity, and Needham & Company.

The SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy processes many comments from individual investors and others. We keep records of the correspondence we receive in a searchable database that SEC staff may make use of in inspections, examinations, and investigations. In addition, some of the correspondence we receive is referred to other SEC offices and divisions for their review. If they have any questions or wish to respond directly to your comments, they will contact you."

Thank you for communicating your views.

Sincerely,

Katherine Shiu

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Please, people: anyone who's not done the math on how adding ultracapacitors actually affects EVs (vs. the same mass/volume of batteries), please stop commenting until you've actually done so.

Would that media in general would heed this. And the pop-up Experts... the following is satire.

Chanos: Musk is buying the wrong kind of capacitors | Bloomberg

It's completely opposite of what a sane, a real, car company would do, which is, get into what's called SUPERcapacitors, which means they operate in the supersonic range. Musk is just being a typical west-coast software guy, I'm not saying anything against him, but everyone out there is in a kind of tanning cult, they're addicted to ULTRAviolet light, so ULTRAcapacitors, which just won't work as well and obviously he'll continue burning cash. Er, Quod Erat Distributuum.

 

[bhtooefr]

Additionally, Maxwell's marketing of their ultracap solution for BEVs will be to improve power delivery for undersized battery compliance cars, with $400+/kWh cells.

Tesla, OTOH, is designing the car around cramming as many $100/kWh cells as possible in there.

 

[Tslynk67]

Got a canned response back from the SEC about my letter sent a few weeks ago about market manipulation.

"Thank you for contacting the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding your concerns about Tesla, Canaccord Genuity, and Needham & Company.

The SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy processes many comments from individual investors and others. We keep records of the correspondence we receive in a searchable database that SEC staff may make use of in inspections, examinations, and investigations. In addition, some of the correspondence we receive is referred to other SEC offices and divisions for their review. If they have any questions or wish to respond directly to your comments, they will contact you."

Thank you for communicating your views.

Sincerely,

Katherine Shiu

I got the same - guess they're catching-up with their emails following the Trump shutdown.

 

[Pezpunk]

The push to a new ATH will probably come when we're not expecting it. Too many times have we expected earnings reports to be the catalysator. But it could simply be a general improvement of the investment climate (China deal) in combination with the realisation by more and more investors that Tesla is here to stay and will become a moneymaker.

*will become* a moneymaker? are you posting via a time tunnel from 7 months ago? i've got some good news ....

 

[Curt Renz]

Audi presented the first ever Super Bowl ad featuring an electric vehicle. Of course Tesla does not pay the media to carry ads, but Audi's Super Bowl ad may actually inspire some folks to start considering a Tesla.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

To repeat: anyone who's not done the math on how adding ultracapacitors actually affects EVs (vs. the same mass/volume/price of batteries), please stop commenting until you've actually done so.

Don't forget about temperature.

Tesla limits regen substantially (discharge too to a lesser degree) for good reason when a pack is cold. Having something that can serve as a temporary energy sink when the pack can't take much power could go a long way for driveability.

 

[DurandalAI]

Audi presented the first ever Super Bowl ad featuring an electric vehicle. Of course Tesla does not pay the media to carry ads, but Audi's Super Bowl ad may actually inspire some folks to start considering a Tesla.

All I see is an association between EVs and choking on cashews. Terrible commercial if you ask me, especially with grandpa puling a cover off the car, etc... What was that ad agency thinking?

 

[Tslynk67]

Audi presented the first ever Super Bowl ad featuring an electric vehicle. Of course Tesla does not pay the media to carry ads, but Audi's Super Bowl ad may actually inspire some folks to start considering a Tesla.

In the advert, the whole thing turned out to be a fantasy, which funnily enough is how it is for real...

Notice the same stupid charge-port placement as the e-Turd...

 

[KarenRei]

My back-of-envelope calculation is it would take only 0.2kwh to do a 0-60 launch of Model 3.

And at ~$25000/kWh, that's $5k, which could have instead bought you 50kWh more li-ion cells. Single 0-60 (no faster?) launch, or double thickness pack, with 67% more sustained peak power output and 67% higher charge rates ... hmm, let me think about that one for a second