Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[keydiver]

Link to "This day in $tslaq history" please?

I believe this Twitter feed is what they were talking about:
TeslaQ HQ (@TeslaQ3) | Twitter

 

[Cherry Wine]

Hi, everyone. I started rolling some of my higher strike / shorter expiry calls. So the stock is free to break out now

TSLA: "K."

 

[mltv]

Nice...

View attachment 374433

One way to buy TSLA stock at a discount.

 

[mongo]

Wouldn't that be a 14060?

Ack, we're both wrong (I think, my brain hurts).
18650 -> 18 mm diameter x 650 mm long, 164 cm^3
2170 -> 21 mm diameter x 700 mm long, 242 cm^3
60138 (6014) - > 60 mm diameter x 138 mm long, 390 cm^3
So 1/5 the energy and 1.6x the volume = 1/8 the volumetric energy density?

BIG EDIT! thanks to @scaesare
18650 -> 18 mm diameter x 65 mm long, 16 cm^3
2170 -> 21 mm diameter x 70 mm long, 24 cm^3
601380 (60138) - > 60 mm diameter x 138 mm long, 390 cm^3
So 1/5 the energy and 16x the volume = 1/80 the volumetric energy density?

Edit: Wrong thread, I meant GREEN.
at least this part is right

 

[KarenRei]

Thanks Karen.
View attachment 374448

Any time

(Still got plenty more that I need to roll, but am waiting on them... only rolled the ones I'd basically given up on).

 

[UncaNed]

Right. As a primer, the largest Maxwell capacitor is 3V 3,400 Farad. That is 4.25 Wh. A Tesla 2170 is ~3.75V @ 6 Ah, or 22.5 Wh, five times the energy.
Maxwell 's cap is 138x60mm or a 1460 cell, so it is a little smaller, but not 5 times. 2170s also have significantly less droop that fully discharging a capacitor.

They can take/ source large currents, but not for very long. Where these could be handy is in power filtering/ short term backup. They can handle 225 Amps of ripple at 40 degrees C and have a rated 10 year lifespan at 100 Amps. With an oversized inverter, they could potentially get one through their home AC startup transient.

http://www.maxwell.com/images/documents/3V_3400F_datasheet.pdf

If they're no use... then why did Tesla buy Maxwell? Automotive performance for increased roadster 0-60 or something?

Sounds like this is on topic... being an investment by Tesla.

 

[Nocturnal]

So what is it going to take to get us back in the 370 range? I'm guessing it won't do much when Q1 earnings come, maybe even drop, but maybe Q2 and/or when Model Y starts taking orders?

i think you slightly missed my point ... i was saying their share of the EV market is NOT eroding, because the "EV market" really is just the entire automobile market, and therefore their market share is expanding by leaps and bounds.

I was half joking, but at the same time i think it's a huge mistake (the same one major manufacturers have been making for years) to cleave the automobile market into arbitrary EV and non-EV segments. Cars are cars.

I think we are on the same page. I definitely agree that legacy makers are confused about it. There is 1 car market, not 2.

 

[Tenable]

Did anyone catch the falling knife ?

I did, but in small size. I've also had the knife cut me half a dozen times in the last 1-2 months.

 

[scaesare]

Ack, we're both wrong (I think, my brain hurts).
18650 -> 18 mm diameter x 650 mm long, 164 cm^3
2170 -> 21 mm diameter x 700 mm long, 242 cm^3
60138 (6014) - > 60 mm diameter x 138 mm long, 390 cm^3
So 1/5 the energy and 1.6x the volume = 1/8 the volumetric energy density?

Edit: Wrong thread, I meant GREEN.

Oh yeah, I guess the H vs L dimensions were reversed there...

To add even more wrongerness, the 650 dimension is 65mm not 650 (dunno why they had that trailing "0" in the early nomenclature)

That also means the 70 dimension is 70, not 700mm.

That would also imply that, with the newest naming scheme, something that was 140mm long would be a "140", not a "14"

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - 25 minutes ago: Tesla’s Maxwell deal is about lowering costs and keeping a battery moat

 

[Unpilot]

Particles in thermal equilibrium follow a Maxwellian distribution; for a high-temperature Maxwellian plasma, the high-energy long tails can undergo fusion via quantum tunneling past the Coulomb barrier. Lanthanum (La) is the 57th element, so the fusion of two TSLa would be TSFl (the latter being element 114, flerovium)

Okay, maybe that was too nerdy...

Better check your math on that one.

 

[Intl Professor]

It wouldn't surprise me if other EV companies license access to the Supercharger network. Tesla could then collect a license fee per car and/or a fee for charging. At the rate the SC network is growing, it will be prohibitively expensive and time consuming for another car company to try and match that, and they probably wouldn't even want to.

Once there are enough cars using SC, I could see Tesla licensing the rights to own/operate a SC to third parties.

And then they will be forced to sell because of anti-trusters. E.g., GM and Dupont.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Please, people: anyone who's not done the math on how adding ultracapacitors actually affects EVs (vs. the same mass/volume of batteries), please stop commenting until you've actually done so.

I think there is a reasonable chance 90% of the rational for this acquisition is Maxwell's dry electrode breakthrough which Tesla must think is promising. Maxwell have been hyping a new potential "strategic partnership" on its electrode and Elon may have said we will use your tech but only if we can buy you.

That said (and apologises but I don't have time to do the math), Tesla is acquiring a company with 380 employees with a specialisation in ultracapacitor R&D. Combined with Elon's history in supercapacitor research, I'm sure Elon will spend time going through Maxwell's technology to see what potential synergies there could be with Tesla, and i think it worthwhile for people here to speculate what these could be.

The two that stand out to me are using ultracapacitors to support Powerpacks & improve grid response speed and using ultracapacitors to support regenerative breaking. Regen braking support is a very different proposition from using ultracapacitors to replace a lithium battery, which I agree seems far from feasible with current technology.

Maxwell at least sees an opportunity in regenerative braking: Maxwell Technologies Regenerative Energy Recovery Applications
"How much electrical energy can a hybrid or electric application’s rechargeable battery be expected to absorb during a braking event that lasts only a few seconds? On the flip side, rapid, deep discharges to power acceleration apply stress to batteries and shorten their life. To overcome these charge-discharge rate limitations and make rechargeable hybrid and electric application batteries last longer, they typically are oversized, adding to the volume, weight and cost of the energy storage system. That’s where the ultracapacitor’s ability to re-charge virtually instantaneously is of great benefit in regenerative energy systems."
"Every battery, irrespective of chemistry, has a finite operational life and wears out after hundreds to a few thousand charge/discharge cycles. To extend battery life and put off costly replacement, system designers build in power electronics that limit charge rate and depth of discharge. In compensating for those limitations and assuring acceptable performance, the battery must be built as oversized. Thus hybrid and electric applications must sacrifice efficiency by hauling around very large, heavy and, expensive battery systems. Ultracapacitors, on the other hand, perform reliably for one million or more charge/discharge cycles – effectively lasting the entire life of the application.
Scientists at the Argonne National Laboratory have demonstrated that an integrated system combining batteries with ultracapacitors dramatically improve braking energy recuperation efficiency and eliminate the need for battery over-sizing, reducing the weight and cost of the entire system."

Maxwell also sees potential to support battery storage projects: Maxwell Technologies Solar and Wind Intermittency Firming.

"Ultracapacitor energy storage provides multiple benefits to independent energy generators and utilities alike, for renewable generation such as solar and wind as well as traditional fuel energy generation. Maxwell Ultracapacitor products are uniquely suited to deliver excellent cost of ownership value by providing a long service life and excellent reliability. Within the context of a hybrid ultracapacitor + battery energy storage solution, ultracapacitors are utilized to perform fast response functions and extend battery lifetime.

• Frequency Response/Regulation There are short term variations in grid power generation and load that lead to frequency fluctuations on the order of seconds to minutes. These fluctuations must be tracked and balanced. Maxwell Ultracapacitors can be rapidly charged or discharged in response to a generation source frequency spike (over-generation) or dip (under-generation).
• Voltage Sag Mitigation and Power Quality. When large, fast load demands are placed on the grid, ultracapacitors can rapidly supply power to avoid voltage sag, until a generator or secondary power source comes online.
• Solar and Wind Intermittency Firming. The variable and intermittent power output from solar and wind generation causes dips and peaks in power output caused by cloud coverage over solar generation sites or fluctuations in wind speed for wind generation sites. Maxwell Ultracapacitors can firm power output and "ride through” these deviations, and also control the rate at which power ramps up and down to eliminate rapid power swings.
• Backup Power and UPS. On the grid, a reserve of power must be instantaneously ready to respond to a power outage/failure. Maxwell Ultracapacitors can supply rapid backup power as a "bridge” to maintain operations until a back-up generation source is brought on line."

 

[hobbes]

Kind of ironic, but nice for Tesla:

Volkswagen will use Tesla battery packs in some of its US charging stations

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Elon’s G650 is descending for Seattle. I wonder what he’s up to now.

Edit: back on track

 

[MP3Mike]

Oh yeah, I guess the H vs L dimensions were reversed there...

To add even more wrongerness, the 650 dimension is 65mm not 650 (dunno why they had that trailing "0" in the early nomenclature)

That also means the 70 dimension is 70, not 700mm.

That would also imply that, with the newest naming scheme, something that was 140mm long would be a "140", not a "14"

That is a problem with that format. The extra digit was for a fractional mm. So it was 18x65.0, and with the 2170 they decided to drop the digit that wasn't really being used. So you would not know if a 21140 was 21x14.0 or 21x140. Maybe if you go that far you have to add an extra 0. 211400 = 21x140.0. And then when you have a 140x70 what would it be?

It would have been so much easier if they just put the x in. 18x65, 21x70, 21x140, 140x70, etc...

 

[Unpilot]

“Know your enemy”
-Sun Tsu
-Michael Scott

meh....well maybe...but although he is just the sorry delivery boy for the big money aligned against Tesla ...I will let the stronger stomached among us look at his drivel.

 

[Rarity]

Elon’s G650 is descending for Seattle. I wonder what he’s up to now.

Likely Starlink for SpaceX. Mondays generally are SpaceX days.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Elon’s G650 is descending for Seattle. I wonder what he’s up to now.

Edit: Fakeout?

View attachment 374455

Feels like good seafood for dinner? Maybe a really fresh Starbucks?

Dan

 

[CorneliusXX]

So have I---about 5 years. I'll lose a point or so. but will be adding about another 400 TSLA. Thank you very much.

Edit: MXWL has recently talked about getting potential design wins with major OEMs. I believe this merger is a pre-emptive move on TSLA's part.

Agreed. This is the best way to lock down the IP. The only reason to purchase the company rather than just licencing the tech is to stop other from using it.