Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

You mean this:
Ultracapacitors can be connected in parallel with batteries to leverage benefits in both energy density and power density to create a more efficient, more robust overall system. Ultracapacitors are ideally suited to two of the fastest growing solutions in the automotive market: regenerative braking, i.e. KERS, and start/stop systems.

To repeat: anyone who's not done the math on how adding ultracapacitors actually affects EVs (vs. the same mass/volume/price of batteries), please stop commenting until you've actually done so.

 

[Pezpunk]

Eroding as a % of total market, not as an absolute number of cars. And just to be clear, I think it will still be several years before anyone makes a dent in their share. It's just that I think the non-auto part of the business will be the biggest growth driver

i think you slightly missed my point ... i was saying their share of the EV market is NOT eroding, because the "EV market" really is just the entire automobile market, and therefore their market share is expanding by leaps and bounds.

I was half joking, but at the same time i think it's a huge mistake (the same one major manufacturers have been making for years) to cleave the automobile market into arbitrary EV and non-EV segments. Cars are cars.

 

[Fact Checking]

The way Tesla accomplishes both simultaneously is through rapid innovation while sharing patents. It has never been clear to me if Tesla shares all their patents in battery innovation.

If they co-developed patented technologies with Panasonic then obviously their past patent pledge doesn't apply.

Even for pure Tesla invented patents, note the wording of Tesla's patent pledge:

All Our Patent Are Belong To You

"Tesla will not initiate patent lawsuits against anyone who, in good faith, wants to use our technology."​

What does this mean? In practice Tesla is much more exposed to patent litigation than other carmakers who had decades to amass a portfolio of tens of thousands of patents. If another carmaker sues Tesla then Tesla is free to countersue, using their defensive patents.

Their pledge doesn't limit the defensive nature of their patent portfolio. So Tesla's patent moat is very much intact.

 

[sundaymorning]

From the Maxwell Technology presentation from last month:
">300 Wh/kg Demonstrated with Path to >500Wh/kg identified"
"16x Production Capacity Density Increase; 10-20%+ "
"Cost Reduction versus State-of-the-Art Wet Electrodes Technology"
"Enablement & Environmentally Responsible: No Solvents, Next Gen Materials, Cobalt-Free, Solid State"

Current M3 2170cell has around 240Wh/kg energy density. This is a huuuugge step forward!!

So this purchase has a potential of 25% gain in density for Tesla batteries?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Let's not confuse lab tech with commercial tech. Everyone and their cousin has some great lab tech.

That said, Tesla clearly liked what they saw. Keep in mind: Tesla's top criteria is always cost, not density. As Musk** noted previously, everyone always comes up to Tesla with some presentation about their shiny new battery tech, always boasting immediately about energy and power density. Tesla always interrupts their pitch with: what's your cost at scale? And if they can't answer it, or answer it too high, they're shown the door.

** I think it was Musk; it might have been some other Tesla official involved in battery development who mentioned this. But I think it was Musk; I'd need to dig it up again.

I’m curious: less flashy, but what about replacing the 12V lead acid battery with these capacitors? It’s pretty clear their use of it isn’t optimal, and the constant charging/discharging cycles they put them through leads(ha!) to an outsized need to replace them under warranty. Seems like the perfect use for something that can be charged/discharged basically forever without losing capacity(ha again!)

 

[kyzhk]

So this purchase has a potential of 25% gain in density for Tesla batteries?

If I remember correctly tesla battery energy density at the cell level is ~240-250 Wh/kg. I am not sure how 300 Wh/kg translates to energy density at the cell level, but 10-20% cost reduction is definitely welcome. Along with the path to 500 Wh/kg this is exciting.

And unsurprsingly not a single short tweeted anything about volkswagen charging station buying battery pack from Tesla. I can see how hard it is for them to wrap their head around the fact that even if these "competitions" come out in couple years, there are more than one way (i.e. expanding overall EV market and validates that EV isn't a fad) Tesla is going to benefit from competitors expansion.


edit* Not sure why everyone quoting me is thinking that I'm talking about capacitor. I did not mention anything about capacitor in this post except for this edit!

 

[AlexS]

If I remember correctly tesla battery energy density at the cell level is ~240-250 Wh/kg. I am not sure how 300 Wh/kg translates to energy density at the cell level, but 10-20% cost reduction is definitely welcome. Along with the path to 500 Wh/kg this is exciting.

And unsurprsingly not a single short tweeted anything about volkswagen charging station buying battery pack from Tesla. I can see how hard it is for them to wrap their head around the fact that even if these "competitions" come out in couple years, there are more than one way (i.e. expanding overall EV market and validates that EV isn't a fad) Tesla is going to benefit from competitors expansion.

Seems this deal is all about patent for dry electrodes technology for batteries and not much to do with ultracapacitors.

 

[scaesare]

I wonder how much of the Maxwell purchase has to do with dielectric/materials intellectual property applicable to battery design as opposed to actual "capacitor" technology.

(On edit literally a second later: What @AlexS said)

 

[Unpilot]

Excerpt from Stanphyl Capital letter: "Less expensive and available now are the excellent new all-electric Hyundai Kona and Kia Nero, extremely well reviewed small crossovers with an EPA range of 258 miles for the Hyundai and 238 miles for the Kia, at prices of under $30,000 inclusive of the $7500 U.S. tax credit."

Neither of these are available in the US so they are ineligible for $7500 US tax credit. What am I missing here?

You guys are much more ...um...patient than I am.
When someone is as consistently wrong as that guy I stop paying any attention to them.

 

[Remus]

Please, people: anyone who's not done the math on how adding ultracapacitors actually affects EVs (vs. the same mass/volume of batteries), please stop commenting until you've actually done so.

It maybe for stationary storage instead of cars.

 

[Toolsmack]

If I remember correctly tesla battery energy density at the cell level is ~240-250 Wh/kg. I am not sure how 300 Wh/kg translates to energy density at the cell level, but 10-20% cost reduction is definitely welcome. Along with the path to 500 Wh/kg this is exciting.

And unsurprsingly not a single short tweeted anything about volkswagen charging station buying battery pack from Tesla. I can see how hard it is for them to wrap their head around the fact that even if these "competitions" come out in couple years, there are more than one way (i.e. expanding overall EV market and validates that EV isn't a fad) Tesla is going to benefit from competitors expansion.

I did see this one but I understand you having him on ignore or being blocked.

 

[kyzhk]

Seems this deal is all about patent for dry electrodes technology for batteries and not much to do with ultracapacitors.

Yes, I think the quote is about battery - not capacitor?

AFAIK commercially available ultracapacitor has a energy density < 10 Wh/kg. The 300Wh/kg figure is likely referring to application of their "dry electrode" in lithium ion battery.

 

[humbaba]

Reporting on revenue recognition changes is still causing confusion—even for analysts

...so, we are all wrong and $TSLA GAAP profit in Q4 was not selling so many M3s. Rather, despite selling so many they really operated at a GAAP loss, but used new accounting standard to only make it look better than Q4 2017.

sigh. When 85% of companies used the same accounting, why did they select $TSLA as the poster child for "misleading GAAP reporting"? Was $TSLA the only one to show a YoY GAAP profit increase?

 

[humbaba]

View attachment 374445

I did see this one but I understand you having him on ignore or being blocked.

Is the point of that that Tesla should no longer be spending anything on capex? I'm really not sure what smeagol's point was. Obviously spending money on growth/expansion/improvement is going to cost. So what?

 

[KarenRei]

Hi, everyone. I started rolling some of my higher strike / shorter expiry calls. So the stock is free to break out now

 

[AlexS]

TSLAQ community on twitter reporting that fair value of the deal would have been 4.20, why did't elon offer 4.20. I have to admit it's funny.

 

[KarenRei]

It maybe for stationary storage instead of cars.

At ~$25000/kWh, those would be some pretty pricey stationary storage products.

 

[kyzhk]

Hi, everyone. I started rolling some of my higher strike / shorter expiry calls. So the stock is free to break out now

Thanks Karen.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

You guys are much more ...um...patient than I am.
When someone is as consistently wrong as that guy I stop paying any attention to them.

“Know your enemy”
-Sun Tsu
-Michael Scott

 

[EVNow]

Hi, everyone. I started rolling some of my higher strike / shorter expiry calls. So the stock is free to break out now

Thanks for your sacrifice. I'm still waiting to roll.