Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mikevbf]

I don’t think they should delay. Can license the tech and that would be lucrative

Doesn't Tesla freely share their patents and IP on everything including batteries anyway in order to Catalyze the advent of sustainable transport and energy?

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

basically Yes,
but you cannot say - not designed well, because it gets still 5-star rating, and better than many many other cars on the market.

Well, that being the case, it needs to have an * beside those results. Which would you prefer to walk in front of... a car that will stop for you and let you be on your way (tho startled I'm sure) or a car that does a better job of hurting you less? The problem with these tests is that they cannot take Tesla's AEB system into consideration for the overall rating, because no one else has anything close. It's almost like there needs to be a separate test and rating scale for Tesla.


BTW - thank you for your informative reply. It's hard to weed through all the posts - especially when half of them have comments like "the other manufacturers design their system to be good at the tests" - which is nothing more than a wasted post. If you posted this information yesterday, I apologize for not seeing it.

 

[humbaba]

So essentially, what they're saying is, "Tesla does a great job of not hitting pedestrians. But, when they do, their cars are not designed well to protect the pedestrian from injuries"?

Instead of trying to rephrase it to be negative you could, I don't know, use the NCAP phrasing which does not say what you want it to. Either stupidly stubborn or an obstinate care bear. But I've lost the caring.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Doesn't Tesla freely share their patents and IP on everything including batteries anyway in order to Catalyze the advent of sustainable transport and energy?

No, this is commonly mis spoken. Tesla released some patented related to the skateboard design and some of the original battery related patents. Tesla hasn't done the same for a number of years in terms of their IP.

Also it was stated in the terms of that original IP that they opened up to anyone that if a company were to use those patented things Tesla could then use their IP. Which is pretty much why we're seeing cars from traditional auto makers that still cant match 2012 model s specs

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Now that everyone has had 24 hours to make their point about Tesla's crash safety, let's end that discussion.

 

[KarenRei]

If you posted this information yesterday, I apologize for not seeing it.

There were literally at least a dozen points describing this to you yesterday, including a literal photo walkthrough of the zero-effort steps required to see the info on the NCAP website.

ED: Just saw the post above.

 

[LN1_Casey]

What's going on with the Flash sale of TSLA? News I didn't catch, or just a particularly aggressive MMD?

 

[sparcs]

Highlight: Construction of the plant is expected to begin in mid-2020.
Translation: GM will invest with LG a combined 2018 Tesla scale investment to be online by 2026-2028.
Result: This will likely never be built. Tesla will have spent well over 20 billion by 2026 building capacity with partners or alone. The scale and cost savings from Tesla's head start, already significant, will be overwhelming.

where are you getting 2026? groundbreaking is in the middle of next year. Let's say it takes 1.5 to 2 years construction so maybe late 2021 to early 2022. Then some sort of ramp so they may not have any meaningful production until well into 2022.

It's a good investment for GM as you don't make EVs without having a clear battery supply that can drive down costs.

I don't see it as competition as Tesla will be heavily entrenched by then with an even larger battery supply than today. Heck, even the Cybertruck will be in production by then.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm happy for Tesla to retain their lead in battery chemistry and implementation, etc., but I do not wish all other ventures to fail, in fact we need them all to succeed, massively.

Don't forget it's all about The Mission, not Tesla's share price. The BEV market is gigantic and Tesla will surely take a big share of it, but right now they can't make this vital transition alone.

 

[KarenRei]

What's going on with the Flash sale of TSLA? News I didn't catch, or just a particularly aggressive MMD?

Low volume. Volume buyers taking a break for a bit. If the case is decided today, I bet we'll see more volume tomorrow (even though, obviously, it shouldn't matter).

 

[elasalle]

Added a few Jun 21 calls (420-450 ) range ....

 

[Tslynk67]

Low volume. Volume buyers taking a break for a bit.

As I said yesterday, I'm sure this stupid trial is keeping some buyers away.

The sooner it's done, the better.

 

[Nocturnal]

I don't think Elon is a Starbucks fan. He likes coffee, but apparently not Starbucks. I know he's not into market research, but I expect a lot of Tesla drivers are Starbucks customers. McDonalds might be ok for people who would stop for a coffee or snack. The key is a place to sit for 15-30 minutes, have coffee, expel coffee and unwind.

For sure. I don't know that I love Starbucks per se, but in most of the country it's a decent cup at Starbucks, or swill at McDonalds. Maybe there is a dunkin that has passable (too sour for me) coffee.

It would certainly be nice to not have so many SCs tied to fast food places. My waist line doesn't need the encouragement.

The Y won’t pass the 3 for a very long time unless they reduce the output of the 3. Soon we will have 10k a week model 3’s. You would need 15k a week model Y for years to eclipse that. Until late 2021 the 3 will still be made in greater numbers.

I'm assuming demand for the Y will also grow at a moderate pace as well because it will be mostly organic. ​

 

[KarenRei]

I'm happy for Tesla to retain their lead in battery chemistry and implementation, etc., but I do not wish all other ventures to fail, in fact we need them all to succeed, massively.

Don't forget it's all about The Mission, not Tesla's share price. The BEV market is gigantic and Tesla will surely take a big share of it, but right now they can't make this vital transition alone.

Even Tesla also buys third-party cells, in addition to their Panasonic cells.

 

[Fact Checking]

Low volume. Volume buyers taking a break for a bit. If the case is decided today, I bet we'll see more volume tomorrow (even though, obviously, it shouldn't matter).

The Unsworth trial will probably extend into tomorrow, and at this point I'd say there's an even chance for both parties to win. Unsworth's lawyer isn't particularly good, but Unsworth's testimony was reportedly emotional - and I suspect much depends on whether the jury sympathizes with him.

 

[dc_h]

where are you getting 2026? groundbreaking is in the middle of next year. Let's say it takes 1.5 to 2 years construction so maybe late 2021 to early 2022. Then some sort of ramp so they may not have any meaningful production until well into 2022.

It's a good investment for GM as you don't make EVs without having a clear battery supply that can drive down costs.

I don't see it as competition as Tesla will be heavily entrenched by then with an even larger battery supply than today. Heck, even the Cybertruck will be in production by then.

I did misread. I read mid 2020's start, not mid 2020 start (big difference). It looks like they will meet Tesla end of 2019 capacity when at full production. Will be interesting to see how well they execute on the cell and pack production. They did say cell production, so is GM moving to cell from pouch?

• General Motors and LG Chem will invest up to $2.3 billion by 2023 to form a joint venture for production of battery cells for electric vehicles in Ohio.
• Construction of the plant is expected to begin in mid-2020.

 

[Fred42]

where are you getting 2026? groundbreaking is in the middle of next year. Let's say it takes 1.5 to 2 years construction so maybe late 2021 to early 2022. Then some sort of ramp so they may not have any meaningful production until well into 2022.

It's a good investment for GM as you don't make EVs without having a clear battery supply that can drive down costs.

I don't see it as competition as Tesla will be heavily entrenched by then with an even larger battery supply than today. Heck, even the Cybertruck will be in production by then.

And this syncs with GM's previously stated plan to bring the first of their new EV's to market in 2022.

 

[mongo]

They did say cell production, so is GM moving to cell from pouch?

A cell is a single unit, it does not imply cylindrical form factor.
For instance, a 12V car lead acid battery has 6 cells.
Types of Battery Cells; Cylindrical Cell, Button Cell, Pouch Cell

 

[Mike Smith]

I guess the two or 3 years to build and get a battery factory up to volume production als means gm doesn’t see producing electric autos in significant volume until then

They're saying 2023, so I think it's safe to assume end of 2023, which is over 4 years away. If they're lucky and there is only 1 year of delays this means production will begin in 5 years. I'm guessing they'll be ramped up to 30Gwh 7 years from now. That would also be when they mean they'll be below $100/Kwh, and I assume they mean at the cell level. They're saying they'll spend $2.3 billion by 2023, so total cost to get to 30Gwh will probably be around $4 billion.

 

[Chocochip]

Highlight: Construction of the plant is expected to begin in mid-2020.
Translation: GM will invest with LG a combined 2018 Tesla scale investment to be online by 2026-2028.
Result: This will likely never be built. Tesla will have spent well over 20 billion by 2026 building capacity with partners or alone. The scale and cost savings from Tesla's head start, already significant, will be overwhelming.

Oh, I think it will get built, but by that time both GM and LG Chem will be in full panic mode.

Today's announcement is just a "look, we're transitioning to electric mobility, we have this here agreement for battery supply, see?" type exercise, but GM clearly lacks the urgency that they should be sensing at this point in time. Barra's comments on EV vs. ICE pick-ups shows that they have the exact same approach as the rest of the fossilised traditional automakers: "our customers don't want EVs, or at least they're not sure if they want them, so we'll make sure they have the choice of a well-made ICE pickup until they clearly, definitely don't want one anymore... but we know that won't happen for maaany years! And for the weirdos that do want an EV pickup, well, we will have one in a couple of years."

They still think this is the very early stage of the transition. They don't get the fact that Tesla (and Rivian to a certain extent) will be crossing the finish line before they're done lacing up their running shoes.