Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

You are not making good sense. The obvious meaning is "before the end of the year". So, what is your point?

Point is, he can miss his smart summon estimated date on twitter by half a year because it's twitter. But this "before the end of the year" is used to sway people's decision in spending 7k or not. Not meeting this deadline leads to more people attacking Elon since they are quick to point to fraud and false advertisement.

FSD is hard, don't know why he set specific time frames. This is the type of thing CNBC host points to as "look how he uses deception and false advertisement to get people to pay 7k".

 

[RFernatt]

He didn't mention lithium and there was no reason to believe he meant lithium. The claim I was responding to was that he hinted at getting into lithium mining.

True, he mentioned mining but didn't specifically mention any minerals. However, Tesla did raise concerns about battery mineral supply to the US govt including lithium, so it would seem to be implied at least somewhat. Tesla also had discussions with SQM in Chile that apparently didn't work out and Musk seems to have no problem doing his own thing when other parties aren't cooperative. So, if Musk mentions mining, I think there are at least hints that lithium mining could be explored especially if Tesla goes its own way for battery production. IMHO, of course, and when, if it did happen, would be anyone's guess.

 

[Yonki]

Except that with Fidelity, if you have a 401K, you only have a few relatively poor choices.

Probably, I don't know - was able to convert my 401(k) to a Rollover IRA so I could put way too much of it into TSLA.

 

[StealthP3D]

FSD is hard, don't know why he set specific time frames.

It is impossible to provide a time estimation without setting specific timeframes. The estimated timeframe you refer to is not for regulator-approved Full Self-Driving, it's for "feature complete" FSD. That doesn't mean FSD, it simply means the features are all included and will improve with time, hopefully to the point that regulators will approve it. And Tesla can make that kind of estimation much more easily because it's entirely dependent upon their development effort, not unpredictable regulators. Tesla has been crystal clear on this point often as I'm sure you are aware.

This is the type of thing CNBC host points to as "look how he uses deception and false advertisement to get people to pay 7k".

Do you really think CNBC wouldn't find other FUD if not for that? Tesla is not going to worry about CNBC because they would find a flaw with the fictional perfect automobile company. The one had not a single flaw. Except that it was disrupting multiple big-money industries.

 

[The Accountant]

I posted this in the Unsworth thread but thought important enough to add here too.
With Lin Wood finally throwing in the towel, I hope the FUD noise around this trial finally subsides.

 

[M3Rider]

I would say that Musk would give some people less fire power to hate him if he practiced more under promise/over deliever. I know he is really excited about what he is doing and likes show his excitement but having certain things not come to fruition at the specific time line he has given really turns off some people.

For example, city street driving/sign/stop light response are advertised as "coming later this year.." when we have about 20 days left. When Elon haters point to this as false advertisement, there's really nothing I can counter with. Just changing the text to "coming soon" vs giving a specific time frame goes a long way to restore credibility of his promises.

Latest update did not promise by the EOY. He said it seems currently we're on track(for early access), but it did not mean a promise.
People always ask him for timelines, but ignore the word estimate.

The question was about battery availability for 37 million vehicles industry-wide. My post was not intended to be a prediction of the future, but rather to show the scale that Tesla is talking about achieving and how that translates into auto industry numbers. Tesla will not control production of 72% of battery production in 4 years, which means that if they hit this goal, total battery availability would be even larger. Yes, they will dedicate them to different markets.

But, Tesla also does not need to build the vehicle for every battery they dedicate to the auto market.

I think what would really help us to get a better idea is if someone created a spreadsheet with:

1. current/planned future battery capacity (including projected year) by battery manufacturers.
Possibly, another tab including locations of battery plants(country, city) and their capacity, if available.

2. Statements from OEMs about how much capacity they plan to use / by which battery manufacturer / when.

That would show the overall planned capacity by year and if someone falls behind, then which OEMs will be affected and what does that do to overall goals/capacity.

Would be easy to see Tesla's market % from this year by year.

This doc could be crowd sourced with people contributing info to the TMC thread about the spreadsheet based on info they come across globally/locally.

 

[StealthP3D]

I posted this in the Unsworth thread but thought important enough to add here too.
With Lin Wood finally throwing in the towel, I hope the FUD noise around this trial finally subsides.


View attachment 486630

I believe he meant "Lake". That's where he was headed (to write and reflect) shortly after he left the courtroom.

It's nice to see make this admission but I can't help but think it's to create the impression that the trial was worthwhile, not a terrible waste of time for tens/hundreds of talented people. Unsworth should have been wearing his big-boy pants. Somehow the lawyers convinced him to put on his fairy skirt and act fatally injured to the tune of $190 million. Now he wants to act like it was a good and noble thing he just did.

 

[The Accountant]

I believe he meant "Lake". That's where he was headed (to write and reflect) shortly after he left the courtroom.

Yes - thanks. I edited out my Lake comment once i realized that.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think what would really help us to get a better idea is if someone created a spreadsheet with:

1. current/planned future battery capacity (including projected year) by battery manufacturers.

We are talking 5-year timelines here. Tesla (or anyone else) is not going to announce planned battery production in 5 years (except in the most general vague ways). 5 years is long enough in the future that, even if they wanted to disclose this kind of info, it would have limited accuracy. Because, remember, the batteries being produced in 5 years will probably use different production methods running on highly specialized equipment that doesn't even exist now and the battery specs will be different/better too.

 

[Tim S]

I find it hard to imagine that in 48 months time (beginning of 2024) that the auto industry will be anywhere near a 37 million annual run rate for the simple fact that there will be nowhere near that much battery supply available.

Thats not to say I'm in general agreement that even at the base 6% marketshare case of the overall auto market once at 100% EV, that Tesla wouldn't be doing extremely well if margins are similar to today.

According to the post you are quoting, "Woods says that Ark believes that in 2024 (i.e. for their 5-year forecast) total EV sales will be 37M units."

5 years is 60 months from now, the end of 2024, not the beginning. I see lots of posters using your 48-month number incorrectly.

 

[JustMe]

He didn't mention lithium and there was no reason to believe he meant lithium. The claim I was responding to was that he hinted at getting into lithium mining. I don't see that happening for numerous reasons. If Tesla enters the mining business it will be for more strategic minerals than lithium.

Absolutely-

There’s a lot of focus on batteries and Li,Co when it comes to EV hyper growth demands on raw materials. But a dark horse here could be the projected doubling of global demand for Rare Earth Elements for use in magnets for millions of EVs - sometime in the next 5-10 years. China controls 85% of the REE market and has threatened to use this leverage in a trade war.

The only major miner/processor of REE in the west is an Australian company (Lynas). There’s a bit of panic in western governments over this as a strategic/economic threat but it is expensive ~$1B and time consuming (years) to build new facilities. ( I am long on Lynas.)

What Musk said sounded like a half-formed idea at the time but I’m sure they’ve studied important supply risks to growing >40x larger as fast as they can. We may get more hints about what their plans are at battery investor day.

 

[M3Rider]

We are talking 5-year timelines here. Tesla (or anyone else) is not going to announce planned battery production in 5 years (except in the most general vague ways). 5 years is long enough in the future that, even if they wanted to disclose this kind of info, it would have limited accuracy. Because, remember, the batteries being produced in 5 years will probably use different production methods running on highly specialized equipment that doesn't even exist now and the battery specs will be different/better too.

Nobody talks in terms of battery specs.
But there are statements in terms of # of cars(sometimes with advertised battery capacity) or Gwhs.
Understandably, these are BS goals, but goals nevertheless.

It's hard to keep track about all promises from OEMs unless they are assembled in a single place, with whatever specifics was available/provided.

I just vaguely understand Tesla currently has ~50% of world batteries, but would be nice to see the current capacity of everybogy(BYD, LG Chem, etc.) and their growth perspectives based on contacts with OEMs and whatever goals were declared, whether laughable or not.

 

[Singuy]

Latest update did not promise by the EOY. He said it seems currently we're on track(for early access), but it did not mean a promise.
People always ask him for timelines, but ignore the word estimate.



I think what would really help us to get a better idea is if someone created a spreadsheet with:

1. current/planned future battery capacity (including projected year) by battery manufacturers.
Possibly, another tab including locations of battery plants(country, city) and their capacity, if available.

2. Statements from OEMs about how much capacity they plan to use / by which battery manufacturer / when.

That would show the overall planned capacity by year and if someone falls behind, then which OEMs will be affected and what does that do to overall goals/capacity.

Would be easy to see Tesla's market % from this year by year.

This doc could be crowd sourced with people contributing info to the TMC thread about the spreadsheet based on info they come across globally/locally.

We can't go with latest updates from an interview or podcast. It is not changed on the official ordering page. Who knows maybe he will push it out in 20 days to a select few. So far the 40.2 updates is stuck with early access only so I don't know this magic he is going to pull out of his hat.

 

[kengchang]

We can't go with latest updates from an interview or podcast. It is not changed on the official ordering page. Who knows maybe he will push it out in 20 days to a select few. So far the 40.2 updates is stuck with early access only so I don't know this magic he is going to pull out of his hat.

If FSD gets released this year, it will be to Early Access only for sure

 

[JustMe]

I would say that Musk would give some people less fire power to hate him if he practiced more under promise/over deliever...

For example, city street driving/sign/stop light response are advertised as "coming later this year.." when we have about 20 days left. When Elon haters point to this as false advertisement, there's really nothing I can counter with. Just changing the text to "coming soon" vs giving a specific time frame goes a long way to restore credibility of his promises.

He has missed a few self imposed deadlines, but a lot of the bitching and moaning about failed Elon Musk promises ultimately comes from people misremembering or misrepresenting what was actually “promised”

I’m guessing you misremembered what he said.

What Elon Musk actually said was “Tesla may grant certain customers early access to a “feature complete” version of the company’s “full self-driving” (FSD) capabilities by the end of 2019, Elon Musk said in a call with investors Wednesday. Musk said that this wasn’t “for sure” — but that he thinks Tesla is on track for the release”.
Tesla’s ‘Full Self-Driving’ feature may get early-access release by the end of 2019

Anyone who witnessed this call could tell he really wanted to do this but was really unsure. The pace of technological development can be very difficult to predict.

It’s better - and not that hard - to look up what he actually said. Was it a promise, expectation, goal, hope, or off the cuff remark?

People tend to just parrot what the headlines are, which are often tenuously related to the truth. And some people make specious accusations or repeat outright lies because they have an agenda.

Be mindful of where you get your information.

 

[Buckminster]

I am starting to think Woods' number of 37M BEVs produced globally in 2024 sounds too optimistic.

If we very optimistically allow for her bull case (where Tesla grows their production annually at a staggering 77%), then Tesla will produce (close to) 7M cars in 2024. That means that all other car manufacturers have to grow their BEV production at the same insane growth as Tesla, and get to 30M BEVs in 5 years.

This seems way to optimistic. Tesla's assumed growth would need them to grow their battery production at the same rate. To maintain its growth, Tesla would need to get into cheaper market segments, so it seems fair to assume e.g. 80 kWh (as opposed to more) for the average Tesla in 2024. This would require an annual 500 GWh of batteries for Tesla in 2024.

But even assuming quite small 50kWh batteries, the non-Tesla global BEV production would have to have access to 1500 GWh of battery capacity in just 5 years to reach the matching 30M BEVs. Given the fumbling steps that auto makers have made so far in the area of batteries, I completely fail to see how Tesla's competition should deploy 3 times as many batteries as Tesla would manage.

But since so far Tesla is 5-7 years ahead technically on BEVs it would probably be reasonable to assume that their competition would need equally large batteries in their cars, to maintain their market share. By that reasoning, Tesla would in 2024 need 500 GWh batteries at a market share of 17%, but the competition would then need about 6 times as much i.e. 3000 GWh of batteries.

I completely fail to see that happening.

So I am going to have to be sceptical with Cathie Woods' assertion that global BEV sales in 2024 will reach 37M.

Which (if true) is good for the Tesla investment thesis, since then Tesla's market share would likely grow from its current level - as argued by @NakedLong - but equally bad for the rapid transition to sustainable transportation.

Tesla being 6 years ahead will limit sales to non-Tesla brands. This limits investment and therefore the 37m is not going to happen. Had sales for Taycan, eTron etc. been off the charts, we would see VW buying mining companies and building 10 Gigafactories - the stuff needed to get to that level so quickly.

 

[Buckminster]

In the not too distant future some folks may whine, "What? I'm not getting into a car driven by a human!"

Already in use by mothers in-law the world over.

 

[2virgule5]

He has missed a few self imposed deadlines, but a lot of the bitching and moaning about failed Elon Musk promises ultimately comes from people misremembering or misrepresenting what was actually “promised”

I’m guessing you misremembered what he said.

What Elon Musk actually said was “Tesla may grant certain customers early access to a “feature complete” version of the company’s “full self-driving” (FSD) capabilities by the end of 2019, Elon Musk said in a call with investors Wednesday. Musk said that this wasn’t “for sure” — but that he thinks Tesla is on track for the release”.
Tesla’s ‘Full Self-Driving’ feature may get early-access release by the end of 2019

Anyone who witnessed this call could tell he really wanted to do this but was really unsure. The pace of technological development can be very difficult to predict.

It’s better - and not that hard - to look up what he actually said. Was it a promise, expectation, goal, hope, or off the cuff remark?

People tend to just parrot what the headlines are, which are often tenuously related to the truth. And some people make specious accusations or repeat outright lies because they have an agenda.

Be mindful of where you get your information.

When you pick the FSD option on the order page of any Tesla you see the below. Any reasonable consumer would then expect the car to ‘respond’ to traffic light and stop sign and get ‘automatic driving on city’. I think this is what @Singuy was alluding to. If this deadline is not met it will provide amunitions to Tesla haters, even if we at TMC understand the fine details on how the company works and we don’t mind the occasional delays given the massive progress the company is making.

Coming this year:

• Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
• Automatic driving on city streets

 

[Singuy]

He has missed a few self imposed deadlines, but a lot of the bitching and moaning about failed Elon Musk promises ultimately comes from people misremembering or misrepresenting what was actually “promised”

I’m guessing you misremembered what he said.

What Elon Musk actually said was “Tesla may grant certain customers early access to a “feature complete” version of the company’s “full self-driving” (FSD) capabilities by the end of 2019, Elon Musk said in a call with investors Wednesday. Musk said that this wasn’t “for sure” — but that he thinks Tesla is on track for the release”.
Tesla’s ‘Full Self-Driving’ feature may get early-access release by the end of 2019

Anyone who witnessed this call could tell he really wanted to do this but was really unsure. The pace of technological development can be very difficult to predict.

It’s better - and not that hard - to look up what he actually said. Was it a promise, expectation, goal, hope, or off the cuff remark?

People tend to just parrot what the headlines are, which are often tenuously related to the truth. And some people make specious accusations or repeat outright lies because they have an agenda.

Be mindful of where you get your information.

Again, I am talking about the average buyer. My co-worker just bought a Tesla with FSD. She thinks FSD coming this month. She didn't get her info from anyone except the order page.

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla being 6 years ahead will limit sales to non-Tesla brands. This limits investment and therefore the 37m is not going to happen. Had sales for Taycan, eTron etc. been off the charts, we would see VW buying mining companies and building 10 Gigafactories - the stuff needed to get to that level so quickly.

Sales for Taycan, eTron, etc. would have been off the charts if they had prices and specs even remotely comparable to Tesla (and the production capacity to match). But they were obviously inferior in multiple ways for the price. That just leaves a bigger hole for Tesla to fill. As the EV price curve continues to decline, it's really all about how quickly Tesla can expand its production capacity (which further drives cost declines). Which is why so many of us are looking forward to the upcoming Investor's Battery Day.