Holy delivery surge Batman! This is my final international deliveries update for Q4 2019.
This data is taken from the fine work of Franco Mossotto and friends Franco Mossotto on Twitter
The international deliveries were smooth sailing all quarter long. Four more ships are in F. Mossotto's google docs
spreadsheet and are expected for Q1. Vehicle loading days = how much total time each ship was loaded with cars.
I've seen estimates for #cars loaded per day range from 1000 - 1500. For comparison we have total VL days of:
Q2: 24.5, Q3: 30.2, Q4: 45 vehicle loading days. Note that these are only ships going to Europe, China, Japan and Korea.
There have been ships going to New Zealand and Australia that are not on the google docs spreadsheet.
So - taken at face value Tesla may have shipped about 15,000 - 22,000 more cars to EU and Asia in Q4 than Q3.
IF this is true, this would suggest 97 + (15 or 22) = 112,000 - 119,000 deliveries for Q4.
Troy Teslike has been putting out his own estimates of Tesla's shipments each Q.
For Q3, he estimated 55k US + Canada and 46K ROW = 101k. He overestimated by 4k.
Something that puzzles me is that Troy only expects 13k cars shipped to China + other APAC in Q4. But Tesla sent 8 ships to Asia this Q, with vehicle loading days totaling 26.6. So this seems to be grossly underestimated. Taking the lower estimate of 1000 cars/day he may be underestimating Asia deliveries by at least 13000 cars. If we add that to his estimate we get 119,000 deliveries.
Another way of looking at this is his current and final delivery estimate for Q4 is 60,700 US+Canada + 45,300 ROW = 106,000
IF this is true, then Tesla will also deliver 5k more cars in Q4 to the US+Canada, adding 5k more to the 15 - 22k international delivery bump: 117,000 - 124,000 deliveries in Q4?!
Does this pass the smell test? Wow, I have a real hard time believing the top end estimate of 124k, because that would imply a production rate of 10,000 per week and I don't think anyone believes Tesla has reached that in US alone. There's also the complication of not knowing the difference in "vehicles in transit" there will end up being between Q3 and Q4. But I will say this -> it looks like Tesla will easily surpass 360,000 deliveries for 2019 and on that basis there seems to be no reason to rush GF3 shipments this month to make up a shortfall in full year delivery guidance. Good times
This data is taken from the fine work of Franco Mossotto and friends Franco Mossotto on Twitter
The international deliveries were smooth sailing all quarter long. Four more ships are in F. Mossotto's google docs
spreadsheet and are expected for Q1. Vehicle loading days = how much total time each ship was loaded with cars.
I've seen estimates for #cars loaded per day range from 1000 - 1500. For comparison we have total VL days of:
Q2: 24.5, Q3: 30.2, Q4: 45 vehicle loading days. Note that these are only ships going to Europe, China, Japan and Korea.
There have been ships going to New Zealand and Australia that are not on the google docs spreadsheet.
So - taken at face value Tesla may have shipped about 15,000 - 22,000 more cars to EU and Asia in Q4 than Q3.
IF this is true, this would suggest 97 + (15 or 22) = 112,000 - 119,000 deliveries for Q4.
Troy Teslike has been putting out his own estimates of Tesla's shipments each Q.
For Q3, he estimated 55k US + Canada and 46K ROW = 101k. He overestimated by 4k.
Something that puzzles me is that Troy only expects 13k cars shipped to China + other APAC in Q4. But Tesla sent 8 ships to Asia this Q, with vehicle loading days totaling 26.6. So this seems to be grossly underestimated. Taking the lower estimate of 1000 cars/day he may be underestimating Asia deliveries by at least 13000 cars. If we add that to his estimate we get 119,000 deliveries.
Another way of looking at this is his current and final delivery estimate for Q4 is 60,700 US+Canada + 45,300 ROW = 106,000
IF this is true, then Tesla will also deliver 5k more cars in Q4 to the US+Canada, adding 5k more to the 15 - 22k international delivery bump: 117,000 - 124,000 deliveries in Q4?!
Does this pass the smell test? Wow, I have a real hard time believing the top end estimate of 124k, because that would imply a production rate of 10,000 per week and I don't think anyone believes Tesla has reached that in US alone. There's also the complication of not knowing the difference in "vehicles in transit" there will end up being between Q3 and Q4. But I will say this -> it looks like Tesla will easily surpass 360,000 deliveries for 2019 and on that basis there seems to be no reason to rush GF3 shipments this month to make up a shortfall in full year delivery guidance. Good times