Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

I wonder if there is a non-accounting reason for waiting.

May be they still need to get some permission from local authorities / crash testing etc ?

The other possibility is they get more credits if they sell in '20 ?

Finally, they may be waiting for some software update before releasing.

IIRC, with X (and 3 too ?) they were waiting on some part for finally selling the cars.

I'm with @ReflexFunds on this one: I think non-GF3 deliveries will be just fine in Q4 even without GF3, and Tesla is probably already highly confident in this outcome with 20 days still left in the quarter.

This means that by delivering say 1k or 2k units from GF3 in Q4 has little added Q4 value, but might as well make the difference to soundly beat Q1'2019 results - which "Q1 shock" must still be a vivid memory for Tesla higher ups. Why make Q4, an already record quarter with half a dozen of major records already, a bit better at the expense of Q1'2020 which is still somewhat of a question mark with a couple of headwinds such as the expected drop in the Netherlands and a smaller post-tax-credit drop in the U.S.?

Plus if GF3 overhead costs (fixed staff costs, running expenses plus depreciation and amortization) are say $40m per quarter and there are 1k GF3 deliveries generating $50m of revenue and $10m of gross profits, then this would materially hurt Q4 gross margins: Model 3 gross margins would drop by about 0.7%.

OTOH if they delay it to Q1 they might either recognize those expenses in Q1, where it will be absorbed by well over 10,000 GF3 deliveries if everything goes to plan, or declare it trial production costs and stick it into capex?

So I think there's multiple good reasons to delay GF3 deliveries to Q1'2020, and that this is basically a tactical call for Tesla. Also note that Tesla is apparently filling Chinese delivery centers with the new Model 3's - if there's any weakness in the end of quarter EU or U.S. deliveries push they could easily deliver 1k-2k units in the final week of Q4, on a moment's notice. We can call it a 'strategic reserve'.

 

[Tslynk67]

Ok but you're still projecting; you're implying that I am holding a grudge, or that I'm perturbed by Cramer. I don't and I'm not. I just accurately see him for what he is, and know he is not worthy of respect.

One's experience of life WILL generally reflect your mindstate/spirit though. That is a fact

The guy was a hedge-fund manager, right, so it's not like he's just a "TV guy". But now he is a TV guy, he's paid to pick some stock, talk some crap about them and entertain when required. I think he does it well.

He also seems pretty straight now I actually watch him.

So yeah, I cut him some slack and am happy to have him on-board. Going to be hard for TIM to sit there feeling good while his short drowns and Jim talks up the stock.

And hey, look at the "Cramer effect" in pre, this morning

That's a big pop for such small volume and barring too much manipulation is screaming >$360 to me...

 

[Causalien]

gygku

If they hit the ground running with deliveries early in Jan 2020 they can deliver before the start of CNY.

"This year, Lunar New Year falls on February 5."

Most probably there is a really busy period 2 weeks either side of Feb 5 not many deliveries in those 2 weeks.

2020 it is Jan 25th. A very early Lunar new year to be honest.

Tesla is probably preparing for the rush after Lunar new year. All the millenials will feel richer after receiving red pouches from 6 of their elders. They will be flush with cash and ready to buy a new car. Tesla has all of Feb and March for delivery without having to worry about having production and delivery interrupted in the middle of the quarter.

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla is probably preparing for the rush after Lunar new year. All the millenials will feel richer after receiving red pouches from 6 of their elders. They will be flush with cash and ready to buy a new car.

I thought the Chinese New Year red envelopes are usually token amounts: $100-$200? Is this different in the Chinese upper-middle class?

 

[nativewolf]

nailed it.

Yeah Cramer is a moron and deserves no respect.

I realize I call out morons a LOT but that's because most people who are thrust into the public eye are morons. I'm not actually just negative on everybody.

Having met him a few times I have to completely disagree. He's an entertainer, heart in the right place sort of guy. Entertaining is what he does and why he is currently paid. He found he made more money and had more fun doing this.

That said, he's very warm and approachable person that will sit for hours with audiences after an event answering every single f'ing stupid question about every stock/trend that is out there. He does it with sincerity and intelligence. No idiot there and certainly not a message board flamer. Is he the best investor ever, nope. The worse? better than lots of ex goldman types.

He's not the best stock picker, especially after 2000. He's very picky about having his past bad stock picks brought up, like many with egos. I would never buy or sell anything because of Cramer, but he's entertaining.

 

[KarenRei]

Speaking of Q4 deliveries, the Netherlands has broken its all-time record already

What a monster quarter there.

 

[ReflexFunds]

So yesterday Tesla was still feeding farther away U.S. markets before starting the California end of quarter madness?

Also, what are 'stealths' - stealth deliveries? Stealth cars?

These are the LR AWD cars with software unlocked P level acceleration (3.2 second 0–60 mph) and I think also Track Mode.

These cars come at a $2k premium to LR AWD. I think Tesla has been trading a large % of LR AWD customers up to Stealth P this quarter.
Tesla's plan has been to mostly only hold Stealth cars in inventory, so they call up people who have AWD orders and say something along the lines of "we've got a great deal for you, we've just received some Stealth Ps in inventory for just $2k more than your AWD order and these are available for delivery this week. Otherwise you may be waiting another month for your AWD delivery. "

 

[lklundin]

More money to be made simply being long TSLA.

It appears that people actually experienced in short selling would do both, i.e. short sell Porsche (i.e. VW) and buy TSLA for the proceeds (minus the premiums on the short sale) - in the belief that this would outperform (additional) TSLA shares bought on margin.

Not that I would trust myself to go there.

 

[lklundin]

Never liked the guy... don't like him now.

That does not have to be important. Just like technical analysis is utter nonsense, it can still influence the market because some traders believe in it. So can a nonsensical TV personality like Jim Cramer.

 

[lklundin]

Why do you say this? Where will they put all the MIC Model 3s when the parking lots at GF3 are full? There are still 20 days left in Q4.

The MIC Model 3s are believed to be transported out to their point of sale, i.e. the relevant service/delivery center.

Strangely, the short sellers on Twitter are not posting counts of Tesla's on parking lots at Chinese service/delivery centers.

But the change of colors of the Model 3s parked at GF3 together with transports leaving is clear evidence that cars are being moved.

 

[EV Promoter]

I give reasonable odds to the powertrain and control/display systems being adapted from the Roadster project (double stack battery, 3 motors, etc...), and that the 620 mile range may have been calibrated for the Roadster's energy usage, not the truck.

We know the Roadster is rated for ~600 miles with it's doublestack 200kWh pack. Given that a 100kWh pack is the largest currently has in it's productions stable, it would seem odd for something with the CdA/weight/tires of the truck to have similar range unless it was a substantially larger pack. And that seems a but unlikely given they were rushing to build it within the last few weeks before the unveiling.

Your assumption is that +600 miles for the Roadster and 500 for the CT are both real predicted numbers.

But if by chance they were both cautious number, as it could be, this would be indication for a +700 miles for the Roadster and +600 for the CT.


Halves the 200 kWh-700 miles for the Roadster, it would give 350 miles with 100 kWh, not at all unreasonable.
Halves the 200 kWh-600 miles for the CT, it gives 300 miles for a 100 kWh to compare with Model X LR Raven - 325 miles

 

[Nakata]

Speaking of Q4 deliveries, the Netherlands has broken its all-time record already

View attachment 487374

What a monster quarter there.

The funny thing is that the surge is just starting.
People are hearing from Lease companies that the bulk of deliveries will be between 20 and 31 of December.

Also people some people who have ordered a SR+ and were promised their car would be delivered before the end of the year are being told that this will not be possible.

They get offered the following options.
- cancel order.
- get SR+ delivered in Q1 2020
- get a LR this year.

 

[EV Promoter]

Corrected:
Porsche Taycan Turbo Range Tester Much Higher Than In EPA Independent Test

Or much lower, like 40% of battery to do 17 miles of spirited driving , 20:24 min.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Johnna on Twitter

Someone posted their reservation number made recently, it's clocked over 1131. Looks like 11316, but can't be certain. Still, me thinks we're floating about 400-350k reservations.

 

[jw934]

Or much lower, like 40% of battery to do 17 miles of spirited driving , 20:24 min.

And right after video showed the 40% in 17 miles and the car having turned off the aircon to give juice to the motors, he said something like Porsche has taken him for a ride, but quickly correctly to Taycan. Funny !

 

[ReflexFunds]

"Automakers selling cars in the EU may face tougher CO2 emissions reduction targets after the European Commission signaled it will review goals already set for 2030.

The Commission will propose to revise by June 2021 legislation on CO2 emission standards for cars and vans "to ensure a clear pathway from 2025 onwards towards zero-emission mobility," it said in a document called the European Green Deal.

In April, the European Union passed legislation that mandates automakers selling cars in Europe to cut their average fleet CO2 emissions by 37.5 percent by 2030 to 60 grams per km relative to a 2021 baseline of 95 g/km. In 2018, emissions from new cars increased for the consecutive second year, rising to 120.4 g/km."

"She declined to comment on whether a 15 percent intermediate CO2 emissions reduction target for 2025 could also be reviewed."

"The Commission said it would consider including road transport in the European emissions trading scheme (ETS) already used by energy-intensive industries such as utilities, and steel and cement producers as a further tool to reduce CO2 output."

Europe may tighten CO2 emissions targets in 'Green Deal'

Naturally the German Auto lobby is opposing this. "There is the danger that the most stringent fleet emission targets worldwide could be tightened further, even though the current ones were only agreed last year," VDA President Bernhard Mattes said in a statement.

VW, BMW and Daimler. Your lobbying efforts speak louder than your concept cars and EV investments. As I've said before, I've seen absolutely no evidence any ICE OEM except BYD is pushing an EV transition any further than the minimum required to avoid emissions fines and EV quotas. Yes, they have all stepped up EV investments recently, but this is because the EU and China significantly stepped up their fleet emissions requirements, in-spite of the heavy ICE lobbying effort to prevent it.

 

[EinSV]

Tesla’s Cybertruck Dead Last In Truck Survey | OilPrice.com



The author here has a clear bias against Tesla, but misses the real issue here. About 44% of respondents would choose an electric truck from a new entrant over and electric truck from well established incumbents Ford and GM. This says truck buyers really do not see much brand value for incumbent when it comes to electric trucks.

This suggest that Ford and GM are vulnerable to losing half their truck market share as trucks electrify.

I'm not at all worried about Tesla. This question was predicated on assuming that all four trucks have similar specs. In all likelihood Tesla will have superior specs for the price. Thus, Tesla could pull much more than 20% of the electric pickup market. Additionally, the Cybertruck while have strong crossover appeal for SUV buyers.

Despite the author's attempt to spin this into a negative story for Tesla, Tesla is clearly competiting above weight. Ford and GM definitely should not sleep easy on this market research.

Great points. GM and Ford are not going to come remotely close to the Cybertruck specs — especially at the same price point. This survey is actually very encouraging.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Speaking of Q4 deliveries, the Netherlands has broken its all-time record already

View attachment 487374

What a monster quarter there.

Yeah!

Monday: 438
Tuesday: 511
Wednesday: 533

The trend is your friend.

I’m tripping over Model 3’s here in the low country. Not a rare sight to see 3 or 4 at the same time at a busy intersection.

And despite of the avalanche it’s still possible to get a service appointment within 5 to 12 days (!), depending on the chosen service center. Not that I need one

 

[Fact Checking]

Johnna on Twitter

Someone posted their reservation number made recently, it's clocked over 1131. Looks like 11316, but can't be certain. Still, me thinks we're floating about 400-350k reservations.

I agree that the reservation number is RN-113,16x,xxx. Considering that the 'offset' between posted RN's and the actual order rate is constant:

Which offset was caused by the order system overload technical difficulties in the first couple of hours, resulting in duplicate orders and cancellation - that offset has not grown over the several days of time-span that Elon disclosed Cybertruck order levels.

The first reported order number was RN-112,745,000 about 5 minutes into the order process. The "offset" in the graph above is 30,000 ± 1,000, which means:

113,160,000 - 112,745,000 - 30,000 = 385,000 Cybertruck pre-orders on 2019/12/12​

With better than ±5k units of statistical confidence I believe. Even with a slower new order rate we should hit 400k Cybertruck pre-orders within a couple of days I believe.

 

[Fact Checking]

Speaking of Q4 deliveries, the Netherlands has broken its all-time record already

View attachment 487374

What a monster quarter there.

Registrations in the Netherlands are also rising as steeply as in the busiest last week of Q3, and there's still ~3 weeks to go in the quarter...

In Q4'2018 the last week was the busiest.