Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SpaceCash]

I am quick to forgive, so yeah. I embrace him. :-D

Call me naive or simple - I don't hold grudges, makes life a lot easier. "Life i like a mirror, smile and life smiles back at you"

Ok but you're still projecting; you're implying that I am holding a grudge, or that I'm perturbed by Cramer. I don't and I'm not. I just accurately see him for what he is, and know he is not worthy of respect.

One's experience of life WILL generally reflect your mindstate/spirit though. That is a fact

 

[Runarbt]

Ok but you're still projecting; you're implying that I am holding a grudge, or that I'm perturbed by Cramer. I don't and I'm not. I just accurately see him for what he is, and know he is not worthy of respect.

One's experience of life WILL generally reflect your mindstate/spirit though. That is a fact

I tried to crack a joke in my first post, sorry if I offended you.
You may call me simple - thats ok.

I appreciate having Jim on our side.

Moving on..

 

[jhm]

Tesla’s Cybertruck Dead Last In Truck Survey | OilPrice.com

According to the survey, which polled 1,100 respondents, if they had to buy GM’s upcoming electric truck, Ford’s electric F150, Rivian R1T, or the Cybertruck, which would they would choose, if all specs were similar.

Unfortunately for Tesla, the Cybertruck received the fewest votes, snagging 20% of the vote. GM’s truck came in first place, getting 29% of the vote. Ford’s EV truck was next at 27%, and Rivian—which doesn’t have near the brand name recognition that Tesla does--took home 24%.

The author here has a clear bias against Tesla, but misses the real issue here. About 44% of respondents would choose an electric truck from a new entrant over and electric truck from well established incumbents Ford and GM. This says truck buyers really do not see much brand value for incumbent when it comes to electric trucks.

This suggest that Ford and GM are vulnerable to losing half their truck market share as trucks electrify.

I'm not at all worried about Tesla. This question was predicated on assuming that all four trucks have similar specs. In all likelihood Tesla will have superior specs for the price. Thus, Tesla could pull much more than 20% of the electric pickup market. Additionally, the Cybertruck while have strong crossover appeal for SUV buyers.

Despite the author's attempt to spin this into a negative story for Tesla, Tesla is clearly competiting above weight. Ford and GM definitely should not sleep easy on this market research.

 

[kengchang]

Tesla’s Cybertruck Dead Last In Truck Survey | OilPrice.com



The author here has a clear bias against Tesla, but misses the real issue here. About 44% of respondents would choose an electric truck from a new entrant over and electric truck from well established incumbents Ford and GM. This says truck buyers really do not see much brand value for incumbent when it comes to electric trucks.

This suggest that Ford and GM are vulnerable to losing half their truck market share as trucks electrify.

I'm not at all worried about Tesla. This question was predicated on assuming that all four trucks have similar specs. In all likelihood Tesla will have superior specs for the price. Thus, Tesla could pull much more than 20% of the electric pickup market. Additionally, the Cybertruck while have strong crossover appeal for SUV buyers.

Despite the author's attempt to spin this into a negative story for Tesla, Tesla is clearly competiting above weight. Ford and GM definitely should not sleep easy on this market research.

20% market share for a company that has 0% right is great

 

[kengchang]

From someone picking up from Fremont today

We thought we would encounter a mad house and were very surprised to see that it was dead. There was one more person and he was not taking delivery. They told us that they just have stealths right now but that it is about to get crazy busy. The guy told us that they were so pumped and ready because they have been extremely bored lately.

 

[JustMe]

Tesla’s Cybertruck Dead Last In Truck Survey | OilPrice.com



The author here has a clear bias against Tesla, but misses the real issue here. About 44% of respondents would choose an electric truck from a new entrant over and electric truck from well established incumbents Ford and GM. This says truck buyers really do not see much brand value for incumbent when it comes to electric trucks.

This suggest that Ford and GM are vulnerable to losing half their truck market share as trucks electrify.

I'm not at all worried about Tesla. This question was predicated on assuming that all four trucks have similar specs. In all likelihood Tesla will have superior specs for the price. Thus, Tesla could pull much more than 20% of the electric pickup market. Additionally, the Cybertruck while have strong crossover appeal for SUV buyers.

Despite the author's attempt to spin this into a negative story for Tesla, Tesla is clearly competiting above weight. Ford and GM definitely should not sleep easy on this market research.

I agree. I am STUNNED that the Cybertruck pulled 20%. I would have guessed 5%, maybe, prior to the reveal. And then at the very moment of the reveal .. uh ... 1... percent? Of course like many people I had a change of heart.

The point is, 20% is already a major part of the market. Right up there with the big boys. We’re talking 300-500 thousand truck annual demand level for an electric triangle that virtually nobody has seen in person!

What an absurd headline!

 

[uselesslogin]

I agree. I am STUNNED that the Cybertruck pulled 20%. I would have guessed 5%, maybe, prior to the reveal. And then at the very moment of the reveal .. uh ... 1... percent? Of course like many people I had a change of heart.

The point is, 20% is already a major part of the market. Right up there with the big boys. We’re talking 300-500 thousand truck annual demand level for an electric triangle that virtually nobody has seen in person!

What an absurd headline!

And what does similar specs mean? Sure the last person who told me they are buying a Cybertruck would happily buy a “normal” looking truck instead but for the same price and specs but that does not and most likely will not exist.

 

[jhm]

Rivian is also punching above its weight with 24%. Respondents really like its styling, and I believe that is rightly deserved.

Tesla too could have designed a truck that looks like it belongs in an LL Bean catalogue. But it has chosen a very different path. I wonder if part of its consideration was to leave space for Rivian. Tesla's mission is served by allowing a new entrant a fighting chance to get a foothold. Tesla's competition is with the knuckledragging ICE makers.

 

[Tslynk67]

well eleventy-one is still a bit shy of being gross, but Porsche's exaggerations aren't shy at all

It was of course a Lord of the Rings reference - with Bilbo being eleventy-one and Frodo hitting 33 and 144 guests invited, which Bilbo referred to as a "gross" - considered extremely rude in hobbit Society!

So, yes, $TSLA... futures green this morning. There's a trade deadline looming, so whether that can gets kicked down the road, or not, will make some impact.

Sa this yesterday on Yahoo News feed - I've no idea who IBD are, but I find their concept of a "buy point" at $361.30 interesting - personally I found $180 a better "buy point", but what the hell do I know?

 

[RobStark]

Tesla’s Cybertruck Dead Last In Truck Survey | OilPrice.com



The author here has a clear bias against Tesla, but misses the real issue here. About 44% of respondents would choose an electric truck from a new entrant over and electric truck from well established incumbents Ford and GM. This says truck buyers really do not see much brand value for incumbent when it comes to electric trucks.

This suggest that Ford and GM are vulnerable to losing half their truck market share as trucks electrify.

I'm not at all worried about Tesla. This question was predicated on assuming that all four trucks have similar specs. In all likelihood Tesla will have superior specs for the price. Thus, Tesla could pull much more than 20% of the electric pickup market. Additionally, the Cybertruck while have strong crossover appeal for SUV buyers.

Despite the author's attempt to spin this into a negative story for Tesla, Tesla is clearly competiting above weight. Ford and GM definitely should not sleep easy on this market research.

There are two incorrect premises to this survey. One is that " all trucks have similar specs."

The other is "if they had to buy an electric truck." Customers don't "have to."

A large percentage of customers will continue to buy ICE trucks because " if I had to tow 30k lbs across America" gasoline/diesel is much superior. People will go a long way to rationalize not changing.

 

[Tslynk67]

I like how they pretend they had no idea what the range or efficiency would be. Its all a big black box, apparently. So, being smart that way, the preemptively hired some folks to tell them what the efficiency of their car would be. Which was still less than what they had been planning on, so it was a bit disappointing, but...

really? really? really??!?!?

I've this really radical idea, bear with me... How about charging the car to full capacity, then driving it until the battery is almost empty and seeing how far it goes? Do that a few times with different temperatures and weather, some inclines, declines. Might give a hint to range?

Nah, I know, crazy idea!

 

[MC3OZ]

Uh.. What? The entire month of January this year most of China will be impossible to do anything. CNY in China is much more disruptive to the flow of daily life than Thanksgiving and Christmas combined.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/lunar-new-year-travel-rush-2019/index.html

If they hit the ground running with deliveries early in Jan 2020 they can deliver before the start of CNY.

"This year, Lunar New Year falls on February 5."

Most probably there is a really busy period 2 weeks either side of Feb 5 not many deliveries in those 2 weeks.

 

[Tslynk67]

Watch Ford F-150 4x4 Lose In Tug Of War Battle To Tesla Model X

Looks like just Small Brother is enough ....

Video is about 7 minutes too long... tug (careful...) starts at 4:30 - clearly a 4x4 truck this time, although I get the impression he didn't hit the gas until after the guy in the Tesla. Well probably did, but we all know how slow these ICE are to put the power on.

What would be cool would be to allow the ICE a head-start and have it pulling the MX backwards, then the MX hits the "gas" and reverses the situation. That would be a total body-slam.

 

[RobStark]

from the Autolist survey according to teslarati

Tesla Cybertruck comes in dead last against GM, Ford and Rivian in consumer survey

"Respondents who have owned pickups before seemed the most averse to the Cybertruck, with 35% choosing GM’s electric truck as their top choice, 28% choosing the F-150 Electric, 23% opting for the Rivian R1T, and only 14% selecting the Cybertruck. Among respondents who were non-truck owners, the results were flipped, with the Cybertruck being most popular with 25.8% of respondents’ vote, the Rivian R1T getting 24.8%, and the two EV trucks from Ford and GM receiving 24.7% each."

On the night after CT reveal I posted my read was about ~10% of people on truck,hunting,conservative political forums were positive on CT. That jives with 14% of all truck owners having a positive impression of CT. Non hunting liberals also buy some trucks.

Although mainly conquest buys from Civic,Prius,Corolla, Ridgeline owners may be financial success for Tesla if Tesla/Rivian/Lordstown Motors can't convert a vast majority of current ICE truck buyers then that is not mission success.

 

[MC3OZ]

There are two incorrect premises to this survey. One is that " all trucks have similar specs."

The other is "if they had to buy an electric truck." Customers don't "have to."

A large percentage of customers will continue to buy ICE trucks because " if I had to tow 30k lbs across America" gasoline/diesel is much superior. People will go a long way to rationalize not changing.

Cybertruck is a slow burner, there will definitely be an early adopter phase, as you say, some will rule out being early adopters, others will not.

Demand will be adequate, for 1-3 years, then build to higher level once if becomes for familiar and the wider transition to EVs takes hold, by that time Tesla will have a mature refined product with a good track record and will be able to scale production. as needed.

Some of the current hype will die down Tesla will have a wider portfolio of vehicles available..so CT reservations might not covert to sales in extremely high numbers initially... but overall it will be a success.and ultimately one day no one will want to buy an ICE truck..

 

[Fact Checking]

From someone picking up from Fremont today

We thought we would encounter a mad house and were very surprised to see that it was dead. There was one more person and he was not taking delivery. They told us that they just have stealths right now but that it is about to get crazy busy. The guy told us that they were so pumped and ready because they have been extremely bored lately.​

So yesterday Tesla was still feeding farther away U.S. markets before starting the California end of quarter madness?

Also, what are 'stealths' - stealth deliveries? Stealth cars?

 

[TradingInvest]

Rivian is also punching above its weight with 24%. Respondents really like its styling, and I believe that is rightly deserved.

Tesla too could have designed a truck that looks like it belongs in an LL Bean catalogue. But it has chosen a very different path. I wonder if part of its consideration was to leave space for Rivian. Tesla's mission is served by allowing a new entrant a fighting chance to get a foothold. Tesla's competition is with the knuckledragging ICE makers.

I think the main reason for Cybertruck's shape is to reduce air resistance. The front is easy, the back is really difficult. They have to cover the back to reduce drag. That lead to the sloped shape.

All future electric trucks have to have this shape, or they have to use a much larger battery to achieve the same range.

 

[Tslynk67]

CNBC - an hour ago:

Ha ha, he's totally come over to the light side, incredible! And his wife wants the solar roof too.

And as we all know, wifey is ALWAYS right, eh lads?

 

[mongo]

Rivian is also punching above its weight with 24%. Respondents really like its styling, and I believe that is rightly deserved.

Tesla too could have designed a truck that looks like it belongs in an LL Bean catalogue. But it has chosen a very different path. I wonder if part of its consideration was to leave space for Rivian. Tesla's mission is served by allowing a new entrant a fighting chance to get a foothold. Tesla's competition is with the knuckledragging ICE makers.

So, in terms of design influences:
Rivian: LL Bean
ICE: Jim Beam *
Tesla: I Beam

Spoiler: *

"A Family Of Its Own. Elegant. Smooth. Refined. Over 200** Years of History." - Current Google AdWords result.

Spoiler: **

Yes, the Model TT only came out in 1917, it's a joke.

Spoiler: ***

You can nest these tags really deep. Also, did you know Jim Beam is a subsidiary of Suntory Holdings of Osaka, Japan?

 

[Tslynk67]

Website is showing Q1 2020 delivery still

View attachment 487264​

Good idea to keep the deliveries until January to boost the traditionally poor sales at that time of year.

However, I think it would be great to deliver a few 100's in Q4 so there can be a nice announcement. Could be a good catalyst IMO.

In other news, with NL acting like a singularity for Model 3, those that are escalating the event-horizon and making it to NO are still predominantly LR's with a few P's and the occasional SR+. This implies to me that there's likely a huge backlog for SR+ in Norway, which could also be a boost in Q1.