Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

No doubt there will be a number of people with that point of view--at least in the beginning. However, it won't take a great deal of Cybertruck sales to take the profit out of making ICE light trucks. And you're not going to pull 30k lbs. with an F150 gas or diesel either, which is the Cybertruck market.

Yeah. Many will whine that the CT can't tow 30k pounds, but they aren't buying trucks that can pull that because they can't afford them.

 

[jerry33]

from the Autolist survey according to teslarati

Tesla Cybertruck comes in dead last against GM, Ford and Rivian in consumer survey

"Respondents who have owned pickups before seemed the most averse to the Cybertruck, with 35% choosing GM’s electric truck as their top choice, 28% choosing the F-150 Electric, 23% opting for the Rivian R1T, and only 14% selecting the Cybertruck. Among respondents who were non-truck owners, the results were flipped, with the Cybertruck being most popular with 25.8% of respondents’ vote, the Rivian R1T getting 24.8%, and the two EV trucks from Ford and GM receiving 24.7% each."

On the night after CT reveal I posted my read was about ~10% of people on truck,hunting,conservative political forums were positive on CT. That jives with 14% of all truck owners having a positive impression of CT. Non hunting liberals also buy some trucks.

Although mainly conquest buys from Civic,Prius,Corolla, Ridgeline owners may be financial success for Tesla if Tesla/Rivian/Lordstown Motors can't convert a vast majority of current ICE truck buyers then that is not mission success.

The two questions are:
1. How soon after the reveal was this survey done? Most people take time to get used to a new design.
2. How were the respondents chosen?

 

[shootformoon]

If our mission is faster transition to electrified transportation in the next 10 years, I think most of these small startups do not matter. Reason is the far superior capital efficiency of tesla. The same $500B capital used by tesla will be much more efficient and produce much more cars than used by any combination of other producers.

from the Autolist survey according to teslarati

Tesla Cybertruck comes in dead last against GM, Ford and Rivian in consumer survey

"Respondents who have owned pickups before seemed the most averse to the Cybertruck, with 35% choosing GM’s electric truck as their top choice, 28% choosing the F-150 Electric, 23% opting for the Rivian R1T, and only 14% selecting the Cybertruck. Among respondents who were non-truck owners, the results were flipped, with the Cybertruck being most popular with 25.8% of respondents’ vote, the Rivian R1T getting 24.8%, and the two EV trucks from Ford and GM receiving 24.7% each."

On the night after CT reveal I posted my read was about ~10% of people on truck,hunting,conservative political forums were positive on CT. That jives with 14% of all truck owners having a positive impression of CT. Non hunting liberals also buy some trucks.

Although mainly conquest buys from Civic,Prius,Corolla, Ridgeline owners may be financial success for Tesla if Tesla/Rivian/Lordstown Motors can't convert a vast majority of current ICE truck buyers then that is not mission success.

 

[mongo]

More than exceeding their Q4 guidance of 360k, I would really like Tesla to post a Q4 profit (which will probably imply at least meeting their Q4 guidance anyway).

I am imagining that Elon Musk is with me here:
Elon Musk admits Tesla will have to turn a profit one day
(sorry for the non-primary source).

Given his Q2 prediction that Q4 would exceed Q3 in deliveries, that shouldn't be a problem.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Q2 2019 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

 

[jerry33]

2) A triangle is the strongest shape. That triangular shape, gives the exoskeleton enough strength, that it obviates the need for a truck frame. Obviously, this greatly reduce cost, extra unnecessary weight, and it worsens the ride.

Strictly speaking, the triangle is the most rigid shape. Strength depends on the material used and thickness of the material.

 

[Off Shore]

Nasdaq Futures flipped red, in case you're wondering why pre-market dropped a bit...

Wouldn't have anything to do with the ~9k shares (half of volume at that point) sold off?

 

[NakedLong]

2) A triangle is the strongest shape.

Not universally. Depends on the application, the material, the forces and directions relative to the body (compression/tension/sheer). Sometimes arches are better, sometimes spheroids, sometimes geodesic domes, sometimes tori looking something like this:

Why is a stellarator-type nuclear fusion reactor so oddly-shaped?

 

[Artful Dodger]

The author here has a clear bias against Tesla, but misses the real issue here. About 44% of respondents would choose an electric truck from a new entrant over and electric truck from well established incumbents Ford and GM.

From the 'Truck brands' survey:

if they had to buy GM’s upcoming electric truck, Ford’s electric F150, Rivian R1T, or the Cybertruck, which would they would choose, if all specs were similar.

Yeah, this article was a 'Push Poll', (just one slimey step above a N.Korean election). The problem with this article is Ford/Rivian/GMs e-Trucks are going to be NOWHERE near Tesla's spec for ANY of their range of Cybertrucks. NOR will their ICE trucks.

Specifically, the major's can't conpete with ANY of these Tesla specs: (which will only get better over the next 2-3 years until the launch)

• "value" - base features for comparables at the $40K price point
  
• "utility" - superior specs in all categories at the $50K price point
• "Supertrucks" - halo specs (F-150 Raptor) at the $70K price point

So yeah, this poll was at a "DeMuro" level of Deceptive...

Show me the million-mile powertrain, won't-rust-out, can't-dent-it ICE truck that the author thinks has similar specs today. Cybertrucks will still be mid-life and working on the farm 50 YEARS after their original purchase.

Cheers!

TL;dr no other trucks will have similar specs to Cybertruck, *including* Gas/Diesel

 

[Drax7]

The cars themselves are still the best advertisement. You can't know

Tesla’s Cybertruck Dead Last In Truck Survey | OilPrice.com



The author here has a clear bias against Tesla, but misses the real issue here. About 44% of respondents would choose an electric truck from a new entrant over and electric truck from well established incumbents Ford and GM. This says truck buyers really do not see much brand value for incumbent when it comes to electric trucks.

This suggest that Ford and GM are vulnerable to losing half their truck market share as trucks electrify.

I'm not at all worried about Tesla. This question was predicated on assuming that all four trucks have similar specs. In all likelihood Tesla will have superior specs for the price. Thus, Tesla could pull much more than 20% of the electric pickup market. Additionally, the Cybertruck while have strong crossover appeal for SUV buyers.

Despite the author's attempt to spin this into a negative story for Tesla, Tesla is clearly competiting above weight. Ford and GM definitely should not sleep easy on this market research.

the same hypothetical results would have applied in the case of the Apple iPhone versus Nokia Motorola and blackberry .

 

[KarenRei]

Not universally. Depends on the application, the material, the forces and directions relative to the body (compression/tension/sheer). Sometimes arches are better, sometimes spheroids, sometimes geodesic domes, sometimes tori looking something like this:

Why is a stellarator-type nuclear fusion reactor so oddly-shaped?

Heh, optimal shapes can get complicated surprisingly quickly. For example, for arches:

• Arch bearing only its own weight: catenary
• Arch of negligible mass bearing a constant load per unit ground length: parabola
• Arch bearing a location-varying weight, such as a level floor of location-varying thickness reaching down to the arch that's holding it up (e.g. hollow arch inscribed in a rectangular solid): no name for the formula
• All three of the above but in 3d (vaults): no names for the formulae; all are much more complicated than their arch counterparts

All of them look rather "archlike", but the shape of the curve varies.

I once worked out the optimal vault formula for bearing a level floor of varying thickness down to the vault, and it was this ridiculously long multipart formula involving a function I'd never heard of that's not part of most standard math libraries (I don't remember which one). I remember that its lower walls are more vertical than a catenary or parabola, and the top more level - which makes sense, since the outer walls (pushing in) bear more load than the top (pushing out), so the former should be steeper (deamplify the inward force) and the latter shallower (amplify the outward force).

As for triangles... it's not so much the specific shape that matters (can vary depending on the overall structure you're optimizing for) so much as it is how far it extends out of plane. Stress declines proportional to the square of the distance you extend out-of-plane, while deflection declines proportional to its cube. Think of the difference between standing on the middle of a propped-up 1x6 board when it's laying flat vs. when it's on it's edge; the former case will deflect like crazy, while in the latter case, you'll probably not even notice any deflection.

Traditional truck frames are planes. Resisting torsion is thus very difficult for them, and you have to use more mass of steel to do so. Cybertruck's triangular frame by contrast extends way out-of-plane.

 

[lklundin]

Deadline Approaches for Mark Spiegel’s January 2020 Puts –– Whole Mars Catalog

I feel I should help people like Mark BS part with their money.

Does anyone know of a EU broker that will allow a retailer to write (sell) cash covered puts?
- for a small number of contracts, like 100 - 500 TSLA.

 

[KarenRei]

I feel I should help people like Mark BS part with their money.

Does anyone know of a EU broker that will allow a retailer to write (sell) cash covered puts?
- for a small number of contracts, like 100 - 500 TSLA.

I'm more interested in Mark's more recent comments that he's short the stock and has started selling calls. That means that unless he actually meant "call spreads", they're uncovered. Selling uncovered calls into a rallying stock is a superb way to go bankrupt.

 

[skybluecgreen]

Your's is based on analysis/belief in company. IBD is based on TA of the charts

IBD is based on the principals of founder William O'Neil of which a basic tenet is to buy on strength rather than on weakness. This thinking is in the line of Jesse Livermore and is what people consider 'trend trading' or 'momentum' trading.

 

[humbaba]

He flipped for the right reasons both his daughter and wife told him to buy the car. If he had come up with this on his own, I'd worry. But the women in his life are probably much more reliable.

I'm with @SpaceCash on this one. His family is the excuse for the "flip." This is a tried and true tactic by the non-authentic. Perhaps my favorite was Woolley's use of his wife, crediting her with the realization that the dig had identified the biblical flood. It is an example of the "argument from innocence" and there's nothing innocent about it. But people use it because it evokes a response, just like it has in this forum.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, in terms of design influences:
Rivian: LL Bean
ICE: Jim Beam *
Tesla: I Beam

I think its more like:

Tesla: Rock
Rivian: Paper
ICE: Scissors

At least for the next few years (ie: Rivian won't sell in numbers like ICE). But Elon's has said they're prepared to release a more conventional looking truck post-Cybertruck (I think that'll be with the giant unibody die-casting machine but more time yet).

Cybertruck is all about getting to market as quickly as possible with the best combination of ICE melting EV features, powered from the Tesla parts bin. Think VW Beetle => VW Transporter circa 1950:

Tesla gets an instant 2x increase in total addressable market for next-to-nothing in CapEx (no new factory required). Its a no-brainer to do Cybertruck ASAP. Fancy will come later, once Tesla creates the new manufacturing tech.

Cheers!

 

[humbaba]

After humbling ICE trucks and sports cars at races and towing competitions the last bastion for gas-fueled car battles will be monster truck rallies.

I made the mistake of sharing the video of the model X pulling the Ford. The guy was triggered and ranted about how "of course" an electric would win that because "it has low range torque" but EVs have no range and claimed, in essence, that real men have to have gas or diesel. He's been quiet about the importance of the green hell after coming to the realization that Tesla wasn't fooling and that they really were going to post a great time. He still falls back on Porsche's Taycan time being official (spoiler: it isn't).

The one other area they have left is top fuel -- though maybe a superultramega capacitor could take that over as well. But it wouldn't have the ear damaging effect which is at least as important as anything else (obligations were used to force me to have my hearing further damaged when I got drug to a top fuel race).

 

[humbaba]

That camping add-on doesn’t provide any isolation to keep you warm in Siberia.

Don't go in the winter? July average is over 60 Fahrenheit.

 

[Stretch2727]

And toothbrush boy never gives up.

Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter

His Jan 2020 220 puts must be worthless so I doubt he has much of a position TSLA.

 

[humbaba]

Anyone here has an estimate when model 3 will surpass the Leaf as best selling EV ever (talking about total numbers sold)?

Or has it already happened?

Should be 2020 first quarter. Probably won't have the numbers to prove it as they are not released monthly, but it seems likely to be done by end of Jan 2020

 

[RFernatt]

I'm more interested in Mark's more recent comments that he's short the stock and has started selling calls. That means that unless he actually meant "call spreads", they're uncovered. Selling uncovered calls into a rallying stock is a superb way to go bankrupt.

He really likes the Qoolaid and I say drink up!