Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kbM3]

I think the main reason for Cybertruck's shape is to reduce air resistance. The front is easy, the back is really difficult. They have to cover the back to reduce drag. That lead to the sloped shape.

All future electric trucks have to have this shape, or they have to use a much larger battery to achieve the same range.

Besides aerodynamics, there are two other primary reasons for the shape of the cyber truck:

1) There is zero reason for an electric pick up truck to have a fake boxy front engine compartment. This steals space from the passenger compartment, and compromises the view, in addition to the better aero you mentioned.

2) A triangle is the strongest shape. That triangular shape, gives the exoskeleton enough strength, that it obviates the need for a truck frame. Obviously, this greatly reduce cost, extra unnecessary weight, and it worsens the ride.

I really do not see any other choice for other manufacturers, other than to copy this design almost exactly. It has far too many benefits.

 

[kbM3]

Wow! Elon considering launching Cybertruck on Starship.

Imagine if it is on the first orbital (or other significant) flight and returned from orbit.

Elon’s SpaceX gives Tesla such an unbelievable marketing edge. I imagine every other automotive marketing department screaming out in frustration

Tesla Cybertruck on SpaceX Starship? It’s more likely than you think | Inverse

 

[LN1_Casey]

With better than ±5k units of statistical confidence I believe. Even with a slower new order rate we should hit 400k Cybertruck pre-orders within a couple of days I believe.

I wonder if Overlord Musk will post the reservation number as a part of the Q4 results. And how much a 400k+ total will hurt the Shorting nay sayers who disparaged against the Cybertruck due to it's ugliness. It is only $100, and there are people who have multiple reserved but only intend to purchase one, and not everyone will actually buy one, but those combined would not equal 400k.

 

[kbM3]

Cybertruck is a slow burner, there will definitely be an early adopter phase, as you say, some will rule out being early adopters, others will not.

Demand will be adequate, for 1-3 years, then build to higher level once if becomes for familiar and the wider transition to EVs takes hold, by that time Tesla will have a mature refined product with a good track record and will be able to scale production. as needed.

Some of the current hype will die down Tesla will have a wider portfolio of vehicles available..so CT reservations might not covert to sales in extremely high numbers initially... but overall it will be a success.and ultimately one day no one will want to buy an ICE truck..

I agree, but hopefully there’s a potential upside to your conservative mainstream uptake theory. Cybertruck might just be in the news enough, and other arenas, to become familiar enough for the strangeness effect to have mostly worn off by release. And hopefully Superchargers, including pass throughs, and service centers are far more plentiful, and EVs in general are more mainstream, so that conservative adoption occurs a littler more rapidly.

 

[jerry33]

It is (or at least could be)pushing through the air. You’re just looking at the wrong reference frame. It has to push through the air in order to not slow down/go backwards.

I would sure hate to be a technician in that place. A car not strapped down on a dyno and the wind pushes it off. Ouch!

 

[Nocturnal]

Up $3.08 in pre-market. That's nice to wake up to.

I wonder if Overlord Musk will post the reservation number as a part of the Q4 results. And how much a 400k+ total will hurt the Shorting nay sayers who disparaged against the Cybertruck due to it's ugliness. It is only $100, and there are people who have multiple reserved but only intend to purchase one, and not everyone will actually buy one, but those combined would not equal 400k.

Those nuts think that it's just $100 so everyone will cancel, they just ordered to be cool or that those are fake reservations because of the couple people who were charged twice.

 

[lklundin]

I’m starting to lean this way too. Tesla has more to gain by boosting Q1 versus over delivering on Q4.
Plus they never promised any MIC deliveries this month. I only see them delivering from GF3 in December if they absolutely have to to reach 360k for the year.

More than exceeding their Q4 guidance of 360k, I would really like Tesla to post a Q4 profit (which will probably imply at least meeting their Q4 guidance anyway).

I am imagining that Elon Musk is with me here:
Elon Musk admits Tesla will have to turn a profit one day
(sorry for the non-primary source).

 

[STARR X]

Yeah yeah yeah, that's not even what I said. I spent 5 years living in Hollywood and I know what I'm talking about here.
Cramer absolutely, for sure, without a doubt, postured as an unmitigated full-blown TSLA bear for a very long time.
Now he's done an about face.
If you rush to embrace him now, you're a simple person.

What TSLAQ just doesn’t understand is that the narrative started to change 4 to 6 months ago. And it should stay on this more positive narrative for a while.

 

[jerry33]

You do know what they say about people who believe everyone around them are morons, and they are the only one sane? ;-)

Agreed with the first part. Not so sure about the second.

 

[elasalle]

Ha ha, he's totally come over to the light side, incredible! And his wife wants the solar roof too.

And as we all know, wifey is ALWAYS right, eh lads?

Isn't Wall Street Expert making decisions based on Wifey and Daughter an Oxymoron?

 

[elasalle]

Deadline Approaches for Mark Spiegel’s January 2020 Puts –– Whole Mars Catalog

Lottery*(-1) = Bnkwptcy

 

[jerry33]

Rivian is also punching above its weight with 24%. Respondents really like its styling, and I believe that is rightly deserved.

Tesla too could have designed a truck that looks like it belongs in an LL Bean catalogue. But it has chosen a very different path. I wonder if part of its consideration was to leave space for Rivian. Tesla's mission is served by allowing a new entrant a fighting chance to get a foothold. Tesla's competition is with the knuckledragging ICE makers.

More likely, it's because a truck that looks like Rivian (which I think looks like an Edsel), will cost like a Rivian, and perform like a Rivian. Tesla wanted to make something better and lower cost. As shown, the Cybertruck is far more versatile than a conventional truck. Those grooves in the bed and sides allow for a host of customizations.

 

[winfield100]

It is so reassuring to know that our resident AI has a sense of humor!

There’s only one?

 

[elasalle]

It was of course a Lord of the Rings reference - with Bilbo being eleventy-one and Frodo hitting 33 and 144 guests invited, which Bilbo referred to as a "gross" - considered extremely rude in hobbit Society!

So, yes, $TSLA... futures green this morning. There's a trade deadline looming, so whether that can gets kicked down the road, or not, will make some impact.

Sa this yesterday on Yahoo News feed - I've no idea who IBD are, but I find their concept of a "buy point" at $361.30 interesting - personally I found $180 a better "buy point", but what the hell do I know?

View attachment 487361

Your's is based on analysis/belief in company. IBD is based on TA of the charts

 

[jhm]

There are two incorrect premises to this survey. One is that " all trucks have similar specs."

The other is "if they had to buy an electric truck." Customers don't "have to."

A large percentage of customers will continue to buy ICE trucks because " if I had to tow 30k lbs across America" gasoline/diesel is much superior. People will go a long way to rationalize not changing.

Yeah, this is a forced choice question. Presumably a good survey would have asked other questions to get at interest levels in buying an electric truck. The reporter decided not to include this. Hmm, wonder why... perhaps I should check it out.

 

[elasalle]

gygku


2020 it is Jan 25th. A very early Lunar new year to be honest.

Tesla is probably preparing for the rush after Lunar new year. All the millenials will feel richer after receiving red pouches from 6 of their elders. They will be flush with cash and ready to buy a new car. Tesla has all of Feb and March for delivery without having to worry about having production and delivery interrupted in the middle of the quarter.

Deliver in Q4, unless there are some more permit issues or it is for padding of Q1

If in Q1, due to padding, no reason why deliveries should not begin on Jan1st. M3s can then be the talk of families during Lunar festivities. Also what better way for a city transplant to show off his success then by visiting his native in his new M3

 

[jerry33]

A large percentage of customers will continue to buy ICE trucks because " if I had to tow 30k lbs across America" gasoline/diesel is much superior. People will go a long way to rationalize not changing.

No doubt there will be a number of people with that point of view--at least in the beginning. However, it won't take a great deal of Cybertruck sales to take the profit out of making ICE light trucks. And you're not going to pull 30k lbs. with an F150 gas or diesel either, which is the Cybertruck market.

 

[elasalle]

Wow! Elon considering launching Cybertruck on Starship.

Imagine if it is on the first orbital (or other significant) flight and returned from orbit.

Elon’s SpaceX gives Tesla such an unbelievable marketing edge. I imagine every other automotive marketing department screaming out in frustration

Tesla Cybertruck on SpaceX Starship? It’s more likely than you think | Inverse

So every Tesla advertisement needs a real powerful telescope

 

[Tslynk67]

Nasdaq Futures flipped red, in case you're wondering why pre-market dropped a bit...

 

[NakedLong]

Having met him a few times I have to completely disagree. He's an entertainer, heart in the right place sort of guy. Entertaining is what he does and why he is currently paid. He found he made more money and had more fun doing this.

That said, he's very warm and approachable person that will sit for hours with audiences after an event answering every single f'ing stupid question about every stock/trend that is out there. He does it with sincerity and intelligence. No idiot there and certainly not a message board flamer. Is he the best investor ever, nope. The worse? better than lots of ex goldman types.

He's not the best stock picker, especially after 2000. He's very picky about having his past bad stock picks brought up, like many with egos. I would never buy or sell anything because of Cramer, but he's entertaining.

Have you ever tried to watch an episode of Mad Money? It's aimed at 2 year olds I'm convinced. So if you are a 2yr old I guess you can call him entertaining, and like listening to all those stupid buttons and sound effects. Also, considering that video on him talking about how he did stock manipulation, he really is a criminal regardless of his stance pro or against Tesla. His heart is definitely not in the right place. All he did was shift to the media side of stock manipulation at CNBC.